Disney lowers capacity on low crowd days

[AngiTN]

I honestly don't think that minuscule number makes any difference in crowd levels.

It makes a significant difference in the numbers who take their kids at times where there are not typically school breaks. Is it a major portion of the entire crowd at Disney on a given school day? Probably not. But it does make it harder to "read" family vacation patterns based on school schedules. That should not be discounted.

 

[Louie7080]

Thanks for this, @Louie7080. I'm moderately surprised when anyone listens to me about anything. This is because I'm a parent of a teenager.

Our estimates for all of 2017 were decent: +/- 1.19 at the Magic Kingdom, 1.12 at Epcot, 1.09 at DHS, and 1.35 at AK (and about those levels in November and December 2017 too). For what it's worth, I don't think it's possible to get within +/- 1.0 on a regular basis, mainly because I don't think Disney's posted wait times are consistently accurate either.

Our predictions have not been as good for 2018. We're doing research on a couple of different causes, one of which you mentioned. Here's the list:

1. The U.S. economy
2. How much Pandora is affecting Animal Kingdom
3. Capacity adjustments by Disney, including what happens when rides go offline

Briefly on those first two:

• We probably should have noticed Pandora's enduring popularity sooner. It's the highest-rated attraction in any Disney or Universal theme park in the US, and word of mouth may be driving attendance more than we saw immediately after it opened. We made adjustments to the AK predictions earlier this week.
  
  
• The U.S. economy is doing better now than at any point since we started collecting data in bulk in 2010. While we use a number of economic metrics in the models (from the US, UK, Canada, and Brazil), the models sometimes have trouble making predictions based on things they haven't seen. (Also, I'd be surprised if Brazil is adding anything to WDW's numbers. US visitors from Brazil were down ~12.5% through the middle of 2017. Based on that numbers, Brazil only sends about 3,500 people per day to the entire U.S. - the share that Florida, Orlando, and any given Disney park would be much smaller. If Disney is getting that much more share of a shrinking market, it would be surprising.)

As for the capacity, here's what's interesting: The average crowd level at the Magic Kingdom in January 2018 was higher than these summer periods in 2017:

• The 30-day period that started Memorial Day, 2017 (i.e., the unofficial start of summer)
• June 2017
• July 2018
• Mid-June to mid-July 2017 (i.e., the start of summer vacation)

Over 90% of public schools were in session in January 2018. Fewer than 10% of public schools were in session during those time periods in 2017. And we know that international tourism to the U.S. is down ~5% overall.

What's driving the higher average wait times? Some possible reasons:

• Substantially more adults without kids visiting WDW
• Parents more willing to take their kids out of school for a WDW visit

It seems unlikely that tens of thousands of people wouldn't do those things in November or December 2017, but suddenly change their minds (independently) and do them in January. Why would missing school, for example, be important in 2017 but not 2018?

The easiest way for us to check capacity is to measure it by counting the number of people on the rides per hour. We're going to do that over the next month to see what's going on.

If I had to guess, I'd say that the higher wait times outside of the (Animal Kingdom) are being driven by the economy first, then the capacity stuff.

Thank you Len. A couple of questions if you don't mind, though this may be out of your wheel house or uninteresting to you- How long does the economy have to be getting stronger, for people to start making plans to visit say, WDW? How about the reverse - how long does it take for vacationers to respond to a downturn?

I am very interested in seeing the data you will be getting on capacity. I think it is good info to have and helps keeps Disney on their toes, or at least it should.

(edited to remove dumb question)

 

[JohnneeO]

One thing we noticed last couple trips is the quick service locations are packed, with long times and longer wait times for your food. I would say by visually observing there are not fewer CMs ........... there are more guests. Disney doesn't release numbers and they would be wise to not let these squeak out because they will scare folks away.

A couple of specific data points on our wait times at QS locations from our November 2017 visit:

- Saturday, 11/7/17; At MK, immediately after the early Holiday Wishes show, we had dinner. After getting on line at Columbia Harbor House, I had time to leave my DW, DS, and DD there, walk to Friar Nook, and return to CHH carrying an order of the BBQ Chicken/Mac & Cheese on a tray before my family had ordered and received their food. In summary, CHH was crowded, but FN was basically "walk-on" at the same moment.

