Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[CarolMN]

I’ve only been on the SL half a dozen times, but it experienced brief stops every single time.

If those were on the EPCOT line, the brief stops are due to wheelchair/ECV loading at the Riviera station.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

Just to get a feel for a reasonable price... our membership info just arrived for our first resale contract (200 points AKV, Oct use year). We're looking to add on a second 100-150 point contract, either AKV or SSR with the same Oct use year. I've been watching multiple resale listings, but haven't pulled the trigger on anything yet. What's a reasonable price per point for both? I don't want to go too low with ROFR seeming to pick up, but I don't want to get a bad deal, either. I was thinking 100-105/point for SSR and 105-110 for AKV? Does that make sense on a 100-150 point contract?

SSR= I wouldn’t pay higher than $95
AKL= I wouldn’t pay higher than $105
Do not pay 2020 member fees. If broker pushes back just go to another broker. There are brokers who do not push back on that.

 

[Dean]

I often wonder about this on the ROFR threads. It says to include those fees in the total (which I did when posting about my recent purchase), but sometimes posts appear to omit that information.

Even if the seller paid the MFs, there are almost certainly SOME closing costs. So when I see a post there that reflects, for example, 100 points at $100 and the reported total is $10K even, I have to think some information is missing.

I don't think anyone's lying about what they paid to "brag" but I do think some of those costs get omitted on the ROFR thread for whatever reason.

Some other issues I've seen with posted purchase or ROFR prices (timeshares in general not just DVC) include that those that are outliers are less likely to post. If one paid more then realize it later, they are less likely to admit to same. If one was low they sometimes are reluctant to post as well for several reasons. I know at one time when DVC would exercise ROFR they'd put in their paperwork a requirement the seller not disclose the price but since it hasn't been mentioned in some time I suspect they no longer do so. I also think some of the resale companies try to manipulate the prices and this is one way that can be done. While it doesn't get the volume for DVC that DIS and some other sites do, rofr.net is another location that tracks resale prices and can be a great resource for Marriott, Hilton and Vistana/Westin.

 

[EM Lawrence]

If those were on the EPCOT line, the brief stops are due to wheelchair/ECV loading at the Riviera station.

That is what I figured, and considering I will need an ECV on my next trip those brief stops don’t bother me a bit. But it is such a relief when you start moving again!!!

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

If you are very worried about ROFR, I’d wait a couple of months before putting in offers. I’ve become extremely bearish on the future of DVC prices, and the economy in general. The company just laid off 28,000 people and that included entire divisions of DVC. They may be buying back contracts right now due to a short term spike in demand for buyers who want to get in before the blue card minimum increases to 125, but I expect that demand to fizzle out pretty quickly. I don’t think DVC resale or direct have felt the full pain of this economic disaster created by Covid yet. DVC can’t continue to support itself primarily on sales to existing members. They need fresh buyers in the parks to feed their machine, and it is going to be an extended period of time before they all come back again. YMMV.

I agree. I am optimistic about the economy in general in terms of recovering from Covid, but not on dvc. DVC is a luxury item and people are scaling back some. Plus, wdw is still providing a reduced experience. GC and AUL are not even open.

 

[CastAStone]

I’ve become extremely bearish on the future of DVC prices, and the economy in general. The company just laid off 28,000 people and that included entire divisions of DVC.

I’ve begun to rethink how the economy will impact DVC prices, at least in the next 8-12 months.

We’re in the strangest economy, maybe ever?

Tens of millions of people have become unemployed or underemployed, many losing low wage jobs but many not, and these people are in A horrible personal economic situation.

Tens of millions more have huge anxiety about eventually being impacted.

BUT

We have this bizarre and uncharacteristic situation where many people, perhaps the majority of people, are stashing away more money than they’ve been able to for their entire lives. They have reasonably secure job (most people do), they haven’t been spending money on vacations, or fashion, or work clothes, or Fine dining, generally much at all. AND the government sent them a decent check this spring (and might send another?). So they are flush with cash and excited To live large when all this is over.

The first two groups may be selling DVC, but the last group is buying.

