To Infinity and Beyond - Becoming a Better DopeyBadger (Comments Welcome)

In my humble opinion I’d say hip flexibility over hamstring flexibility. Kipchoge can’t even touch his toes lol. Usually a strained hamstring is due to compensation not tightness. However I’d say the proprioception on those hip stretches are everything. I’d YouTube the proper form, that is always one of the most important pieces for my back/si joint health. If my hips (and shoulders) aren’t moving well it doesn’t matter how strong I am. Also, if it starts getting easier there is a cool variation you can do with a monster band. The monster band lunges we were talking about are amazing for keeping that knee from diving in. If you need me to find videos for these let me know. Lastly, planks and bridges are staples, but the form matters more than the duration and reps. Everything we do in strength training is about about building the mind muscle connection, otherwise it’s not functional. Again not a PT, but certainly have a lot of experience with Si joint/back issues with my scoliosis/functionally short leg :-) Sorry to hear you can’t run right now, but I know you’ll bounce back stronger than ever 💪🏻

Thanks for all the great advice!

Good luck getting healthy!

While it stinks needing to go to PT, if you're like me, you'll enjoy the sessions. There's always a little bit of me that is disappointed when I get healthy and need to stop going to PT.

Thanks!
 
Just saw your comments on another person's journal about needing to drink about 15 oz water for 30g of carbs... I googled for myself and man I don't do anything close to what's recommended! I never carry fluids on me in a race, so I drink one, maybe 2 of those little Dixie cups of water with each gel. Maybe that's a good place to start if I want to change things. Or just go with the Gatorade/Powerade on the course instead of a gel like @canglim52 said.
During training for my first marathon, I discovered that the fueling strategy I had been using for every single half marathon I had ran up to that point was inaccurate. While I did not notice any real negative effects due to this inadequate fueling in half marathon distances, I was really feeling it in marathon training. Once we figured out that I was not taking in enough fuel, I then had to figure out how to deal with my own stomach issues that arose when taking in the necessary amount of fuel. So then I had to try a few different options until somebody here recommended huma gels. That worked spectacularly for me.
 
Just saw your comments on another person's journal about needing to drink about 15 oz water for 30g of carbs... I googled for myself and man I don't do anything close to what's recommended! I never carry fluids on me in a race, so I drink one, maybe 2 of those little Dixie cups of water with each gel. Maybe that's a good place to start if I want to change things. Or just go with the Gatorade/Powerade on the course instead of a gel like @canglim52 said.
During training for my first marathon, I discovered that the fueling strategy I had been using for every single half marathon I had ran up to that point was inaccurate. While I did not notice any real negative effects due to this inadequate fueling in half marathon distances, I was really feeling it in marathon training. Once we figured out that I was not taking in enough fuel, I then had to figure out how to deal with my own stomach issues that arose when taking in the necessary amount of fuel. So then I had to try a few different options until somebody here recommended huma gels. That worked spectacularly for me.
 


Did you and G decide to sign up for Princess Weekend? I think you mentioned you were considering it at one point.

Originally that was the plan. However because of the COVID pandemic uncertainty we decided to hold off. Taking a wait and see approach, but I’d say it’s highly unlikely at this moment. I think we may decide to get a dog instead.
 
That's....quite a pivot.

Well ever since our dog, Lucy, died 2 years ago, there's been a void in our lives. At the time, Steph said never again because she couldn't go through the heartbreak again. But over the course of the last year, she sends me dog pics all the time. But dogs, like Disney trips, are expensive. Especially the upfront cost of a dog. So it's a one or the other financial decision for us since we can't afford both in the same relative timeframe. So not necessarily just the Princess race weekend registration, but the entire cost of the week trip that is under consideration. And at this point, I don't know what WDW will look like in February 2021 (or the race itself for that matter), and whether it's something I want to spend my money on. I've already been burned on a couple hundred dollars of registration fees. So hence the wait and see, and deciding we'll likely opt out for this go around in lieu of spending our money on something else that we want. Maybe Princess weekend 2022 instead.
 


