Analyst's Questions - "No church for Easter Sunday"

[Peter Pirate]

Well, most of you are reading into what I've said...I admit DCA is a failure and the plan a flop (so I'm not calling everything steak, Bob). As to Walt's opinions, I clearly stated that this was MY OPINON of what Walt would/wouldn't like...Based on my knowledge of the man this is what I believe...

Next, Walt opened DL unfinished becase he was so bull headed he couldn't stand a postponment until it was complete. As for AK, come on Voice, you know the original plans and you know why they cut it short (IOA turned out NOT to be the factor they worried it would be)...You can't tell me you don't understand that strategy? They'll build BK when the time is right but why forge ahead with a complete park and hope it pays off? I'm sure Vivendi wishes the buildiers of IOA hadn't been so hasty for now they're stuck with a high tech, complete park 'dog' that they'd unload the minute they could find a sucker...er, buyer to pay for it!

 

[Peter Pirate]

I thought I was agreeing with you ...But, the hours are significant to the "AK is not a whole day crowd". I don't believe it matters at all in the scheme of what WDW was trying to accomplish & I don't beleive it has been too worrisome that AK doesn't draw a lot one day park purchases but I'll bet they CAN quantify that it has added to peoples 'on property' time...

 

[PKS44]

Oh where to begin...

First-
AK offers the guest fewer options/attractions than any other park-OBJECTIVE FACT.
AK admission COSTS the same as every other park-OBJECTIVE FACT.
AK does not feature the architectural whimsy/"weenies" that Walt insisted were vital to park layout-OBJECTIVE FACT-(The Tree of Life is one "weenie"..I guess that yellow dinosaur they just added to Dinoland is finally a second...every other park features interesting and or large structures to "draw" the guest around.
AK walkways are narrower than any other park walkways-OBJECTIVE FACT

The whole build it small and wait til they come mentality is a mistake -opinion, but this will be proven by Objective Facts. Some facts already exist. They have the AK meal coupons-why? No other park has to discount to get guests to buy food there...DCA discounting has been well covered- I do not believe they have EVER had to discount admissions like this in the past. People have figured out to NOT come when they open these new parks because they have now come to associate new with Unfinished and unsatisfying because that is what happens when you try to save money by cutting the one thing you built your whole business on-SERVICE. People have been willing to pay a premium to go with Disney because Disney offered superior SERVICE. Now Disney is cutting service to try to boost the bottom line- works in the short run- kills in the long run. Kills customer goodwill and loyalty, kills employees satisfaction on the job...did I read somewhere that CM were told to work to increase per guest spending? What idiot gave the CM's that mandate. That is not a CM goal, that is an end achieved through CM's doing an amazing job providing that Disney magic. What number on the earnings report will leave the CM's and the management feeling fulfilled and satisfied? Numbers/Money won't do it...get them working for that and you have destroyed what really satisfies anyone working...that they are doing a good job, creating something be it a product or service...

In Tokyo they have understood thing need to be different...service is the goal, and the profits are rolling in -in a country/region parlyzed by recession for a decade! You know they have a different system.. You can buy a nonride admission to the parks, or a limited ticket or the sort of passes we have here...Brilliant! People come in -they shop, they buym some probably get sucked into the magic and upgrade...no such imagination here...just cut down the product to the bone and watch the short term growth---and if no change, the long term death of a once great company...

 

[Bob O]

Peter Pirate where is their any eivdence that Universal wants too or is trying to unload IOA???? And what the defintion of a "complete dog park"??? If you are trying to build a park to "wow" your guests you dont scale it back just because your competition may not be as rough as you thought it was going to be. If thats the case why wasnt Epcot opened with just future world or World showcase and open the other portion a decade ot two later??? They had a idea and built it to that idea and didnt scale it back intentionally to save money like they did at AK.
And park hours have to be built into any equation to decide if a park is a half day or full day park!!! If the demand was their for increased hours disney would keep the park hours open longer and and the animals would still be fine if the park was open till midnight!! But due to low attendance they have no need at all to extend park hours, but if the park was a full day park like MK or Epcot they would have to increase the hours.
So according to Peter Pirate the new disney philosphy should be to build a park with as little as possible to get people in the door, charge full price for it and only add on when it is has to be done, dont have the intention to give the guests a complete park. But of course the results of that are DCA/AK which have attendance problems and TDS, built to a different game plan where people make reservations far in advance and the park is going over their projections!!
If that was the case at Epcot maybe now they would be in the process of adding either future world/world showcase because their was no reason to have both sections when the park was opened, no reason to "wow" your customers with a full day park.

