Grand CAL. How much lower will the prices drop ???

[FFMickey]

Also, I think Disney’s last hotel expansion into DTD was canceled because Anaheim pulled the tax incentive. It’d be hard to ask for less tax after that.

 

[NorCalFanatic]

I think after the Covid shutdown, Anaheim/Orange County realized how much of an impact the lost of tourist $$$ from Disney is, it was upwards of $3 billion! While I don’t expect them to bend over backwards going forward, I also don’t expect them to be as combative as they have been in the past.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I think after the Covid shutdown, Anaheim/Orange County realized how much of an impact the lost of tourist $$$ from Disney is, it was upwards of $3 billion! While I don’t expect them to bend over backwards going forward, I also don’t expect them to be as combative as they have been in the past.

This. I think Anaheim is on a slow trajectory to return to the more or less supportive position they had with Disney for the first 40 or so years. About 10 years ago, there was a more liberal and ethnically diverse influence that took over the City Council that was highly critical of the sweetheart deals the city had made with Disney and the Angels and money that many felt had been left on the table. That attitude was reflected, in part, in the cancellation of the resort originally planned to be built on DTD's west end, and the conflicts over the city's minimum wage ordinances. Post-pandemic, there was a strong shift towards a return to the more amicable relationship, but the corruption issues surrounding Mayor Harry Sidhu and the Angels forced a slow roll for fear that Disney would be drawn into the Sidhu/Angels mess (there were tangential connections at best). Ironically, Sidhu was a regular presence out on Harbor Blvd. during the shut down, practically begging Disney to reopen the parks and hotels, a far cry from his immediate predecessors.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

This. I think Anaheim is on a slow trajectory to return to the more or less supportive position they had with Disney for the first 40 or so years. About 10 years ago, there was a more liberal and ethnically diverse influence that took over the City Council that was highly critical of the sweetheart deals the city had made with Disney and the Angels and money that many felt had been left on the table. That attitude was reflected, in part, in the cancellation of the resort originally planned to be built on DTD's west end, and the conflicts over the city's minimum wage ordinances. Post-pandemic, there was a strong shift towards a return to the more amicable relationship, but the corruption issues surrounding Mayor Harry Sidhu and the Angels forced a slow roll for fear that Disney would be drawn into the Sidhu/Angels mess (there were tangential connections at best). Ironically, Sidhu was a regular presence out on Harbor Blvd. during the shut down, practically begging Disney to reopen the parks and hotels, a far cry from his immediate predecessors.

don't bite the hand that feeds you.....

 

[CaliAdventurer]

Yeah, I never understood the hype for VDH over VGC. Location, location, location. However, the debacle with VDH preceded by the negative trend setting by Riviera, makes DVC rather unattractive for new buyers.

To paraphrase Darth Vader, Disney has altered the deal; pray they don’t alter it any further. And the political risk is eyebrow-raising. California is going to milk the Disney Dairy Cow dry to Magic Kingdom come, that’s a given.

But what on earth is the “political genius” Iger thinking in Florida!!?? Dude, take the L. Disney could’ve lobbied and bought off favors behind the scenes allowing the state to get the superficial win while Disney carried on. Reedy Creek was yesterday’s news. Instead, Iger goes all-in on picking a monstrous political battle he won’t win. Talk about the most divisive topic in the current environment? Unbelievable. You can bet the state will be punitive in response. Disney is doing everything wrong all at once. I get people will still be willing to drop $40k on a contract…but oh man, the state may just impose hefty taxes. It’s like do I want to buy a $40k hotel room that may get an additional excise tax courtesy of incompetent Disney management that insist on being outspoken politicians challenging the state’s authority?

It’s tricky when you’re the states’ largest employer. With great power come great responsibility. If Disney didn't fight what I personally see as a matter not principle (and considered doing it before Iger stepped in), I’d be out completely. I’ve calculated that my family gives the Disney Co a minimum of 60k a year, each year not counting the hundreds of thousands in dvc points paid. We’re all in but that would evaporate from us if Disney let Florida carry on unchallenged and I’m not alone, including many employees.
Dis has thousands of data points on each guest, they’ve done the math and are acting accordingly. If California gets too “greedy” and it’s a deal breaker for me then I’ll sell my VGC points, easy. We all have the vote of our wallets which we see happening now with VDH. So far, DVC hasn’t flinched with their strategies. It will be interesting to see how it all unfolds.

