Will this end up being the pandemic that cried wolf?

[DeniseJH]

Not what he was asking, do you go out when healthy during flu season or drive a car anytime during flu season.

Why wouldn't I? If I went out during regular flu season, and I'm not sick at the time, how does that put anyone else's health at risk? Answer: It doesn't. Also, my driving a car unimpaired doesn't endanger anyone else's health. If you're intimating of the fact that there are many car accidents I would say, yes, yes there are many car ACCIDENTS. I don't think people are going to ACCIDENTALLY leave their homes and find themselves getting a tattoo - that would be a conscious choice.

So I'll say again - I, nor anyone I know would make a conscious decision to do something KNOWING that it may threaten someone else's health/life. That is immoral in a decent society and there are laws against it.

 

[fatmanatee]

You can get a flu shot to protect yourself and others from the flu. You can't get a coronavirus shot.

 

[pahoben]

Actually Sweden is not forcing social isolation like the rest of its neighboring countries and has a much higher death rate for this reason.

The mortality rate (thank you jrb1979 but I could say the population fatality rate and not case fatality rate ) for Sweden as a percentage of population with no quarantine is .015% while in the US with quarantine .011%. Sweden is in better position going forward is in with more widespread immunity.

 

[mjkacmom]

One big thing multigenerational families living together in smaller houses/apartments, unsurprisingly similar to northern Itlay

More languages are spoken in Queens than anywhere else in the world.

 

[mjkacmom]

The mortality rate (thank you jrb1979 but I could say the population fatality rate and not case fatality rate ) for Sweden as a percentage of population with no quarantine is .015% while in the US with quarantine .011%. Sweden is in better position going forward is in with more widespread immunity.

Interesting, while scientists are watching this closely (and many doubtful) you have a crystal ball.

 

[pahoben]

Interesting, while scientists are watching this closely (and many doubtful) you have a crystal ball.

I am certainly willing to wager. Just keeping elementary schools open with the transmissivity of this virus provided huge antibody benefit in children.

 

[fatmanatee]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

 

[Colleen27]

The US currently has nearly 1/4 of the world Covid-19 deaths, despite having only approximately 4% of the world population. I cannot comprehend how a country that stands out as a world leader is not doing more to stop this.

I don't think any other functioning nation has our level of anti-government sentiment and resentment of authority. That is bound to hamper any effort that requires collective action.

I am actually for reopening ASAP like now where possible but Bowling Alleys and Nail saloons seem like nutty choices to me. Auto makers, clothing stores seem like a more realistic thing to open.
I am very excited they are opening back up the golf courses in NYC, many regulations but I am very happy.
And I do feel like countries that were over cautious are still going to be stuck in a bubble. New York and areas of California may have got lucky where large part of population now have and returning to some kind of workforce may be possible. However like I said prior it was a thin line that kept New York from completely being overrun where there would not have been enough responders to handle the situation. I think they are going to be shocked hen stats come out how many people have virus here. A big question is how imune are you if you had and it did not effect you.

It would be easier to manage bowling alleys and nail salons than factories. You can limit density in those places - only rent every other lane, only allow half of stations to operate, limit the total customer capacity, etc. - and they (and hair salons) are businesses that are used to having at least some cleaning and sanitization processes in place that can be expanded. There's not a lot that can be reconfigured on assembly lines to spread people out, and you can't just have some people not doing their parts of the process because the steps are so interdependent. Its also a lot easier to re-impose closures on businesses with minimal inventory and less complex supply chains.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/cor...an-reported-cases.html?&qsearchterm=la county
So, if you take the lower end of their estimate (30 times the number of cases) - the rate of fatality is .14% (1/10th of 1 percent) and the rate of hospitalization is .84% (8/10th of 1%). And that includes all the vulnerable. If we tell the vulnerable to be more cautious we don't have the big bad boogie man the media and certain officials are making this out to be.

I'm not sure that's how I'd characterize the study outcomes. It is promising, yes, but it hardly negates the seriousness of the virus. If those numbers hold, it has much higher hospitalization rates than flu and a comparable fatality rate... but with no immunity in the population and no vaccine to protect the most vulnerable, both of which we have for flu, that's still plenty bad.

