What’s you prediction for return to normal travel?

[tidefan]

An antibody study just came out from the Bay Area that found that the actual number of cases could be up to 85 times higher than currently diagnosed. If true, then the number of people diagnosed today in the US - about 707,000 x 85 = 60,000,000, which is about 20% of the total US population.

I saw this too. Add to that that when they tested every sailor on the aircraft carrier in Guam, of the 600 that tested positive, 60% (360) had no symptoms...

 

[dvcgirl67]

An antibody study just came out from the Bay Area that found that the actual number of cases could be up to 85 times higher than currently diagnosed. If true, then the number of people diagnosed today in the US - about 707,000 x 85 = 60,000,000, which is about 20% of the total US population.

I saw the study, but unfortunately that's now how the data is extrapolated.

Santa Clara County, where the serology study was done, had a total of 960 confirmed COVID-19 cases at the time of the study. The serology study estimates that the true number is 50-85 times that amount, which gets you to that 48,000 to 81,000 possible cases in Santa Clara County. The population of Santa Clara County is 1,928,000.

So, on the high end, if the infection rate in Santa Clara County is 85 times the positives, that would be 81,000 people. That's 4.2% of the population infected on the high end of this serology study. On the low end, if 50 times higher, then 2.5%. They state that in the study, that the infection rate is possibly higher than the rate of known infection at the time of the study, which was 960 people, or 0.05%. Basically...1/2 of one percent. So yes....it's a big jump up for 1/2 percent of the population infected to possibly 2.5%-4.2% infected, but it's nowhere near 20%.

I wish it was true, but there's no scientific evidence pointing us in that direction at this time.

 

[dvcgirl67]

I saw this too. Add to that that when they tested every sailor on the aircraft carrier in Guam, of the 600 that tested positive, 60% (360) had no symptoms...

Right, and you'll find lots of asymptotic positives in any setting where there's lots of virus. Cruise ships, aircraft carriers, hospitals, nursing homes, homeless shelters. But 90% of the population of our nation is staying away from each other, which is why we're flattening the curve. If you were to test a town of say 10,000 people who are effectively quarantining as ordered, based on the serology study out of the Bay Area, you'd find 250-420 positives.

In my county in NJ, we have 4,000 confirmed cases. Our population is 620,000. So our number here is 0.6%. 6/10ths of one percent. If we apply the 2.5-4.2% figure from Santa Clara County to our population....we'd have 15,500-26,000 cases, which is likely if we did that same serology test here. But it's still just 2.5-4.2%.

 

[tidefan]

Right, and you'll find lots of asymptotic positives in any setting where there's lots of virus. Cruise ships, aircraft carriers, hospitals, nursing homes, homeless shelters. But 90% of the population of our nation is staying away from each other, which is why we're flattening the curve. If you were to test a town of say 10,000 people who are effectively quarantining as ordered, based on the serology study out of the Bay Area, you'd find 250-420 positives.

In my county in NJ, we have 4,000 confirmed cases. Our population is 620,000. So our number here is 0.6%. 6/10ths of one percent. If we apply the 2.5-4.2% figure from Santa Clara County to our population....we'd have 15,500-26,000 cases, which is likely if we did that same serology test here. But it's still just 2.5-4.2%.

Yes, but I think this will be an important thing to study to see who the virus affects and who it doesn’t seem to as much.

 

[dvcgirl67]

Yes, but I think this will be an important thing to study to see who the virus affects and who it doesn’t seem to as much.

Trust me, I think we're all hoping that we're one of the lucky "asymptomatics" when this is all over!!

 

[elle21]

Right, and you'll find lots of asymptotic positives in any setting where there's lots of virus. Cruise ships, aircraft carriers, hospitals, nursing homes, homeless shelters. But 90% of the population of our nation is staying away from each other, which is why we're flattening the curve. If you were to test a town of say 10,000 people who are effectively quarantining as ordered, based on the serology study out of the Bay Area, you'd find 250-420 positives.