I don’t think we will reach tipping point where prices drop until most people start to take the big vacation and dine out and buy new shoes and generally start spending their excess cash again. At that point I do expect we will see supply exceed demand and prices fall. But it will be a while, it seems.

 

[CLE2WDW]

If you are very worried about ROFR, I’d wait a couple of months before putting in offers. I’ve become extremely bearish on the future of DVC prices, and the economy in general. The company just laid off 28,000 people and that included entire divisions of DVC. They may be buying back contracts right now due to a short term spike in demand for buyers who want to get in before the blue card minimum increases to 125, but I expect that demand to fizzle out pretty quickly. I don’t think DVC resale or direct have felt the full pain of this economic disaster created by Covid yet. DVC can’t continue to support itself primarily on sales to existing members. They need fresh buyers in the parks to feed their machine, and it is going to be an extended period of time before they all come back again. YMMV.

I agree with your stance. The backlog of DVC points will continue likely into summer of 2021 with a large percentage of DVC owners uncomfortable/unable to travel. We have experienced a small recovery but I think by Early 2021 there will be a significant correction in the DVC resale market. I think DVC owners are in for a shock when they get their bills for 2021 MFs and this will encourage many owners to sell their contracts.

 

[EM Lawrence]

This is definitely a weird economy. Take a hard position on it only if you are willing to eat some humble pie.

But on the flip side, all those people who are not eating out or buying shoes or buying new clothes are impacting the bottom line of a company somewhere that normally would have made that sale. And there will eventually be ripple effects from all of that lack of spending. I think some sectors of the economy are very secure, or even booming, but I suspect a lot more are less secure than we realize right this moment.

I’ll happily eat these words if I’m wrong.

 

[Lva5]

I’ve only been on the SL half a dozen times, but it experienced brief stops every single time. I was always so relieved to hear the message that we were about to start moving again, because I still have not forgotten that nightmare of people getting stuck for 3 hours in the air when it first opened. I was in another Disney chat group with one of the people stuck onboard, and he was giving us live updates. They were in the gondola with about 7 people, their party plus another party. That is pretty crowded for those gondolas. Fortunately, that has not happened again!

They will slow it down for issues at the station (someone has trouble loading) but they wouldn't stop it with people on board. If they need to bring it down for, say, inclement weather they stop loading and wait for everyone to cycle off... you made it sound like they just mash the STOP button and if you're on it, tough luck.

It did have that issue you describe right after it opened but that was a malfunction and not intentional. I don't think it has happened since.

 

[EM Lawrence]

They will slow it down for issues at the station (someone has trouble loading) but they wouldn't stop it with people on board. If they need to bring it down for, say, inclement weather they stop loading and wait for everyone to cycle off... you made it sound like they just mash the STOP button and if you're on it, tough luck.

It did have that issue you describe right after it opened but that was a malfunction and not intentional. I don't think it has happened since.

You read something into my words that are not there. They do stop it briefly with people on board to load at the stations. I believe the RIV station does not have a special loading dock for people that require ECVs or wheelchairs, and they need to stop the line briefly to load those gondolas. It has happened every time I’ve ridden it. The stops have been brief, but it was not a slow down. It was a full stop with announcements that the SL was stopping and then announcements that it was about to start moving again.

For inclement weather, they do unload all of the gondolas before they stop running it. Of course they do that.

 

[Dean]

This is definitely a weird economy. Take a hard position on it only if you are willing to eat some humble pie.

But on the flip side, all those people who are not eating out or buying shoes or buying new clothes are impacting the bottom line of a company somewhere that normally would have made that sale. And there will eventually be ripple effects from all of that lack of spending. I think some sectors of the economy are very secure, or even booming, but I suspect a lot more are less secure than we realize right this moment.

I’ll happily eat these words if I’m wrong.

It took a good couple of years for 08/09 to reach it's full effect, there's no reason to think this time won't be any different. It appears a lot of people have self medicated by buying stuff which will prop up the economy for a while. There have also been blocks on evictions and foreclosures that have delayed the inevitable for many. And then there's those PPP Loans/Grants which are unlikely to be converted from loans to grants for many, possible for anyone. And a host of other factors. Tickle down economics will prove out in the end, it always does. My prediction is it will take time for the full effect to settle in this time as well and we haven't seen anything yet in terms of pain. And I'd be happy to eat those words after the 5-7 years this is likely to take to settle out.

