Super Busy after Irma and Crowd Tracker Accuracy

[AndreaA]

I think it depends. I had to cancel because the Poly was already booked up and I didn't want to be scrambling for the primo dining reservations.

 

[wdw4rfam]

I'm there 16-28th and I'm expecting the crowds to be up from what they were supposed to be. But I don't care, I'm just glad it looks like we will still be able to go. We were booked 3-13th and switched it back in July. Feel like I dodged a bullet there (thanks sugar ray- DH wanted to switch to see them at Epcot). Don't stress it- those crowd accuracy levels aren't ever right.

 

[Barnabas T Bullion]

All bets are off but certainly you have to assume some higher crowds as the situation normalizes with the weather and everyone resumes business as usual vacationing plus the additional folks that will be coming from rescheduled Hurricane Irma timeframe.

 

[Jays2013]

We'll be there at the end of October into the beginning of November. I've been wondering the same. I feel like we have plans will hold up regardless, but ODS doesn't do great with crowds, so I might have to tweak things a little to give him more of a break. I'll be curious to see how it pans out!

 

[buzzgirls&dad]

October was very crowded long before the hurricane resort changes. No free dining or BB and minimum availability for discounts. It been this way for the past two years. It's the new "it" season

 

[LadyRayado]

We're going October 3-7 and I've been randomly checking FP and room availability just out of curiosity. As of this morning, I have my choice of 10 resorts for that time frame - which is how it has been the past few weeks. So I'm not really worried. It might be a little more crowded, but we have a good plan and are flexible.

 

[otten]

Right. From what I've seen a large portion changed a week or two out, not a month.
First week in October is fall break throughout the South. It's going to be crowded. Probably not far from Spring break.

The people I know who needed to reschedule couldn't find anything in October. It was booked up pre Irma.

 

[lentesta]

Here's what we (TouringPlans) are doing to update the crowd calendar:

1. We've started surveying large travel agencies to get a sense of how many people cancelled their trips outright and how many rescheduled.
2. For those guests that have rescheduled, we're asking for the dates to when they rescheduled.
3. We're added data to our models that take into account the park impacts from storms Hermine ('16), Colin ('16), Matthew ('16), Beryl ('12) and Irene ('11), including their severity and proximity to the parks.

That update should be available in the next couple of days.

Beyond that we're also looking at two other things:

1. The possibility that Disney may announce non-hurricane-related parks & resorts layoffs in the next few weeks. I'm told this is likely.
2. An issue with Disney's reservation system that's incorrectly showing lower room availability. I'm told a summer update to the reservation system is causing 1 reservation request to reserve rooms at 2 separate resorts. That's causing the second resort to show artificially low occupancy. I was able to confirm this in person a couple of weeks ago.

 

[AngiTN]

Here's what we (TouringPlans) are doing to update the crowd calendar:

1. We've started surveying large travel agencies to get a sense of how many people cancelled their trips outright and how many rescheduled.
2. For those guests that have rescheduled, we're asking for the dates to when they rescheduled.
3. We're added data to our models that take into account the park impacts from storms Hermine ('16), Colin ('16), Matthew ('16), Beryl ('12) and Irene ('11), including their severity and proximity to the parks.

That update should be available in the next couple of days.

Beyond that we're also looking at two other things:

1. The possibility that Disney may announce non-hurricane-related parks & resorts layoffs in the next few weeks. I'm told this is likely.
2. An issue with Disney's reservation system that's incorrectly showing lower room availability. I'm told a summer update to the reservation system is causing 1 reservation request to reserve rooms at 2 separate resorts. That's causing the second resort to show artificially low occupancy. I was able to confirm this in person a couple of weeks ago.

I knew it! I have said that over and over and over again. Well, not that exactly. Just that something is off and has been since that failed update. There are packages coming up when you search online that require you to add dining plan to an AP discounted room, for instance. We know those are errors. And availability has just been too wonky (my technical term) for it to be just bookings. Something else is causing it.

 

[Jays2013]

Here's what we (TouringPlans) are doing to update the crowd calendar:

1. We've started surveying large travel agencies to get a sense of how many people cancelled their trips outright and how many rescheduled.
2. For those guests that have rescheduled, we're asking for the dates to when they rescheduled.
3. We're added data to our models that take into account the park impacts from storms Hermine ('16), Colin ('16), Matthew ('16), Beryl ('12) and Irene ('11), including their severity and proximity to the parks.

That update should be available in the next couple of days.

Beyond that we're also looking at two other things:

1. The possibility that Disney may announce non-hurricane-related parks & resorts layoffs in the next few weeks. I'm told this is likely.
2. An issue with Disney's reservation system that's incorrectly showing lower room availability. I'm told a summer update to the reservation system is causing 1 reservation request to reserve rooms at 2 separate resorts. That's causing the second resort to show artificially low occupancy. I was able to confirm this in person a couple of weeks ago.

