I’ve definitely considered slowing down with Amex, held off on self-referring for the BBP this year (not that I necessarily think these denials have anything to do with self-referrals because there are plenty of DPs of self-referrals getting their bonuses), because I feel like I’ve been hitting Amex too hard and the BBP would be my 5th Amex credit card (and 8th Amex this year) and lock me out of a potentially good offer unless I close a card that I may not be ready to cancel.
I’ve also thought about the cards I’ve signed up for and which ones I’ll be keeping or closing next year. I’ll probably hold onto my 3 SPG cards as long as I can, until I need to close them to free up a slot, because the FN certs offset the AFs. My kiddo wants to go to
Disneyland again for her birthday next August, anyway, and by then I should have 2x 35k FNs (or one or two more from my Marriott Biz and Premier Plus) and my wife will have 1x 35k FN, which we can probably use to book one of the nearby Marriotts. I’ll very likely close my Hilton Biz. I had planned to close my MB Plat (which will convert to a vanilla Plat in January), but may ask for a retention offer instead to help offset the AF and avoid closing another Plat card (I closed one this year), so I can stay in Amex’s good graces a little while longer. (Alternatively, I’d go for the MS Plat, but I’m kind of lazy to set up an investment account with MS just for a new card — and I’d feel scummy not funding it, and with the market right now... Or a Schwab Plat, but I’m not really looking to cash out, and not anytime soon anyway.) I guess that means putting more spend on the Plat in the new year to make me look like a good customer leading up to the retention call. I do plan on closing my Biz Green and BGR in due time, but I’m on the fence about closing the Biz Plat. Although I haven’t used the 35% MR rebate, I can see some value in it. But eesh, the AF will be $595! Maybe I can find something to buy at Dell, or sign up for WeWork to justify the increased fee.
I’ve also all but ruled out having my wife apply for her own Amex Gold at this time, and I’ll have her keep putting spend on the SPG Biz that we’ll be keeping, and occasional spend on the Hilton Biz until it’s time to cancel.
I do think that a major factor is spend. If you’re spending a lot with Amex (even if not on all your open cards), you’re making them money on swipe fees. Whatever metric they’re using to score us probably must include whether you’re a profitable or unprofitable customer, e.g., the value of the bonuses you’ve received vs. the AFs you’ve paid and how much spend (swipe fees) you’re bringing in.