- Sunday 11/8/17; At DHS, we thought we had left enough time to order and eat dinner at the ABC Commissary prior to Fantasmic at 8 PM, arriving at the Commissary around 6:30 PM. After more than 40 minutes on line, we had everything packed to go, and brought it to arena, and ate it there. While we were waiting, the closing time for the Commissary came and went at 7 PM, with a manger-type CM escorting the end of the line. I calmly commented that it was frustrating to be waiting for so long while two cashier stations sat idle. He was sympathetic, and issued us not only an anytime paper FP (which we used at MK two days later on PPF, as I have previously reported in a post in the MVMCP FP thread ), but he also placed some anytime FP's into our MDE account for future use. IMHO, some additional CM's could have easily alleviated the situation, and management seems to have tacitly acknowledged this by gifting the FP's.

 

[mickeyluv'r]

I'm here to say no, emphatically. This is not news. It's not worse. It's not better.

I try hard to avoid hyperbole, but I also don't condone Orwellian-style gas-lighting.

Here's two things I see firsthand...
1. Easter week hours for MK in 2018 is 9am-9pm. That is a wild departure from Easter week park hours in prior years. In prior years, MK opened at 8am for regular guests and usually stayed open until midnight or later. Many times, we pulled paper FP for times that were after midnight.

2. I've been on the DIS for a long time. For years, many DISers brag-posted the rides they were able to cover in the rope drop hour (typically 9am-10am), and their experiences mirrored my own. Most of these posts were quite joyous in nature.

 

[lentesta]

There's one thing that probably shouldn't be discounted, the ever increasing number of guests who home school.

Around 3.3% of students were homeschooled in 2016, the last year for which I can find data. That's about the same as in 2012. It is almost double what it was in 1999 though. May be worth looking at for the long term.

 

[Louie7080]

I try hard to avoid hyperbole, but I also don't condone Orwellian-style gas-lighting.

Here's two things I see firsthand...
1. Easter week hours for MK in 2018 is 9am-9pm. That is a wild departure from Easter week park hours in prior years. In prior years, MK opened at 8am for regular guests and usually stayed open until midnight or later. Many times, we pulled paper FP for times that were after midnight.

2. I've been on the DIS for a long time. For years, many DISers brag-posted the rides they were able to cover in the rope drop hour (typically 9am-10am), and their experiences mirrored my own. Most of these posts were quite joyous in nature.

I have not been here long and have only been only able to read of very small fraction of the trip report/experience type posts. Have you noticed a decrease in the joyous posts or an increase or no change? Just curious. I've read a mix including many that state things used to be better at WDW.

 

[mickeyluv'r]

from 2005: "I just checked the official WDW website, and they have extended MK hours from 8am-midnight the week before and after Easter!! Do you think they will have the EMH hours during that time? Could we be in the MK until 3am???"

from Dec 2005: "Looking at the calendar, tomorrow [has] ...EMH from 7 to 8 am, then have EMH again from 1am to 4am. So, you can stay from 7am to 4am at MK. Sounds like a challenge to me. Anybody going to do it.... "

from FEB 2006: "If you are going one day in the extreme off season like January you'd be able to walk onto a lot of rides but most likely the parks would close early except for EPCOT."
Further int eh same post: "Especially around dinner time you can pick your favorite rides and go. There will be no point in [trying to obtain paper] FP's because they'll be gone by this time. I'd probably do Splash, BTMRR, Pirates of the Caribbean and the Haunted House. By this time you could head over to Tomorrow land and do Buzz Lightyear or Space Mountain. Watch Wishes when it comes around and head home tired, hungry and exhausted."

From July 2006: "
We were there on our last night in the beginning of June. The park starts to clear out after the 11pm Spectromagic and toward the end we were walking onto almost all of the rides. It was also better on the bus trip back to POFQ -- everyone had a seat!

We really liked the late EMH even with our DDs (5 and 8) -- not a lot of people and the sun isn't baking you! I know people stress getting to the parks early, but DH and DDs are NOT morning people and staying late at the parks worked so much better for us."

 

[Polyonmymind]

I blame the internet. If "everyone on a popular WDW website says nobody goes to the parks in January".. well, when folks visit these sites to see when is the best time to go, now they pick January. The secret is out. Now "everyone" goes in January. Add to the fact that WDW may offer some type of discount or maybe even "free dining".. well, now your sweet spot to go is not longer so sweet. Character Palooza was another fun thing that the internet killed.

 

[AngiTN]

I have not been here long and have only been only able to read of very small fraction of the trip report/experience type posts. Have you noticed a decrease in the joyous posts or an increase or no change? Just curious. I've read a mix including many that state things used to be better at WDW.

