Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[JETSDAD]

I don’t think anyone should overthink this , if I’m reading the numbers correctly there are double to triple number of contracts YOY hitting the market in very uncertain economic times , there is no real driver to meet that demand, and prices will probably fall significantly, am I missing something at the macro level?
One more thing - one artificial demand driver (Disney ROFR) has been eliminated

I don't think the numbers are a YOY comparison but rather a comparison to an average from a random set of dates (the 6 months before Covid hit if I recall correctly). It's also on a daily basis rather than an average of say a month. On any given day you can see a group of listings hit the market or you can see next to nothing. Without averaging that over the course of some period of time it can give a very skewed picture (either way). It also doesn't take into account the rate at which the listings sell. If a lot of new listings are showing up but they are also selling then you're not going to see a significant drop in pricing. Now if there are many new listings every day and far fewer contracts being sold, then you may see a decline in pricing.

 

[poofyo101]

It actually seems like despite the amount of new listings, the amount of available listings is still less than it use to be.

 

[bookwormde]

7/3 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 180-200% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[bookwormde]

7/4 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 30-40% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[bookwormde]

7/5 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 100-120% of average*

For the week of 6/29 to 7/5 newly posted resale contracts at about 230% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

dvcresalemarket reporting a 3rd month in a row with no ROFR actions taken by Disney:
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-june-20-report/

 

[_Iowa_]

dvcresalemarket reporting a 3rd month in a row with no ROFR actions taken by Disney:
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-june-20-report/

With two contracts currently in ROFR at what I think are decent prices I hope it stays that way for another month+

From what I have learned, they typically scoop up 10-20%. Is that correct? Based on the ROFR thread we're definitely in that range but I think given the current climate we should have a good chance of getting through on both.

 

[sethschroeder]

So, if we keep having weeks where the amount of listed contracts are 150-300% more than average, it's maybe a correct to assume a sea of contracts will eventually bring prices down?

I don't think this can be correctly assumed. For a while listed contracts were lower than average, we would also need to know what average number of contracts go up typically (is a 10% in resale contracts normal). More importantly what is being listed.

7/5 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 100-120% of average*

For the week of 6/22 to 6/28 newly posted resale contracts at about 230% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

Is there any potential to report more sporadically the breakdown of listed contracts vs average for individual resorts? Could Aulani, SSR, and OKW be skewing the numbers? Is there an influx of 2042 because there is more elderly owners possibly and thus do not want to travel in the coming years to Disney?

 

[CastAStone]

I don't think this can be correctly assumed. For a while listed contracts were lower than average, we would also need to know what average number of contracts go up typically (is a 10% in resale contracts normal). More importantly what is being listed.




Is there any potential to report more sporadically the breakdown of listed contracts vs average for individual resorts? Could Aulani, SSR, and OKW be skewing the numbers? Is there an influx of 2042 because there is more elderly owners possibly and thus do not want to travel in the coming years to Disney?

The number of contracts currently listed seems lower than say the 90 day moving average, but significantly higher than a month ago when resorts as large as AKL just couldn’t be found on a few of the major sites. I can look at my tracking today to see what’s popping as far as resorts, but bookworm’s tracking is much more comprehensive than mine is.

 

[heynowirv]

Yes I am thinking that most of the people buying now were already in the market before Covid or are existing members adding on or swapping out

I have been stalking BWV to add on to my OKW for several months so I definitely fall into that category.

 

[bookwormde]

[/QUOTE]
Is there any potential to report more sporadically the breakdown of listed contracts vs average for individual resorts? Could Aulani, SSR, and OKW be skewing the numbers? Is there an influx of 2042 because there is more elderly owners possibly and thus do not want to travel in the coming years to Disney?
[/QUOTE]

While there is variation, in general there is alignment between new listings and number of points at each resort, with that said, Aul and Poly do appear to be higher and BCV, BWV and BRV are lower.

 

[sethschroeder]

Interesting so possibly people are selling off excess contracts and keeping their lower point/stay resorts. Possibly they also are cashing in on more expensive resorts "before the market crashed" where they know they want to keep 150 but sell 150.

Also with AUL and POLY if you had purchased direct when your kids were 6-12 you would now have an empty nest and possibly people are dropping those points in preparation for not traveling for the next couple years.

 

[bookwormde]

The number of contracts currently listed seems lower than say the 90 day moving average, but significantly higher than a month ago when resorts as large as AKL just couldn’t be found on a few of the major sites. I can look at my tracking today to see what’s popping as far as resorts, but bookworm’s tracking is much more comprehensive than mine is.

There are definitely less AKV available, apparently from strong demand.

