Great advice. Thank you! We primarily want to tie DVC with annual passes because if we're going to commit to Disney vacations through DVC we want to make sure to have an option to get more affordable tickets (via an annual pass) whether they have a DVC discount attached or not. Right now, we can't get annual passes at any price.
I would say you are a very bad candidate for DVC ownership, because they can (and have!) take away APs at any time for any reason. Additionally, the DVC discount on APs is gone - the only thing it gets you is access to the slightly-cheaper Florida resident pass. But AP prices were ballooning too, last I looked, so I really don't know how affordable this is.
Dues--yeah. That would eventually become the "cost of the trip." And looking at what a (resale for sure!) contract would cost for like....80pts (which is enough for around a week in most of the studios for January, or banking/borrowing for every other year in a 1br) and then the yearly dues...it's not particularly far off from what we are paying to just rent points right now, especially with how many owners are becoming disenchanted with the current direction of the parks.
I'm sure you've seen dues charts. The popular resale sites all have them. Here's one:
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/buying/annual-dues/
Ignore Riviera and CCV. DVC has made a habit of over-estimating dues on new resorts, and subsequent years see very little dues increases as a result. I have my guess as to why they do this, but it's beyond the scope of this discussion. I would also point you to Hilton Head and Vero Beach - even though they're non-WDW resorts, the dues are much higher. Why? Higher maintenance as a result of the types of weather that they see. If there's hurricane damage, there may also be a special assessment members have to pay. This happened at WDW once, I think with Irma in 2017. Remember - DVC at its core is a condo association and you are on the hook for the costs of ownership.
Since you mentioned OKW, I think that's a nice way to determine what dues will do. OKW was the first and has existed the longest. It was also built in the style of efficiency, so in theory its dues should be relatively lower at same points of life compared to other resorts. OKW has the highest dues and the highest year-over-year growth of all WDW resorts. If you project out that 4.4% CAGR, you're at ~$13.55/point in 10 years. With 80 points, that goes from $704.80 this year to $1,084.00 in 2032. And that of course goes up if you buy more points (80 does not go far).
Studio v 1-br----we got SUPER lucky last year and rented a 1br at OKW for like $13/pt. Best. Stay. Ever. Having a full kitchen, a huge room, and laundry IN THE UNIT was amazing. I would never ever ever pay rack rate for any of the DVC resorts though. What I am finding (and I don't know how much longer this trend will last for...) is that I can rent dvc for nearly the same price (or less) as moderate resort or skyliner-access value resort. And not pay for parking.
I want to point out that if you're at all interested in the financial aspect of breaking even, 1-brs are unfairly priced in the DVC system. They're far too expensive for what they are, and annualizing your purchase price plus dues for an annual stay in a 1-br will almost never break even with paying rack rate.
I just want to make sure you read what I wrote. There is a room type in DVC - of which the single biggest sales pitch is year-over-year savings - that is
unlikely to ever break even, or if it does it will be so far out as to be an exceedingly poor financial decision (45-48 years). OKW has the best chance of breaking even over rack rates because the room is huge and OKW's
points charts are cheap compared to other resorts, but that's if and only if OKW's dues don't rocket. The dues have exceeded their CAGR the past 2 years, as I recall.
Remember too that DVC is contractually obligated to reallocate the points charts to meet demand. They've failed miserably at this, but they've noticeably shifted points charts lately. If you think you only need 80 points for your booking right now, buy 100 so you're protected.
So do I *really* need to be an owner when I can just rent the points and not have to front the cost of the purchase?
I don't think you do. Every year there are new DVC owners who don't do their research and who are left with points they can't use or can't afford. There are also plenty of regular renters, but ostensibly they are going to want to make a profit, so as dues balloon, so do rental rates as owners seek to recoup dues + annualized buy-in + taxable income. But there will always be distressed points. And frankly, the value proposition of every-other-year DVC isn't there. It just isn't. In your shoes, the absolute best thing to do is keep renting. You will never beat $13/point at OKW every other year by buying. Honestly, at recent and today's prices, I think DVC is a bad financial decision, period. You'd be better off taking the buy-in money and investing it and adding the annual dues every year. Use the investment money to go to Disney when you want and stay where and how you want. If you ever stop or reduce how much you go, or worse if something bad happens, you'll have your investment money. If you must have a timeshare to ensure you take annual or every-other-year vacations, I think you can do better than DVC. But that's another topic.
But my brain also says "If we own DVC, then DH can't say no to a trip every year or every other year.
Now you're starting to think like a real Disney executive!
I am curious as to why you decided to sell. But it's also not really any of my business. Just one of those things where I like to understand people's reasonings for things.
This is part of it:
especially with how many owners are becoming disenchanted with the current direction of the parks.
Additionally, we are building a house, and ballooning annual dues and required very expensive vacations to the same destination became something we simply didn't want to take on. We never wanted to make a decision between dues or home maintenance. And while historically, selling has been easy, there's no guarantee this will continue to be the case, so we got out while we could. As mentioned, 80 points don't go very far. We had 160. Those dues bills were expensive, either as a one-time windfall or yet another monthly payment that we don't need. We still like runDisney weekends, but you don't need DVC for that.
On top of all that, DVC is meant to be occupied year-round, and people treat those rooms like they treat rental cars. I was tired of paying so much money for tired, worn down rooms. At least if there's an issue in a hotel room, the front desk can help you. With DVC, you're at the mercy of a call center. You can more or less forget about everything you know about Disney customer service once you're bought in, as well (because they've got you). On the whole this never bothered me, until there was a problem, then it was
infuriating.
ANYway, this turned out way longer than I planned - sorry! I have a lot of thoughts as a once-owner now sold.