In my county in NJ, we have 4,000 confirmed cases. Our population is 620,000. So our number here is 0.6%. 6/10ths of one percent. If we apply the 2.5-4.2% figure from Santa Clara County to our population....we'd have 15,500-26,000 cases, which is likely if we did that same serology test here. But it's still just 2.5-4.2%.

But our “staying away from each other” isn’t isolation. So it’s still spreading at a slower rate. Most of us have regular contact with people as we go out for essentials. Or contact with individuals who are delivering our essentials and take-out food. And think about how much this spread before the stay at home order. Obviously no scientific numbers to prove any of this. Just thinking through.
I honestly think I’ve had it. Found out my neighbor had the exact strange symptoms I did at the same time. This was after we began social distancing. And I’m not in a state with high infection rates. It was mild, and I was denied a test (obviously, since they have only been able to test people who have the most severe symptoms.)

 

[dvcgirl67]

But our “staying away from each other” isn’t isolation. So it’s still spreading at a slower rate. Most of us have regular contact with people as we go out for essentials. Or contact with individuals who are delivering our essentials and take-out food. And think about how much this spread before the stay at home order. Obviously no scientific numbers to prove any of this. Just thinking through.
I honestly think I’ve had it. Found out my neighbor had the exact strange symptoms I did at the same time. This was after we began social distancing. And I’m not in a state with high infection rates. It was mild, and I was denied a test (obviously, since they have only been able to test people who have the most severe symptoms.)

Yes, you're right. But based on our curve, we're doing a good job of "staying away from each other". Some of us are more maniacal about things (me for example), and aren't ordering take out and am just staying home. Only going out for walks with my DH and dogs. We're also wiping down all groceries that to this point, are being delivered. I've only ventured out into the public twice in the last 5 weeks. Once to our local butcher. I went very early in the morning when no one was there wearing a mask. And once to pick up a prescription. My sister and her family are a five minute walk from my house. We're staying away from each other.

You very well may have had the virus. You'd be in that percentage of mostly asymptomatic positives. I know a couple of people who are pretty sure they've had it but didn't meet the criteria for a test. I think we'll all feel better when we can get an antibody test to know if we've had it. And also know how long those antibodies last...etc. I am completely with all of you. I'm ready for all of this to be over. Especially considering the heart wrenching pain that those who have lost loved ones are going through. And we're learning more about this virus every day.

Even if we remember that Santa Clara County gets an A+ as far as taking very early steps in implementing "shelter in place" measures, the numbers are still daunting. I mean, they crushed the curve. We, in the NY Metro Area have a much higher density and were a week later in shutting down. Those two factors are why we're having such a terrible time here. So our serology of positives might be higher, let's say it's double here...5.0 to 8.4%. It's likely that the entire country, if we take a median number is closer to 4.0% as an infection rate. Currently, as a nation, our infection rate is 0.2%...or roughly 700,000. If we're at 4.0%, then our real number is around 13,200,000. So 13 million people...still only 4%..including the asymptomatic positives.

We're all going to have to evaluate the risks as we move forward with respect to the virus. I, for one, will in no way will mess around with this thing. My sister-in-law is a nurse. She manages two units and has been on the front lines treating COVID-19 patients since it started here. It's a bit of a crap shoot as to who gets a terrible course of this disease vs. those who breeze through with little to no symptoms.

And like you, we're all trying to "think it through" when it comes back to our "new normal". In my area, along the NJ Transit railway into NYC, those trains are typically packed every day with commuters. Subways are packed. The city is packed. We all go to lots of concerts, and sporting events...etc. How on earth are we going back to anything looking remotely like that before we have a vaccine? And that's why I'm so pessimistic when it comes to Disney looking normal anytime soon. I mean, I can imagine them running it as half capacity...maybe something like that?

As for Disney Cruise Line...sorry, I don't know when that's happening. Not until there is a vaccine. No city, country, island...etc is going to allow any of those ships to dock if they have COVID-19 positive outbreaks on board. No way. Not after what we've all been through.

 

[MomOTwins]

As for Disney Cruise Line...sorry, I don't know when that's happening. Not until there is a vaccine. No city, country, island...etc is going to allow any of those ships to dock if they have COVID-19 positive outbreaks on board. No way. Not after what we've all been through.