 

[ParrotHead]

Larworth... Would you happen to have a transcript of the conference call? I listened to it live, but would like to read one...

 

[Peter Pirate]

Bob the evidence that IOA is a 'dog' and I use that as a financial metaphor only, is that it (the building of it) nearly bankupted it's previous owner, Vivenidi upon buying Universal made many not so thinly veiled comments about wishing to divest of the theme park business. In future business discussion they have purposly highlighted the underperformance of the parks in order to highlight the general well being of the American holdings. They have recently been forced to hire a true theme park professional (one who should still be with Disney) to try and minimize the drag on the spreadsheet...

If Vivendi received any decent offer for the theme parks, the french congclomerate would glady be out of the theme park business.

As for AK...Perhaps you're right Bob, maybe it could be adapted to nightime hours without undue stress on the animals but I have always perceived (and this is JUST my perception) that AK was never intended to be an evening park...

Now, as to the Peter Pirate philosophy...No that isn't my philosophy Bob, it's Disney's...I just understand it and I believe it works well for WDW, but not in all cases. Now pay attention here for I will again say that this WAS A MISERABLE FAILURE IN CALIFORNIA. Eisner and all the rest should have known better and should have their hands held to the fire for it. Further, any new venture (i.e. a Park in Texas or Virginia) would have to be built to much more COMPLETE standards and IMAGINATION than DCA, AK, or MGM as more duplicity in another American park JUST WOULDN"T FLY.

Now, I know I'm the opposing voice here, but hope I've at least shown that I'm not a walking rubber stamp...Also, you guys have got to remember that very often without my view (accurate or misguided) of the other side our discusions would become nothing more than a 'bash-in'...And what chance of learning anything do we have from that? And in the final analysis I actually do hope to learn something from you clowns!

 

[PKS44]

I have a hard time understanding how Ak cannot have nighttime hours for the sakeof the animals and yet AKL stays open 24 hours a day with the animals out about over there.

 

[Peter Pirate]

AKL animals get a break during the day for their check-ups & so forth. Further, the Savannah's at AKL were built with the thought of continuous presentation in mind and according to the AKL CM's, AK was not built that way and the animals have not been 'trained' that way. I'm not saying it coudn't be changed, but I don't believe night time viewing was ever planned at AK.

Note: There HAVE been a couple of nightime events at AK with the use of the animals, so perhaps the only nightime drawback is the animal check-up time. I realize I could be wrong on this, I'm relaying what I have come to believe...

 

[Another Voice]

It is my understanding that Animal Kingdom was designed and built to operate will “normal” operating hours, i.e. nights. Bad attendance and a desire to shuffle people off to other ticketed attractions (Pleasure Island) and other money-making activities have keep both AK and the Studios are reduced hours. And will for the foreseeable future.

The San Diego Zoo runs a wildly successful “Zoo After Dark” program all summer long. In fact, they host sleepovers too. And SDZ certainly has many more animals, and many more sensitive animals, than AK. The “animals need a rest” line is just more spin. In fact, most of the animals at AK are more nocturnal than they are day-active. That’s the reason why Walt dropped the idea of having real animals on the original ‘Jungle Cruise’ – the critters are only interesting at night. Kinda funny when you think about it.

Universal’s theme parks had ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with the problems at MCA and its sale to Vivendi. Universal had their version of Michael Eisner to deal with and he promptly drove the company into the ground by selling off key components, dropping gobs of cash on the internet, and spending tons of money on bad movies. Universal’s big plan was to become the dominant music company in the world and spent HUGE bucks in acquisitions – just as the global music industry went bust.