Well ever since our dog, Lucy, died 2 years ago, there's been a void in our lives. At the time, Steph said never again because she couldn't go through the heartbreak again. But over the course of the last year, she sends me dog pics all the time. But dogs, like Disney trips, are expensive. Especially the upfront cost of a dog. So it's a one or the other financial decision for us since we can't afford both in the same relative timeframe. So not necessarily just the Princess race weekend registration, but the entire cost of the week trip that is under consideration. And at this point, I don't know what WDW will look like in February 2021 (or the race itself for that matter), and whether it's something I want to spend my money on. I've already been burned on a couple hundred dollars of registration fees. So hence the wait and see, and deciding we'll likely opt out for this go around in lieu of spending our money on something else that we want. Maybe Princess weekend 2022 instead.

Makes sense. Dogs are a big cost. We bit the bullet and got our first dog about two years ago. It was one of the best decisions we've ever made. We don't know what we'd do without him. I'm sure we'll have similar heartbreak to you and Steph at some point, but all the positives will outweigh that negative.

I completely understand the concern about costs and the uncertainty with travel/Disney World in 2021. Despite that, my wife and I both signed up for Princess yesterday. After a period of relative inactivity, she's trying to get herself back into shape and has been doing very well the last couple of weeks. While she is by no means a competitive runner, having the Fairytale Challenge dangling as a carrot will help keep her motivated (I enjoy my training plans from you so much that I told her to reach out to you for guidance, but she's a little embarrassed because of her slow speeds). Plus, I've wanted to experience a non-Marathon Weekend RunDisney experience, so this will give me a chance. And, if no other races take place, it will give me a half marathon attempt at a time for "A" corral placement for Dopey 2022.
 
but all the positives will outweigh that negative.

Exactly this.

After a period of relative inactivity, she's trying to get herself back into shape and has been doing very well the last couple of weeks.

Sounds like our significant others are on a similar path. Steph doesn't really desire to race, but she is trying to regain her fitness right now.

I enjoy my training plans from you so much that I told her to reach out to you for guidance, but she's a little embarrassed because of her slow speeds

I'm of the opinion that she has absolutely nothing to be embarrassed about, but I won't dismiss her feelings. I help people who run marathons at sub-3 and BQ, and others that strive to break 40min 5ks, 3hr HMs or 6hr Ms. The spectrum of personal accomplishments is wide ranging regardless of one's pace. Even if she just wants a 3rd party sounding board that's impartial, I can be that too. My ultimate goal is just to help others get the same feelings/enjoyment I get from running however that may be.
 
What's next? Summer/Fall 2020 Training Plan

After successfully completing my Spring 2020 goal of a sub-6 minute mile (albeit with a sour taste in my mouth given a strong feeling I could have done better with the multiple attempts planned), it's time to move on and ask what's next? Training for a 5k? Training for HM or M? After giving it some thought, the siren song of endurance running continues to call me. So I want to move back towards either a HM or M. In the midst of the COVID pandemic, it's hard to say whether a HM or M race will be occurring in October/November. So, I decided to approach the training in the following manner. Act as if the Madison Marathon Weekend will be occurring, and if it doesn't, then plan to time trial instead. I'll hold off until the race weekend is much much closer to register. And if it fills up, or is cancelled, or whatever happens, then so be it. At the end of the training based on how I'm feeling, I'll either run a HM or M. I haven't decided which distance I'll end up doing either way.

So as is usual, I wanted to look back and see what I've learned from past training plans to continue to build off those learned experiences. What worked? What didn't? I really liked where I was in November 2019 when I ran the Madison HM as a tune-up race prior to Disney 2020. I truly feel my fitness was at an all time high at that moment. The training that occurred after the Madison HM up to Disney 2020 on the other hand was detrimental as I pushed too far. I decided to lay out each of my training plans in a timeline with the associated Garmin VO2max each week. In my experience, the Garmin VO2max value in the absence of other changes is a relatively good predictor of overall fitness. The association between %HR and pace, and the changes that occur in that relationship display a change/improvement in fitness. So I wanted to see if I could glean any information from the Garmin VO2max value as each training plan progressed.

