Riverea vs. L14 and 7 month booking

[Jenniebee]

Hi guys - new poster! I have been reading Disboards for about 8 years and just decided to register finally.

Anyway... so I was thinking about the January restrictions where any new resale contracts at L14 can only book at L14. So going forward, when it comes to the 7 month window anyone purchasing direct can book at L14 and also anywhere new. Anyone purchasing resale can book at L14 and NOT anywhere new. So the amount of people trying to book into L14 (at 7 months) is increased but the resale buyers have less options of locations to book, correct? It seems like the 7 month booking is going to get harder and harder as all the Riviera and other direct buyers buying other resorts are in this pool. And when they build Reflections another huge glut will be added to this space, correct? So I am thinking that Disney did actually make buying direct more appealing. Or basically in resale you are going to need to really buy where you want to stay, making sleep around points kind of a bad idea.

 

[Jenniebee]

I am just trying to think this all through, I was pretty solid that I wanted to buy SSR resale, but watched a Riviera walk through video today and it does look really awesome... so I was like hmmm...

Also let me add I genuinely LIKE SSR, and I would totally love to stay there. If I could try other resorts every once in a while that would be a bonus but I do not have my heart set on any one location. But I see how the 7 month booking is going to get super crowded and the resale buyers cannot reciprocate by booking out at the home resort of the people booking in. The blue card benefits mean nothing to me, I guess what I am wondering is the main advantage to purchasing direct being able to book anywhere, and is there any advantage to being a direct buyer at the 7 month window? Seems like no, this is just going to be harder for everyone regardless.

 

[Marionnette]

Hi guys - new poster! I have been reading Disboards for about 8 years and just decided to register finally.

Anyway... so I was thinking about the January restrictions where any new resale contracts at L14 can only book at L14. So going forward, when it comes to the 7 month window anyone purchasing direct can book at L14 and also anywhere new. Anyone purchasing resale can book at L14 and NOT anywhere new. So the amount of people trying to book into L14 (at 7 months) is increased but the resale buyers have less options of locations to book, correct? It seems like the 7 month booking is going to get harder and harder as all the Riviera and other direct buyers buying other resorts are in this pool. And when they build Reflections another huge glut will be added to this space, correct? So I am thinking that Disney did actually make buying direct more appealing. Or basically in resale you are going to need to really buy where you want to stay, making sleep around points kind of a bad idea.

I see it differently.

Let’s say that I buy resale at SSR. You buy direct points at RIV.

At 7 months, we both want to book at Poly. You don’t have an advantage over me just because you purchased a direct contract and mine are resale. We both have an equal shot at the Poly. In that sense, your direct points are not more attractive than my resale points.

The appeal from purchasing direct points comes from being able to use those points at future resorts and RIV. But the resale restrictions could make availability at those resorts pretty scarce as resale owners at those new resorts will have no place other than their home resorts at which to use their points.

 

[Sandisw]

I agree. Booking or changing at 7 months into the L14 is going to be more difficult. We have already seen it in the past few years.

But, I am not sure that would be an argument for buying directl. Because even those direct buyers will be competing with others for L14.

Now, down the road when the number of new resorts is much larger than just RIV and Reflections, maybe it would be something to consider, but I don’t see that for a long time,

I definitely think that buying where you don’t mind staying is important and I also think that booking during home resort priority is going to be much more important.

 

[skippytx]

Adding millions and millions of points to the DVC system, but restricting some of them from booking at a few resorts can create an imbalance. If someone is buying resale today I recommend buying where you want to stay.

it might not be a big deal now but in 10 years it might. In 22 years when there’s like 10 million points pulled out of the L14 system it’ll be a really big deal.

 

[Cyberc1978]

it might not be a big deal now but in 10 years it might. In 22 years when there’s like 10 million points pulled out of the L14 system it’ll be a really big deal.

I agree but I think those that will take the biggest hit will be those that use their points to sleep around i.e SSR, OKW and to some degree AKV. I dont think BLT or VGF will even notice it as most already book there home resort.

 

[Marionnette]

I agree but I think those that will take the biggest hit will be those that use their points to sleep around i.e SSR, OKW and to some degree AKV. I dont think BLT or VGF will even notice it as most already book there home resort.

Add to that list those who are buying “cheap” AUL resale points for SAPs. Not only will they have a difficult time booking at 7 months when the 2042 resorts expire, they will also not have a WDW resort as a home resort to fall back on with a reservation made at 11 months.

 

[jarestel]

While it's certainly true that a large number of points will leave the system in 2042, it's also true that a large number of owners of those points will as well. This should help to mitigate the situation somewhat. Additionally, it's hard to imagine that owners of BLT, VGF, PVR, CCV, or DRR will be using their points at the 7-month window to book SSR, OKW, or AKV with any kind of regularity. So competition for 7-month reservations shouldn't be that extreme at most resorts, but bottom line as always is, if you really need to stay at a certain resort, you probably should make sure you have the 11-month booking priority there.