 

[DisVDS]

I think that the run-up in VGC prices is an over-reaction to the VDH news. I also think the drop down to $225 and increased inventory was also partially due to people waiting for VDH points chart. So my prediction is that we will settle into the $240-250pp range in the next 3-4 months.

It does make me sad I passed on August add-on @ 225, since I was holding out for Sept. I only have 180 points which is not quite enough to cover my expected yearly usage, but I have ~3 years before I use up all of the banked points.

Although, the $3 in extra ToT and MF means equates a $100 price difference pp between VDH and VGC, so based on that you can argue VGC could be worth $330 today. But once VDH resale comes on at ~150-160 pp in a couple of years you are back to that ~250 pp.

 

[Stank]

I think that the run-up in VGC prices is an over-reaction to the VDH news. I also think the drop down to $225 and increased inventory was also partially due to people waiting for VDH points chart. So my prediction is that we will settle into the $240-250pp range in the next 3-4 months.

It does make me sad I passed on August add-on @ 225, since I was holding out for Sept. I only have 180 points which is not quite enough to cover my expected yearly usage, but I have ~3 years before I use up all of the banked points.

Although, the $3 in extra ToT and MF means equates a $100 price difference pp between VDH and VGC, so based on that you can argue VGC could be worth $330 today. But once VDH resale comes on at ~150-160 pp in a couple of years you are back to that ~250 pp.

I agree with a lot of that. There’s also an upper-bound limit to finance, and VGC will be subject to it. Likewise, VDH resales will present a far discounted alternative upfront. The average holding period of DVC is, what, about a decade? So the $2.73 pp tax is minimal. It’s essentially the proposition of buying Vero to stay at WDW. Your entry fee is lower but higher dues.

I think the problem is people are looking at VGC vs VDH and assigning this $100 premium based on lifetime contract cost with tax. Logical, but not what happens in reality. Look at the 2042s. Look at OKW extensions vs. not. There’s a lot of illogical pricing because humans aren’t very good at compounding, let alone understanding discounting and time value. So I think the spread between VGC and VDH will tighten. Which means VGC will have to give.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I think that the run-up in VGC prices is an over-reaction to the VDH news. I also think the drop down to $225 and increased inventory was also partially due to people waiting for VDH points chart. So my prediction is that we will settle into the $240-250pp range in the next 3-4 months.

It does make me sad I passed on August add-on @ 225, since I was holding out for Sept. I only have 180 points which is not quite enough to cover my expected yearly usage, but I have ~3 years before I use up all of the banked points.

Although, the $3 in extra ToT and MF means equates a $100 price difference pp between VDH and VGC, so based on that you can argue VGC could be worth $330 today. But once VDH resale comes on at ~150-160 pp in a couple of years you are back to that ~250 pp.

It’s tough because VGC resale is VGC, AUL, and most of WDW.

VDH resale will be only VDH. Very different value proposition.

Just like VDH direct is VDH, VGC (maybe?), Aulani, and everything now and in the future at WDW.

Given that dues are the same, VDH direct is worth the premium to the potential VDH resale, IMO. The cost over the long run won’t be that different.

 

[Stank]

It’s tough because VGC resale is VGC, AUL, and most of WDW.

VDH resale will be only VDH. Very different value proposition.

Just like VDH direct is VDH, VGC (maybe?), Aulani, and everything now and in the future at WDW.

Given that dues are the same, VDH direct is worth the premium to the potential VDH resale, IMO. The cost over the long run won’t be that different.

Hmmm…I almost view VGC as restricted points anyway. Laying out $250-300 to trade down to WDW stays that can be had for half that resale doesn’t seem too appealing very often.

VDH is more like Vero, only you actually want to buy and stay at VDH. It’s something you buy and use for 10-15 years and then move on. Vero you buy for $50 pp and wince at the dues bill to start the year.

 

[MartyParty]

Hmmm…I almost view VGC as restricted points anyway. Laying out $250-300 to trade down to WDW stays that can be had for half that resale doesn’t seem too appealing very often.

VDH is more like Vero, only you actually want to buy and stay at VDH. It’s something you buy and use for 10-15 years and then move on. Vero you buy for $50 pp and wince at the dues bill to start the year.

Excellent point on VGC being unofficially "unrestricted". Hadn't thought of it that way. Of course they are not but overall folks buying VGC voluntarily restricted themselves to VGC.

I know this is an unpopular opinion but I will be buying some VDH points but fewer than planned due to cost. Let the beatings begin!

