Paid FP options coming soon to WDW?

[anomamatt]

I haven't been to Disney on a comparable CL10 day so I can't say that Disney wouldn't have been better but I was pretty happy with those wait times.

Unless a ride breaks down (or was down earlier in the day), I have never waited over 15 mins in a FP queue. And that includes several Christmas week trips.

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

Unless a ride breaks down (or was down earlier in the day), I have never waited over 15 mins in a FP queue. And that includes several Christmas week trips.

So our worst case scenario was double what your Dis worst case was (taking out ride break downs since I've waited over half an hour at Disney more than once but I'm pretty sure all of them were break downs or animals in the road). Given that EP is included with our $255 resort, unscheduled, and I don't need to be on my phone for it to be unlimited, to me it's the better value. But everyone's calculations on that are different.

I agree that Disney could not implement an EP-like system the same way that UO does. The number of people at Disney and staying in deluxe resorts onsite dwarfs those at UO. They would have to make it very exclusive - only people staying in suites at deluxe or something like that - to work.

 

[SaintsManiac]

Sorry you had such a bad experience with Express Pass. I would say that's not typical though. We went the week of Thanksgiving this year. Two of our 4 days were crowd level 10 (actual, not predicted) and the longest we waited with EP was 30 min each at Gringotts and Minions. We went to each of them mid afternoon which is on nobody's list of good touring strategies so we were not surprised or disappointed with those wait times. Gringotts had a standby time of 140 mins (didn't check for Minions).

I haven't been to Disney on a comparable CL10 day so I can't say that Disney wouldn't have been better but I was pretty happy with those wait times.

This makes me feel better! We will have EP for the first time this year the weekend before Thanksgiving. I know I saw EP people breezing through 2 years ago while we were in a 60 minute line for Gringotts!

 

[ljmiii]

But as a guest, I'd like them to at least try to find ways to reduce wait times while making their money.

The new ticket pricing as a "fix" to the crowd/wait situation seems unlikely to help to me. The summer & holidays are most busy because more people are able to vacation then, and no price increases for those times will changes that most people are available at those times....

I certainly agree with the first statement. And half the posts in this thread are people guessing how Disney intends to shift wait times around between paid FP+, FP+, and standby.

As for the second I only sort of agree. I’ve already read people swear they’ll never go Xmas/New Years again (or that this is their last year) because of the price increases. I expect Disney will continue to increase the price of Xmas/New Years until enough people change to another school holiday. Routinely having to close down a park due to hitting capacity limits is absurd.

I would also guess that Disney will ratchet up the price of the Easter and Presidents Weeks until they are down to summer crowd levels. But I’m stuck with the school holiday schedule no matter what happens to pricing...

 

[SaharanTea]

No, the costs were there, but the value I already have gotten out of my stays is greater than the original cost of those points. So why would I continue to count those original costs when they already gave me more value than I paid out? That is why I only count maintenance fees now.

I understand, but most people don't have those extra thousands to pump into their vacations that far ahead of time. You're trying to project your savings onto everyone else.

You were trying to say Disney isn't as expensive as everyone says when you've already sunk thousands into it that most others can't. Heck most can't even afford the deluxe pricing you're comparing when talking DVC.

For you, that saved you some money along the way. Most folks aren't DVC, and they have to account for those things when they budget out their Disney vacations.

 

[cmwade77]

I understand, but most people don't have those extra thousands to pump into their vacations that far ahead of time. You're trying to project your savings onto everyone else.

You were trying to say Disney isn't as expensive as everyone says when you've already sunk thousands into it that most others can't. Heck most can't even afford the deluxe pricing you're comparing when talking DVC.

For you, that saved you some money along the way. Most folks aren't DVC, and they have to account for those things when they budget out their Disney vacations.

I was specifically was responding originally to someone who was DVC that was talking about it being too expensive to go now, hence why I put it the way I did.

But even without DVC, Disney can be affordable by using discounted gift cards, etc.

 

[jade1]

Huh? We are DVC members and have stayed in Anaheim, New York, Canada and done a cruise on points, not sure how DVC equates to always staying at WDW.

I think you missed my point a bit.

I was replying to someone who sounded a bit disenchanted with going to WDW and paying more, and has been going there for 30 years, not somebody like you that uses DVC in a totally different way than what I was replying to.

Here was what I quoted:

As a WDW regular since 1990 (I'm local-ish), I've seen a LOT of changes over nearly 30 years.

and eventually bought into DVC..