Vivendi is a sewer, bottled water and cell phone company. Worse, they’re French. The parks are a microscopic part of their enterprise. They don’t even break it out on their financials statements. They looked to sell the parks after buying MCA as a way of raising some quick cash. Exactly the same deal that Michael Eisner tried to pull off with EPCOT Center and Disneyland when he first took over. And no one ever accussed Eisner of dumping the parks because they were “dogs”.

The executive that Universal brought on board was hired to open the amazingly successful Universal Studios Japan, not to rescue a flounder theme park in Florida that threatened to shut down every toilet in Paris. Like any good company, you move your best executives to where they will do the most good. For Universal, that means moving him to Orlando. For Disney I suggest they move their top executive to Paraguay, but that’s another thread.

All of the spin coming out of Disney these days is nothing but excuse-making for incompetent management. They complain about market conditions and the weather for the problems at DCA – yet Legoland has been tremendously successful because they identified their audience and built a place that meets their expectations. And Legoland is stuck in the middle of no where, not a fifty yards from the best known theme park in the world. The entire “we’ll fill it out” lie is just a way to paper over their initial miscalculations and their fear about investing real money into a real product.

If Animal Kingdom was supposed to be this master planned, controlled expansion development designed to return the maximum return – why did they throw in the slapped-together Dino-Rama instead of following with the “plan” for Beastly Kingdom? Pee Wee Herman might be able to get away with saying “I meant to do that!”, but Michael Eisner just doesn’t have that kind of acting ability.

 

[Bob O]

I wish i was as articulate as AV but another great post that i wish i had written!!!
Peter Pirate i always enjoy reading your posts and the captains/dscoops posts, because even though we may disagree it does make me think about my position and justify it the best i can, and that is good and fun!!!
Im in favor of disney using the standards that built DL and MK/Epcot/TDS but that they have gotten away from in their newer parks to make more money by not giving the guests a full day experience. Its a calculated company plan to make money money by barely meeting expectations and getting by on their reputation.
I always believed Ak was going to have later hours but due to people leaving the park en masse befole its closed they have used the spin that the animals need a rest. They can always schedule animal health checkups so that their are animals to be viewed by the public.
Points regarding IOA/Universal were made by AV better than i could have!!
Maybe its me or other parts of this site and not the people on this board but i find people here to be alot more forgiving of disney's screwups than they would be of their local grocery store as a example. Because of decades of goodwill people give disney the benefit of the doubt that they wouldnt give to other companies and except IMHO a lesser product from parks like Ak/DCA as examples or animated films that dont live up to the companies standards(you know, films like that now made by pixar).

 

[Peter Pirate]

But then why has AK NEVER operated at those normal hours?

Again, I don't know how to respond to most of your post, but I see the arguments of what has happened at AK & DCA sooooo differently. AK IS a great park with still more potential. The additon of DR is a small thing but in no way signals the end of AK expansion. BK will come and so will another animal adventure. DCA was a blown opportunity, but that doesn't mean it can't/won't be salvaged (reworked) into another very good park & remember park # 3 is on the drawing board at DL (right?).

Perhaps the curent regime is stuck with in a poor business model with regard to building their parks and attractions at the current time, but still MGM wasn't complete when it was opened and now it is as big a part of WDW as MK or Epcot (if you don't agree here we're just jousting at windmills) and so is AK. EuroDisney failed (asyou noted) but it was brought back quite well. The DD idea was stagnent as VillageMaketplace but a hip, new idea for the same premis has been hugely succesful & copied. So I contend that just because Disney makes a mistake or two or thre doesn't mean the end product won't have developed its own magic by the time the next generation comes around.

 

[Another Voice]

AK was never opened “full” hours because even Disney recognized that the place was a half-day park. With the cancellation of Beastly Kingdom and the budget slashing postponement of Asia, there simply wasn’t enough to do. And it was born out even during the very first week of operation when the entire park was a ghost town by 1:00pm. Going back even further, it was also recognized that Disney/MGM was a half day park when it opened. There was a huge internal debate about charging full price for the place. As ever, greed won out.

