Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[CastAStone]

When do you predict they could drop even more? Early 2021? We already have a trip booked but then we are looking at all that cash thinking it could've went towards DVC and then of course if we bought one with points left we could still go.

I think most people who are predicting a decline think will start in earnest towards the end of this year or early next year. But don’t expect prices to freefall. If they do decline, it’s much more likely it will happen at a measured pace over time.

 

[emilymad]

When do you predict they could drop even more? Early 2021? We already have a trip booked but then we are looking at all that cash thinking it could've went towards DVC and then of course if we bought one with points left we could still go.

I have no basis for my predictions but I feel like everything, including WDW trips, are in a holding pattern until we see what happens. Right now dues have been paid, maybe people have trips booked, jobs are a wait and see. If I didn't have to sell a contract I would wait it out and see what happens. Once MF are due it gets a little more serious for people. I personally don't have a time frame but a price I think it would be fair to pay. Maybe we hit that number, maybe we don't....

I also think reservation availability is going to get really tight in the next few years. Between lots of people are sitting on points and the 50th coming up I am personally not betting on being able to get the exact reservation I may want.

I am looking for a stripped contract at the right price. Extra points do me personally no good right now.

 

[RanDIZ]

It seems like price drops have slowed or stopped. March and April were the panic selling months where some good deals could be had. There’s less inventory now which seems to be bumping prices back up.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

It seems like price drops have slowed or stopped. March and April were the panic selling months where some good deals could be had. There’s less inventory now which seems to be bumping prices back up.

It was interesting to watch what was listed during that time. It seemed to be heavy on SSR and OKW which makes me think it was largely people unloading their "sleep around points" instead of people that really needed to sell.

I feel like we've already seen the bottom or it gets way way worse from here. We'll probably have a good idea later this year after the $600/week unemployment benefits have expired and we're back to the "new normal" whatever that looks like.

 

[Brianstl]

It seems like price drops have slowed or stopped. March and April were the panic selling months where some good deals could be had. There’s less inventory now which seems to be bumping prices back up.

It appears that the sales volume has dropped, at least compared to what we normally see in this thread. I think both sellers and buyers have both pulled back. On yesterday's The DVC Show Jerry mentioned that buyers are really trying to hammer down prices right now, but sellers are not desperate right now either. I don't think it is so much that buyers are trying to hammer down prices. I think it is more that buyers are offering what they are willing to spend given the current economic situation and I don't see a increase on what they are willing to pay coming soon. If anything I think the majority of the offers are going to start going even lower. I think that means we are going to be left with a very low volume of resale sales for the next few months until sellers get tired of waiting to sell or have to sell. The overall demand just isn't there to buy at the current prices and owners don't feel a need yet to sell at a lower price.

 

[lovethesun12]

It appears that the sales volume has dropped, at least compared to what we normally see in this thread. I think both sellers and buyers have both pulled back. On yesterday's The DVC Show Jerry mentioned that buyers are really trying to hammer down prices right now, but sellers are not desperate right now either. I don't think it is so much that buyers are trying to hammer down prices. I think it is more that buyers are offering what they are willing to spend given the current economic situation and I don't see a increase on what they are willing to pay coming soon. If anything I think the majority of the offers are going to start going even lower. I think that means we are going to be left with a very low volume of resale sales for the next few months until sellers get tired of waiting to sell or have to sell. The overall demand just isn't there to buy at the current prices and owners don't feel a need yet to sell at a lower price.

I think you nailed it.

 

[DVC Doctor]

The overall demand just isn't there to buy at the current prices and owners don't feel a need yet to sell at a lower price.

Wait until the annual dues statements go out

 

[Heather07438]

We were ready to buy our first contract. Not anymore. Unless something glamorous comes along, we are now in no hurry. There's more possible con's than pro's for us.

I think prices are likely to go lower before they ever start increasing again. So why lock in now with so much uncertainty?
The perks of DVC just aren't as valuable for the time being.
Availability could be tense over the next 12-30 months.
WDW reminded us that being a cash guest can have huge advantages over DVC.

It doesn't feel like we're missing out on much right now. Membership is still a likely goal, just not a priority anytime soon.

 

[MamaBear12]

My wife has been rabidly watching the listings / sales and it's been pretty amazing how quickly they are being moved to "pending". We are really on the fence right now as we have considered buying for a few years. It's almost like if we don't... in a year or two we will be kicking ourselves. It's been really tough making a decision!

Anyone else on the fence?

