Waitlist impossibilities

[ANKx4]

Really just venting a little to the people who understand!!

We decided on a "last minute" trip with family this fall. By last minute I mean just barely less than 7 months. I knew we wouldn't find anything at BLT or Boardwalk the week of Halloween. And that's ok. But there has been NOTHING. Anywhere. We only barely managed to get the days we needed at Saratoga.

I've put in a couple of waitlists, but I'm not hopeful. And I check "just in case" every time I get on the computer. But I'm just frustrated and annoyed. When we bought 10 years ago we could manage a reservation with options on where to stay, even after 7 months. And we have been fortunate to stay at most of the resorts along the way. Don't get me wrong I am thankful we get to go at all. And Saratoga is fine. We've stayed there before and really enjoyed it. Just not feeling it this time around and frustrated to feel like there are no options unless we want to fork over the ridiculous sums of money (for our family budget) that we joined DVC to save.

We will still go. And we will still have a fantastic trip!! Lets be honest...the real problem is that we want a room with the murphy bed because my children are incapable of sharing a bed without nuclear war (11 year old bed hog!!)

Thanks for letting me vent a bit...

 

[cvjw]

I have had 2 waitlists for the poly clear for late October. When I tried to book a studio before and after our Disney cruise, there were zero studios available. Hope your waitlist comes thru!

 

[bobbiwoz]

Did you actually get a studio at SSR this close to Halloween?

 

[MilesMouse]

you can vent!

Halloween parties, F&W festival, F&W half marathon weekend, star wars, fall season in general...that's a lot to compete with!

 

[Frederic Civish]

Disney is responsible for the difficulties of decreased availability at 7 months.

1. The online program makes it very easy for people to book and use their points. And they do. This is actually a good thing.

2. The program makes it easier for people to rent out their points when they aren't going to use them. This means that points get used and take up reservations, instead of expiring. However, another part of this is that Disney has made it very attractive to rent points out by raising the prices of rooms so very high. So, more points get used. If you have 50 points you are going to lose, but points only rent for $5 each then you stand to lose maybe $250. Not nice, but not a really big deal. But if points are going for $20 a point (and I have rented a lot of points at $20 a point) then your 50 points becomes $1000. That is much more significant!!!

3. Disney did establish a program in DVC that has some intrinsic value. Unlike most timeshares, where point value gradually goes to zero, the DVC points retain value, as long as they can be used to stay at the very expensive resorts that Disney has created by raising their prices. This makes it worthwhile for people to SELL their points on the RESALE market when they get tired of them, or too old for them, or their circumstances change. So, points that used to sit around doing nothing, now go into the hands of people (the resale buyers) who are more likely to use them.

4. HHI and Vero Beach owners who bought resale. This is a special sub category of resale buyers, not just because they bought contracts, and kept them active, but also because they are especially likely to shift from their Home Resort to use them at Disney World. The original owners of HHI and VB were likely to have purchased those locations because they LIKED those locations. But as the population has aged and changed and new resale buyers have come in, a very very large part of those resale buyers bought VB and HHI, with no intention to ever stay there, but because they were cheap, and it gave them an inexpensive way to stay at Disney World. This puts more pressure on the rest of the system.

5. Disney has sold too many small contracts. Contracts that only have enough points to stay in studios. So all the studios book up, and this then causes a cascade effect, forcing other people, who formerly stayed in studios, to use up their points by staying in other rooms, 1 bedroom and 2 bedroom units. These units were also more available in the past because the people using them formerly spent their points on studios.

6. Disney came up with the genius idea to designate certain units, Polynesian Bungalows in particular, but also others such as Copper Creek cabins, as "very high point reservoir units." In other words, make bungalows and cabins in order to create a lot of (inexpensive to build) points that Disney could sell. And they knew, or should have known that people would not choose to use their points so wastefully, on the Bungalows. Even better for Disney, they can now rent those out. Meanwhile the points that ARE NOT USED to stay in the bungalows go into the general pool and soak up other reservations at other places.

