Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[WanderlustinFP]

Theres a few dozen here but they are almost all ridiculously overpriced. You'll probably find better prices shopping around.

Thanks. I've looked at that site and thought the same regarding their prices.

 

[UtahDon]

It is strange. AKL has 7.4 million points available which is not a small amount but there are very few contracts coming to market. AKL is the only "bus" resort we would consider so maybe there are a bunch of people thinking the same way?

I agree that the market seems to have very few AKV contracts. I purchased a 120 point contract a few weeks ago, still waiting on ROFR.

I had watched the market for similar contracts for 2 months and every time a small point AKV contract came up, it sold within HOURS with several offers placed. I tried to put in an offer on a 100 point contract 90 minutes after it was posted, only to be told the seller had already accepted a full-price offer. The prices are still steady for AKV, at least with smaller contracts, because of simple supply and demand. I think people in the market for more DVC points, like myself, as well as many owners are simply unaffected by the virus economic downturn, or have been able to withstand it. People losing jobs, and desperate for cash, are typically working in the service industry and travel sector... I think many people with career-level office jobs, tech jobs, and professional jobs, are just working from home at full pay.

I paid a few dollars per point more than I wanted, but it was a "perfect" contract for me in terms of points and use year. I was not going to let a few hundred dollars effect something I knew I would keep and use for decades.

 

[striker1064]

AKL is the only resort I want because it's my favorite WDW resort and I would always be happy to stay there if I couldn't book elsewhere. I'm likewise looking for a small 100-125 resale contract with a Sep-Oct Use Year but I won't pay more than $90pp. If prices don't go that low, then I guess I won't be buying DVC.

We went through the same thing a few months ago - targeting a 75 - 120 point AKV Oct UY. I only ever saw one at 120 and it went fast, at $120/pp if I remember correctly. Because of the glut of 160 point contracts available, we kept making offers on Oct UY 160 contract until we got one we wanted at a price we were happy with - $102/pp. It ended up not being that much more money for 40 more points.

There's a definite line where it doesn't make any sense to pay a premium for a smaller contract unless you get a seller desperate to sell fast, and for AKV that seems to be smaller than 160 (because there are so many of those).

 

[bookwormde]

5/26 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 100-120% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[RoseGold]

Well, there goes VGF at $140. Still waiting on those "higher" prices to show up...

 

[miTnosnhoJ]

I looked at a sample of VGF contracts recorded at the Orange County Controller's in May. The range was from $160 to $200 per point. The $200 was for a 25 point contract. Keep in mind that for these to be recorded in May, they were likely negotiated before the pandemic hit. It will be real interesting to track the market in June and July.

 

[CastAStone]

I looked at a sample of VGF contracts recorded at the Orange County Controller's in May. The range was from $160 to $200 per point. The $200 was for a 25 point contract. Keep in mind that for these to be recorded in May, they were likely negotiated before the pandemic hit. It will be real interesting to track the market in June and July.

How does one do that?

 

[hlhlaw07]

How does one do that?

Just do a search of the recorded deeds. You can figure out the price paid by looking at the document deed tax.

 

[miTnosnhoJ]

How does one do that?

Checking Disney Resales:

Go to Orange County Comptroller's Site Here:
https://www.occompt.com/services/records-search/
Click ACCEPT to accept the disclaimer.

Now you should see the Document Search interface

Enter a Start and End date for your search

Uncheck the box to enable search for specific document types. Choose "Deeds"

Click "Advanced"

In the Legal Remarks field, type "Grand Floridian". Note: you might get some miscellaneous extra stuff using this search. If you want to narrow the search, you can type "TS: VILLAS AT DISNEY S GRAND FLORIDIAN RESORT " in the legal remarks field. I would try both just to make sure you don't miss anything.

This will give you a list of all the Deeds recorded in the period of time you specified above.

Now it gets a little tricky.

Disney Direct Sales will have "DISNEY VACATION DEVELOPMENT INC" as the Grantor. Resales will have someone's name, or a husband and wife, or their trust, etc.

Over on the right, you will see where you can click to "View Image". This will enable you to see a specific deed.

You will want to scrutinize the deed to find out the selling price and the number of points. Many title companies will include both of these.

However, some title companies, and Disney, will put in "$10 and other valuable presents" for the sales price, so you have to do some more digging.

If you can find the number of points attached to the contract, you can calculate the sales price by looking at the Document Deed Tax. The Document Deed Tax is .70 % amount of the sales price. So if you know the amount of the document deed tax, you can divide by .007 to get the purchase price (plus or minus a few $).

Now that you know the purchase price, you divide by the number of points to get a price per point. For a resale deed, you might see a statement like "Purchaser's ownership interest shall be symbolized as 125". This means they bought a contract with 125 points.

Deeds with Disney Vacation Development as Grantor may not show the number of points, but the price for Direct Sales is generally published by Disney.

If you see a document tax of $0.00, it usually means a gratuitous transfer, such as a transfer within a family, or from a husband and wife to their living trust, etc.

There are other special cases, such as a foreclosures. I can't remember off the top of my head all the nuances of those.

 

[CastAStone]

Checking Disney Resales:

Go to Orange County Comptroller's Site Here:
https://www.occompt.com/services/records-search/
Click ACCEPT to accept the disclaimer.

Now you should see the Document Search interface

Enter a Start and End date for your search

Uncheck the box to enable search for specific document types. Choose "Deeds"

Click "Advanced"

In the Legal Remarks field, type "Grand Floridian". Note: you might get some miscellaneous extra stuff using this search. If you want to narrow the search, you can type "TS: VILLAS AT DISNEY S GRAND FLORIDIAN RESORT " in the legal remarks field. I would try both just to make sure you don't miss anything.