Screen Shot 2020-06-17 at 11.09.45 AM.png

Apologies as the graphic is quite small, but I believe if you click on it, it'll get bigger. I went through and color coded the Garmin VO2max values based on whether I felt like they were trending upwards (green), staying the same (yellow) or going down (red). The pink color on a week signifies a race that was a PR. The grey color signifies a race that was not a PR. While it's not terribly fair to judge each training plan based on a single day (PR or not), I think it still provides some reasonable information along with how I felt during the midst of that training. Something stood out to me in performing this graphically. Of the 8 training plans depicted, my Garmin VO2max value fell at the end of the training in six of them (granted it may not be fair to include the mile time trial training plan since the primary purpose was raw power and not aerobic endurance). Regardless, this might suggest that I have a limited window in which I'm capable of building fitness before I start the downswing, or said another way, I have a nasty habit of training myself into the ground at the end of a training plan. I know it, you know it, we all know it.

So I decided to look at the reverse instead. How long was I able to maintain green training, or green+yellow?

10-13 weeks
11 weeks
12 weeks
10-14 weeks
9 weeks
11-13 weeks
13-18 weeks
11 weeks

So despite these training plans lasting 13-26 weeks, on a consistent basis I was improving/maintaining aerobically for around 10-13 weeks.

So that's all well and good. But the next question would be, what similarities did the green/yellow portions have in the actual training that the red portions did not? How can I use this information? What makes something stay yellow the whole time and not really increase that much (like Lakefront 2017 and Chicago 2018) vs improve from the start (like Daniels 5k/10k, Dopey 2018, Spring 2018, Spring 2019, Disney 2020)? I evaluated them based on weekly running duration, miles, pace, training load fitness level, and training load form level. None of these really stood out to me on a weekly basis. But, then I evaluated each of the plans based on the number of days in a certain region of the training load form zones. As a short refresher, the training load form zones range from:

<-10 = Optimal
-10 to +5 = Neutral
+5 to +25 = Fresh
>+25 = Transition

Since I've been cycling, I took that into consideration but with and without. The cycling just muddled the numbers, so I ended up just looking at each of the training plans solely based on running training load. And I believe I found a trend.

Screen Shot 2020-06-17 at 11.26.14 AM.png

The above are two training plans where there was little to no improvement in Garmin VO2max value.

Screen Shot 2020-06-17 at 11.27.49 AM.png

Versus the plans above that did show improvement in Garmin VO2max value. What I saw was that the # of days of >0 training load form was somewhat indicative of whether I would be improving. So while >-10 is considered "optimal" based on those who came up with this formula (originally for cycling), there does appear to be some data personally that suggests consistently being in the 0 to -10 range is suitable for long term increases in fitness. When I had multiple weeks of never allowing my training load to be above 0 on any given day, I was consistently improving. As soon as I started to see weeks with >3 days of >0 training load, then I started to level off or decline in VO2max.

Now this isn't necessarily some shocking revelation. Continued increase in training load leads to increasing fitness. It's why this training load system exists in the first place. But it's interesting nonetheless to see if laid out like this to me.

So the next question is, how do I take what I've learned here and apply it to the next training plan? Wel,l first off, I can't start training in earnest too far off from the actual race itself. The data shows that I can tolerate about 10-13 weeks before things start to wane. Secondly, once I do start training in earnest, then it's important to make sure that my daily training load form value exclusive to running stays below a value of 0. Lastly, in a different review in the data set we saw that in order for me to reach these higher Garmin VO2max values, my run training volume had to be in the 7.5-9hr range. I don't think I can manage that type of run volume, so I'll continue to use cycling and strength training as a supplement. Based on previous number crunching, good cycling is worth about 1/2 the run time. So if I max out around 6.5 hr running, then I'd need something like 5-6 hrs of cycling as a supplement. That would give me something like 9-9.5 hrs running equivalent.

So I designed the next 21 weeks based on those premises. The first two weeks are just nice and easy as a continued effort to heal up from the last training plan. Then, I'm going to do the first 8 weeks (Base phase) of the Half Ironman Medium Volume TrainerRoad training plan. The focus during this will be on cycling whereas the running volume will remain low and almost exclusively easy. During this 10 week phase where I'm not really concerned with running as much, I'm going to try and dial in my weight again. Once the run phase starts, then I'll go back to fueling the training to the max. Then, when there is 11 weeks to go until race day, I'll pivot the training focus. I'll move from 4 running days, 4 cycling days, 4 strength days to 5 running days, 3 cycling days, and 4 strength days. I'll start to add in some pace work focusing on brick HM Tempo work and occasionally a faster paced day. Never more than 2 hard run days per week (including the long run) and separated by 3-4 days. The cycling will be focused on volume, a brick workout, or one hard cycle per week. And on the bright side, I wrote it so that I never have to ride longer than 2.5hrs on the indoor bike. In totality, the volume will be far less than the post-Madison HM leading up to Disney 2020.