The best fix Disney has these days to any problems is to slash. Animal Kingdom is underwhelming – it gets cut. Hours, entire lands, food service; everything was cut. California Adventure was even worse. They had to give the place away just to avoid the embarrassment of closing the entire park.

It doesn’t seem that Disney is building small and then growing. It seems they’re building cheap and then shrinking to match their customer’s disappointment.

Mr. Pirate, please read Mr. Eisner’s comment at the top of this thread again. It’s obvious that he doesn’t think there are any problems to fix. How can one create a fix when one doesn’t see the problem? Certainly neither Dino-Rama nor Flick’s Fun Faire are going to fix either Animal Kingdom or California Adventure. Both are small ideas for small budgets from small minds. The Studios and Euro Disney were fixed because people understood the problems. Those people were laid off years ago.

What will cause the places to be fixed is for the public to respond. Or I should say continue to respond. The only reason even the gestures of Dino-Rama and Flick’s were created in the first place was because the public is shunning both parks. When both of those additions fail to produce the desired results, we’ll see another round of cuts and hopefully another gesture. But the solution won’t come for a while.

Building a public failure and then trying to fix it is not a sound business method.

 

[Bob O]

Peter Pirate AK has never run at noght because their is no need to with there current attendance prbolems. But if the park would have been built to its original concept things would be much different. If disney had wanted to wow the guests Bk/Asia would have been built at the begining, things would have been different and it may have been a great park. How many years should the consumer pay full price to go to the park till disney decides to give their guests a complete park. And of course eisner laughs all the way to the bank as he gives us half day parks for decades until he does what should have been done at the park opening. Its just nice the people at DL have sent the proper message by not going to the park!

 

[lrodk]

I think that even if you look back at DL it didn’t really take off, from 3 to 10 million in attendance, until Space Mountain was put in. Same thing in Europe.

This phrase demonstrates perfectly just how out-of-touch Mr Eisner is with the parks. You would think he'd know the ins and outs of a division that accounts for over 30% of the company's revenues.

I've looked back at DL as he suggested, and even double checked Disneyland Paris' numbers.

Disneyland reached the 10 millionth guest mark at the end of 1957, just two years and three months after opening. By the time SM opened in 1975 DL had drawn close to 150 million guests(avg of 7.5 million per year). Space Mountain did not open until 1977, thus having little impact on attendance prior to that.

Disneyland Paris' numbers were even more impressive. In it's first year of operation(1992), after having opened in April, DLP drew 10 million guests, without the benefit of Space Mountain. Essentially they went from 0 to 10 million right off the bat. Attendance slumped by 2% the second year, compounded with an 8% slump in 1994. This prompted the developement and subsequent opening of Space Mountain in May of 1995. Attendance went from 8.8 million in 1994(it's weakest year) to 10.7 million in 1995( a 22% increase). While SM had a dramatic effect on attendanec in 1995, it did not take off from "from 3 to 10 million in attendance" as was originally implied.

Me thinks Mr Eisner is in dire need of a refresher course at Disney U.

 

[PKS44]

Disagreed. Disagreed. And then disagreed again. To me, this is totally subjective. I think Harambe is one of the best themed "places" in all of WDW.

No-the absence or presence of a "weenie" is not subjective, it has nothing to do with theming-it has to do with architectural fact. There are architects who have written about the brilliant design of Disneyland and Dinsey parks in general with special attention to how the parks use architecture in very specific ways...if you are not familiar with the "weenie" concept it refers to a treat that a trainer gives an animal to get it to move in a particular direction. Other than Tree of Life they have ignored the "weenie" concept---in Camp MinnieMickey they have given up almost any attempt to draw the guest in- yes there is design and theme in AK but when you stand in the central hub and look off in any direction WHAT does one see to draw you in any particular direction? Answer- narrow pathways. When one stands in any other park there are large, fanciful structures to see that "beckon" the visitor away from the center...

