April Incentives - What Are Your Predictions?

[Tatebeck]

The only time I have stayed at my home resort has been Aulani.

"Buy where you want to stay" is insanely overblown because 7 month availability is nowhere near as dire as people like to imply. Especially if you have enough points for 1 bedrooms.

Buy where the math makes sense, taking into account the initial purchase price and likely dues. You'll be able to stay everywhere. Not every date or every trip, but over the course of your membership.

Unless, of course, you ONLY want to stay at the same resort every single trip. In which case, sure, buy there.

I would heavily disagree. Everyone keeps reporting that in recent years 7 month availability has been getting worse and worse. Whether that's because of a lot of members trying to get cheap sleep around points, speculative renting, or the newer resorts having more strict resale restrictions, it really doesn't matter. Though it's probably a bit of each.

If you are fine spinning a roulette wheel each time you stay, are very flexible with dates, only want 1 bedrooms, etc it could work for you, but seemingly will get harder over time. I wouldn't buy the cheapest beach house with higher maintenance/upkeep costs in a neighborhood hoping to rent it out and then rent at a different house that I liked better just down the street each time. Way too much risk and work for only a slight potential benefit.

 

[Cabius]

"Buy where you want to stay (in a Studio)"

vs

"Sleep Around (in a 1BR) Points"

 

[Tatebeck]

"Buy where you want to stay (in a Studio)"

vs

"Sleep Around (in a 1BR) Points"

True, but if you are trying to get value for your points, it would always come out ahead to buy where you want to stay and pay for a studio than always get a 1br with SAP

 

[Cabius]

True, but if you are trying to get value for your points, it would always come out ahead to buy where you want to stay and pay for a studio than always get a 1br with SAP

Yes, agreed.

I think in general there is a tension between "DVC is the cheapest way to vacation at Disney" vs "DVC is a way to pay for a better Disney vacation experience". The truth is, it's always a balance of both. You can vacation more cheaply off-site, and you can probably get a better experience at Four Seasons (unless you're paying for Cabins/Bungalows/GVs). It's really about getting the most bang for your buck, and we all draw our own points of diminishing return.

Some folks focus more on having an elevated vacation experience, such that while a 1BR is a bad value on a SF basis, it's how they want to spend their money. Maybe it would be cheaper for them to stay in a Studio, but they don't want to do that. And if you're in that bucket, availability will probably always be fairly decent, and SAP+ probably make good sense.

Lots of other folks really only want to stay in Studios in order to stretch their vacation dollars, and for them I'd always recommend owning where they want to stay. Because, as you say, that's how you get value for your points!

For my family, that means owning at PVB, which we adore, and sometimes switching to a 2BR elsewhere if we have a larger party or want more space. With the addition of our 6th child late last year, we'll have to either consistently get two studios, or upgrade to a 2BR anyway. Thankfully, the PVB point chart is so high that a 2BR at CCV or SSR ends up being about the price of two studios!

 

[Disney_escape]

I would heavily disagree. Everyone keeps reporting that in recent years 7 month availability has been getting worse and worse. Whether that's because of a lot of members trying to get cheap sleep around points, speculative renting, or the newer resorts having more strict resale restrictions, it really doesn't matter. Though it's probably a bit of each.

If you are fine spinning a roulette wheel each time you stay, are very flexible with dates, only want 1 bedrooms, etc it could work for you, but seemingly will get harder over time. I wouldn't buy the cheapest beach house with higher maintenance/upkeep costs in a neighborhood hoping to rent it out and then rent at a different house that I liked better just down the street each time. Way too much risk and work for only a slight potential benefit.

Agreed, If you have no preference where you end up staying, then of course the 'buy where you want to stay' is useless. But we have several home resorts because we like to stay at those resorts, and No they are not always available for the times of year and room type we want at the 7 months, and we have plenty of points for 1 bedrooms.

If you are buying strictly for cost vs hotel room and just being on campus - then yes price & dues are everything. But if specific locations/themes and times of year are important - the 'Buy where you want to stay' has many benefits.