 

[CastAStone]

This is definitely a weird economy. Take a hard position on it only if you are willing to eat some humble pie.

But on the flip side, all those people who are not eating out or buying shoes or buying new clothes are impacting the bottom line of a company somewhere that normally would have made that sale. And there will eventually be ripple effects from all of that lack of spending. I think some sectors of the economy are very secure, or even booming, but I suspect a lot more are less secure than we realize right this moment.

I’ll happily eat these words if I’m wrong.

I agree, but key word eventually. I think it will be a while yet. I previously had thought we’d see prices falling meaningfully late this fall or this winter.

 

[Where'sPiglet?]

I agree with your stance. The backlog of DVC points will continue likely into summer of 2021 with a large percentage of DVC owners uncomfortable/unable to travel. We have experienced a small recovery but I think by Early 2021 there will be a significant correction in the DVC resale market. I think DVC owners are in for a shock when they get their bills for 2021 MFs and this will encourage many owners to sell their contracts.

Why do you think this? I'm curious.

 

[Cabius]

Do not pay 2020 member fees. If broker pushes back just go to another broker. There are brokers who do not push back on that.

Out of curiosity, are there brokers known for a stance one way or another?

I’m looking at submitting an offer on a Fidelity contract in the next week. My assumption has been that the seller pays (really already has paid) dues on banked 2019 and 2020 points, but I’m trying to grab as much intel as possible!

 

[Hjs33]

Tens of millions of people have become unemployed or underemployed, many losing low wage jobs but many not, and these people are in A horrible personal economic situation.

Tens of millions more have huge anxiety about eventually being impacted.

BUT

We have this bizarre and uncharacteristic situation where many people, perhaps the majority of people, are stashing away more money than they’ve been able to for their entire lives. They have reasonably secure job (most people do), they haven’t been spending money on vacations, or fashion, or work clothes, or Fine dining, generally much at all. AND the government sent them a decent check this spring (and might send another?). So they are flush with cash and excited To live large when all this is over.

The first two groups may be selling DVC, but the last group is buying.

I‘ve had a similar take. Although its been bad for tens of millions of mostly restaurant, travel, and store employees, for most people the downturn hasn’t really hit them financially. DVC is probably more of a middle class purchase, I think for most middle class families they have only been slightly impacted and have probably saved quite a bit from reduced travel and dinning out. Personally myself, working from home the past 6 months has also allowed our family to save a substantial amount on daycare costs and we canceled two vacations. So now we’re a little flush with cash, so the thought of adding on some points to DVC has crossed our minds.

 

[Red Dog Run]

hmmm.. if you look at ROFR thread from June-Sept, AKV does not get anywhere near the dvcresales "sales" pricing. maybe they have lots of small AKV contracts, for which I could see the higher pricing. I don't recall seeing anyone on disboards paying $118-120 for a 160 points in the summer.

I paid 100 for AKV per point. I thought it was a GREAT deal. I could not get that low for OKW! I paid 107, 110, then 165 direct for the blue card 100 pt min. I bought 4 contracts in all, and when I added all my purchases, it came out to 129 average ppt. I'm ok with that. Many got better, many paid higher. It's kind of like what was available at that moment for my use month, etc. Also, I did not realize I wanted more points as I began. My research should have been more complete. I bought 2 contracts for 70 points each at OKW. I would have come out much better getting a single 150.

 

[Turn the Page]

I’ve begun to rethink how the economy will impact DVC prices, at least in the next 8-12 months.

We’re in the strangest economy, maybe ever?

Tens of millions of people have become unemployed or underemployed, many losing low wage jobs but many not, and these people are in A horrible personal economic situation.

Tens of millions more have huge anxiety about eventually being impacted.