7. Disney made a mistake by building Aulani. I don't care how much Disney tries to put a rosy face on it and cherry pick their statistics to deny that Aulani people are actually staying at Disney world - the Aulani owners actually ARE staying at Disney World. Why? Because it costs less to fly to Orlando from EVERYWHERE in the continental United States (even the west coast), than to fly to Hawaii. Besides, Disney World is a whole lot more fun and interesting than Aulani. Just the fact that Aulani is still only about half sold out, AFTER ALL THESE YEARS, shows that people don't want to stay there. And the people who don't want to stay there includes the people who actually bought it. (I'm not talking about EVERYONE, but a significant percentage.) Disney should have known better.

8. Because it is getting harder to book, people ARE planning their vacations farther out, both in the 11 month window and in the 7 month window. They know that to get what they want, they MUST plan ahead, or they are likely to find themselves with poor options. This takes inventory out of the pool, earlier, and makes it nearly impossible to plan late notice vacations.

Am I missing any other major factors?

The fact is, even if people are only using 10% more of their points than they did in the past, this is enough to tip the balance and make it hard to get reservations with short notice. And, when you add up the points that formerly went unused, and the points being used because they are 'rentable,' and the points that are being switched to standard DVC units instead of being used on Bungalows, Aulani, HHI and VB, you will find a far greater increase in the number of people competing for the same reservations.

 

[Frederic Civish]

So, given all that, and the fact that things ARE getting much harder to do, your best option is to waitlist the units that are most likely to open up, and this means the resorts and unit types where there are MORE UNITS. Waitlist standard studios at SSR and OKW. Waitlist Standard and Savannah studios at Kidani. (Not Jambo. There are a whole lot more units at Kidani.) Waitlist standard units at Poly and garden view units at Boardwalk. These are listed in kind of the decreasing order of how many units there are in that category.

Because some of these resorts have massive numbers of units, it is very very likely that a number of people will be cancelling, and you are likely to have success on the waitlist at those resorts.

 

[CarolMN]

SWGE is changing everything this fall.

 

[MilesMouse]

I really hope the 2021 50th anniversary celebration is spread out over a lot of months (which I’m guessing it will be). Between that and SWGE opening there probably won’t be much relief in the next 2-3 years...maybe not even then.

 

[Deb & Bill]

I thought every body knew about Fall Frenzy. If you want to go Sept thru mid-Jan, you need to book your home resort at eleven months out.

 

[Frederic Civish]

SWGE is changing everything this fall.

I thought every body knew about Fall Frenzy. If you want to go Sept thru mid-Jan, you need to book your home resort at eleven months out.

And it looks like the changes are permanent. AND NOT JUST FOR THE FALL.

Listen to this, because I just checked. Late January is one of the slowest seasons at Disney World. There is Marathon Weekend in the first half of the month, but after that, it is all Low Season.

However, if you go to the Online Reservation program RIGHT NOW, for exactly 7 months from today, January 21st, 2020 and you asked for one week, starting 7 months from today (which you SHOULD be able to reserve) and going forward, you find that: THE ONLY STUDIOS AT ANY RESORT IN DISNEY WORLD THAT ARE AVAILABLE FOR ALL THOSE NIGHTS, ARE THE STANDARD AND PREFERRED STUDIOS AT SARATOGA SPRINGS! EVERY OTHER STUDIO is not avail for today (Jan 21st), at ANY other resort. AND, all the other resorts also have other missing days going forward, besides today.

Do you know what this means? It means that if you wanted to plan a 7 day stay, in a studio at ANY resort, starting exactly at the 7 month window, YOUR ONLY OPTION IS SSR!

So, even the days of planning right at the 7 month window are pretty much GONE.

 

[MilesMouse]

I thought every body knew about Fall Frenzy. If you want to go Sept thru mid-Jan, you need to book your home resort at eleven months out.

I think most Disney fans know about this. But honestly, when I’m talking to friends or coworkers about Disney (yes, I’m “that Disney guy” at work) a lot of people think it’s just thanksgiving, Christmas, and spring break that are busy times. I’d hope people considering DVC know the trends and have done some homework around their normal vacation habits.

 

[DougEMG]

And it looks like the changes are permanent. AND NOT JUST FOR THE FALL.