We may be slightly below the number of active listings from 90 days ago, but the trend over the last month has been a small increase in active contracts, which if it continues for a few more weeks will put us above where we were. My overall coutract tracking is partly direct numeric tracking and part "impression" from those resellers that are not induced on my spreadsheets

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/listings/ is one of the easiest to follow by checking the active listing only box in the refine you results by section

 

[bookwormde]

Interesting so possibly people are selling off excess contracts and keeping their lower point/stay resorts. Possibly they also are cashing in on more expensive resorts "before the market crashed" where they know they want to keep 150 but sell 150.

Also with AUL and POLY if you had purchased direct when your kids were 6-12 you would now have an empty nest and possibly people are dropping those points in preparation for not traveling for the next couple years.

I have noticed that there have been a signification number of owners selling multiple contracts (same resort, UY ,listed the same day), while 2, 3, or 4 is the most common, I have seen a few where 2x that number are being listed at the same time.

 

[Captain Trips]

There are definitely less AKV available, apparently from strong demand.

We may be slightly below the number of active listings from 90 days ago, but the trend over the last month has been a small increase in active contracts, which if it continues for a few more weeks will put us above where we were. My overall coutract tracking is partly direct numeric tracking and part "impression" from those resellers that are not induced on my spreadsheets

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/listings/ is one of the easiest to follow by checking the active listing only box in the refine you results by section

I’ve definitely seen the demand for animal kingdom increase. I’ve wondered if that has anything to do with the current situation of the parks, and people thinking about resort only stays. However a lot of the prices Ive seen are over priced IMO. Compounded with the fact that the dues are above average. I don’t believe a lot of buyers run all the numbers. The purchase price is a tiny fraction of what you’ll pay over the life of the contract.

 

[CastAStone]

I’ve definitely seen the demand for animal kingdom increase. I’ve wondered if that has anything to do with the current situation of the parks, and people thinking about resort only stays. However a lot of the prices Ive seen are over priced IMO. Compounded with the fact that the dues are above average. I don’t believe a lot of buyers run all the numbers. The purchase price is a tiny fraction of what you’ll pay over the life of the contract.

On a dues per room night basis (instead of per point) though it's gotta be on the cheap side.

 

[JETSDAD]

I’ve definitely seen the demand for animal kingdom increase. I’ve wondered if that has anything to do with the current situation of the parks, and people thinking about resort only stays. However a lot of the prices Ive seen are over priced IMO. Compounded with the fact that the dues are above average. I don’t believe a lot of buyers run all the numbers. The purchase price is a tiny fraction of what you’ll pay over the life of the contract.

AKV is about $.50/pt above the overall average (not including subsidized dues) and is lower than even OKW. I'll happily pay 50 cents per point to have a zoo out my window. With the point charts factored in it will be cheaper to stay there than most other resorts.

 

[becauseimnew]

We’ve been looking at AKL because of the low point for studios and the longer contract -2057... DH would prefer BRV but would need more points for a studio and contract expires 2042. For a little more we can get an additional 15 years.

 

[sethschroeder]

AKV is about $.50/pt above the overall average (not including subsidized dues) and is lower than even OKW. I'll happily pay 50 cents per point to have a zoo out my window. With the point charts factored in it will be cheaper to stay there than most other resorts.

AKV is an amazing resort if you don't plan on going to the parks. If you plan on going to the parks its a terrible resort for transportation outside of going to AK.

People will disagree that's fine but out of all the resorts I think its the one with the biggest requirement to stay there before you buy there to make sure you are happy.

That being said if I bought at AK I would plan on paying for Lyft/Uber for the next 40 years to get to the parks and account for that in the price.

 

[sethschroeder]

We’ve been looking at AKL because of the low point for studios and the longer contract -2057... DH would prefer BRV but would need more points for a studio and contract expires 2042. For a little more we can get an additional 15 years.

BRV is a harder one because CCV has the same points structure so it will always be a depressed resort price wise. On the flip side I own at BWV and CCV. On the BWV points I have a very strong feeling I can use it the next 10 years and if I wanted to I could then sell it and get my money back (yes I "lose" theoretical investment money but this money would never have been invested anyways it would have been spent on something else over the next 2-3 years).

Also our BWV contract expires when our kids likely graduate from college so that is perfect timing anyways to no longer be locked in to the extra points.

One additional thing I would do the math on is CCV (with incentives right now) and also account for the AP that you can get discounted then. Basically when we go in January then in December in a single year we can use a single AP for two trips and pocket the rest as savings.

Final note if you have not stayed at AKL before I would suggest you do before buying if possible. It is far out there, busses can really be hit and miss, and unless AK comprises the majority of your trip that can be a real downer.