 

[WinterSolider]

I would heavily disagree. Everyone keeps reporting that in recent years 7 month availability has been getting worse and worse. Whether that's because of a lot of members trying to get cheap sleep around points, speculative renting, or the newer resorts having more strict resale restrictions, it really doesn't matter. Though it's probably a bit of each.

If you are fine spinning a roulette wheel each time you stay, are very flexible with dates, only want 1 bedrooms, etc it could work for you, but seemingly will get harder over time. I wouldn't buy the cheapest beach house with higher maintenance/upkeep costs in a neighborhood hoping to rent it out and then rent at a different house that I liked better just down the street each time. Way too much risk and work for only a slight potential benefit.

My last trip I got FIVE standard view Poly studios for eight nights for the exact dates I wanted.

 

[WinterSolider]

You can vacation more cheaply off-site, and you can probably get a better experience at Four Seasons (unless you're paying for Cabins/Bungalows/GVs).

You get a better experience even staying at Disney. Poly cash is objectively a better experience than Poly points. At a bare minimum, the rooms are better maintained and will be cleaned daily.

 

[Tatebeck]

My last trip I got FIVE standard view Poly studios for eight nights for the exact dates I wanted.

Congrats! Due to the high point cost for studios and the fact that they have only studios, currently POLY studios aren't the hardest to book. Also some people are avoiding the construction. Try that again once the Poly Tower opens for a tower room. Or try it for BWV Standard View or Beach Club during a popular time and you will have worse results.

Again like I said you can find a place to stay, but often it will not be of your choosing exactly. You will be able to get into some resorts more often when they are due for a refurb or in the middle of a refurb for example. But that's because others chose not to stay there with their home points. That will rarely happen during popular times of the year, at popular resorts, or just after a new location opens or is refurbed.

If those trade offs are worth it to you, then go for it! But for many they will not be worth it

 

[BamaGuy44]

My last trip I got FIVE standard view Poly studios for eight nights for the exact dates I wanted.

Cool you picked the resort with the most studios by far. Now do BCV or CCV or BWV or Riviera studios or BLT studios. Riviera or BLT you might get a preferred view for crazy points. Standard view at those or BWV is basically never.

 

[WinterSolider]

Congrats! Due to the high point cost for studios and the fact that they have only studios, currently POLY studios aren't the hardest to book. Also some people are avoiding the construction. Try that again once the Poly Tower opens for a tower room. Or try it for BWV Standard View or Beach Club during a popular time and you will have worse results.

Again like I said you can find a place to stay, but often it will not be of your choosing exactly. You will be able to get into some resorts more often when they are due for a refurb or in the middle of a refurb for example. But that's because others chose not to stay there with their home points. That will rarely happen during popular times of the year, at popular resorts, or just after a new location opens or is refurbed.

If those trade offs are worth it to you, then go for it! But for many they will not be worth it

I just think you're describing a use case that doesn't apply to many people. Yes, if you only like Beach Club and you only travel during Food and Wine and you can only afford Studios, obviously you should buy Beach Club. Coincidentally, the only people I've ever talked to who are obsessed with Beach Club are the people who already own there.

But I think most people are way more flexible than that. Maybe they hate Bay Lake Tower but are happy anywhere else. Maybe they want a Studio when it's just Mom and Dad but a 1BR when the kids come and a 2BR when Grandma and Grandpa tag along. Maybe they'll go to Aulani once every 5 years. Maybe sometimes they need to plan a quick trip on short notice. Maybe they want to eventually stay at every resort at least once.

I just think there are WAY more people who like DVC for the variety DVC offers (resorts, dates, and unit size) than there are people who are hyper-specific about only ever wanting a certain resort for certain dates for a certain room type.

 

[Tatebeck]

I could argue just getting into ANY Epcot/HS area resort is tough. Being potentially locked out of one of the best areas (in my humble opinion) just to maybe save a few bucks and with extra hassle just isn't worth it

 

[Tatebeck]

I just think you're describing a use case that doesn't apply to many people. Yes, if you only like Beach Club and you only travel during Food and Wine and you can only afford Studios, obviously you should buy Beach Club. Coincidentally, the only people I've ever talked to who are obsessed with Beach Club are the people who already own there.