At The Dis? It's the same, there's always been a high percentage of negative nancies here. Funny thing about the negative posters, they are often folks who go again and again and again. I know if I was as unhappy (as they come across) as they are, I'd sure not be going back. It's way too much money to be unhappy or dwell on the negative the whole time (though maybe that actually makes them happy?, I've met some folks like that)

 

[mickeyluv'r]

More positive posts about what folks were able to ride:
From July 2006: "We stayed til closing at 2am two summers ago, during the old e-nights. It had poured at around 8, so the park was EMPTY from then on. We walked right on everything, rode things multiple times without getting off, and got lots of pictures with characters, it was awesome. We have a picture of ourselves next to the big clock on Main street, it says 2:00, and there is no one in sight behind us anywhere. It was very cool walking down Main Street to leave and being the only ones there. Wish it would happen more often!!

From Oct 2006: "When I've been there [AK PM EMH] , FoTLK has always been at 6:00. "Regular" park closing at 5:00, so EMH until 8:00." Added to show AK really did have PM EMH back in the day!

From April 2007, on best time of year to visit WDW: "August - value season rates, parks are open late, little or not rehabs, free food -since school is out, there’s no homework, test or projects to worry about !!"

May 2007: "EMH in the AM aren't usually that crowded. Lots of people don't like to get up early in the morning. I'm one who gets there early."

Oct 2007:"I love EMH at any of the park's. You can get so much done from 8-11 a.m. when apparently, IMO, most resort guests are sleeping late. Sure, there are people who go to EMH, but it isn't the mass of people you see on a crowded AFTERNOON at the Magic Kingdom. I went to the World on a 3 1/2 day weekend last November and I rode more rides I think in those 3 days than I did the year before on a 6 day 7 night trip over Thanksgiving. EMH aren't uncrowded, but there are definitely less people there, IMO, than around lunchtime."

 

[CAS239]

More positive posts about what folks were able to ride:
From July 2006: "We stayed til closing at 2am two summers ago, during the old e-nights. It had poured at around 8, so the park was EMPTY from then on. We walked right on everything, rode things multiple times without getting off, and got lots of pictures with characters, it was awesome. We have a picture of ourselves next to the big clock on Main street, it says 2:00, and there is no one in sight behind us anywhere. It was very cool walking down Main Street to leave and being the only ones there. Wish it would happen more often!!

From Oct 2006: "When I've been there [AK PM EMH] , FoTLK has always been at 6:00. "Regular" park closing at 5:00, so EMH until 8:00." Added to show AK really did have PM EMH back in the day!

From April 2007, on best time of year to visit WDW: "August - value season rates, parks are open late, little or not rehabs, free food -since school is out, there’s no homework, test or projects to worry about !!"

May 2007: "EMH in the AM aren't usually that crowded. Lots of people don't like to get up early in the morning. I'm one who gets there early."

Oct 2007:"I love EMH at any of the park's. You can get so much done from 8-11 a.m. when apparently, IMO, most resort guests are sleeping late. Sure, there are people who go to EMH, but it isn't the mass of people you see on a crowded AFTERNOON at the Magic Kingdom. I went to the World on a 3 1/2 day weekend last November and I rode more rides I think in those 3 days than I did the year before on a 6 day 7 night trip over Thanksgiving. EMH aren't uncrowded, but there are definitely less people there, IMO, than around lunchtime."

Not really sure what you're getting at with these posts. You can find plenty of posts on here about people raving about emh and riding rides from yesterday or a week ago, you don't have to go back more than 10 years.

 

[zebrastreyepz]

Just something I've been wondering: Does it increase time in the parks over the long run?

For instance, at the above link, the poster mentions they dropped about 5 activities per day due to increased wait times. I know we dropped a lot last December and I didn't get 1/4 what I wanted during the MVMCP.

With MVMCP, I realized I would realistically need TWO parties to accomplish what I wanted. My choice is, no more MVMCP but others will choose to do that second party.

With general touring, I used to be able to do AK and DHS in one day with two days at Ep and MK. (Our family LOVES DHS and we do every show and ride every time. I get others see it as a half day.)

To do all I want now, I really need two days in each park.

And during a 6 day trip, I would never consider going to Universal because I wouldn't be able to spare the time.

 

[FallsChurchDad]

I have not been here long and have only been only able to read of very small fraction of the trip report/experience type posts. Have you noticed a decrease in the joyous posts or an increase or no change? Just curious. I've read a mix including many that state things used to be better at WDW.

Our own experience last week for rope drops:

Day 1 - Our boys were so excited to be at WDW. We had a FP for FEA, and the boys really wanted to do Test Track, so we rope-dropped it. We arrived at Epcot at 8:15 am and were second in line for the tapstiles. We flew through and were belly-up to the rope at 8:30 am. Then we sat until 8:55, at which time the Jammitors started to play. They dropped the rope at 9:01. We speed-walked towards Test Track. Right at the ride, we were told Test Track was down. We turned around and got to Soarin' at 9:07 with a 20-minute posted wait. We got in line and were off the ride at 9:27. That's 72 minutes from arrival to finishing the ride.