We’re on the fence. I’ve wanted to buy for the last 5 years, but we weren’t in a position to until the last year or so. Now we’re ready to buy, but due to current uncertainty we’re not going to dive in yet. I think we’ll end up buying later this year, but not until there’s either a decent price drop or some idea of what the future of Covid and resort availability will look like.

 

[bookwormde]

6/30 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 240-250% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[Orion Nebula]

6/30 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 240-250% of average*

Wow, I noticed some not so great deals on many that don't seem to be moving. I guess the sellers just have wishful thinking.

 

[DaveNan]

Wow, I noticed some not so great deals on many that don't seem to be moving. I guess the sellers just have wishful thinking.

Maybe the brokers are telling the sellers how strong the market is too.

 

[Hopfather28]

I was one of the lucky ones to pick up a panic sell in early May. I have one of three contracts at $120pp for Poly over in the ROFR thread. I do believe we haven't seen the end of the drops but the fact that prices have stabilized or in many cases rebounded some tells me the staying power of DVC is real. The next 18 months at Disney are definitely going to be very different but much like airlines and banks...Disney is "too big to fail."

The way I see it is if the park reservations I've made for my 2021 vacation really are needed then there is reduced capacity which is good. If they aren't, then we are back to some sense of normalcy which is good. Just gotta be positive at this point in time. At least the castle won't be a birthday cake for the 50th.

 

[lovethesun12]

I was one of the lucky ones to pick up a panic sell in early May. I have one of three contracts at $120pp for Poly over in the ROFR thread. I do believe we haven't seen the end of the drops but the fact that prices have stabilized or in many cases rebounded some tells me the staying power of DVC is real. The next 18 months at Disney are definitely going to be very different but much like airlines and banks...Disney is "too big to fail."

The way I see it is if the park reservations I've made for my 2021 vacation really are needed then there is reduced capacity which is good. If they aren't, then we are back to some sense of normalcy which is good. Just gotta be positive at this point in time. At least the castle won't be a birthday cake for the 50th.

I remember when you were in the market for that contract because it's similar to what I'm looking for. May I ask what the listed price was for your contract?

 

[Hopfather28]

I remember when you were in the market for that contract because it's similar to what I'm looking for. May I ask what the listed price was for your contract?

Listed at $148. I had put a top dollar of $130 and offered $120 expecting some negotiations. Seller accepted in 5 minutes.

 

[lovethesun12]

Listed at $148. I had put a top dollar of $130 and offered $120 expecting some negotiations. Seller accepted in 5 minutes.

That's awesome! Thanks for sharing =)

 

[manicstreet]

Listed at $148. I had put a top dollar of $130 and offered $120 expecting some negotiations. Seller accepted in 5 minutes.

Amazing! This is a deal i am hoping to score this fall. We will see.

 

[bookwormde]

Below are the approximate averages from 3/31, 4/15, 4/30, 5/15, 5/31 and 6/30 for each resort for reduced contracts The data used is from the 2 largest resellers

The sample size for some resorts is getting small, also 1 or 2 contracts that are more than 20 above the average are impacting the averages



Reduced

……3/31 4/15 4/30 5/15 5/31 6/30



AKV 110 109 109 104 96 ND

AUL 97 93 92 96 93 93

BLT 144 146 146 145 145 144

BCV 138 137 140 142 143 136

BWV 118 118 116 114 113 114

BRV 100 ND 94 94 94 94

CCV 148 150 150 148 128 146

VGF 168 168 168 168 166 166

HH 74 74 74 74 73 71

OKW 95 94 93 93 92 93

POLY 143 144 144 144 142 145

SS 102 98 101 101 102 100

VB 62 62 63 63 65 66

 

[bookwormde]

Below are the approximate averages from 3/31, 4/15, 4/30, 5/15, 5/31 and 6/30 for each resort for pending contracts The data used is from the 2 largest resellers

Since the variance between pending numbers and actual selling price si large, these should be viewed for their trend value whereas the sale prices from the ROFR threads and other sources are likely more useful for setting offer levels

Pending

……3/31 4/15 4/30 5/15 5/31 6/30



AKV 109 108 109 109 109 110

AUL 96 97 97 96 97 95

BLT 137 141 144 143 143 144

BCV 140 138 140 140 138 140

BWV 118 121 121 120 119 120

BRV 98 98 97 97 98 99

CCV 147 147 150 151 151 150

VGF 164 163 161 163 165 163

HH 75 76 75 78 76 75

OKW 93 93 93 92 94 94

POLY 146 146 146 146 146 149

SS 101 101 102 102 101 102

VB 71 67 67 67 68 66

 

[bookwormde]

7/1 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 360-380% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.