KVH
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Jan 18, 2016
First of all, apologies for the TL;DR. But bear with me, you may find this interesting, especially if you're pricing a cruise. Secondly,
YMMV
Can't stress this enough.
As background, I'm a Delivery Manager at a Big Four firm. Waiting for my next contract to begin next week and decided to play around with some readily available DCL data. I pulled this earlier today and then spent an hour making some charts. There's a LOT more here but I wanted to get this out so . . .
What I've done is pull the entry pricing from the DCL site by general room type. Got this idea from the DCL Blog post on fall '21. I expanded it back to October '20 (what is available publicly). I've always wondered just how the ships stack up to one another on pricing. I know a little more now. I still have absolutely no idea about pricing algorithms or their methodology. I know they have them but am still looking for patterns to help me understand why the numbers are the way they are. It definitely doesn't explain why a 5B on the fall '21 EBPC is now $9K+ at opening but I can see relative costs among sailings and ships.
But with what is available (all based on 2A only), we can do some compare and contrast and come up with some general conclusions. I will say if anyone has ideas or input on this, have at it and LMK. Technically, as an engineer, I'm infallible. But I'll concede I had to accommodate some really poor data quality (missing sailings, missing/incomplete categories, etc). So some of my assumptions may not jive at some point. But that's where the fun discussion starts. Note that, in some cases I'm removing the Concierge level rooms. The values there tend to skew the visuals but it's available if anyone really wants to know more.
Remember, this is a point-in-time review. Fall '21 is opening day data but all the rest is subject to unavailability or over time demand increases added in. In a perfect world, I'd have 6-7 years of multi-period per category data from Touring Plans fare tracker DB. But that's proprietary so I've moved on. Maybe one day I'll get all that in my system but for now let's see what we can see.
First of all, there's always a big discussion of what room level to get. And whether to spend money on the next level up. Well, it seems, from an 'investment standpoint', the cost of upgrading is ship-dependent:
If you're on the Dream with an Inside room, it'll cost you, ON AVERAGE, ~10% more to get a verandah. However, an equivalent change on the Wonder will cost you a whopping 33% more. I would say the bigger ships have a tendency of more similar room pricing but this very well may be dependent on the types of sailings the various ships do.
When to sail is also always asked. I think we all know and agree that some times of the year cost more than others. But, when you look at it from a cost per night (CPN) perspective, you'll also find the variability changes based on the type of cabin you get:
Lot of data here. And I didn't want to post four different charts for each ship. To me, the takeaway here is that Oceanview rooms tend to be less variable and more consistent in pricing over time. Verandah rooms tend to fluctuate a lot room between sailings. I think there's more here to unpack, especially at the individual ship level so will have to look at this some more.
People also ask which ship is going to cost me the most? I know there are a massive numbers of ways to value what a sailing means to an individual (gotta have that CC double dip or at least 11 nights) but cost alone isn't a bad gauge. Again, this is dependent on room type in general:
If you want an Inside room, ON AVERAGE, the smaller ships will usually get you a lower CPN That's even true for Oceanviews. But Verandahs on the Wonder are really gonna get you. Also, in general, on the CPN level, the Dream seems to be the overall most expensive ship. There may be a time factor involved here but I haven't reviewed that yet.
There's also always the question of how many nights. And it seems there is a sweet spot:
On a CPN basis, 5-day sailings, especially on the Dream, seem to be the least expensive. Likewise, 3-night and 7/8-night sailings seem to be more expensive (8-night Magic Verandah is gonna cost you). But the winner is general has to be the Wonder's PC cruises. I think that may be largely a function of the number of nights versus client cost expectations/limits. Can't imagine what it would cost what they charge per might a 3-night sailing.
Have at it. Woud love to hear if i answered any questions you may have had or if i really missed the mark.
YMMV
Can't stress this enough.
