To Infinity and Beyond - Becoming a Better DopeyBadger (Comments Welcome)

[DopeyBadger]

Haunted Hustle HM Weather: 5 days to go!





Start at 9am and end at 11am
9/11/19 - T+D of 100-104 (adj of 0.5%), 62% cloudy, 41% chance of rain, 10mph SSE wind
9/14/19 - T+D of 101-107 (adj of 0.5%), 52% cloudy, 24% chance of rain, 10mph SSE wind
9/15/19 - T+D of 88-99 (adj of 0.0%), 23% cloudy, 5% chance of rain, 6mph SE wind
9/16/19 - T+D of 89-101 (adj of 0.0%), 28% cloudy, 5% chance of rain, 5mph SE wind

Looking good.

 

[michigandergirl]

Oh man, too much math...

I think I'm going to pass? That's the smart thing to do right?

 

[MissLiss279]

I’m getting a little worried about this weather... I’m afraid you’re going to think it’s too nice to pass up running fast...

 

[DopeyBadger]

Oh man, too much math...

I think I'm going to pass? That's the smart thing to do right?

That depends on how confident you'll be in your marathon prediction. You currently sit at +20 seconds with a 15 second bonus.

-If you nail the marathon prediction exactly, then you would end the game at +5 seconds (+20 - 15 sec bonus) assuming you played in no more HM games. If anyone is closer to zero than +5 seconds after bonuses have been used then you lose. If someone is tied with you at +5 seconds, then the game defaults to without bonus. So your +20 seconds would be advantageous there.

-If you come close to the marathon prediction but are off by 30 seconds, then you would end the game at +35 seconds (+20 +30 - 15 sec bonus). If anyone is closer to zero than +35 seconds after bonuses have been used then you lose. This is where the extra bonus time from playing the other HMs becomes advantageous. Because if you played Haunted Hustle and Madison, then you'd earn another +30 seconds in bonus. Which then means you'd end the game at +5 seconds (+20 +30 -45 sec bonus).

So it comes down to the marathon prediction and how close you are. The bonuses give you a buffer to play with. But if two people are equally close in the end of the game after bonuses, then it comes down to which of the two is better without the bonus.

The negative to playing is that you might get further away than +20 seconds which you currently sit at. But you've still got two rounds of predictions remaining to close the gap (Madison and Disney).

 

[DopeyBadger]

I’m getting a little worried about this weather... I’m afraid you’re going to think it’s too nice to pass up running fast...

Because of the partial trail surface, I am not bringing/wearing my Next% shoes. So regardless of the weather, I'm still not planning on running fast. But I certainly don't disagree with you.... that weather forecast looks darn near perfect.... T+D under 100.... little wind.... partial clouds.... ..... history of not being able to not race a race....

 

[tigger536]

1:37:06

 

[DopeyBadger]

2019 DopeyBadger Racing Season Prediction Contest - Race #4 (Haunted Hustle HM)

Just a reminder, you have until Friday at 9am to submit a guess.

Yet to submit

@Sleepless Knight
@surfde22
@cburnett11
Me
@QueenFernando
@ZellyB

 

[SheHulk]

I have a stupid training question that I'll ask here instead of DMing you because other people may have done the same thing. Probably not though
I can't believe I did this but I misremembered what my tempo run was supposed to be today. I was supposed to run 2 mile tempo intervals but instead I ran 2.5 mile intervals. It was only 2 of them so only a mile extra run, but it was a tempo run not easy. No wonder I was tired at the end. Do I have to adjust the rest of the week? This is an "easy" fall back week for me with runs at LR or easier pace for the rest of the week, so I was thinking I should just forge ahead as if I had done the run correctly. Is that right? I have never made the mistake of running too *long*, it's like forgetting to eat a meal, it just is not something I would ever do.