As a stockholder I am glad there are at least a few people like scoop who like AK- As a stockholder and theme park fan who does not think AK is much more than a very expensive zoo-like experience (maybe we are spoiled in Saint Louis)-AK is a disappointment. I think the people have spoken as to whether AK is a success-you know there is a reason Disney is offering food discounts there and only there and special deals for Florida residents to visit that park and that park only...never had to do with that with any other park...those discounts and special offers are OBJECTIVE FACT- and Disney would not have to offer them if enough people liked the park.

Paul

 

[kenjean]

But, other than maybe the World Showcase, AK was designed as a passive experience...kind of like Tom Sawyer Island or the island formerly known as Discovery.

I wonder if it was designed that way, or just built that way.

 

[larworth]

Vivendi: No argument that IOA probably wasn’t the hit the previous owners expected out of the gate, but Seagram’s was a pretty big company and I don’t think IOA brought them anywhere close to bankruptcy. I agree with the previous comments that cash and questions about whether theme parks are core assets for mega media giants were the major drivers in Vivendi’s deliberations.

Given Vivendi’s current corporate performance I find it very encouraging they may start reinvesting in their parks again. I was afraid they were going to limp along while Vivendi used their cash to fix other more broken parts (sounds familiar doesn’t it).

The audience: We do need to remember who they are talking to in these calls, it’s the stock analysts. They are trying to make the future look better than today and to reinforce how good of managers they are. They think cost cuts and conservative investment strategies are what the street wants to hear. Unfortunately, it does leave us guessing if it is just spin or do they really believe some of this. Given the DL/DLP data provided the space mountain comments are disturbing, and do they think ToT is really all that is standing in the way of DCA being a gigantic park?

Each resort is different: I don’t have as much of a problem as others with DAK being a partial park. I think this strategy can work at WDW. I do have a problem with misrepresenting (or misreading) the value provided. Neither are signs of a good management team.

Another mindset example? There are plenty of gray areas in these business decisions. Building it “light” to start with may be the right choice for DSP, HKDL and maybe even for DCA if it had been done correctly!! It just seems like another example of an “error on the shorterm profit side” mindset. When confronted in the past with these gray areas they used to make sure they errored on the side of the customer. Both have the potential to not deliver optimum results, but one may be a more effective operating style.

 

[airlarry!]

Sir Scoop:

I'm trying to follow this fast moving thread as best as I can...but some of these statements bandied about lately seem to assume we are talking about AK as it exists today.

I am an AK fan. I will stress that again.

But AK as it existed on its opening day did not have the River Rapids nor its complementary trek. I can't remember if CTX was open or not, but I liken not having Asia or BK to opening the MK or a similar park without two of its signature lands, something we know would never happen.


Oops.


Hmm.


<checks his map of Hong Kong's MK>


Er....I think the term is "Modus Operandi".

 

[Tik Tok]

Originally posted by thedscoop

Sure, this is not unique at Disney, especially not at World Showcase and some Epcot pavilions, but it's a strong emphasis at AK.

I wonder if that is really the entire problem with Animal Kingdom - it's passive nature. I think we can all agree that most people expect a lot of rides when they visit a Disney park - it's just something we've all come to expect over the years. So I would imagine that most visitors to AK would be expecting more attractions, and would probably be dissapointed by the offerings found there -- especially when compared to the number of attractions at MK or EPCOT.

I have a feeling that AK would work a lot better for the vast majority of guests if they took some time to add about 5 or 6 new attractions (maybe two E's and the rest C's and D's) - but attractions that are truly rides, and not walk-throughs experiences. I realize that Imagineering was going for something else with AK, but I just don't think the average tourist is looking for that sort of thing from a Disney park, and Disney should adjust their strategy accordingly.

 

[OnWithTheShow]

How many true "Rides" does EPCOT have? Hmmm....Spaceship Earth, Universe of Energy, Body Wars, Test Track, the Land, and Maelstorm. I would have to say that EPCOT is at least as Passive as AK if not more so.