If executed correctly, then it should give me the following on the training load calculations:

Screen Shot 2020-06-17 at 11.47.43 AM.png

Where I'll see 11-13 weeks of zero days per week with greater than 0 for training load form using running exclusively.

As for strength training, I'm doing a somewhat modified version. I took my favorite core workout from the last 8 years (McMillan core) and combined it with my favorite upper body workout (LIIFT4). So twice per week I'll do the first half of a LIIFT4 video when the lifting is occurring, and then finish the workout with the McMillan runner's core routine. Additionally, McMillan was offering a new "Marathon Legs" program that I decided to sign up for. It was $40 instead of $5 like the core routine was. The core routine has 9 follow-along videos and I was happy with that for $5. So I was really disappointed with the $40 McMillan leg program when I found out it was 36 separate exercise videos that only show a 15 second clip of a single workout. No follow-along workouts. Just shows you how to do it, but with no verbal instructions on form or anything. There's supplemental writing that comes with it that explains the moves in written form, but no audio in the videos. So I ended up combining the short clips into a "follow-along" video myself by doing some video editing. It's not perfect, but it gets the point across without me constantly having to re-upload new video clips to re-remind myself of what good form looks like. Despite being a leg strength program with no weights, it really beat me up in the one time I've done it thus far. So I'm hoping that's a good sign as it'll help strengthen my leg muscles beyond what I am getting from running or cycling. These particular McMillan leg workouts are to occur immediately after a hard run/cycle.

So I think at the moment that's what I'm planning to do. Focus on easy for the next 2 weeks, then cycling as the main focus for 8 weeks, and then running as the main focus for the last 11 weeks leading up to the Madison HM/M on November 8th, 2020. Let's see how it goes!
 
Billy, great write up and of course I wish you the best in your training program and look forward to reading your progress reports. New training cycles are also so exciting for me, at least!

I also had a question. Are you saying you want to keep your "form" between -10 and 0, including with rest days? If so, it's a testament to your overall fitness that you are struggling with that. I currently am having no issues keeping my "form" below zero doing simple 3-mile runs!

And I guess the corollary question is whether you want to get your form "below" -10 at all.

Thanks!
 
Billy, great write up and of course I wish you the best in your training program and look forward to reading your progress reports. New training cycles are also so exciting for me, at least!

Thanks! Training plans and the thought process in creating them is one of my favorite aspects of running.

I also had a question. Are you saying you want to keep your "form" between -10 and 0, including with rest days? If so, it's a testament to your overall fitness that you are struggling with that. I currently am having no issues keeping my "form" below zero doing simple 3-mile runs!

That's correct. No matter what's on the schedule, my goal for this training plan is to keep the "form" value less than 0 during that 11-13 week's out from race day period. The data seems to suggest that once I start seeing 3 or more days with the value being above 0 in a week is when I start to see my Garmin VO2max value level off or fall. If things go according to plan, then this is what my "form" data will look like from now until November.

Screen Shot 2020-06-18 at 3.11.34 PM.png

Despite no "real" focus on running, you can see that my "form" value will still drop over the next 8-10 weeks at a fairly consistent rate. The goal in making this training plan was to:

A) Keep the running form value above 0 for the "easy" and "cycling" phases of the training.
B) Keep the running form value below 0 once the "run" phase of the training begins.
C) Keep the sub-0 run phase to 11-13 weeks maximally.
D) Make sure that the transition from "cycling" phase to "run" phase is not too harsh/sudden potentially causing an injury. So the first 10 weeks range from 15-27 miles (whereas the Spring 2020 training was mostly in the 30-35 range), and then the last 11 weeks is in the 27-47 mile range. Only in essence an increase of about 11-12 miles from where the Spring 2020 training was. The one place I'm most willing to cut mileage from if necessary is the long run days.

It's important to make a sidenote that when viewing the training as "run" only in the form graph the "form" dropping is going to appear severe on my long run days. But my cycling should help support that when viewed in a totality of training such that it shouldn't be "as" severe of a difference from "normal".