 

[DopeyBadger]

I have a stupid training question that I'll ask here instead of DMing you because other people may have done the same thing. Probably not though
I can't believe I did this but I misremembered what my tempo run was supposed to be today. I was supposed to run 2 mile tempo intervals but instead I ran 2.5 mile intervals. It was only 2 of them so only a mile extra run, but it was a tempo run not easy. No wonder I was tired at the end. Do I have to adjust the rest of the week? This is an "easy" fall back week for me with runs at LR or easier pace for the rest of the week, so I was thinking I should just forge ahead as if I had done the run correctly. Is that right? I have never made the mistake of running too *long*, it's like forgetting to eat a meal, it just is not something I would ever do.

So it's important to look at within the workout, within the week, and the weeks around it:



(kind of small)

So this week represents a "medium" week and not a recovery week. The % easy was 87% and the last few weeks was 91, 92, and 88. If I change the workout from a 2x2 mile to a 2x2.5 mile, it moves the % easy to 84. So with these things in consideration, I'd say you're still safe. The % easy is still not a huge jump from previously and the slight increase in duration isn't impacting the purpose of the week (recovery vs medium vs peak). The next M Tempo is 3x2 mile so you're still fine to progress to the next once since that will be harder.

So all in all, no harm no foul. I'd say continue as normal.

 

[SheHulk]

So it's important to look at within the workout, within the week, and the weeks around it:

View attachment 444813

(kind of small)

So this week represents a "medium" week and not a recovery week. The % easy was 87% and the last few weeks was 91, 92, and 88. If I change the workout from a 2x2 mile to a 2x2.5 mile, it moves the % easy to 84. So with these things in consideration, I'd say you're still safe. The % easy is still not a huge jump from previously and the slight increase in duration isn't impacting the purpose of the week (recovery vs medium vs peak). The next M Tempo is 3x2 mile so you're still fine to progress to the next once since that will be harder.

So all in all, no harm no foul. I'd say continue as normal.

OK thanks!

 

[DopeyBadger]

Haunted Hustle HM Weather: 4 days to go!






Start at 9am and end at 11am
9/11/19 - T+D of 100-104 (adj of 0.5%), 62% cloudy, 41% chance of rain, 10mph SSE wind
9/14/19 - T+D of 101-107 (adj of 0.5%), 52% cloudy, 24% chance of rain, 10mph SSE wind
9/15/19 - T+D of 88-99 (adj of 0.0%), 23% cloudy, 5% chance of rain, 6mph SE wind
9/16/19 - T+D of 89-101 (adj of 0.0%), 28% cloudy, 5% chance of rain, 5mph SE wind
9/17/19 - T+D of 87-98 (adj of 0.0%), 51% cloudy, 12% chance of rain, 4mph SE wind

Just keeps looking better as the week progresses....

 

[DopeyBadger]

Almost to the end of the flag football season. One make-up game left possibly next Mon/Wed. We're 1-5 so far this season (only win was the first game with the 4th down end of game stop). But the kids have had fun and I feel like learned some valuable lessons. I presented them with trophies at last night's game in case the weather prevented our last one. Their faces were worth every penny I spent on them. Here's G's photo from earlier in the season.

 

[DopeyBadger]

2019 DopeyBadger Racing Season Prediction Contest - Race #4 (Haunted Hustle HM)

My Guess!

This one was much easier than DoLittle. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. The Garmin VO2max with adjustment played well in terms of determining my predicted race pace. This time around is a touch different since I'm running this as a LR w/ FF effort instead of a race effort. But not different enough that I need to reinvent the wheel again.

I evaluated the Haunted Hustle HM course.



Miles 3-4, 6-7, 7-8, and 8-9 appear to be where the hills are. Otherwise, it's mostly flat. Using this runner's GAP, I was able to roughly ascertain the effect of each mile difference from flat terrain.




I then combined the VO2max data, HR data, and GAP data to create a goal pace range for each mile.