But I think most people are way more flexible than that. Maybe they hate Bay Lake Tower but are happy anywhere else. Maybe they want a Studio when it's just Mom and Dad but a 1BR when the kids come and a 2BR when Grandma and Grandpa tag along. Maybe they'll go to Aulani once every 5 years. Maybe sometimes they need to plan a quick trip on short notice. Maybe they want to eventually stay at every resort at least once.

I just think there are WAY more people who like DVC for the variety DVC offers (resorts, dates, and unit size) than there are people who are hyper-specific about only ever wanting a certain resort for certain dates for a certain room type.

ALSO strangely enough I feel like you just made the argument for why having multiple home resorts is better instead of a lump some of cheap points at one resort because that is the only way you are going to guarantee that you can achieve what you just said. You would PROBABLY to have some decent home resort priorities, or hope you are very lucky!

 

[BeachClub2014]

My last trip I got FIVE standard view Poly studios for eight nights for the exact dates I wanted.

......and did you get those FIVE standard view Poly studios for eight nights for your exact dates within the home resort booking window using Poly points or in the 7-month window using other points? Just curious.

 

[CastAStone]

Yes, agreed.

I think in general there is a tension between "DVC is the cheapest way to vacation at Disney" vs "DVC is a way to pay for a better Disney vacation experience". The truth is, it's always a balance of both. You can vacation more cheaply off-site, and you can probably get a better experience at Four Seasons (unless you're paying for Cabins/Bungalows/GVs). It's really about getting the most bang for your buck, and we all draw our own points of diminishing return.

Some folks focus more on having an elevated vacation experience, such that while a 1BR is a bad value on a SF basis, it's how they want to spend their money. Maybe it would be cheaper for them to stay in a Studio, but they don't want to do that. And if you're in that bucket, availability will probably always be fairly decent, and SAP+ probably make good sense.

Lots of other folks really only want to stay in Studios in order to stretch their vacation dollars, and for them I'd always recommend owning where they want to stay. Because, as you say, that's how you get value for your points!

For my family, that means owning at PVB, which we adore, and sometimes switching to a 2BR elsewhere if we have a larger party or want more space. With the addition of our 6th child late last year, we'll have to either consistently get two studios, or upgrade to a 2BR anyway. Thankfully, the PVB point chart is so high that a 2BR at CCV or SSR ends up being about the price of two studios!

Yep. DVC started to make much more sense for us when kid #3 came and studios / hotel rooms went out the window.

The only real alternatives were the All Star Music and AoA family suites.

 

[Sandisw]

I just think you're describing a use case that doesn't apply to many people. Yes, if you only like Beach Club and you only travel during Food and Wine and you can only afford Studios, obviously you should buy Beach Club. Coincidentally, the only people I've ever talked to who are obsessed with Beach Club are the people who already own there.

But I think most people are way more flexible than that. Maybe they hate Bay Lake Tower but are happy anywhere else. Maybe they want a Studio when it's just Mom and Dad but a 1BR when the kids come and a 2BR when Grandma and Grandpa tag along. Maybe they'll go to Aulani once every 5 years. Maybe sometimes they need to plan a quick trip on short notice. Maybe they want to eventually stay at every resort at least once.

I just think there are WAY more people who like DVC for the variety DVC offers (resorts, dates, and unit size) than there are people who are hyper-specific about only ever wanting a certain resort for certain dates for a certain room type.

Potentially, but DVC is just too expensive to go with the buy a resort simply because it’s cheaper to find out later you are disappointed that you struggle to get something you want and end up at a resort you don’t.

So, if you have a resort that you don’t mind being stuck at if trading doesn’t work, then buy that.

I think the pricing of the resale market, in part, supports that certain resorts are more popular than others

Things are changing and what I could easily get in trading when I first became a member in 2009 is now difficult..so much so, I sold and bought resorts I like to ensure we get what we want.

It comes down really to indivual situations but I just can’t say resort doesn’t matter.

In the end, when one can trade is not guaranteed…that 7 month trading window can be changed by DVC.

