Edited to add: and no way would we have ever booked a 1BR or larger with just the 4 of us, on a cash reservation. While we certainly could afford it, it just didn't feel like value for us - not sure why that is.
And this is largely my point about DVC. By nature of the DVC design (a huge revenue generating apparatus), buying in will change your WDW travel patterns. I'm not saying it's a bad change, but you do end up buying way more Mouse than you have in the past.
Whenever a new thread pops up about "saving" or "breaking even" I'm not intentionally being obtuse about people wanting to know when the equivalent stay over time will equal the money they put in, it's a matter of: What is the equivalent? And What do you use to measure DVC costs against?
Like most others, my belief is that it should be a measure of costs "with DVC" vs. "without DVC." Where I split with others who have posted to these kinds of threads is that the "without DVC" factor should be reflective of your past purchases that show a DVC like pattern of consumption, or a trend towards that. Because this is a true reflection of your spending habits before the influence of DVC changes you.
To me thinking about breaking even is more akin to going shopping because there is a big sale and then looking at the bottom of the receipt to see how much money I “saved.” I know I didn’t really “save” any money and instead the shopping trip cost me money.
This was never my point about the savings. As those grocery savings are real savings over buying the same item which you would've purchased anyway and have shown a history of purchasing.
I would rather use the analogy of a crack dealer who sells in bulk.
It costs more to buy 8 oz of crack up front than than several eight balls every week, but as an addict, that definitely save me money. By my estimates, 50% because I buy crack regularly anyway! Plus the guy makes it so easy, delivering to my house regularly. Bro-hugging me every time he sees me. In fact, I'm thinking about doubling my order when I have enough money. There are even crack parties I can attend if I join. Free crack! I just have to pay for the Uber to get there.
If a crack addict asked me if they should buy in, I would be all, "Definitely. I'll refer you. I get a bonus." Their addiction is a good match for the bulk purchase.
If someone who dabbles occasionally (because that's how crack works) and enjoys it and wants to join, on paper, you can work out the math of how much, if they were to save buying in bulk over buying the same amount spread over the commitment, but the truth is they'll end up buying more because by the nature of crack, it feeds your desire to have more of it and the dealer makes it so readily available.
I use this analogy not to disparage Disney. I love that I bought in. I would love to get more points. I love the time I've spent there the last three years with my family and look forward to the years to come. But I'm honest about this relationship. As much as I get out of it, DVD is in the business of making money. Most owners won't be saving money over what they would normally do without DVC.
The exercise of calculating cost break-even is an academic one. We all have the spreadsheets with formulas that calculate for rising costs, opportunity costs, etc., built into it. But every single one assumes we would, without the influence of DVC, go to Disney every year for the next 25-50. That seems like a faulty premise which compromises the whole thought exercise. Does it make us feel better about buying in? Maybe. But like all things Disney, it's the magic of illusions.
Well this thread turned out just how I thought. I wasn’t asking because I was trying to determine if I can afford DVC. I can.
As soon as you post a thread on the forum it becomes a piece of public information. In no way was I insinuating that you, personally, couldn't afford DVC, only that anyone else reading this should think about the TRUE cost over time. Someone who's thinking about buying will happen upon this thread and as a community, we have a responsibility to dispel what we see as misinformation, just as others will counterpoint my assertions here. Telling people they can calculate breakeven by doing x calculations
without taking into account their personal travel history is misleading.