This will give you a list of all the Deeds recorded in the period of time you specified above.

Now it gets a little tricky.

Disney Direct Sales will have "DISNEY VACATION DEVELOPMENT INC" as the Grantor. Resales will have someone's name, or a husband and wife, or their trust, etc.

Over on the right, you will see where you can click to "View Image". This will enable you to see a specific deed.

You will want to scrutinize the deed to find out the selling price and the number of points. Many title companies will include both of these.

However, some title companies, and Disney, will put in "$10 and other valuable presents" for the sales price, so you have to do some more digging.

If you can find the number of points attached to the contract, you can calculate the sales price by looking at the Document Deed Tax. The Document Deed Tax is .70 % amount of the sales price. So if you know the amount of the document deed tax, you can divide by .007 to get the purchase price (plus or minus a few $).

Now that you know the purchase price, you divide by the number of points to get a price per point. For a resale deed, you might see a statement like "Purchaser's ownership interest shall be symbolized as 125". This means they bought a contract with 125 points.

Deeds with Disney Vacation Development as Grantor may not show the number of points, but the price for Direct Sales is generally published by Disney.

If you see a document tax of $0.00, it usually means a gratuitous transfer, such as a transfer within a family, or from a husband and wife to their living trust, etc.

There are other special cases, such as a foreclosures. I can't remember off the top of my head all the nuances of those.

Not all heroes wear capes*! Thank you!

*although I don't know for sure that you do not.

 

[EYL]

If you can find the number of points attached to the contract, you can calculate the sales price by looking at the Document Deed Tax. The Document Deed Tax is .70 % amount of the sales price. So if you know the amount of the document deed tax, you can divide by .007 to get the purchase price (plus or minus a few $).

Now that you know the purchase price, you divide by the number of points to get a price per point. For a resale deed, you might see a statement like "Purchaser's ownership interest shall be symbolized as 125". This means they bought a contract with 125 points.

Just an FYI in case you'll find it easier. The Orange County Comptroller's website also has a fee calculator that will allow you to calculate the estimated sales price. You can have a second window open instead of using your calculator:

https://www.occompt.com/official-records/fee-calculators/estimated-purchase-price/

 

[miTnosnhoJ]

Not all heroes wear capes*! Thank you!

*although I don't know for sure that you do not.

I forget to mention, looking at prices this way is a great way to study the entire market. The downside is that you cannot tell if contracts are loaded or stripped or in between. So I use this as a tool to see what offers are reasonable.

I supplement this information with entries in the ROFR thread. The ROFR thread is a small percentage of deals, but you do get info about available points by year. ROFR is less helpful than you would expect though. You would expect a stripped contract to go for less than a loaded contract, but it is less correlated than you think, and to the extent it is correlated, it may be because ROFR thread users have more market information than the typical buyer. Also, ROFR is interesting because it is 2-3 months ahead of the OC site.

I ignore all broker-provided information. It is in their interest to make the market appear higher than it is. One way they do this is to selectively report deals. They will almost never report all deals, only their own.
I use the Broker’s asking price as an indication of how difficult the negotiation is likely to be. If the broker has priced the contract will above the market, then I know the seller will not take a market offer until it has been sitting for a couple of months with no offers.

Also, this method is less helpful in a time of rapid change, like now, where we all sense that prices are falling. The legal recording is a lagging indicator.

At some point, you find the perfect contract for your situation, and you just decide to make it happen. But you do so with knowledge of what if reasonable.

 

[EM Lawrence]

Www.dvcresalemarket.com has been loading up new contracts for sale this afternoon. I guess the news about WDW reopening is prompting sellers to come to market.

 

[becauseimnew]

Www.dvcresalemarket.com has been loading up new contracts for sale this afternoon. I guess the news about WDW reopening is prompting sellers to come to market.

But nothing that fits my wants... there was a 75pt BWV for $128 but that lasted less than 30 minutes.

 

[EM Lawrence]

But nothing that fits my wants... there was a 75pt BWV for $128 but that lasted less than 30 minutes.

Do you have their app? If you see something that you really want, and you are the first to make a full price offer, it is automatically accepted, even if higher offers are made after yours. But you have to be the first one to do it, so the app can be really useful.

 

[becauseimnew]

Do you have their app? If you see something that you really want, and you are the first to make a full price offer, it is automatically accepted, even if higher offers are made after yours. But you have to be the first one to do it, so the app can be really useful.

yes, I didn't know that rule. Thanks. I guess I really need to talk to DH about what he's willing to buy without me waiting for him to reply to my text.

 

[TinkB278]

so weird to me that all these listings are popping up all at once.

 

[Brianstl]

so weird to me that all these listings are popping up all at once.

My guess is they were telling sellers to hold off on listing until there was a reopening plan in hopes of keeping prices up some.

 

[TinkB278]

My guess is they were telling sellers to hold off on listing until there was a reopening plan in hopes of keeping prices up some.

I bet you’re right. That makes me just want to hold off on buying.

 

[TinkB278]

I bet you’re right. That makes me just want to hold off on buying.

My guess is they were telling sellers to hold off on listing until there was a reopening plan in hopes of keeping prices up some.

Although now that I’m thinking about it, won’t having a large number of contracts available also lower the price due to the supply being greater? It’s just such an odd occurrence to me.