WDW resort going forward

[lockedoutlogic]

Well this turned into a good thread... About time. I was getting bored.

I guess I am somewhat removed due to the fact that I don't pay the rates they charge for the deluxes. I don't think about it much, but it does amaze me that people pay rack rate.

You are right that there is (should be) a ceiling for these prices, but somehow it still gets paid. My position is more to sit back and watch, hope the prices keep going up, so when I go there are less people. The problem seems to be that this is not happening... yet? Between DVC, Fl resident passes, and no airfare, I am far from being priced out

I really enjoy the insight /info dumped here from several of you who have a great/ interesting perspective, but unfortunately for you, you seem to be trying to lead a revolution that is far from happening.

ahhh...history tells us that often times that revolts are put down at first...but if the movement is strong enough they eventually get it together. (dubious examples...i know...but i gotta go with what i got)

listen...frequent flyer miles, dvc annuals, take or leave it approach to merchandising and the bad dining, and cheap DVC (and getting better everyday) here...
i'm sitting in your section of the bleachers...no doubt.

but i am always aware of how others...shall we say..."non-budgetary zeal" effects the things i DO spend money on.
like the aforementioned passes and dining in particular. Not that i can't afford it or even begrudge disney from having it...but i know they can't stay off the pipe.

If you swallow the inflate of food associated with that offensive dining plan....and you say "the market dictates" on a $550 room at the poly...those are just the starting points...like a snowball at the top of mount everest.

i'm only part idealistic...also hiding in the weeds for my own evil plots

I would be less that 100% genuine if i professed my only concern is for those poor souls that gladly pay $795 a night on december 23 at the Grandoise...
they are in fact free to do it...just as long as they wear this hat = ( )

but there is the big picture here...
retreat to confuse and stand your ground when unexpected to win the battle/war

C'est le guerre!!!

 

[beer dave]

i hear you...

but then an "authentic hawaiian paradise" built out of concrete and fiberglass in...well...hawaii
still makes me chuckle.

And DCA was a little different...it was meant to encapsulate a bunch of different elements from and large, varying, and unique state inside one fence...
a little the same...but a much better idea in my opinion.

I always thought it was funny to build a simulated hawaii where outside the gates was a real hawaii.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I always thought it was funny to build a simulated hawaii where outside the gates was a real hawaii.

I completely agree...
And I also think it shows some arrogance.

 

[beer dave]

ahhh...history tells us that often times that revolts are put down at first...but if the movement is strong enough they eventually get it together. (dubious examples...i know...but i gotta go with what i got)

listen...frequent flyer miles, dvc annuals, take or leave it approach to merchandising and the bad dining, and cheap DVC (and getting better everyday) here...
i'm sitting in your section of the bleachers...no doubt.

but i am always aware of how others...shall we say..."non-budgetary zeal" effects the things i DO spend money on.
like the aforementioned passes and dining in particular. Not that i can't afford it or even begrudge disney from having it...but i know they can't stay off the pipe.

If you swallow the inflate of food associated with that offensive dining plan....and you say "the market dictates" on a $550 room at the poly...those are just the starting points...like a snowball at the top of mount everest.

i'm only part idealistic...also hiding in the weeds for my own evil plots

I would be less that 100% genuine if i professed my only concern is for those poor souls that gladly pay $795 a night on december 23 at the Grandoise...
they are in fact free to do it...just as long as they wear this hat = ( )

but there is the big picture here...
retreat to confuse and stand your ground when unexpected to win the battle/war

C'est le guerre!!!

It would certainly make for an interesting decade if your revolution would take form... first the lower crowds, then the increased offerings of package deals and even more special discounts--- maybe they could develop a special savings account where you have direct deposit taken monthly from your paycheck---or maybe a reverse mortgage on your house to pay for vacations until you die.... Or the pricing would have to return to normal, and the food quality would have to become closer to on par with quality, and the service would have to once again be top notch...

All seriousness, the idea is great, but aint gonna happen. Like you have said, they are already burying the actual value with a myriad of special discounts to where it takes a financial analyst to determine the best way to align your vacation spending. Control through confusion.

The base pricing will never come down. The discounts will just change to suit the market.

I think I am arguing your point now... need a lieutenant?