Its a bit of a long story with family, pre-retirement, etc. but basically boils down to going to Disneyland / Cali Adventures more frequently and staying with the perks of being in the bubble.

You all go easy on me....

 

[elenex]

Excellent point on VGC being unofficially "unrestricted". Hadn't thought of it that way. Of course they are not but overall folks buying VGC voluntarily restricted themselves to VGC.

I know this is an unpopular opinion but I will be buying some VDH points but fewer than planned due to cost. Let the beatings begin!

Its a bit of a long story with family, pre-retirement, etc. but basically boils down to going to Disneyland / Cali Adventures more frequently and staying with the perks of being in the bubble.

You all go easy on me....

I'll be honest and say that I totally get it and don't fault you one bit. We were super close to buying VDH even though we don't like the theming and generally just prefer the Grand. The only thing that saved us was a reasonably priced VGC contract. If that hadn't happened, we probably would've bit the bullet and bought VDH despite our complaints.

We also typically do a stay in January, and have enough direct points to do VDH in 2024. So maybe we'll give it a chance and if we're surprised by it, maybe buy 50 points to use every couple of years.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Excellent point on VGC being unofficially "unrestricted". Hadn't thought of it that way. Of course they are not but overall folks buying VGC voluntarily restricted themselves to VGC.

I know this is an unpopular opinion but I will be buying some VDH points but fewer than planned due to cost. Let the beatings begin!

Its a bit of a long story with family, pre-retirement, etc. but basically boils down to going to Disneyland / Cali Adventures more frequently and staying with the perks of being in the bubble.

You all go easy on me....

Good for you!

 

[ClaraOswald]

I bet these new ones will disappear fairly quickly. I wish dis people would buy them so I could see what they actually sell for. Ha!

 

[AstroBlasters]

I just did my first multiple UY combine and book at 11m for our 2024 spring break in a 2BD VGC.

I got through to MS quickly and they made it very easy.

So, I think 2 UYs for VGC is totally workable as long as the MS hold times are reasonable.

… pondering adding on 2 nights at VDH if available with my Aulani points at 7m….not for more days at the park, but to do more of a theme parks in early morning and night and go bop around SoCal during the day….I have until August to decide.

 

[FFMickey]

I just did my first multiple UY combine and book at 11m for our 2024 spring break in a 2BD VGC.

I got through to MS quickly and they made it very easy.

So, I think 2 UYs for VGC is totally workable as long as the MS hold times are reasonable.

… pondering adding on 2 nights at VDH if available with my Aulani points at 7m….not for more days at the park, but to do more of a theme parks in early morning and night and go bop around SoCal during the day….I have until August to decide.

That's good to know if we decide to get more VGC points. Aug UY has been hard to find at least while I've been looking.

 

[Sandisw]

The DIS does not allow For Sale posts and that includes sharing the link to contracts listed with brokers. There would be no way for us to verify who owns the contract that is being posted and could be a work around that rule.

I have removed posts and further posts will be deleted with warnings issued.

 

[AstroBlasters]

The DIS does not allow For Sale posts and that includes sharing the link to contracts listed with brokers. There would be no way for us to verify who owns the contract that is being posted and could be a work around that rule.

I have removed posts and further posts will be deleted with warnings issued.

If we are posting a link to the site and letting the filter do its job, why can we not share listings?

 

[Sandisw]

If we are posting a link to the site and letting the filter do its job, why can we not share listings?

As I said, the board does not allow For Sale posts and as mods, we have no way of knowing if the link being shared is by the person selling that contract.

If we allowed people to post links to contracts for sale, not only would the boards be filled with them, but it would then be advertising contracts For Sale.

So, its not the link that is the issue, but the fact that what you are doing is posting something For Sale, regardless of the fact that it may not belong to you and the board rules prohibit that.

 

[ClaraOswald]

I just did my first multiple UY combine and book at 11m for our 2024 spring break in a 2BD VGC.

I got through to MS quickly and they made it very easy.

So, I think 2 UYs for VGC is totally workable as long as the MS hold times are reasonable.

… pondering adding on 2 nights at VDH if available with my Aulani points at 7m….not for more days at the park, but to do more of a theme parks in early morning and night and go bop around SoCal during the day….I have until August to decide.

Do you were able to book at the 11 month window of 1 contract and use points from another UY that was outside the 11 month window?

 

[FFMickey]

Do you were able to book at the 11 month window of 1 contract and use points from another UY that was outside the 11 month window?

The 11 month window would be the same as it is based from the date of check in as long as the points are active during the stay.