Listen to this, because I just checked. Late January is one of the slowest seasons at Disney World. There is Marathon Weekend in the first half of the month, but after that, it is all Low Season.

However, if you go to the Online Reservation program RIGHT NOW, for exactly 7 months from today, January 21st, 2020 and you asked for one week, starting 7 months from today (which you SHOULD be able to reserve) and going forward, you find that: THE ONLY STUDIOS AT ANY RESORT IN DISNEY WORLD THAT ARE AVAILABLE FOR ALL THOSE NIGHTS, ARE THE STANDARD AND PREFERRED STUDIOS AT SARATOGA SPRINGS! EVERY OTHER STUDIO is not avail for today (Jan 21st), at ANY other resort. AND, all the other resorts also have other missing days going forward, besides today.

Do you know what this means? It means that if you wanted to plan a 7 day stay, in a studio at ANY resort, starting exactly at the 7 month window, YOUR ONLY OPTION IS SSR!

So, even the days of planning right at the 7 month window are pretty much GONE.

Don't worry, DVC will fix all these problems by increasing the point costs for studios by so much that people will be stuck booking shorter trips atend thus creating more availability.

Definitely a textbook case of the cure being worst than the disease.

 

[ANKx4]

Did you actually get a studio at SSR this close to Halloween?

1 BR. Originally standard for 6 nights, but a preferred came up about a week after we booked with all 7 nights we wanted. Since then I haven't seen more than 4 nights at SSR that week (and no more than 2 anywhere else - and those very few and far between.)

 

[ANKx4]

I thought every body knew about Fall Frenzy. If you want to go Sept thru mid-Jan, you need to book your home resort at eleven months out.

That's exactly my frustration, though. We have always gone some time Oct-Jan. Nearly every trip. And only occasionally planned 11 mos out. I know there have been progressively more events and special things added, Food and Wine Festival has become crazy huge, etc., etc., etc. So I totally understand where it is coming from. Frustrating, nonetheless. (Not that we will stop going!)

 

[Deb & Bill]

That's exactly my frustration, though. We have always gone some time Oct-Jan. Nearly every trip. And only occasionally planned 11 mos out. I know there have been progressively more events and special things added, Food and Wine Festival has become crazy huge, etc., etc., etc. So I totally understand where it is coming from. Frustrating, nonetheless. (Not that we will stop going!)

Four months out isn't quite seven months out. Four months out isn't going to happen any more.

 

[jo-jo]

Anyone have any idea what's the percentage of WDW contracts vs others (Vero , etc.) ?

For us the struggle with getting studios in the fall started about 5 years ago. Until then we always could get a few days at BLT (own) and few days at other resorts.

This year with the family trip, we have 5 nights in a 2bedroom at BLT. Hoping for the rest at BLT but meanwhile have a room at SSR. Hoping perhaps someone made a resservastion way back way and then decide this isn't the time for a trip.

 

[crvetter]

Anyone have any idea what's the percentage of WDW contracts vs others (Vero , etc.) ?

For us the struggle with getting studios in the fall started about 5 years ago. Until then we always could get a few days at BLT (own) and few days at other resorts.

This year with the family trip, we have 5 nights in a 2bedroom at BLT. Hoping for the rest at BLT but meanwhile have a room at SSR. Hoping perhaps someone made a resservastion way back way and then decide this isn't the time for a trip.

Here is the total points by each resort, less DRR which has about 6.9 million points if I recall correctly.

https://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-p...ear-distribution-charts-updated-february-2018
I wouldn’t say it’s new resorts causing the problem but likely the online booking is the biggest reason, IMO. It creates anxiety seeing the bookings disappear as time goes on, causing people to book at 11 months. It also has made renting out unused points super easy. The other bigger item is likely the extremely healthy economy so people can afford vacations so more points on whole are being used.

 

[mgarbowski]

Disney is responsible for the difficulties of decreased availability at 7 months.

1. The online program makes it very easy for people to book and use their points. And they do. This is actually a good thing.

2. The program makes it easier for people to rent out their points when they aren't going to use them. This means that points get used and take up reservations, instead of expiring. However, another part of this is that Disney has made it very attractive to rent points out by raising the prices of rooms so very high. So, more points get used.