I don't buy it. Most of the sailings are from Florida, and Florida cares too much about its tourist industry to halt all cruises until there is a vaccine. Remember, they were one of the last hold out states on social distancing.

 

[dvcgirl67]

I don't buy it. Most of the sailings are from Florida, and Florida cares too much about its tourist industry to halt all cruises until there is a vaccine. Remember, they were one of the last hold out states on social distancing.

Florida can care all that it wants about its tourist industry. This virus does not care what Florida thinks. Trust me, it doesn't care what NY and NJ think either.

Yes, Florida was late to social distance and it appears that they'll be early out of the gate with respect to any kind of measures that are currently in place. The cruise industry is in a bit of a pickle if you ask me. They don't pay any taxes in our country. The ships aren't made in our country. They're not registered in this country. Most of the crew aren't from our country. Yes, there are port fees and the supplies needed for their operations that are purchased from us, but they are a completely different animal than Disney World.

But more important than any of that, you can't have cruise ships at sea in the middle of a pandemic. Not until we have a possible preventive therapy that greatly lessens the course of the disease, or a vaccine. Remdesivir and Hydroxychloriquine aren't going to cut it for getting cruise ships up and running anytime soon. They're currently being given to critically ill patients on a compassionate care basis. There's some promise there, but again it's for critically ill patients only at this time.

So yes, Florida cares greatly about its tourist industry. So does Italy, Spain, all of Europe. I think we all do. I know my DH and I are incredibly sad that we can't take a trip to South Africa that we've been planning for over a year. We were due to leave two weeks from yesterday. Obviously, it's not happening. For one, the border is closed. Secondly, the foreign carrier we were scheduled to fly on isn't flying internationally through May 31st (and that will be extended). But even if the South Africa was suicidal enough to have kept their border open and we were able to somehow get there....we'd never in a million years go. Why? Because we'd never risk our lives traveling so far away with a healthcare system that is not all that great.

And following that same logic, and seeing how this virus rages in close quarters, never in a million years would I get on a cruise ship in the middle of a pandemic when there is no vaccine. When there are inevitable outbreaks, can the ship's small medical operation care for you or your family members? How about a hospital in the Bahamas, Mexico, Grand Cayman...etc? We all know where the cruise ships go. And every time there is a positive COVID-19 case on any ship...anywhere, it will be all over the news.

Florida can care more than the entire world about the tourist industry. If they're going to allow cruise ships to leave their ports, in the middle of a pandemic, before there is a vaccine, they'd better be prepared to accept them back into their ports and into their hospitals with critically ill COVID-19 patients.

 

[Mainsail Minnie]

Florida can care all that it wants about its tourist industry. This virus does not care what Florida thinks.

The virus doesn't run the state of Florida. The governor does.

People who keep parroting "The virus makes the timeline" are ignoring the fact that reopening is controlled by our locally elected officials, not by the CDC, or Dr. Fauci, or any set of data, right or wrong. They also ignore the fact that there are other very important societal considerations besides virus numbers, including poverty, education, mental health and civil liberties.

 

[smmco]

I think it will be in June. Another study came out on testing done in a homeless shelter in Boston I believe. Almost half of the people who tested positive had no symptoms. I think (hope) we will find soon that most people have had it already.

19 people at my husbands work tested positive with no symptoms. Ive been exposed to it several times. Im assuming I’ve had it already.

 

[choirfarm]

The virus doesn't run the state of Florida. The governor does.

People who keep parroting "The virus makes the timeline" are ignoring the fact that reopening is controlled by our locally elected officials, not by the CDC, or Dr. Fauci, or any set of data, right or wrong. They also ignore the fact that there are other very important societal considerations besides virus numbers, including poverty, education, mental health and civil liberties.

Yes, those are considerations. But with the current state of the virus, the VIRUS will cause the spread on the cruise ships even if the governor says they can go. The governor cannot change the contagious nature of the virus, especially in closed spaces like a cruise ship.

 

[dvcgirl67]

The virus doesn't run the state of Florida. The governor does.