 

[Madame]

BCV, BRV & BWV will be sold new we can assume. Unless something changes dramatically (not saying it can’t ), direct and grandfathered buyers of the remaining L14 (SSR, AKV, etc) should be able to book the “new” resorts as they come back on line/are resold, no?

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I think it's always been the case that when you bring a new resort online, it increases pressure at 7 months at the most desired resorts - Boardwalk, Beach Club, VGF, BLT, and to a lesser extent Poly studios. It's hard to say, if booking were 100% open, how high demand Riviera would be 10 years from now. But Riviera was always going to increase competition at 7 months for the resorts everyone wants at 7 months.

 

[CanadaDisney05]

I think it's always been the case that when you bring a new resort online, it increases pressure at 7 months at the most desired resorts - Boardwalk, Beach Club, VGF, BLT, and to a lesser extent Poly studios. It's hard to say, if booking were 100% open, how high demand Riviera would be 10 years from now. But Riviera was always going to increase competition at 7 months for the resorts everyone wants at 7 months.

While this is true, there is a fundamental difference. In the past, new resort owners would increase competition for desired resorts at 7 months, but that would be partially offset by old resort owners wanting to book into the new resort. This time (well not specifically this time because almost all owners are either direct or grandfathered, but going forward) around, there will be much less old resort owners that can book into the new resort.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

In the past, new resort owners would increase competition for desired resorts at 7 months, but that would be partially offset by old resort owners wanting to book into the new resort.

Not always, and not long term in all cases. See also: Saratoga.

I tend to agree with Marionette here, that no one gets an advantage because they have a direct contract or resale, and the booking windows are very difficult to legally change. Both a direct purchaser and a resale O14 has an equal shot at any O14 at 7 months, and it's a matter of connection speed at 8AM. The only real benefit of direct is booking Riviera and Reflections, and given that wisdom is to buy where you are happy to stay, being able to book at a resort not even open shouldn't be a primary driver.

 

[CanadaDisney05]

Not always, and not long term in all cases. See also: Saratoga.

I tend to agree with Marionette here, that no one gets an advantage because they have a direct contract or resale, and the booking windows are very difficult to legally change. Both a direct purchaser and a resale O14 has an equal shot at any O14 at 7 months, and it's a matter of connection speed at 8AM. The only real benefit of direct is booking Riviera and Reflections, and given that wisdom is to buy where you are happy to stay, being able to book at a resort not even open shouldn't be a primary driver.

I agree, direct doesn't give any benefit to booking O14 resorts. I'm just suggesting that the new restrictions are going to increase competition even more at the O14 than there was in the past when a new resort came online.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I agree, direct doesn't give any benefit to booking O14 resorts. I'm just suggesting that the new restrictions are going to increase competition even more at the O14 than there was in the past when a new resort came online.

I don't think people will notice "more competition." It's already high.

 

[SG131]

If you are happy with SSR and still want the direct benefits, you can buy SSR for $160 a point direct from disney and it has much lower maintenance fees.

I think the other thing to note with RIV is that because of these new resale restrictions, 10 years from now when there are a higher number of resale owners, booking at RIV will become highly competitive even at 11 months. Because all those resale owners will either have to use their points at RIV or lose them.

 

[starry_solo]

BCV, BRV & BWV will be sold new we can assume. Unless something changes dramatically (not saying it can’t ), direct and grandfathered buyers of the remaining L14 (SSR, AKV, etc) should be able to book the “new” resorts as they come back on line/are resold, no?

I would think Disney would restrict it to what's remaining of the original 14.

I think Disney may refurbish the resorts that expire in 2042 to make them "new" again.

 

[SG131]

I would think Disney would restrict it to what's remaining of the original 14.

I think Disney may refurbish the resorts that expire in 2042 to make them "new" again.

I think they will refurbish them as well, but I think it would be too costly to do all at exactly the same time. Plus they would need a huge sales push to sell that many resorts all at once. Beach club currently gets the highest prices out of the 2042 resorts, so I could see them remodeling and reselling that first.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Again, we are assuming the business model in 2042 is exactly as it is now. I don't think that can be relied on, given that Florida is involved, and long-distance travel in a lot of cases.

 

[MiniMN]

I think they will refurbish them as well, but I think it would be too costly to do all at exactly the same time. Plus they would need a huge sales push to sell that many resorts all at once. Beach club currently gets the highest prices out of the 2042 resorts, so I could see them remodeling and reselling that first.

Agree. And it seems to take forever (2 years) to refurbish just one resort.

 

[Lumpy1106]

It's not just resale restrictions that sway me against Riviera. The resort is also points heavy and the annual dues are really high. That got me to thinking; could the resorts that have a higher point requirements be putting increased pressure on the ones that don't @ the 7-month window? IOW - let's say it costs you 100 points for your typical stay at BLT, but 150 at RIV. If I'm a BLT owner the higher point requirement at RIV will dissuade me from staying there. If I'm a RIV owner though, staying at BLT would seem like a real bargain. Full disclosure; I am a BLT owner and LOVE planning 11 months out so it won't affect my stay at BLT. I do want to stay at BWV and BCV at some point though and it seems like RIV's point requirements will make booking these resorts at 7 months even more difficult.