Booking Flight Advice - Christmas to New Years

[ZeonStar]

Hey all.

I have not posted in many years so hello! I'm sure a lot has changed in my life since I last posted.

So my wife of 10 years now and our 2 children are planning our first ever family Disney World Trip in December. I have been before, about 15 years ago, but my wife and 2 kids have never been. We're veterans of Disneyland but not Disney World, of course.

Due to when our kids are on Winter Break, Our trip is going to be from December 26th to January 5.

12/26 Travel day, 12/27-12/30 Park Days, 12/31 Rest day (No Parks), 1/1-1/4 Park days, 1/5. Travel Home Day. So 8 park days total. We don't plan to Park Hop.

It's fallen on me to handle most of the research for the trip. Between hotel costs, tickets, etc, The one pricing thing that I am really shocked by is Airfare so I was hoping to get some advice for when is the best time to book. I can't help wonder if I am just looking too far out? Or is it just due to the time we're going and the prices really won't change? We're talking $3 to $4k total for the 4 of us. Yikes.

We'll be flying out of SFO.
Wife would prefer Non-stop but maybe if costs are significant we may consider a 1 stop flight.
Not ideal, but leaving Christmas Night Late could be an option.
We're open to any airline.
Our trip/travel days are set due to our kids school schedule.


Thanks for any advice.

 

[EACarlson]

I'm seeing as low as $1600 total on Southwest out of SFO. Same price out of SJC, OAK is a little higher. If you are insisting on United, it's going to be higher because SFO is a United hub. I'm seeing $700 pp on Delta out of SJC and $900 out of SFO. You're also dead set on travelling on one of the busiest travel days out of MCO, that Sunday after New Years. If demand is weak, prices will come down, if demand is strong, it's only going to go up.

 

[ZeonStar]

I'm seeing as low as $1600 total on Southwest out of SFO. Same price out of SJC, OAK is a little higher. If you are insisting on United, it's going to be higher because SFO is a United hub. I'm seeing $700 pp on Delta out of SJC and $900 out of SFO. You're also dead set on travelling on one of the busiest travel days out of MCO, that Sunday after New Years. If demand is weak, prices will come down, if demand is strong, it's only going to go up.

Thank you for the info, appreciate it.

We're definitely not set on United. I don't think I even mentioned them in my post. Southwest could definitely be a money saving option, if my wife is open to a 1 stop or so flight. But I'll definitely do some budgeting than includes them.

As I mentioned there is a reason, we are going the days we are. Can't really control when the kids get Winter Break and if we change travel days, we have less days than we want at the parks.

What about when to book? Is it too soon? Or are prices just going to get worse?

Thank you again!

 

[sponica]

Thank you for the info, appreciate it.

We're definitely not set on United. I don't think I even mentioned them in my post. Southwest could definitely be a money saving option, if my wife is open to a 1 stop or so flight. But I'll definitely do some budgeting than includes them.

As I mentioned there is a reason, we are going the days we are. Can't really control when the kids get Winter Break and if we change travel days, we have less days than we want at the parks.

What about when to book? Is it too soon? Or are prices just going to get worse?

Thank you again!

I'm not sure if it's feasible with your origin airport, but can you actually price out the 25th? I've had relatives take the last flight out on the 25th because it's significantly cheaper.

 

[dcassetta]

I assume you are not planning on renting a car. But, if you are you might look at Tampa, sometimes the fares are much lower than MCO.

 

[disny_luvr]

Do you have any wiggle room with your travel days? We are traveling from Baltimore to San Francisco and then from San Diego to Baltimore this summer and it was hundreds of dollars cheaper for us to fly Tues-Tues. For example, our flight to SF was $174. If we were to fly on Monday or Sunday it was well over $350, one day even pushing closer to $400. Flying Tues-Tues is not ideal but we are making it work to save a lot of money.

 

[ZeonStar]

I'm not sure if it's feasible with your origin airport, but can you actually price out the 25th? I've had relatives take the last flight out on the 25th because it's significantly cheaper.