I simply took each VDOT - 6 points (based on my history with my Garmin VO2max values and actual VDOT performance) to get the predicted paces for LR, M Tempo, and HM Tempo. So the VO2max of 58 currently on my watch is using the VDOT 52 values. I adjusted the goal paces down by 5 seconds to account for the hills, but then my Garmin VO2max is based on training on hills so I think it's a justified move. Then each individual mile is based on the predicted GAP and the elevation gains from each subsequent mile. So mile 6-7 is suppose to be a +18 per GAP, and thus the equivalent effort to a 7:35 mile is a 7:53 mile. The result is an undulated pace but what should be an equal effort throughout. I'll print off the range from Garmin 60 to 58 and attempt to be between those mile times for each mile. The three red miles are the uphills and the orange miles are when the gloves come off and the goal is HM to M Tempo.

Since I had trouble reading the time ranges during the DoLittle, I'm increasing the font size and placing the 1st and 2nd half on two different wrist bands. The hope is that double the bands on my wrist won't cause an issue, but now allow me to better read the ranges.

For my guess, I'm going to say I do well holding back but run a touch faster than the last two training runs and use the 58 value. So that would be a 1:39:27 HM (assuming the race measures 13.0 miles per GPS and not 13.11 miles). My current "cumulative time off" is -35 seconds (so I've so far guessed 35 seconds too fast). So 1:39:27 + 35 seconds is a final guess of 1:40:02.

But...... then.... there's always that weather.....

 

[SarahDisney]

I was interested to see how you were going to do the prediction. Looks like you are going to at least plan to hold back ... I'm interested to see how race day actually goes, especially with this weather.
(Please hold back on race day because that's what I was assuming with my prediction)

 

[DopeyBadger]

I was interested to see how you were going to do the prediction. Looks like you are going to at least plan to hold back ... I'm interested to see how race day actually goes, especially with this weather.
(Please hold back on race day because that's what I was assuming with my prediction)

Sticking to the plan... until I don't... but I will... or will I...

 

[DopeyBadger]

2019 DopeyBadger Racing Season Prediction Contest - Race #4 (Haunted Hustle HM)

My Guess!

Final Predictions

1:34:15 - @steph0808
1:36:15 - Gigi
1:36:20 - @FFigawi
1:36:21 - @SheHulk
1:37:00 - @Jules76126
1:37:06 - @tigger536
1:37:13 - @KSellers88
1:37:25 - @lhermiston
1:37:37 - @roxymama
1:38:16 - @TheHamm
1:38:18 - @PkbaughAR
1:38:30 - @DisMatt0483
1:39:00 - @bovie
1:39:40 - @disneygpa
1:39:42 - @DerTobi75
1:39:52 - @canglim52
1:40:02 - Me
1:41:41 - @mrsg00fy
1:42:25 - @MissLiss279
1:42:46 - @SarahDisney
1:43:00 - @Chaitali
1:43:39 - @TeeterTots
1:47:00 - Steph


Passing

@flav
@JAMIESMITH
@michigandergirl


Did not submit

@Sleepless Knight
@surfde22
@cburnett11
@QueenFernando
@ZellyB

Good luck everyone!

 

[DopeyBadger]

Haunted Hustle HM Weather: 3 days to go!




Start at 9am and end at 11am
9/11/19 - T+D of 100-104 (adj of 0.5%), 62% cloudy, 41% chance of rain, 10mph SSE wind
9/14/19 - T+D of 101-107 (adj of 0.5%), 52% cloudy, 24% chance of rain, 10mph SSE wind
9/15/19 - T+D of 88-99 (adj of 0.0%), 23% cloudy, 5% chance of rain, 6mph SE wind
9/16/19 - T+D of 89-101 (adj of 0.0%), 28% cloudy, 5% chance of rain, 5mph SE wind
9/17/19 - T+D of 87-98 (adj of 0.0%), 51% cloudy, 12% chance of rain, 4mph SE wind
9/18/19 - T+D of 85-96 (adj of 0.0%), 35% cloudy, 8% chance of rain, 2mph E wind

Looking good!

 

[DopeyBadger]

Unofficial 1:36:13

 

[FFigawi]

Unofficial 1:36:13

Great result for you, but of no help to me

 

[avondale]

Unofficial 1:36:13

Congratulations! Good time. Looks like G knew what she was doing with her guess...