People who keep parroting "The virus makes the timeline" are ignoring the fact that reopening is controlled by our locally elected officials, not by the CDC, or Dr. Fauci, or any set of data, right or wrong. They also ignore the fact that there are other very important societal considerations besides virus numbers, including poverty, education, mental health and civil liberties.

Well, I'm not sure that I'm parroting anything at anyone. I'm just stating my opinion. I completely understand the societal concerns. I am a small business owner...of a service business. I'm completely shut down. Zero money coming in from my half of the ledger in our household. Thankfully, my husband is still gainfully employed and we're natural savers and so we have resources. And I've already mentioned the cancelled trip...and there are lost funds associated with that as well.

In other words, I am not in any way having fun in my first pandemic. I can't even project my losses right now because it's impossible to know. But I can tell you that the next 12-18 months aren't going to be like anything we've experienced in our country. Things will not go back to normal until there is a vaccine or we develop a permanent herd immunity (which means many, many more people will die). But right now, we don't even know how to effectively treat those who are critically ill. We've never seen anything like this disease.

I don't think we'll be as restricted as we are right now in parts of our country. I do believe we've all learned a heck of a lot about hand-washing and hygiene. I do believe that there will be significant easing from our current state. By early summer, hopefully most of the country can be back to work in some form or another. Hopefully we can enjoy theme parks, concerts and sporting events as we get into the fall...if we don't get a second round of this virus. But it's truly iffy.

I think the way we all need to look at it is to do the best we can. If Disney opens in a limited capacity and you are a younger family/group and want to "support the team" so to speak, then I think Disney will do the right thing and keep their guests as safe as they can. But it's not going to be a typical 12-18 months. I'm hoping that we can keep everything up and running enough to avoid a terrible economic collapse, without losing over 2 million Americans.

But cruising, I'm sorry, I think that even if any leader of any state...or maybe even the wizard of oz....says...."it's okay to cruise...come on board!!" Does anyone think that they're going to fill those ships? I'm not sure if you saw that the Saudi Wealth Fund bought an 8.7% stake in Carnival Cruise Lines....the biggest cruise ship company in the world. Carnival had no choice. That cash infusion will allow them to sit tight...and not sail, for 15 months. It comes at a price of course...they just had to sell a pretty significant share of their company to the Saudis for the privilege of making no money, but they will likely survive as a result. Not all cruise companies will.

Disney is a baby cruise line compared to Carnival....DCL will make it because their parent company has a very strong balance sheet, and if they didn't every "foreign wealth fund" in the world would kill to own a piece of it.

 

[Mainsail Minnie]

Yes, those are considerations. But with the current state of the virus, the VIRUS will cause the spread on the cruise ships even if the governor says they can go. The governor cannot change the contagious nature of the virus, especially in closed spaces like a cruise ship.

This thread is about when the cruise lines will open, not whether or not anyone will get the virus on a ship. People get all sorts of illnesses on ships. Some people will get Covid, but most people who get it are asymptomatic or have relatively mild symptims.

No, I don't think cruise lines are going to stay shuttered until Covid no longer exists. People who are most at risk of the virus's worst effects (the elderly, those with preexisting conditions) hopefully will be advised not to cruise, but cruising will very likely get the green light sooner rather than later in Florida, because it's a significant part of Florida's economy.

 

[mousefan73]

I don't think it will first come back when there is a vaccine. We simply are not patient enough. We will simply adjust our tolerance for risk. We still get in a car and may have lifestyles that are much more deadly than corona. Obesity alone kills more.

Right now we are just at the beginning of being outside of the normal, people are still patient and being "good". Summer is around the corner, so the shock of school not returning is digestable. Yes for class of 2020 this sucks. That upcoming trip, concert, or wedding is cancelled. We are all upset and accept that now as most of us have that in our heads this is a temporary thing.

Now imagine a world where there are no more parties, no more weddings, no more travel or trips- longer term. No more proms, graduations, spring break partying even for the class of 2021. This is when people will stop being patient and " good". Already people are protesting. (IMO- wrongly so as we HAVE to slow the spread now). But honestly in one year, will I join then??