3. Disney did establish a program in DVC that has some intrinsic value. Unlike most timeshares, where point value gradually goes to zero, the DVC points retain value, as long as they can be used to stay at the very expensive resorts that Disney has created by raising their prices. This makes it worthwhile for people to SELL their points on the RESALE market when they get tired of them, or too old for them, or their circumstances change. So, points that used to sit around doing nothing, now go into the hands of people (the resale buyers) who are more likely to use them.

4. HHI and Vero Beach owners who bought resale. This is a special sub category of resale buyers, not just because they bought contracts, and kept them active, but also because they are especially likely to shift from their Home Resort to use them at Disney World. The original owners of HHI and VB were likely to have purchased those locations because they LIKED those locations. But as the population has aged and changed and new resale buyers have come in, a very very large part of those resale buyers bought VB and HHI, with no intention to ever stay there, but because they were cheap, and it gave them an inexpensive way to stay at Disney World. This puts more pressure on the rest of the system.

5. Disney has sold too many small contracts. Contracts that only have enough points to stay in studios. So all the studios book up, and this then causes a cascade effect, forcing other people, who formerly stayed in studios, to use up their points by staying in other rooms, 1 bedroom and 2 bedroom units. These units were also more available in the past because the people using them formerly spent their points on studios.

6. Disney came up with the genius idea to designate certain units, Polynesian Bungalows in particular, but also others such as Copper Creek cabins, as "very high point reservoir units." In other words, make bungalows and cabins in order to create a lot of (inexpensive to build) points that Disney could sell. And they knew, or should have known that people would not choose to use their points so wastefully, on the Bungalows. Even better for Disney, they can now rent those out. Meanwhile the points that ARE NOT USED to stay in the bungalows go into the general pool and soak up other reservations at other places.

7. Disney made a mistake by building Aulani. I don't care how much Disney tries to put a rosy face on it and cherry pick their statistics to deny that Aulani people are actually staying at Disney world - the Aulani owners actually ARE staying at Disney World. Why? Because it costs less to fly to Orlando from EVERYWHERE in the continental United States (even the west coast), than to fly to Hawaii. Besides, Disney World is a whole lot more fun and interesting than Aulani. Just the fact that Aulani is still only about half sold out, AFTER ALL THESE YEARS, shows that people don't want to stay there. And the people who don't want to stay there includes the people who actually bought it. (I'm not talking about EVERYONE, but a significant percentage.) Disney should have known better.

8. Because it is getting harder to book, people ARE planning their vacations farther out, both in the 11 month window and in the 7 month window. They know that to get what they want, they MUST plan ahead, or they are likely to find themselves with poor options. This takes inventory out of the pool, earlier, and makes it nearly impossible to plan late notice vacations.

Am I missing any other major factors?

The fact is, even if people are only using 10% more of their points than they did in the past, this is enough to tip the balance and make it hard to get reservations with short notice. And, when you add up the points that formerly went unused, the points being used because they are 'rentable,' and the points that are being switched to standard DVC unites, rather than being used on Bungalows, Aulani, HHI and VB, you will find far more than a 10% increase in the number of people competing for the same reservations.

Just want to say thank you for a very comprehensive yet succinct run down of the situation and issues.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Anyone have any idea what's the percentage of WDW contracts vs others (Vero , etc.) ?

For us the struggle with getting studios in the fall started about 5 years ago. Until then we always could get a few days at BLT (own) and few days at other resorts.

This year with the family trip, we have 5 nights in a 2bedroom at BLT. Hoping for the rest at BLT but meanwhile have a room at SSR. Hoping perhaps someone made a resservastion way back way and then decide this isn't the time for a trip.

That aligns with online booking. People used to believe that there was no availability so why even ask. Online booking showed that there was availability and everywhere that it was and so people started taking advantage of it. At least that's always been my main theory of why availability has tighted up.

 

[ANKx4]

Four months out isn't quite seven months out. Four months out isn't going to happen any more.

No. It isn't. But I started trying to book at just shy of 7 months. Lucked into a 1BR @ SSR after about a week and a half of looking and finding NOTHING and have been watching for any sort of movement at all ever since.