There's no way for me to know whether my analysis of my own data is translatable to others. I'm sure in essence it is, but where that cutpoint for each person may be, may be slightly different. But for me, it would take a while for my "fitness" to fall far enough down such that my "form" could be sub-zero off of 3 mile runs. And after about 4-6 weeks of 3 mile runs, you're likely to see that form value no longer stay sub-zero throughout the week as the training load hasn't progressed. At the end of the day, the "form" value is really just an evaluative tool to say how much the training load is progressing over the course of time (more specifically the last 2 months or so).

And I guess the corollary question is whether you want to get your form "below" -10 at all.

I looked at that as well. On the surface, it seemed like the "no days above 0" mattered more than the "# of days less than -10".

502040

In this image you can see that the 5k/10k Daniels Spring 2017 plan had several occurrences of 4-6 days less than -10. In the Dopey 2018 plan, you can see a few occurrences of 1-4 days less than -10. In the Disney 2020 Fall plan you can see almost no more than 1 day less than -10. At the end of the day, they all ended up in roughly the same place from a Garmin VO2max standpoint with a near similar starting point.

502041

Conversely in these training plans where Garmin VO2max did not raise, there were still occurrences of 1-6 days of -10 with little to no change in the VO2max value.

So I came to the conclusion, that having at least 1 day of -10 probably matters to some extent, but on the surface having near zero days of >0 form seemed to matter more. I didn't run any type of analysis on this. Just simply an eye-ball, intuition, pattern hunting thing.

And based on experience, while the theoretical graph presented shows several occurrences of -10 in the latter stages of the training plan, I know from experience that I'm more likely to err on the lower side than the higher side of stress scores. That's to say, I expect it's more likely to see that whole graph shift slightly up, then it is for me to see that graph as is, or shifted down when November rolls around.

Again though, that value of -10 might be the cutpoint for me in terms of these graphs, but for someone else, that value may be higher/lower. It's possible my ">0 threshold" and "<-10 threshold" is someone else's ">-10 threshold" and "<-20 threshold". The only way to know is for someone to do a similar analysis of their data set as I have to my own.
 
Are you still tracking these things using the Elevate app in Strava? Your form chart above seems to be from something different. Am I behind the times?

I remember the first time I did an easy run and my form went "up" rather than "down". It took me totally by surprise. But since your training plans rarely let up all that much, my "form" almost always stays below zero during training cycles.

Edit: And are you looking at your overall "form" or the form "change" per run? I would imagine you probably don't want too many runs where the form "change" is greater than -10...
 
Are you still tracking these things using the Elevate app in Strava? Your form chart above seems to be from something different. Am I behind the times?

Yes and no.

This retrospective analysis was done using the Elevate application. I got the data off of there from what happened by looking at the chart/table.

502084

This prospective theoretical analysis was done using Excel and some formulas that I figured out very closely resemble the "Fitness, Fatigue, and Form" values. 502085

Screen Shot 2020-06-18 at 6.38.34 PM.png

It's date, day, estimated stress value, fitness, fatigue, form, date, form, weekly average, difference between weekly and current fitness at that moment.

Estimated stress value = the type of run * duration

502088
*Important to note that these are my values and may not be reflective of your own.

Fitness = (Prev Day Fit+(Estimated Stress-Prev Day Fit)*0.0238)
Fatigue = (Prev Day Fat+(Estimated Stress-Prev Day Fat)*0.1331)
Current Form = Prev Day Fitness - Prev Day Fatigue

Edit: And are you looking at your overall "form" or the form "change" per run? I would imagine you probably don't want too many runs where the form "change" is greater than -10...

Overall Form. I don't look at the change in Form as much in this recent analysis.
 