My friends parents are older and a risk group. They havent seen their grandkids in weeks. they also stated, not for long though. At some point they said there is no point in living if you are locked in anyways, they are retired and travel tons.... cruise tons too. ... Patience is starting to run out.

Demand for travel is there for before a vaccine. I am one of them and have many friends who say, once borders are open and flights are there, I am outa here.

 

[choirfarm]

If patience runs out before it is safe, there will be many, many more deaths. You are probably right. Their lack of patience may well cause their death. Only they know if it is worth it. I just hope they don't take too many Innocents with them.

 

[dvcgirl67]

This thread is about when the cruise lines will open, not whether or not anyone will get the virus on a ship. People get all sorts of illnesses on ships. Some people will get Covid, but most people who get it are asymptomatic or have relatively mild symptims.

No, I don't think cruise lines are going to stay shuttered until Covid no longer exists. People who are most at risk of the virus's worst effects (the elderly, those with preexisting conditions) hopefully will be advised not to cruise, but cruising will very likely get the green light sooner rather than later in Florida, because it's a significant part of Florida's economy.

Ok, staying on topic. I just don't understand how anyone thinks we can have cruise ships up and running in the middle of the worst pandemic in over 100 years.

Again, Shanghai Disney, in an area of China that did not have nearly the outbreak that they had in Wuhan, or Italy, or the NY Metro Area is still closed. They shut the entire operation down on January 25th. They've opened hotels, restaurants and some "entertainment areas" (but not the park), and they are nearly 3 months out. And that's more of an open atmosphere...not contained and isolated like a cruise ship. We know that this virus is more contagious than the flu, less contagious than measles...but it has an "aerosol contagion" component to it. I mean..it just does.

I'm watching Shanghai Disney as a precursor to what Disney might do here in the states. And keep in mind that Shanghai Disney's attendance/resort footprint is a fraction of what we have here in the states. But Disney is a great company and will learn from what they are doing in Shanghai. And knowing how Disney operates, they will not be first out of the chute when it comes to cruising. They're not that desperate. DCL and the Disney Company in general will be here when the pandemic is over....we're all going to make it.

But this idea that we can kind of "bully" our way passed this disease, before there is a vaccine or more effective treatment is just nuts.

 

[CaliforniaGirl09]

Florida can care all that it wants about its tourist industry. This virus does not care what Florida thinks. Trust me, it doesn't care what NY and NJ think either.

Yes, Florida was late to social distance and it appears that they'll be early out of the gate with respect to any kind of measures that are currently in place. The cruise industry is in a bit of a pickle if you ask me. They don't pay any taxes in our country. The ships aren't made in our country. They're not registered in this country. Most of the crew aren't from our country. Yes, there are port fees and the supplies needed for their operations that are purchased from us, but they are a completely different animal than Disney World.

But more important than any of that, you can't have cruise ships at sea in the middle of a pandemic. Not until we have a possible preventive therapy that greatly lessens the course of the disease, or a vaccine. Remdesivir and Hydroxychloriquine aren't going to cut it for getting cruise ships up and running anytime soon. They're currently being given to critically ill patients on a compassionate care basis. There's some promise there, but again it's for critically ill patients only at this time.

So yes, Florida cares greatly about its tourist industry. So does Italy, Spain, all of Europe. I think we all do. I know my DH and I are incredibly sad that we can't take a trip to South Africa that we've been planning for over a year. We were due to leave two weeks from yesterday. Obviously, it's not happening. For one, the border is closed. Secondly, the foreign carrier we were scheduled to fly on isn't flying internationally through May 31st (and that will be extended). But even if the South Africa was suicidal enough to have kept their border open and we were able to somehow get there....we'd never in a million years go. Why? Because we'd never risk our lives traveling so far away with a healthcare system that is not all that great.

And following that same logic, and seeing how this virus rages in close quarters, never in a million years would I get on a cruise ship in the middle of a pandemic when there is no vaccine. When there are inevitable outbreaks, can the ship's small medical operation care for you or your family members? How about a hospital in the Bahamas, Mexico, Grand Cayman...etc? We all know where the cruise ships go. And every time there is a positive COVID-19 case on any ship...anywhere, it will be all over the news.