But these studies do raise the possibility that in hard-hit areas, we may not see the sort of second wave many projections have warned about because enough of the population has already been exposed to begin slowing the spread. If you project the numbers from the L.A. study on Detroit, for example, the true size of the outbreak would be approaching 50% of the population. It will be very interesting to see if other serology studies outside of California find similar results because that would almost have to change the course of our response.

 

[Cogswel_Cogs]

I believe Elmhurst has subway running above it. I would not want to be walking and in contact with people walking under a subway knowing how this virus travels in water droplet.
I feel subway was a big problem in NY. Said on numerous chains here that NY did horrible ob not regulating Subway use. There were a lot of things they should have done with subways.

 

[pahoben]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

If you look at the table lower in the article you will see that Sweden is the only country that over reported Covid 19 deaths based on their analysis. They had 1100 excess deaths but reported 1160 excess deaths due to Covid 19.

 

[Colleen27]

Why wouldn't I? If I went out during regular flu season, and I'm not sick at the time, how does that put anyone else's health at risk? Answer: It doesn't.

Flu has asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic spread too. You could very well be spreading the disease to more vulnerable individuals then without knowing it, just like you could with COVID19 now.

I've been hesitant to use the flu comparisons because the parallel has been hijacked by those who are trying to minimize the seriousness of COVID19 but it does raise some interesting theoretical questions about our responses. If we did the things we're doing now every flu season, we could prevent tens of thousands of deaths each and every year. But we (collectively) have decided that isn't worth the effort so there is clearly some sort of threshold this virus has crossed, either in its newness or its apparently high preliminary case fatality rates or its close relation to SARS, that has prompted the level of response that we've implemented.

 

[cabanafrau]

[

I don't think any other functioning nation has our level of anti-government sentiment and resentment of authority. That is bound to hamper any effort that requires collective action.



It would be easier to manage bowling alleys and nail salons than factories. You can limit density in those places - only rent every other lane, only allow half of stations to operate, limit the total customer capacity, etc. - and they (and hair salons) are businesses that are used to having at least some cleaning and sanitization processes in place that can be expanded. There's not a lot that can be reconfigured on assembly lines to spread people out, and you can't just have some people not doing their parts of the process because the steps are so interdependent. Its also a lot easier to re-impose closures on businesses with minimal inventory and less complex supply chains.

Fear of the populace uniting behind a collective action, and thus against them, has always been paramount in the thoughts and strategies of Chinese leaders. It's probably one of the biggest reasons they attempted to keep the reality of the covid situation from their own people initially.

I disagree about nail salons. Seems like those dryers will provide a nice little assist for moving a virus around in the air.

 

[dvcgirl67]

[QUOTE="Colleen27, post: 61802797, member: 144445"

But these studies do raise the possibility that in hard-hit areas, we may not see the sort of second wave many projections have warned about because enough of the population has already been exposed to begin slowing the spread. If you project the numbers from the L.A. study on Detroit, for example, the true size of the outbreak would be approaching 50% of the population. It will be very interesting to see if other serology studies outside of California find similar results because that would almost have to change the course of our response.
[/QUOTE]

That's not what the serology studies out of the Bay Area or this once in LA County are showing.

• With just 4% of the population infected with the disease, LA County is still very early in the epidemic, said USC professor Neeraj Sood, who led the study.

They are showing that the number of confirmed cases they have are likely higher than their confirmed positives, but that it is still just 4% of the entire population of LA County. If true, what it does do is lower the fatality rate of the virus. But again, this means 96% of the that community is still vulnerable.

 

[Heather07438]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

Excessive deaths

Too many people didn't want to pay attention to that while citing how our deaths were over-counted with cancer patients dying from covid19. The mortality rate is not yet final but nothing indicated it was going to be lower than what had been recorded.

Optimism bias.

 

[pahoben]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

Also I haven’t seen this excess death analysis for the US. It would be very interesting to see this same data for the US.

 

[DeniseJH]

Flu has asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic spread too. You could very well be spreading the disease to more vulnerable individuals then without knowing it, just like you could with COVID19 now.