After a period of relative inactivity, she's trying to get herself back into shape and has been doing very well the last couple of weeks. While she is by no means a competitive runner, having the Fairytale Challenge dangling as a carrot will help keep her motivated (I enjoy my training plans from you so much that I told her to reach out to you for guidance, but she's a little embarrassed because of her slow speeds).
I can honestly say that Billy's main goal is to help a runner achieve their goals, regardless of what those goals may be. When he agreed to set up a Dopey plan for me, I had never run a sub 3 hour half marathon. And when my first real attempt at a sub 3 hour half did not go according to plan at all, he let me be frustrated with myself for a few days before reminding me to take the time to examine the race thoroughly. That examination helped me learn a lot from what went wrong leading up and especially on race day. And when I encountered some severe discouragement during marathon training, he helped me figure out what was going on and address the problems then. I applied the lessons he taught me and the others he guided me into discovering for myself and found myself finishing both the 2019 and 2020 Dopey Challenges, with the 2020 marathon being in insanely hot temperatures that caused them to cut the course short.
My ultimate goal is just to help others get the same feelings/enjoyment I get from running however that may be.
I know I've said this before, but I will say it again. Your plans helped me not only finish the marathon, which I believed to be literally impossible for many years, but to do so with a huge smile on my face in spite of hot temperatures and new challenges I had never before faced in running. Your plans help keep me fresh heading into the race where I can then give full effort when it matters most.
 
I can honestly say that Billy's main goal is to help a runner achieve their goals, regardless of what those goals may be. When he agreed to set up a Dopey plan for me, I had never run a sub 3 hour half marathon. And when my first real attempt at a sub 3 hour half did not go according to plan at all, he let me be frustrated with myself for a few days before reminding me to take the time to examine the race thoroughly. That examination helped me learn a lot from what went wrong leading up and especially on race day. And when I encountered some severe discouragement during marathon training, he helped me figure out what was going on and address the problems then. I applied the lessons he taught me and the others he guided me into discovering for myself and found myself finishing both the 2019 and 2020 Dopey Challenges, with the 2020 marathon being in insanely hot temperatures that caused them to cut the course short.

Billy has been extremely valuable to me, too! I completed the 2018 Dopey Challenge (my first marathon) thanks to some of his insight on these boards, but not with one of his training plans. I finally asked him to help me with a training plan last summer, in preparation for a September half marathon. I loved the training, the structure and his philosophies. He then helped me out with preparing for Dopey 2020, and even though a torn calf muscle impacted my training, I loved having my plan from him as a guide. And it helped me complete my second Dopey Challenge!

I felt lost after Dopey 2020 with no DopeyBadger training plan to guide my running, so I reached back out and he developed a plan for a May half marathon that was unfortunately canceled. However, I followed through with the training and did a half marathon on my own. The structured training also helped me during the coronavirus time. It gave me some goals and milestones to differentiate each day.

I am now in the midst of another training plan for a September half that has already been canceled (but I will do one my own if there are no other races held). I love that Billy has used the data and insights from my past plans to develop one that will really challenge me. When I saw there was an 18-mile run on the schedule, I questioned him and he said, "It is a little like a training at a marathon level for a half marathon, but I'm betting it will pay off." We'll see!
 
I winder if the days above 0 result in a faster climb in fitness the following week when the intensity is reapplied. Obviously it’s not the most accurate gauge, but I usually see my worse VO2Max results on my hardest days of the day after... but I see my biggest jumps on my rest periods and down weeks. Also, based on my HR/elevate data I can tolerate a lot more than what my body can actually tolerate. I wonder how much correlation elevate has to muscle soreness and ability to recover? And does that mean you need to dial back volume and really dial up intensity? There’s got to be certain point where the HR/aerobic system is superior to the muscular and skeletal limiters, right?
 
I winder if the days above 0 result in a faster climb in fitness the following week when the intensity is reapplied. Obviously it’s not the most accurate gauge, but I usually see my worse VO2Max results on my hardest days of the day after... but I see my biggest jumps on my rest periods and down weeks.

So I tried looking at it based on volume of running (in duration) as well as % hard per week (defined as anything faster than LR pace). The rate of climb doesn't seem to be correlated with these as much as simply being at no >0 days in form in consecutive weeks. Sometimes the increase in VO2max is showing an increase in a week with 0% hard or a recovery week, and sometimes not. Sometimes the increase is occurring in week's with a 30% hard or peak weeks, and sometimes not. Sometimes in either of these cases we also see a decrease instead of an increase.

If for instance you mean several consecutive weeks of sub-zero form, followed by a week above zero, and then going back sub-zero, the best example I have of that is Lakefront 2017.