Florida can care more than the entire world about the tourist industry. If they're going to allow cruise ships to leave their ports, in the middle of a pandemic, before there is a vaccine, they'd better be prepared to accept them back into their ports and into their hospitals with critically ill COVID-19 patients.

I couldn't agree with you more. Love your very thoughtful and well-reasoned posts. I'm in the SF Bay Area where thanks to our local mayors we were the first major met. area to shut down, and we have flattened the curve. My sister (and brother-in-law) are docs and they are basically saying exactly what you are saying. The world will not go back to anything resembling normal until there is a vaccine or proven way of dealing with this virus (therapeutic or possibly plasma). IMO cruise ships are going to be among the last to come back to normal. I'd venture to DLR or WDW way way way before I'd go on a cruise. I'm platinum with 14 Disney and 6 other cruise lines under my belt so I love cruising. But not with this kind of risk. Had a very sobering discussion with my sister today about even when they do have a vaccine. We aren't going to be able to get millions of people vaccinated at once so there will be priorities and sadly me liking to travel isn't going to put me in front of the line.

 

[holden]

I'm hoping that if DCL cruises this summer they give us the option of canceling and getting a full refund. We booked my 50th birthday celebration in a concierge cabin on Dream in July. I really don't want to go. I also don't want to lose the sizable amount of money we spent. If push comes to shove, I'll forfeit the money to keep my family healthy. I'm really hoping they don't sail.

 

[dvcgirl67]

I don't think it will first come back when there is a vaccine. We simply are not patient enough. We will simply adjust our tolerance for risk. We still get in a car and may have lifestyles that are much more deadly than corona. Obesity alone kills more.

Right now we are just at the beginning of being outside of the normal, people are still patient and being "good". Summer is around the corner, so the shock of school not returning is digestable. Yes for class of 2020 this sucks. That upcoming trip, concert, or wedding is cancelled. We are all upset and accept that now as most of us have that in our heads this is a temporary thing.

Now imagine a world where there are no more parties, no more weddings, no more travel or trips- longer term. No more proms, graduations, spring break partying even for the class of 2021. This is when people will stop being patient and " good". Already people are protesting. (IMO- wrongly so as we HAVE to slow the spread now). But honestly in one year, will I join then??

My friends parents are older and a risk group. They havent seen their grandkids in weeks. they also stated, not for long though. At some point they said there is no point in living if you are locked in anyways, they are retired and travel tons.... cruise tons too. ... Patience is starting to run out.

Demand for travel is there for before a vaccine. I am one of them and have many friends who say, once borders are open and flights are there, I am outa here.

I agree...and yes, we're only 5 weeks into "the new normal". We are going to come back together in some way, before a vaccine, but it won't be like before. Or it will be...if you'd like to take the risk of getting infected before there's a vaccine.

It's as simple as that. Do you know anyone who isn't old or with pre-existing conditions who had a scary course of this disease? I do...two people, who were skiing in northern Italy, outside of their "quarantine zone" (at the time)....they flew home, self quarantined because by then Italy had quarantined all of the "north" of their country. These are two people, early 40s, who are incredibly fit athletic people. They were skiing in the Alps, just to give you an idea. They got sick...5 days for the wife, and 6 days for the husband after they returned home. They cut their trip short when they heard the news...about how bad it was getting. They both work in the healthcare industry, and so they wore masks and sanitized every bit of their plane seats, trays...etc. And they both had a very bad course. Both said that they've never been so sick. Both had fevers for over a week...the husband for 10 days. They have since recovered and are good enough souls that they risked going into the NYC to donate their plasma to help others at Mount Sinai in Manhattan.

And that was early on in my experience about hearing about this disease. I have a sister-in-law who is a manager of two units in our local hospital. It's one thing to see it on the news. It's quite another to hear it from your family member....what it's really like in those hospitals. This is not the flu. This is not norovirus.

Everyone is going to do, well...what they're going to do. But do so at your own risk. Also, keep an eye on the population that this virus is really tough on. It's attacking different countries in different ways, depending on the population. In our country, it's the elderly, obese, hypertensive, diabetic and immunosuppressive people.