By the way, that night, we easily got 4th FPs for Test Track and Soarin' - there is no need to rope drop these rides, just use the modify-4th-FP strategy.


Day 2 - We rope-dropped Toy Story Mania at HS, arriving at 8:28. Tapstiles opened at 8:30 and we were belly up to the rope at 8:38, right in front of Trolley Car Cafe. Rope dropped at 9 am. But there were too many people on our left who wanted to make a right turn in front of us, to go to RNRC or ToT. Our stroller couldn't move for a bit, and we ended up behind hundreds of people for TSM. It was a mess. We were in an outdoor queue behind so many people. We got off the ride at 9:30 am - 62 minutes after our arrival.

That night, it was rainy, and we got two straight FPs for TSM.


Day 3 - We rope-dropped Tomorrowland at MK. We arrived at 8:20 and were among the first group at the rope. But our kids wanted to watch the welcome show. On our trip in 2015, we went straight to Space Mountain but they wouldn't give us a rider swap, because the wait was only 5 minutes. So this time, our plan was to ride Buzz as a family once, then ride Space and get a rider swap while others rode Buzz again. But by the time we got off Buzz, Space Mountain was on a 40-minute wait at 9:12 am. So we skipped it and rode it later with FP.


Day 4 - At AK, we had a FP for FoP, so we rope-dropped Navi River Journey. We arrived at the tapstiles at 8:15 am and entered with the giant crowd to Pandora. At 8:30 am, we started moving, but we stopped after 2 minutes. We thought it would start moving again at 8:40, but we just stood there until 9 am. It was a complete mess to get to NRJ. We boarded our boat at 9:17 - more than an hour after arriving. By the time we got off, Pandora was a complete madhouse, and we walked all the way to Everest, which was already on a 15-minute wait (but we had early FPs).


That's four straight days of rope drops, all of which were essentially busts. And certainly all were unpleasant ways to start the day. You could blame us for rope-dropping TT, which apparently often has mechanical issues at opening - but couldn't they have at least warned us at the rope that TT was down? And it seems our Pandora entry was an anomaly, as the very next day they apparently dropped the rope at 7:40 am for AK EMH. But it was still a completely painful experience for everyone on our one morning at AK.

And if a ride goes down when you have a FP, you get 'compensated' with an anytime FP, etc. When there is a problem at rope drop, you are just out of luck.

Just a few years ago, the only problem with rope drop was you have to get up early. Now you are getting up early, with very little benefit.

 

[CAS239]

I have not been here long and have only been only able to read of very small fraction of the trip report/experience type posts. Have you noticed a decrease in the joyous posts or an increase or no change? Just curious. I've read a mix including many that state things used to be better at WDW.

The thing is, plenty of people go to Disney or anywhere, and have tons of joyous happy experiences. Then some have bad experiences.. Who is more likely to be vocal about it? It's always the person who had a negative experience.

I go to Disney all the time and have had countless great experiences, but I've never posted a trip report or made a thread about it. Simply because I don't care to.

You go to a store like Target, their guest service is going to get more people complaining about an issue vs people taking the time to say what was great about their shopping trip. Same with forums. There's still tons of great experiences just like always, but people are usually more concerned with voicing negative stuff

 

[mickeyluv'r]

From a 2008 thread titled, "If you only had a half hour...at WDW": "I'd ride Soarin' - twice!"
"RNR, then run to TOT"
"Haunted Mansion then Peter Pan's Flight. If I could squeeze in a ride on the carousel, I would do that too! "
"I would probably do BTMRR and POC."

From Feb 2008: "The go early advice is great. We get more done before lunch than the whole rest of the day. We usually dont have a need to go back to the hotel mid-day even with a 5 year old but I think that is a matter of preference and how hot it is."

From 2009, this was a thread asking if it was okay to arrive after 3:30pm EVERY DAY of a WDW trip: "3:30 till close is plenty of time to see things. think about it, pounding the pavement from 3:30 till 9 or 10 or even 11 is still a lot of hours to be walking around." though most folks in this particular thread thought 3:30pm In June wasn't the ideal arrival time.

From 2009: "Depending on how you plan your day, I can see where waiting in lines might be a necessity. But we visited all 4 parks last week during Spring Break and never waited in line more than 20 minutes for any ride. We were at each park at rope drop, used FP's very effectively, had a plan, and were armed with some useful tips from this site. We rode each major attraction at least 3 times with the one exception being TSM which we rode twice. Longest time we had to wait was for Magical Express at the Orlando airport!!