Screen Shot 2020-06-19 at 3.28.11 PM.png

When the form went above 0 in Week 10, the response was a fall in Week 12. Granted this isn't a case with sub-zero, then above zero, then immediately sub-zero. There is something like this in Disney 2020:

Screen Shot 2020-06-19 at 3.29.55 PM.png

Where Week 8 is above 0, but no change is seen until Week 12.

I think it's important to state though that my evaluation of "no >0 days" is in the context that in each of these 8 training plans I followed a normal training structure. With peak weeks, hard weeks, recovery weeks, etc. Arguably the only time I went nuts and didn't have rest weeks was Lakefront 2016, but that's not included in this analysis because that occurred during a time where I had no Garmin VO2max data.

Also, based on my HR/elevate data I can tolerate a lot more than what my body can actually tolerate. I wonder how much correlation elevate has to muscle soreness and ability to recover? And does that mean you need to dial back volume and really dial up intensity? There’s got to be certain point where the HR/aerobic system is superior to the muscular and skeletal limiters, right?

I think this is where we question the "zones" of Elevate (or the formula in general) and its use for running. We know that running takes a much larger toll on the body than does cycling. So does it seem appropriate that they have the same "zones"? Does the reason the "data" says you can handle more, but physically you and I both know we can't, suggest that the zones are the issue and not us per se. Because from cycling experience, it's fairly easy to stay in the optimal zone (<-10) when cycling, but I've almost never been able to stay in that same zone with running.

If you dial back volume and increase intensity, that's sort of what I did in transitioning from the Milwaukee Marathon 2020 training in Feb/March to the Daniels Mile training in March/April/May. At least for me, the increase intensity and loss of volume caused my form to drop and concurrently my VO2max to drop. With that being said, despite my VO2max falling, I was setting all kinds of speed PRs. But I know from memory, that I had nothing in the tank when it came to endurance. But in this specific example, the end goal was raw speed and not endurance. This plan's goal is endurance and not necessarily raw speed.
 
So I tried looking at it based on volume of running (in duration) as well as % hard per week (defined as anything faster than LR pace). The rate of climb doesn't seem to be correlated with these as much as simply being at no >0 days in form in consecutive weeks. Sometimes the increase in VO2max is showing an increase in a week with 0% hard or a recovery week, and sometimes not. Sometimes the increase is occurring in week's with a 30% hard or peak weeks, and sometimes not. Sometimes in either of these cases we also see a decrease instead of an increase.

If for instance you mean several consecutive weeks of sub-zero form, followed by a week above zero, and then going back sub-zero, the best example I have of that is Lakefront 2017.

View attachment 502268

When the form went above 0 in Week 10, the response was a fall in Week 12. Granted this isn't a case with sub-zero, then above zero, then immediately sub-zero. There is something like this in Disney 2020:

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Where Week 8 is above 0, but no change is seen until Week 12.

I think it's important to state though that my evaluation of "no >0 days" is in the context that in each of these 8 training plans I followed a normal training structure. With peak weeks, hard weeks, recovery weeks, etc. Arguably the only time I went nuts and didn't have rest weeks was Lakefront 2016, but that's not included in this analysis because that occurred during a time where I had no Garmin VO2max data.



I think this is where we question the "zones" of Elevate (or the formula in general) and its use for running. We know that running takes a much larger toll on the body than does cycling. So does it seem appropriate that they have the same "zones"? Does the reason the "data" says you can handle more, but physically you and I both know we can't, suggest that the zones are the issue and not us per se. Because from cycling experience, it's fairly easy to stay in the optimal zone (<-10) when cycling, but I've almost never been able to stay in that same zone with running.

If you dial back volume and increase intensity, that's sort of what I did in transitioning from the Milwaukee Marathon 2020 training in Feb/March to the Daniels Mile training in March/April/May. At least for me, the increase intensity and loss of volume caused my form to drop and concurrently my VO2max to drop. With that being said, despite my VO2max falling, I was setting all kinds of speed PRs. But I know from memory, that I had nothing in the tank when it came to endurance. But in this specific example, the end goal was raw speed and not endurance. This plan's goal is endurance and not necessarily raw speed.
Interesting break down! And makes sense considering speed works effects the mitochondria. I guess it always comes back to goals and what you’re training for. I also see why hansons does that micro amount of speed work up front too.
 

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