 

[Lewisc]

But, the Deluxe-to-DVC conversion makes even more sense as a precursor:

Deluxe have the biggest issue with occupancy, so a higher number of those rooms as DVC continues to decrease occ. rate risk, decrease expense line items, while increasing predictable income flow as unit sales percentages increase as a whole and by unit.

Risk aversion to both Disney and their prospective partner..

This raises a question to all of you DVC owners:

It would seem that Disney consolidating the DVC Points re-sale market in their favor would be a next logical and lucrative step to take once they hit a high unit sold percentage - it's definitely something an outsource partner would want firmly in their control since it's real money.

Just from a non-DVC owner looking from the outside in - is that something that concerns you - and could they even accomplish it?

Raise the room rates. Buying DVC, at $$$, appears to make sense to prospective buyers. Convert rooms to meet the demand. It sort of makes sense. DVC seems to be able to sell $$$ points making Disney far more money then they could ever earn renting those rooms.

After 9-11 there were rumors, maybe just speculation, that Disney might partner with Marriott (or some other timeshare company). Disney would make $$$ selling the points but let their partner handle the administration. The concern was the possibility of Marriott vacation club owners being able to book DVC properties, maybe at the same 7 month window for alll non owners of that resort. Maybe shrink the exclusive window down to one month.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I remember the Marriott rumors... And that still is a reasonable possibility in the future.

There was a little bit of panic at that time for
The travel Indistry...foolishly thinking that something would be "permanently altered" in travel.

But alas, some fake real estate and even more fake stock pricing and here we are a decade later...throwing even more money away...
USA! USA! USA!

Anyway...DVC was modeled most directly after marriotts timeshare...they never made too many bones about it... So the rumor was somewhat a no brainer...

But I agree that combining DVC access
With another system (other than interval or Rci exchange) would not be taken very well

 

[Lewisc]

Anyway...DVC was modeled most directly after marriotts timeshare...they never made too many bones about it... So the rumor was somewhat a no brainer...

But I agree that combining DVC access
With another system (other than interval or Rci exchange) would not be taken very well

Think about it. DVC guides (is Disney still using that term to refer to DVC salesman?) can show all the Marriott resorts DVC owners can book with their points. Marriott might pay Disney $$$ for a deal which lets Marriott owners book at 7 months. Buy where you want to stay will change from a good marketing slogan to almost a necessity. DVC owners at OKW, SSR, Vero Beach and Hilton Head might see the need to purchase points in other resorts. Disney could let the ROFR price per point drop very low for sales in those resorts.

 

[dinolounger]

I think the point of Aulani was to give DVC members from other properties the chance to use their points in Hawaii to help Disney capture some of that market.

Perhaps, but the problem is that only works if a large installed base of Aulani home resort owners can be established.

The slow sales have prevented that from happening, which has created a very vicious circle: existing DVC members with other home resorts (including yours truly) have found it difficult to get anything at Aulani at seven months, because there isn't an adequate base of Aulani owners looking to "trade" into my or other members home resorts (the critical "balance" dynamic the month seven benefit depends upon).

Which results in none of us experiencing the resort, which leads to little or none of us having interest in buying there or recommending it to others.

And no, I and others sure as you-know-what aren't going to pay crazy Disney rack rates just to test drive the place.

Which in essence has taken Aulani from being a beneficial addition for existing DVC members to instead a frustrating "tease:" a heavily hyped but generally inaccessible property.

 

[ArwenMarie]

Correct...
And the move will be to convert as much as possible to DVC and then take the remaining rack rooms and INCREASE the prices even further.

To cater to the "upper" end of the clientele who care not for price at all...

Doesn't affect me or you? Yes and no...

So those that save or have non-unlimited means to buy the rooms at say the poly... What's remaining of the "upper middle class" will be forced to continue to pay escalating fees or...big "or"...
Will run into the DVC buzz saw. (More likely)

Yep, DVC does both, turns empty rooms into cash and raises prices. Win-win for Disney.

I always thought the Deluxe rates were set that way (crazy) to justify the prices at the mods and values. I think all three categories of hotels are equal ripoffs. To a previous point, now I think the deluxe rates are set to make a DVC purchase look like a good deal.