 

[mickeyluv'r]

I have not been here long and have only been only able to read of very small fraction of the trip report/experience type posts. Have you noticed a decrease in the joyous posts or an increase or no change? Just curious. I've read a mix including many that state things used to be better at WDW.

I don't spend as much time on the DIS as I once did, but here's what I've seen: Some change happened with the advent of FP+, but the negativity has gotten more pronounced over time, even though FP+ has somewhat improved.

Certainly, some folks seem to dislike almost any WDW change. I still recall when the Land's food court had a complete makeover. Some folks legitimately missed menu items that had been removed, but some posters were up in arms over the change in décor. IMO, the food court improved, though I still wish I could get the veggie lasagna (made with veggies grown in the Land's greenhouses!) and Mickey pasta they once served. Back then, many places offered Mickey-head shaped pasta mac N' cheese made with gobs of real cheese. It wasn't very healthy, but it was delicious. All at once, every place switched to instant mac n' cheese, which was much cheaper for WDW.

Prior to FP+, it was possible to get more than 3 FP per day every day if you arrived early. When FP+ started, there was a 3FP per day total limit. Also, if you didn't pre-book those 3 FP, the wait for an in-park kiosk was an HOUR long! It was crazy! Naturally, that wasn't very well liked.

I also don't read many trip reports, mostly I stick with the "Park Strategies" section of the DIS.

 

[MermaidMommy]

Len makes a really interesting point. It’s not normal for wait times to be longer in January than they were in June and July. Obviously, Disney would have looked at predicted crowd patterns to determine staffing levels for years, but this shift points to them doing something new.

 

[mickeyluv'r]

Not really sure what you're getting at with these posts. You can find plenty of posts on here about people raving about emh and riding rides from yesterday or a week ago, you don't have to go back more than 10 years.

I suggest re-reading the post that triggered my first post today to this thread. The claim went like this:

"My gosh, this is not news. This has been true since forever. People constantly think that cutbacks are getting sharper and sharper, and have complained about it non-stop for decades. Decades.
I'm here to say no, emphatically. This is not news. It's not worse. It's not better..."

So I was refuting that because comments on the DISboards used to be overwhelmingly positive. It just isn't true to say that folks have complained non-stop about cutbacks at WDW.

In my experience, the opposite was true. DISers generally thought that WDW improved every year. There was small things they didn't love- like the food court makeover, but they generally raved about WDW in general.

 

[Airb330]

I am sure Disney always scheduled cast members working based on predicted crwod levels. However, they could be more strict now, or perhaps it's FP+ causing us to fee" like ride times are longer all year.

While most data anyone presents here is going to be anecdotal, it is easier to "see" what the waits are from home now courtesy of the app the last few years. Wait times seem to be longer this January than I remember in the past, but of course I have no hard data to pull to quantify that feeling. Just what I am seeing with Pirates being 45 minutes and Space being 110 minutes on random weekdays in January. Is it FP+ or reduced CMs working? It could be both. It's really hard to say. It "feels" that WDW was more crowded this past January.

I guess some of Josh/easywdw's posts on the wait times may be the only hard data we can use to corroborate any feelings on wait times.

 

[mickeyluv'r]

Len makes a really interesting point. It’s not normal for wait times to be longer in January than they were in June and July. Obviously, Disney would have looked at predicted crowd patterns to determine staffing levels for years, but this shift points to them doing something new.

I also point back to total park hours as a major shift at WDW. I'm still floored to see the upcoming EASTER week park hours:

MK - 9am-9pm every day
HS- 9am-9pm every day
Epcot - 9am-9pm every day (that hasn't changed, except no PM EMH this year.)
AK - 8am-10pm (the DIS page had the wrong hours)

Past Easter weeks, MK had AM EMH EVERY day. Like in 2014, MK's Easter week park hours were:

April 16: 9am –12am W@9pm, parade 10pm, 12am, plus EMH:8 – 9am
April 17: 8am-1am, W@9pm, Parade 10pm, 12am, EMH:7am-8am
April 18: 8am -11pm, w@9pm, parade 10pm, 12am, EMH 7am-8am AND PM EMH until 2AM
April 19: 9am- midnight, W@9pm, parade at 10pm, EMH 8am-9am

HS was 9am - 9:30 or 10pm every night
AK was 9am - 8pm or 9pm every night.

Easter week also typically featured a 3 hour PM EMH almost every night. This year, only 2 PM EMH's are offered all week.

That's VERY different from historical norms.