My follow up was simply it is likely easier to leave something after 30 years of visits, than say.....a new visitor.

I dont think that I would ever sell my DVC membership,

.

Me neither as you can see in my post-its in a part you didn't capture.

 

[jade1]

DVC since 2001, ever since they did away with the non-expiring passes our park days significantly decreased. We do find other ways to spend money and it's not a go-go-go vacation anymore. I would love to hop for five days but can't justify the cost of the pass for parks that haven't changed significantly. We'll do a day or two at the parks each trip now.

To me, this is another "been there a lot done there a lot". I agree with this. We do Clearwater and US almost every trip, and also fish every trip, occasional golf. We only hit the parks in the evening (last year DVC AP was $505 so why not?). But we do still love our DVC stays regardless.
We hardly ever hop, we just go to a different park the next night.

Book a larger villa. I'm beginning to think a 2-bedroom is the minimum for 4 people.

Another great thing about DVC IMO. That extra room pushes it past any actual "Deluxe" hotel room for us, although location still trumps all.

Nothing about the DVC rooms are deluxe.

I was referring to the "category". They are not deluxe in the hotel term, but I will stay at BCV/BWV over Four S, Waldorf even if they were cheaper.

Those recent dues payment were not as easy as in the past though.

Well the good news is, your DVC contract value most likely increased in the last year more than the years dues, and maybe double (if not more depending what you own) your dues.

 

[jade1]

I’m glad you (and most others) enjoy their DVC purchase, but it seems that DVC owners never look at opportunity cost. I’ve seen people say “I paid $10,000 in 1999 and have vacationed for free since.” But that ignores that if they invested that money in the S&P 500 it would be worth $170,000 now.

I had always heard less.

Like typical S&P return of $10,000 over any 20 year cycle is about a $35,000 total value.

The latest period, of 1996 to 2016 it would be worth $31,000 for example.

 

[SaharanTea]

I was specifically was responding originally to someone who was DVC that was talking about it being too expensive to go now, hence why I put it the way I did.

But even without DVC, Disney can be affordable by using discounted gift cards, etc.

Lots of ways to save, yes, but the price increases are way outpacing the 3% savings on discounted gift cards.

I think we've pulverized this dead horse.

Everyone will have a different idea of affordability and worth.

 

[jade1]

Lots of ways to save, yes, but the price increases are way outpacing the 3% savings on discounted gift cards.

I think we've pulverized this dead horse.

Everyone will have a different idea of affordability and worth.

WDW prices for everything are always of interest on a WDW discussion board, esp a thread about one of WDW prices.

I still hope its just paid FP for new attractions going forward, but will see.

 

[crvetter]

I had always heard less.

Like typical S&P return of $10,000 over any 20 year cycle is about a $35,000 total value.

The latest period, of 1996 to 2016 it would be worth $31,000 for example.

I’m glad you (and most others) enjoy their DVC purchase, but it seems that DVC owners never look at opportunity cost. I’ve seen people say “I paid $10,000 in 1999 and have vacationed for free since.” But that ignores that if they invested that money in the S&P 500 it would be worth $170,000 now.

While this is true the time value of money is often neglected, but your comment relies on the $10,000 (or future investable income) not being spent on vacation, which is unlikely as most people do vacation. Also the S&P500 only has had a cumulative total return of 322% since 1/1/1999 so that person would only have $32,000 now, which is much less than your quoted amount. The average yearly total return (assuming dividends are reinvested) of the SP 500 has been 8.8% since 1950, which has 2001 crash and 2008 crash but does ignore the Great Recession.

There is some theoretical point that a DVC owner will be able to "vacation for free" but that is simply because the Return on Capital is much higher for a corporation than an individual, which is how both sides on paper make money. Of course all under a set of market assumptions. Just the early buyers had a great market DVC direct costs have skyrocketed above inflation leaving their contracts valuable on the resale market and rooms at Disney have risen well above inflation.

Though you are correct, opportunity costs should be considered during the analysis along with future vacation plans. There are some great spreadsheets made by others that do exactly what you suggest look at the opportunity cost of the initial investment. The bigger question is can a person afford X per year to vacation at WDW or will they want to do that. I think that is often something people over look. DVC forums on DIS are quote brutally honest on their opinions what is good for some isn't good for all buyers.

 

[SaharanTea]

WDW prices for everything are always of interest on a WDW discussion board, esp a thread about one of WDW prices.

I still hope its just paid FP for new attractions going forward, but will see.