Anyway, it's good that there are so many offsite hotel choices in Orlando. I'm also glad they didn't go full out with FP and onsite versus offsite, other than the booking windows. People really can vote with their wallets there. There are a lot of vacation destinations that are really limited in choice as far as lodging goes.

 

[clsteve]

After 9-11 there were rumors, maybe just speculation, that Disney might partner with Marriott (or some other timeshare company). Disney would make $$$ selling the points but let their partner handle the administration. The concern was the possibility of Marriott vacation club owners being able to book DVC properties, maybe at the same 7 month window for alll non owners of that resort. Maybe shrink the exclusive window down to one month.

I remember the Marriott rumors... And that still is a reasonable possibility in the future.

That would seem so far fetched to many - until you look at the numbers along with the tactical and strategic decision making history of this Exec Group.

Think what an almost immediate (in corporate time) 25-35% drop in headcount along with their payroll, benefits costs, pension plan liabilities, etc., would mean to the bottom line (and stock price). The Street would love it - I can hear the quotes now:

"Getting back to their core business..." "Now they can concentrate on what they do best....." "Getting lean and mean to compete in the re-energized global Theme Park market......" "A win win for Disney guests..." "Blah, blah-blah, blah blahh..."

It's a very complex transition and transaction, but not unprecedented or undo-able.

The Deal is the key. The Marriott's of the world know the game - it's their core business. Conversely, TWDC is known in the corporate world as tough to almost unrealistic when it comes to deals, negotiations, partnerships - to say the least (been there).

Way ahead of ourselves, I know - but, look at it this way - at least we would get our Marriott Points. And at those prices, that's a lot of points.....

 

[rteetz]

Jim Hill has a new Podcast with Len Testa out today. Guess what its all about DVC!

The first 30 minutes is basically him going over the history of DVC.

Then we get to what he thinks is coming according to his sources.

1. Caribbean Beach is looking at a 7 story tower of sorts that will be all DVC and include a bar/restuarant on the top where you can view illuminations.

2. This would also get a new boat access canal to epcot

3. Wilderness Lodge is next on the DVC list with just conversion of existing room and maybe some over water bungalows like the Poly. A new pool may come as well.

4. River Country DVC is supposedly back on the table. Plans were actually out there and were leaked in 2012ish. A DVC was supposed to go where river country is. This faced money issues and was thrown out. Now speculation is back is full force especially because height test gallons were recently seen in this area.

5. Beach and Yacht Club will see more DVC. This would also be just a conversion of existing rooms into DVC. Apparently according to Jim Hill those two resorts have an occupancy problem. Other sources have said Disney won't mess with the Yacht club because of its convention business. I would have to agree and I also don't think it has occupancy problems because of these conventions. Beach Club I could very well see getting more DVC rooms.

A lot of this goes along with what others are saying. Disney is not backing down from the DVC drug they have been on.

 

[profdsny]

I remember reading at least a half-dozen years ago about what is now refered to as Flamingo Crossing, and that Disney had brought and was planing on designing that area into sort of a DTD west. From googleing now, I see that in May plans were announced for development. NOW rumor is that it isn't going to happen? Why did they wait the six or seven years to first announce it and then can it?Or is this really going to go after all?

 

[rteetz]

I remember reading at least a half-dozen years ago about what is now refered to as Flamingo Crossing, and that Disney had brought and was planing on designing that area into sort of a DTD west. From googleing now, I see that in May plans were announced for development. NOW rumor is that it isn't going to happen? Why did they wait the six or seven years to first announce it and then can it?Or is this really going to go after all?

It was full go project they had renderings and everything. It wasn't so much a DTD more of a city center. They wanted to have hotels around it and shops and restaurants but nothing disney all outsiders. It was killed in 2008/2009 with the financial crisis when a lot of companies they had gotten on board pulled out. Now Marriott a few months ago filed permits to build two hotels on this land as disney has given them the land. Wdwmagic posted pictures of the land prepping recently. The whole flamingo crossings idea has been shown the door.

 

[Kilted_Yank]

If the executives at WDW really want to fill rooms they need to start putting more money into the parks. New Fantasyland is fine and the MyMagic+ system is great and all but we need more...

I think that one of the big challenges for Disney is that there are so many better value-for-money choices off-property.