BUT

We have this bizarre and uncharacteristic situation where many people, perhaps the majority of people, are stashing away more money than they’ve been able to for their entire lives. They have reasonably secure job (most people do), they haven’t been spending money on vacations, or fashion, or work clothes, or Fine dining, generally much at all. AND the government sent them a decent check this spring (and might send another?). So they are flush with cash and excited To live large when all this is over.

The first two groups may be selling DVC, but the last group is buying.

I don’t think we will reach tipping point where prices drop until most people start to take the big vacation and dine out and buy new shoes and generally start spending their excess cash again. At that point I do expect we will see supply exceed demand and prices fall. But it will be a while, it seems.

This is us. DH manages a grocery store so he has been working crazy hours through this entire mess and business is booming. We have been able to pay things off faster than we otherwise would have and come spring time we are buying.

 

[Dean]

Out of curiosity, are there brokers known for a stance one way or another?

I’m looking at submitting an offer on a Fidelity contract in the next week. My assumption has been that the seller pays (really already has paid) dues on banked 2019 and 2020 points, but I’m trying to grab as much intel as possible!

It seems that all that specialize in DVC take this approach though some are more hardline than others. It baffles me somewhat that they do because it's clear that DVC charges dues on a calendar year basis, NOT a UY basis. Historically it probably started from the weeks timeshare system where the "you get the week, you pay the points" was and still is the standard. I realize it makes it cleaner and less complicated to take the same approach but they should at least acknowledge the situation. The reality is that MOST people who buy in overpay on dues and are effectively paying dues on points they didn't have. You just have to look at the overall cost and savings and compare.

I paid 100 for AKV per point. I thought it was a GREAT deal. I could not get that low for OKW! I paid 107, 110, then 165 direct for the blue card 100 pt min. I bought 4 contracts in all, and when I added all my purchases, it came out to 129 average ppt. I'm ok with that. Many got better, many paid higher. It's kind of like what was available at that moment for my use month, etc. Also, I did not realize I wanted more points as I began. My research should have been more complete. I bought 2 contracts for 70 points each at OKW. I would have come out much better getting a single 150.

I've preached on this for years. Historically the savings of one 150 over two 75 has been substantial unless you could find them from a single owner and do a single closing. Over the years it's been roughly a $10 PP difference though variable. Plus, IMO, one should never buy planning to resell though they should at least consider the option as part of their planning. And paying more for legacy options is usually not a good choice. My view is that if you think you need 100, you should probably buy around 150 as a single if it's one resort. Plus one should almost always but a cushion of 10-20% (rarely even more) until you get up to 200-300 or so and that as you get to more volume, you don't need much or any cushion and that in many cases for larger volumes, one should buy less than they think they need. Put another way I think that it's quite common for those who are overly worried about the costs and/or focusing on special view options to buy less than they should and those who's emotions take over, buy too much, too many resorts, etc. I think it's also quite common that emotions often lead one to buying more in terms of which home resort as well. If one is looking at multiple home resorts or a larger volume of points, may as well buy one and try it out before buying more unless they are already well versed in the actual usage through direct experience.

 

[EYL]

Out of curiosity, are there brokers known for a stance one way or another?

I’m looking at submitting an offer on a Fidelity contract in the next week. My assumption has been that the seller pays (really already has paid) dues on banked 2019 and 2020 points, but I’m trying to grab as much intel as possible!

My resale purchase was through Fidelity and they were okay with sellers paying for MF's for previous UY banked points. When making the offer, just be very clear: $XXX per point and the seller pays for YYY. The contract should state so clearly as well. My offer was made in December and when I called to follow up on my online offer, the agent even seemed surprised that I reiterated this. I found Fidelity to be pleasant to work with. The title company they preferred was slow and is a different story.

 

[Dean]

My resale purchase was through Fidelity and they were okay with sellers paying for MF's for previous UY banked points. When making the offer, just be very clear: $XXX per point and the seller pays for YYY. The contract should state so clearly as well. My offer was made in December and when I called to follow up on my online offer, the agent even seemed surprised that I reiterated this. I found Fidelity to be pleasant to work with. The title company they preferred was slow and is a different story.

I think there are 2 issues here, what the fees are and who pays them. My comments were more directed at the calculation of what the fees should be on the resale.