 

[Tatebeck]

Potentially, but DVC is just too expensive to go with the buy a resort simply because it’s cheaper to find out later you are disappointed that you struggle to get something you want and end up at a resort you don’t.

So, if you have a resort that you don’t mind being stuck at if trading doesn’t work, then buy that.

I think the pricing of the resale market, in part, supports that certain resorts are more popular than others

Things are changing and what I could easily get in trading when I first became a member in 2009 is now difficult..so much so, I sold and bought resorts I like to ensure we get what we want.

It comes down really to indivual situations but I just can’t say resort doesn’t matter.

In the end, when one can trade is not guaranteed…that 7 month trading window can be changed by DVC.

Yeah that would be the best reason of all to prevent putting all your eggs in one cheap basket

 

[SpicyMcHaggis]

The OKW points are definitely alluring from an initial buy-in perspective, but as others have said I don't see myself yearning to stay there year after year. So, while I'm waiting until closer to the end of June to see if any poly news comes out and potentially take advantage of the 10 day rescission period to see what happens for summer incentives, if I do go direct it will end up being at RIV primarily because that's where I'd rather be.

 

[WDWFERN]

For us, it has been really important to have some direct points at RIV, which is our favorite resort. That said I’m still strongly wavering about our next add on being at OKW in large part because we don’t mind at all doing split stays and often really enjoy getting to experience two different resorts during a 7 to 8 day vacation.

That also opens up a lot of flexibility for us at the seven month mark as it is much easier to get three days together in a studio or one bedroom then it would be to get a whole week. Also, we tend to like having a one bedroom given that our daughters are older now and having a kitchen and washing machine in the room is a huge plus as well. Since one bedrooms can be the easiest to book at the seven month month mark this likely works in our favor as well

Because we don’t mind changing rooms for a split stay, would be very happy with any of six or seven resorts and would only need a three day to four day block of those, and are usually happy with a 1BR, were really leaning towards saving some initial money upfront.

So I think if you’re someone who doesn’t mind doing split stays, having a combination of direct points at your favorite resort, as well as some less expensive SAP can potentially work pretty well. This is especially true if you have another handful of resorts, you’d be happy doing a 3 to 4 day segment of your trip at or frequently stay in a 1BR.

 

[Tatebeck]

For us, it has been really important to have some direct points at RIV, which is our favorite resort. That said I’m still strongly wavering about our next add on being at OKW in large part because we don’t mind at all doing split stays and often really enjoy getting to experience two different resorts during a 7 to 8 day vacation.

That also opens up a lot of flexibility for us at the seven month mark as it is much easier to get three days together in a studio or one bedroom then it would be to get a whole week. Also, we tend to like having a one bedroom given that our daughters are older now and having a kitchen and washing machine in the room is a huge plus as well. Since one bedrooms can be the easiest to book at the seven month month mark this likely works in our favor as well

Because we don’t mind changing rooms for a split stay, would be very happy with any of six or seven resorts and would only need a three day to four day block of those, and are usually happy with a 1BR, were really leaning towards saving some initial money upfront.

So I think if you’re someone who doesn’t mind doing split stays, having a combination of direct points at your favorite resort, as well as some less expensive SAP can potentially work pretty well. This is especially true if you have another handful of resorts, you’d be happy doing a 3 to 4 day segment of your trip at or frequently stay in a 1BR.

If your RIV is direct and you already have member benefits you could also pick up some cheaper RIV resale points to use only at RIV then use your direct points for any split stays or longer trips at RIV if needed. If you wanted to avoid the OKW risk

 

[WDWFERN]

If your RIV is direct and you already have member benefits you could also pick up some cheaper RIV resale points to use only at RIV then use your direct points for any split stays or longer trips at RIV if needed. If you wanted to avoid the OKW risk

We could go with Riviera resale, and our family has talked about it a lot, but in the end, the current promotion at old Key West with two 150 point contracts is not much different than resale Riviera. And in the long run gives us a lot more flexibility, especially if we like a variety of resorts at that seven month mark. Now that our kids are older we’re also fine having some trips at old Key West because the girls would like taking the boat to Disney Springs.