Good to know! Thank you!

I'm hoping the mostly low-ish park projections we have for our week don't suddenly skyrocket, but we'll roll with it regardless.

 

[jpeterson]

I knew it! I have said that over and over and over again. Well, not that exactly. Just that something is off and has been since that failed update. There are packages coming up when you search online that require you to add dining plan to an AP discounted room, for instance. We know those are errors. And availability has just been too wonky (my technical term) for it to be just bookings. Something else is causing it.

Same here, I was certain there was some major bug in the system, because resort availability plummeted right after that botched update.

 

[Staarr11]

Here's what we (TouringPlans) are doing to update the crowd calendar:

1. We've started surveying large travel agencies to get a sense of how many people cancelled their trips outright and how many rescheduled.
2. For those guests that have rescheduled, we're asking for the dates to when they rescheduled.
3. We're added data to our models that take into account the park impacts from storms Hermine ('16), Colin ('16), Matthew ('16), Beryl ('12) and Irene ('11), including their severity and proximity to the parks.

That update should be available in the next couple of days.

Beyond that we're also looking at two other things:

1. The possibility that Disney may announce non-hurricane-related parks & resorts layoffs in the next few weeks. I'm told this is likely.
2. An issue with Disney's reservation system that's incorrectly showing lower room availability. I'm told a summer update to the reservation system is causing 1 reservation request to reserve rooms at 2 separate resorts. That's causing the second resort to show artificially low occupancy. I was able to confirm this in person a couple of weeks ago.

This is awesome, Thanks @lentesta

 

[AngiTN]

Beyond that we're also looking at two other things:

1. The possibility that Disney may announce non-hurricane-related parks & resorts layoffs in the next few weeks. I'm told this is likely.
2. An issue with Disney's reservation system that's incorrectly showing lower room availability. I'm told a summer update to the reservation system is causing 1 reservation request to reserve rooms at 2 separate resorts. That's causing the second resort to show artificially low occupancy. I was able to confirm this in person a couple of weeks ago.

I've been thinking more about 1 and 2.
How much has 2 impacted 1? (just tossing this thought out for discussion, not for an answer, per se)
If people can't book rooms online (and many aren't going to bother to call) they may well just plan a trip for another time. Or opt to stay off site, which means fewer guests in the resorts. If the guests aren't there because of an error in their booking system is that impacting lay offs?

 

[NinaBella]

.

 

[Timmerica]

It really makes no sense for anyone to reschedule within 60 days if they want to get Fastpasses and dining reservations.

 

[AngiTN]

It really makes no sense for anyone to reschedule within 60 days if they want to get Fastpasses and dining reservations.

You'd be very surprised.
ADR are no problem at all. We book ours same day 99% of the time, get anything we want
FP, the only thing tough is FoP. Most everything else can be found. Maybe not ideal times but found.
People have to go when their schedules permit them to, sometimes

 

[mom2rtk]

It really makes no sense for anyone to reschedule within 60 days if they want to get Fastpasses and dining reservations.

Life happens sometimes.

 

[Texans_loyal]

October is going to packed! almost everyone i knew going in Sept changed their trip to Oct. we will be there next Wed. hoping for low crowds but mentally preparing my group for heavy traffic.

 

[Farro]

Here's what we (TouringPlans) are doing to update the crowd calendar:

1. We've started surveying large travel agencies to get a sense of how many people cancelled their trips outright and how many rescheduled.
2. For those guests that have rescheduled, we're asking for the dates to when they rescheduled.
3. We're added data to our models that take into account the park impacts from storms Hermine ('16), Colin ('16), Matthew ('16), Beryl ('12) and Irene ('11), including their severity and proximity to the parks.

That update should be available in the next couple of days.

Beyond that we're also looking at two other things:

1. The possibility that Disney may announce non-hurricane-related parks & resorts layoffs in the next few weeks. I'm told this is likely.
2. An issue with Disney's reservation system that's incorrectly showing lower room availability. I'm told a summer update to the reservation system is causing 1 reservation request to reserve rooms at 2 separate resorts. That's causing the second resort to show artificially low occupancy. I was able to confirm this in person a couple of weeks ago.

Thanks! Now don't tell anyone about the reservation issue - let them think they can't come in October.

 

[Farro]

The people I know who needed to reschedule couldn't find anything in October. It was booked up pre Irma.

October is going to packed! almost everyone i knew going in Sept changed their trip to Oct. we will be there next Wed. hoping for low crowds but mentally preparing my group for heavy traffic.

God bless the internet.

(not making fun, just having fun)