As background, I'm a Delivery Manager at a Big Four firm. Waiting for my next contract to begin next week and decided to play around with some readily available DCL data. I pulled this earlier today and then spent an hour making some charts. There's a LOT more here but I wanted to get this out so . . .
What I've done is pull the entry pricing from the DCL site by general room type. Got this idea from the DCL Blog post on fall '21. I expanded it back to October '20 (what is available publicly). I've always wondered just how the ships stack up to one another on pricing. I know a little more now. I still have absolutely no idea about pricing algorithms or their methodology. I know they have them but am still looking for patterns to help me understand why the numbers are the way they are. It definitely doesn't explain why a 5B on the fall '21 EBPC is now $9K+ at opening but I can see relative costs among sailings and ships.
But with what is available (all based on 2A only), we can do some compare and contrast and come up with some general conclusions. I will say if anyone has ideas or input on this, have at it and LMK. Technically, as an engineer, I'm infallible. But I'll concede I had to accommodate some really poor data quality (missing sailings, missing/incomplete categories, etc). So some of my assumptions may not jive at some point. But that's where the fun discussion starts. Note that, in some cases I'm removing the Concierge level rooms. The values there tend to skew the visuals but it's available if anyone really wants to know more.
Remember, this is a point-in-time review. Fall '21 is opening day data but all the rest is subject to unavailability or over time demand increases added in. In a perfect world, I'd have 6-7 years of multi-period per category data from Touring Plans fare tracker DB. But that's proprietary so I've moved on. Maybe one day I'll get all that in my system but for now let's see what we can see.
First of all, there's always a big discussion of what room level to get. And whether to spend money on the next level up. Well, it seems, from an 'investment standpoint', the cost of upgrading is ship-dependent:
| Ship | Upgrade to Oceanview | Upgrade to Verandah | Upgrade to Concierge |
| Dream | 3.0% | 6.4% | 48.1% |
| Fantasy | 4.6% | 6.9% | 51.9% |
| Magic | 11.0% | 17.7% | 53.1% |
| Wonder | 13.4% | 20.0% | 45.5% |
If you're on the Dream with an Inside room, it'll cost you, ON AVERAGE, ~10% more to get a verandah. However, an equivalent change on the Wonder will cost you a whopping 33% more. I would say the bigger ships have a tendency of more similar room pricing but this very well may be dependent on the types of sailings the various ships do.
When to sail is also always asked. I think we all know and agree that some times of the year cost more than others. But, when you look at it from a cost per night (CPN) perspective, you'll also find the variability changes based on the type of cabin you get:
Lot of data here. And I didn't want to post four different charts for each ship. To me, the takeaway here is that Oceanview rooms tend to be less variable and more consistent in pricing over time. Verandah rooms tend to fluctuate a lot room between sailings. I think there's more here to unpack, especially at the individual ship level so will have to look at this some more.
People also ask which ship is going to cost me the most? I know there are a massive numbers of ways to value what a sailing means to an individual (gotta have that CC double dip or at least 11 nights) but cost alone isn't a bad gauge. Again, this is dependent on room type in general:
If you want an Inside room, ON AVERAGE, the smaller ships will usually get you a lower CPN That's even true for Oceanviews. But Verandahs on the Wonder are really gonna get you. Also, in general, on the CPN level, the Dream seems to be the overall most expensive ship. There may be a time factor involved here but I haven't reviewed that yet.
There's also always the question of how many nights. And it seems there is a sweet spot:
On a CPN basis, 5-day sailings, especially on the Dream, seem to be the least expensive. Likewise, 3-night and 7/8-night sailings seem to be more expensive (8-night Magic Verandah is gonna cost you). But the winner is general has to be the Wonder's PC cruises. I think that may be largely a function of the number of nights versus client cost expectations/limits. Can't imagine what it would cost what they charge per might a 3-night sailing.
Have at it. Woud love to hear if i answered any questions you may have had or if i really missed the mark.