I just meant that particular discussion having run its course, not prices in general or pass FPs specifically.

 

[DisLiss]

As for the second I only sort of agree. I’ve already read people swear they’ll never go Xmas/New Years again (or that this is their last year) because of the price increases. I expect Disney will continue to increase the price of Xmas/New Years until enough people change to another school holiday. Routinely having to close down a park due to hitting capacity limits is absurd.

I would also guess that Disney will ratchet up the price of the Easter and Presidents Weeks until they are down to summer crowd levels. But I’m stuck with the school holiday schedule no matter what happens to pricing...

I've heard/seen people say those things, too, but I've also heard/seen a good many of those same people turn around and do exactly what they swore they wouldn't do anyway. It's easy to say stuff as a first response when you're annoyed by something, but then when your family is asking if you can go back and you realize that yep, those times of year are still the best for you, you wind up going anyway. Maybe people will cut back a day or two from the trip, or opt for a value resort, or more QS meals, but I do believe many folks will still go those times, even if they originally swore they wouldn't. (That's not to say *everyone*, before anyone comes back saying how they definitely are never going then again no matter what. I said "many" people, not "everyone". )

Edited to add: I know many people balk when they hear someone say that for every person/couple/family who gives up on WDW there are others waiting to take their place, but for holiday season 2019 through 2021, I really feel like that's pretty much how it will be between folks wanting to go to SWGE and people wanting to go to the anniversary celebrations in 2021. I do feel like there will be more people looking to visit at those times, and many of them will go during the busiest times, regardless of the price increase.

 

[cmwade77]

I had always heard less.

Like typical S&P return of $10,000 over any 20 year cycle is about a $35,000 total value.

The latest period, of 1996 to 2016 it would be worth $31,000 for example.

And that makes a lot of assumptions, in all reality, the stock market is gambling, something which I don't do, so "investing" in the S&P isn't something I would ever do.

We do know that vacation costs, as all other expenses tend to do, increase year after year and that we are going to take at least one vacation a year, I am now in a position to take two to three a year, so investing in something that will help keep my vacation costs down makes a lot more sense then gambling on the stock market.

 

[cmwade77]

I just meant that particular discussion having run its course, not prices in general or pass FPs specifically.

I do agree that it has run its course and this thread has gotten way off topic.

But that just shows how little traction this rumor really has and how unlikely Disney charging for FPs is.

 

[cmwade77]

Well the good news is, your DVC contract value most likely increased in the last year more than the years dues, and maybe double (if not more depending what you own) your dues.

That is one of the good things about living in California and having purchased at the Grand Californian, thanks to some strange state laws the amount dues can increase by each year is limited to a certain amount our law, I forget the exact amount right now, but it helps keep maintenance fees reasonable. There are some exceptions in the laws under certain specific conditions, but it is hard for Disney to claim those.

 

[anomamatt]

That is one of the good things about living in California and having purchased at the Grand Californian, thanks to some strange state laws the amount dues can increase by each year is limited to a certain amount our law, I forget the exact amount right now, but it helps keep maintenance fees reasonable. There are some exceptions in the laws under certain specific conditions, but it is hard for Disney to claim those.

I'm not sure if that is true or not, but I'll believe you. Either way, the MFs increases for VGC are keeping pace with the rest of DVC. For example, the average 2018 to 2019 MF increase (across all of DVC) was 7.6%. VGC went up 6.6% (pretty much smack dab in the middle of the resorts, YOY increase-wise).

EDIT - found data for 2010-2017.

CAGR for VCG was 4.91%.

That is the second highest compounded annual growth rate over that term. BLT was the only resort with a higher CAGR.

(I don't think your law is saving you any money in MFs).

 

[crvetter]

I'm not sure if that is true or not, but I'll believe you. Either way, the MFs increases for VGC are keeping pace with the rest of DVC. For example, the average 2018 to 2019 MF increase (across all of DVC) was 7.6%. VGC went up 6.6% (pretty much smack dab in the middle of the resorts, YOY increase-wise).

There is rules too in Florida, I was informed by leadership at DVCMC of the rule. But usually those rules say if the costs truly are increased they can raise the dues. So if the water went up 100% the law doesn’t stop them from raising dues to offset that cost. It’s generally more related to capital reserves being built up.

 

[Tiggerlover91]

But that just shows how little traction this rumor really has and how unlikely Disney charging for FPs is.

Why are you so adamant about this not being true. DL charges for them, so why is it SO hard to believe that FINALLY DisneyWorld will too?