Yes! I was actually looking into that last night and took down some numbers that were definitely lower. But yeah we could possibly travel on Christmas, like later in the day/evening that carries us over into the next day.

 

[ZeonStar]

Do you have any wiggle room with your travel days? We are traveling from Baltimore to San Francisco and then from San Diego to Baltimore this summer and it was hundreds of dollars cheaper for us to fly Tues-Tues. For example, our flight to SF was $174. If we were to fly on Monday or Sunday it was well over $350, one day even pushing closer to $400. Flying Tues-Tues is not ideal but we are making it work to save a lot of money.

We could travel Christmas evening or the 26th having thought about it more. Far as the way home goes though, the 5th is our only option.

 

[EACarlson]

Thank you for the info, appreciate it.

We're definitely not set on United. I don't think I even mentioned them in my post. Southwest could definitely be a money saving option, if my wife is open to a 1 stop or so flight. But I'll definitely do some budgeting than includes them.

As I mentioned there is a reason, we are going the days we are. Can't really control when the kids get Winter Break and if we change travel days, we have less days than we want at the parks.

What about when to book? Is it too soon? Or are prices just going to get worse?

Thank you again!

I assumed United since they are the largest operator at SFO and one of two that has non-stops to MCO. Alaska being the other. To me, if it's a choice between $900+ for a non stop or less than $400 for a one stop, I'll take the one stop every time.
I don't think it's too early to book, it's possible that prices go down some, but it's also possible that prices only go up. I certainly wouldn't expect those SW prices to stay that low.

 

[Lewisc]

Airlines have a number of fare buckets. If you price 4 pax you'll get the lowest bucket, which has 4 seats available for purchase. Pricing each pax separately might result in some pax paying less then others.
Price flights for one pax. Switch to 4 when you book. Book if the fare stays the same. Reduce the # of pax to 3,2 or 1 until you get then price you saw for 1. Same procedure to book the rest of your group.

 

[chicagodisneyguy]

The seat maps for all the nonstops TO Orlando look pretty much empty. That doesn't meant that maybe some seats are purchased, but unassigned....but I think very few people have bought tickets on these flights. I would log into Google and set a flight alert for your dates....Google will email you when the flight prices move. If it was me I wouldn't pay these current prices this far out.

I'd also look at possibly booking each leg as a one way. Currently the nonstops SFO-MCO are $549 to $784. But the return MCO-SFO on 1/5 start at $289. If I was in your shoes I'd prob book the 8am nonstop home now and then watch the flights to Orlando. And if you book flights one way and the price goes down, you should be able to get a credit....which can then be put towards the flight TO Orlando.

 

[_19disnA]

Flights around major holidays tend to book up quickly. If you wait for an unlikely 'sale' to be offered, you may find that the best flights (i.e. non-stops or travel at most desirable times) are already gone. I can recall traveling on Christmas day (since our family get togethers were always on Christmas Eve) and that tended to be a slow day of air travel. Most have already gotten to their destination. Other days not so much as people might be arriving/departing. Check using one of those online flight travel sites to see what the current prices are and available options.

 

[ZeonStar]

I assumed United since they are the largest operator at SFO and one of two that has non-stops to MCO. Alaska being the other. To me, if it's a choice between $900+ for a non stop or less than $400 for a one stop, I'll take the one stop every time.
I don't think it's too early to book, it's possible that prices go down some, but it's also possible that prices only go up. I certainly wouldn't expect those SW prices to stay that low.

I wasn't sure how many airlines had direct flight so that's good info to know.

The non-stop thing is only for my wife, who hates to fly. Having to deal with changing plans, take-off and landing again isn't going to make things better. Still though, she does like saving money. So we'll need to weight our options.

I'm seeing as low as $1600 total on Southwest out of SFO.

Wanted to double back on this. Was $1600 for 4 people? Round trip? I tried to recreate the flight I coudn't find anything that low.