I've been hesitant to use the flu comparisons because the parallel has been hijacked by those who are trying to minimize the seriousness of COVID19 but it does raise some interesting theoretical questions about our responses. If we did the things we're doing now every flu season, we could prevent tens of thousands of deaths each and every year. But we (collectively) have decided that isn't worth the effort so there is clearly some sort of threshold this virus has crossed, either in its newness or its apparently high preliminary case fatality rates or its close relation to SARS, that has prompted the level of response that we've implemented.

I have never left the house during normal flu season with the knowledge that I was putting anyone else's health/life at risk. If I was sick, I'd stay home. If I knew that the virus was in my area, as is the case throughout the country right now, and I knew that the virus was easily spread I would stay home. It's the right thing to do.

 

[Heather07438]

Also I haven’t seen this excess death analysis for the US. It would be very interesting to see this same data for the US.

NYC is listed in there.

New York City Mar. 11 - Apr. 18

298%

17,200

−

13,240

=

4,000

In New York City, the number is now four times the normal amount.

 

[CarolAnn856]

Flu has asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic spread too. You could very well be spreading the disease to more vulnerable individuals then without knowing it, just like you could with COVID19 now.

I've been hesitant to use the flu comparisons because the parallel has been hijacked by those who are trying to minimize the seriousness of COVID19 but it does raise some interesting theoretical questions about our responses. If we did the things we're doing now every flu season, we could prevent tens of thousands of deaths each and every year. But we (collectively) have decided that isn't worth the effort so there is clearly some sort of threshold this virus has crossed, either in its newness or its apparently high preliminary case fatality rates or its close relation to SARS, that has prompted the level of response that we've implemented.

We can start with the fact that there is a vaccine for influenza, and that the rate it spreads is lower, that the incubation period for influenza is 1-4 days but 1-14 days for COVID-19, and the fact that hospitals have not been overwhelmed with patients needing vents for the flu. It's not a mystery to most people why the response to COVID-19 had to be radically different. I don't disagree that there are lessons we, collectively, could take from this and apply to other scenarios, but this is nothing like the flu.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Why wouldn't I? If I went out during regular flu season, and I'm not sick at the time, how does that put anyone else's health at risk? Answer: It doesn't.

Because you can be contagious with the flu prior to flu symptoms appearing. That does put other people's health at risk. We just don't tend to think about that.

I have never left the house during normal flu season with the knowledge that I was putting anyone else's health/life at risk. If I was sick, I'd stay home. If I knew that the virus was in my area, as is the case throughout the country right now, and I knew that the virus was easily spread I would stay home. It's the right thing to do.

The point being made is you don't know in the flu season anymore than you do with COVID-19. We have familiarity with the flu, we know a lot about the flu, we have a vaccine for the flu. Those play into our risk management aspects of our decision making skills. It's why a lot of us were annoyed with the continual flu comparisons because, as the PP stated, it downplayed this new virus as we had and still do have a lot of unknowns.

IMO one has to be careful making claims that they would stay home now because of this virus but don't associate the same risks with the flu when using the wording you have. In terms of contagion we know coronavirus is seemingly more contagious but that does not negate that both the flu and coronavirus have people contagious at times prior to symptoms even appearing. It doesn't come off the same when you say it's the right thing to do to stay home now when you don't stay home during the flu season with the reason being used that you're protecting other people's health because you're not sick at that time. You may not appear or feel sick with the flu and yet be contagious with it; same as coronavirus and both the person is unwitting about it.

**It's your reasoning that I'm commenting on, NOT anything else between the two because there are a lot of other reasons one should be limiting one's outtings and taking precautions while out during this coronavirus pandemic.

 

[xuxa777]

For those that have stated concern for children and people < 14 latest info from CDC as of today.

Since February 1, 2020, 169 children under the age of 14 have died of pneumonia or the flu not COVID. Only 3 have died from COVID. Nationwide

Under age 24: 20 COVID deaths and 115 influenza (regular flu) deaths.

Also only 510 deaths under 45 years old out of 190 million people under 45. Some other great info here from the CDC to put things into perspective

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm


Glad we closed schools for the year