We haven't stayed on-property in years (we bought at the Hilton Grand Vacation club years ago... which is still way better than DVC).

 

[jtwibih]

Indeed... As far as consolidating the resale market...that is a matter of time. I think they have "tolerated" the third party resales to this point... Like they used to with the ticket resale Booths on 192 and I-drive They'll strike at some point. ROFR is a powerful ace in the hole. It's already a bad deal with cost escalation...my advice to anyone is get a resale now if you are even remotely thinking of buying or adding. As far as why they still run the hotels? No right answer...but my guess is so they can fully outfit/max out DVC with autonomy. Then any future new construction happens only they have huge demand... Possible work the fla legislature so they can pre sell the whole thing.

I'm coming in late and saw this and wanted to post. My wife and I have gone back and forth about buying into DVC while keeping a lot of the thoughts expressed in this thread in mind. I have drank the Koolaid for years mainly because I didn't make my first visit until the 2000s. I didn't know anything before that point. However I have noticed significant changes most going the wrong direction with the parks and resorts. I have also wondered when Disney will take away the resale market. This leaves us torn. We still enjoy going every year and we'd be willing to buy in but I've started to wonder if even the resales are worth the investment. The cheap overlay that's going on at Maelstorm seems to define the way Disney wants to address their parks/resorts moving forward. This strategy is short term obviously with Disney being applauded for a 90% stock increase over the last 12 months. That's all well and good for those of us who bought in at one point but it's a middle finger to everyone else. The post above is exactly what I have been thinking but I have an angel/devil on the other shoulder urging me to save my money long term in case 1) Disney no longer has the appeal that moves me to visit every year or even every other year and 2) The resale market is eliminated somehow and I can't get rid of the investment

 

[tjkraz]

Jim Hill has a new Podcast with Len Testa out today. Guess what its all about DVC!

Gee, a lot of that sounds familiar...

http://dvcnews.com/index.php/resorts-48755/other-proposed-resorts-89555/2684-the-next-decade-of-dvc

I remember reading at least a half-dozen years ago about what is now refered to as Flamingo Crossing, and that Disney had brought and was planing on designing that area into sort of a DTD west. From googleing now, I see that in May plans were announced for development. NOW rumor is that it isn't going to happen? Why did they wait the six or seven years to first announce it and then can it?Or is this really going to go after all?

Most people seem to have the wrong impression about Flamingo Crossing's purpose. Calling it "DTD west" has always been very, very incorrect.

The idea with Flamingo Crossing was to build what appears to be a run-of-the-mill off-site shopping / lodging complex...but it would actually be on Disney property.

Disney would not own any hotels in Flamingo Crossing. You would not be able to board a bus at the Magic Kingdom or Animal Kingdom Lodge to reach Flamingo Crossing. It would not have a World of Disney store or an ESPN club.

Tenants could include anything from Target to Best Buy to Waffle House. Disney Cast Members were stated as a big target audience for Flamingo Crossing businesses. You could see grocery stores and quick lube outlets...services CMs would theoretically utilize on their way to-or-from work.

Assuming hoteliers build in that area (and I've read something very recently about permits to start work on hotels), they would be comparable to the Downtown Disney area non-Disney hotels. Hotels would have to contract with Disney to provide transportation, most likely would not get "on-site" benefits, etc.

Flamingo Crossing was just a way to take property on the fringes of WDW...outside the physical "gate" in fact...and make a buck. And Disney would also have the benefit of full control over design aspects of the property.

 

[rteetz]

Just so everyone is aware the villains unleashed event at DHS last night was a bust lots of people were very unhappy and disney was handing out refunds left and right.

 

[lavatea]

Just so everyone is aware the villains unleashed event at DHS last night was a bust lots of people were very unhappy and disney was handing out refunds left and right.

Care to elaborate?

 

[WDWChloe]

Care to elaborate?

From what I saw on IG, Disney didn't have a cap out point on tickets - lines to meet 1 popular villain was 3-4 hours long...just over crowded for a hard ticket event. You would think they would have set a limit after last year's "free" event.

 

[nuts]

(we bought at the Hilton Grand Vacation club years ago... which is still way better than DVC).

In your opinion.