 

[ZeonStar]

Airlines have a number of fare buckets. If you price 4 pax you'll get the lowest bucket, which has 4 seats available for purchase. Pricing each pax separately might result in some pax paying less then others.
Price flights for one pax. Switch to 4 when you book. Book if the fare stays the same. Reduce the # of pax to 3,2 or 1 until you get then price you saw for 1. Same procedure to book the rest of your group.

Sorry I am not familar with the term "Pax." What does that mean?

 

[ZeonStar]

The seat maps for all the nonstops TO Orlando look pretty much empty. That doesn't meant that maybe some seats are purchased, but unassigned....but I think very few people have bought tickets on these flights. I would log into Google and set a flight alert for your dates....Google will email you when the flight prices move. If it was me I wouldn't pay these current prices this far out.

I'd also look at possibly booking each leg as a one way. Currently the nonstops SFO-MCO are $549 to $784. But the return MCO-SFO on 1/5 start at $289. If I was in your shoes I'd prob book the 8am nonstop home now and then watch the flights to Orlando. And if you book flights one way and the price goes down, you should be able to get a credit....which can then be put towards the flight TO Orlando.
View attachment 849489

Thank you for the idea of booking the flights to and from separately. I really like that idea. Though I think a 9am flight the day we are coming home would be a nightmare to make!

How does one setup alerts on Google? That's new to me?

Also, how do I track seat maps? That definitely seems like something I'd want to keep an eye on.

Thank you so much for the ideas/info. This is very helpful. I agree about waiting to buy, unless the risk suddenly changes where prices are going to get worse.

 

[chicagodisneyguy]

If you have a Gmail account, log in and search the flights. Above in my previous post that photo I posted....when you search you will see the "Track Prices" button...click that. Then anytime there's a decent price move you will get an email to your Gmail account. Super helpful and I use it for any flight I'm planning.

As far as seat maps, the easiest way is to start the booking process on a site (united.com or alaskairlines.com). The flights you are looking at should have a seat maps link somewhere on the booking page. It's not a perfect indicator of how many seats are taken....but pretty close.

 

[ZeonStar]

If you have a Gmail account, log in and search the flights. Above in my previous post that photo I posted....when you search you will see the "Track Prices" button...click that. Then anytime there's a decent price move you will get an email to your Gmail account. Super helpful and I use it for any flight I'm planning.

As far as seat maps, the easiest way is to start the booking process on a site (united.com or alaskairlines.com). The flights you are looking at should have a seat maps link somewhere on the booking page. It's not a perfect indicator of how many seats are taken....but pretty close.

Perfect, thank you. I'm going to use that google flights and track a few flight options. Thank you.

 

[_19disnA]

I think it's a typo.....pax probably is meant to be 'passenger'.

I am not sure of the value of trying to 'track' seat maps. On airlines with assigned seats, you generally pick your seats when making the reservation. Some seats are an upcharge on most airlines.

To avoid confusion, a 'direct' flight is one that doesn't require a change of aircraft even if it involves a stop. That is not the same thing as a 'non-stop' flight which goes from your departure city to your destination without any stops along the way.

I found some lower prices using 12/25 as your departure date. Typically, you need to adjust the dates and see what the different prices might be. Southwest flights don't tend to show up on these search sites, be sure to check out their website for what the prices/choices might be.

 

[GreatAuntie]

"Thank you for the idea of booking the flights to and from separately. I really like that idea. Though I think a 9am flight the day we are coming home would be a nightmare to make!"
I don't have advice on booking but do have a thought if you have an early flight out of MCO. Consider staying at a hotel at the airport. We did that for an early flight and it made the morning easy and unstressful. Just keep in mind how long the security lines will likely be.

 

[Lewisc]

Pax is an abbreviation for passenger.

Some airlines, some fare types might offer a credit if the fare goes. Rarely offered on basic economy fares. The Covid waivers are gone. A PP gave the impression they are more common then they are.

You can spend 3000-4000 for optimum non stop flights. You can spend 1600 if you're willing to accept connecting flights, with not so great connections.