CDC Notifies States, Large Cities To Prepare For Vaccine Distribution As Soon As Late October

[okeydokey]

Allow me to define then: there will be virtually no diagnosed cases by next fall.

Absolutely not true. Not even close. Let’s stick a pin in it and cycle back around in October.

 

[Jonfw2]

Absolutely not true. Not even close. Let’s stick a pin in it and cycle back around in October.

Deal.

 

[jlwhitney]

Absolutely not true. Not even close. Let’s stick a pin in it and cycle back around in October.

By next fall, if not sooner, I really don't expect there to be much talk of covid, sure there will be some cases like other diseases but nothing like now. Once the people highest risk for hospilization and death has happened those numbers will start to drop and people will start to move on and we also won't be testing like we are now and finding all these asymptomatic/mild cases.

 

[Farro]

By next fall, if not sooner, I really don't expect there to be much talk of covid, sure there will be some cases like other diseases but nothing like now. Once the people highest risk for hospilization and death has happened those numbers will start to drop and people will start to move on and we also won't be testing like we are now and finding all these asymptomatic/mild cases.

Yes, eventually the news will stop reporting on the daily cases and deaths, then just as fast it will fall out of people's minds.

 

[mefordis]

I’m not arguing that’s going to be the outcome. I’m just saying if it were, we’re no longer going to even bother talking about it as Covid anymore.

My base case is still that it will be essentially eradicated by next fall.

So you don't believe there will be annual vaccines for Covid19?

 

[DebbieB]

So you don't believe there will be annual vaccines for Covid19?

My guess is it will be in the annual flu shot, just like H1N1 is.

 

[Jonfw2]

So you don't believe there will be annual vaccines for Covid19?

i don’t know. It’s very possible but aside from my “eradication” prediction, we still don’t know how long the immunity will last.

Again: at 95% efficacy, this isn’t the flu vaccine.

 

[Jonfw2]

The NBA and its union are discussing a vaccine requirement for players and staff once it’s available.

If it’s not made mandatory, players who choose not to get it will have additional requirements like more testing, masks on the bench, and quarantining on the road.

 

[RamblingMad]

Just heard a GM chess player say that he plans to limit his travel as he expects COVID to be around for a while. It's interesting hearing different perspectives.

 

[DeniseJH]

Anyone have any idea how long it'll take them to determine how long immunity with the vaccine will last?

 

[DLgal]

Anyone have any idea how long it'll take them to determine how long immunity with the vaccine will last?

Most of the trials are 2 years long. I assume they expect the immunity to last somewhere less than that amount of time.

It will take as long as it takes for the vaccinated group to start losing antibodies or starts getting infected, I guess.

 

[DeniseJH]

Most of the trials are 2 years long. I assume they expect the immunity to last somewhere less than that amount of time.

It will take as long as it takes for the vaccinated group to start losing antibodies or starts getting infected, I guess.

Not really sure why you responded with this, or is there something to this response that I'm missing? Maybe a sarcasm?

 

[DLgal]

Not really sure why you responded with this, or is there something to this response that I'm missing? Maybe a sarcasm?

I was being completely serious. You asked if anyone knows how long it will take. Even the scientists don't know how long the vaccine immunity will last. That is why the trial is multi years long. It could take 6 months for immunity to wane. It could last 2 years. NO ONE knows yet. It will literally take as long as it will take.

 

[Jonfw2]

Denise, that answer is just about exactly right. Nobody really knows how long immunity will last.

 

[godisney14]

So you don't believe there will be annual vaccines for Covid19?

i don’t know. It’s very possible but aside from my “eradication” prediction, we still don’t know how long the immunity will last.

Again: at 95% efficacy, this isn’t the flu vaccine.

The flu vaccine is less effective because there are just too many strains out there and vaccine manufacturers can just choose 2 from subtype A and two from B (none from C), and the strains continue to mutate little by little during flu season.
The current COVID vaccines are more effective because there’s only few strains known circulating throughout the world with little evolutionary mutation so far. But, given time, it’s possible mutations could render vaccines less effective.

It’s possible that the COVID vaccine will need to be annual, and it’s possible it might not be. We just don’t know yet as not enough time has passed.
But, what we do know is that antibodies among people who were infected start to wane after some time. How much it wanes varies. Reports do show that more asymptomatic people and those with very mild symptoms tend to have lower levels.

All this saying, it isn’t safe enough for the public if people start to act normal like pre-COVID times just because they got the vaccine. Even if you got the vaccine, there’s still at least a 5% chance you’re one of the ones that it has no effect on.

 

[Jonfw2]

The flu vaccine is less effective because there are just too many strains out there and vaccine manufacturers can just choose 2 from subtype A and two from B (none from C), and the strains continue to mutate little by little during flu season.
The current COVID vaccines are more effective because there’s only few strains known circulating throughout the world with little evolutionary mutation so far. But, given time, it’s possible mutations could render vaccines less effective.

It’s possible that the COVID vaccine will need to be annual, and it’s possible it might not be. We just don’t know yet as not enough time has passed.
But, what we do know is that antibodies among people who were infected start to wane after some time. How much it wanes varies. Reports do show that more asymptomatic people and those with very mild symptoms tend to have lower levels.

All this saying, it isn’t safe enough for the public if people start to act normal like pre-COVID times just because they got the vaccine. Even if you got the vaccine, there’s still at least a 5% chance you’re one of the ones that it has no effect on.

it doesn’t have “no effect” on 5%. 5% had MINOR symptoms. Zero severe cases. Zero deaths. That is NOT “no effect”.

 

[godisney14]

it doesn’t have “no effect” on 5%. 5% had MINOR symptoms. Zero severe cases. Zero deaths. That is NOT “no effect”.

That is partially correct, and thanks for pointing that out in my comment. The efficacy is measured in preventing COVID symptoms. Some of these trials are measuring all symptoms and others more moderate/severe symptoms.

In the Pfizer trial, there were 41,135 participants who received both doses. From this cohort, preliminary results showed 170 COVID cases were recorded, of which 162 were from the placebo group and 8 from the vaccine group. Of these 170 cases, there were 10 severe cases: 9 from the placebo, and 1 from the vaccine group.
This may (or not, we’ll find out soon) be sufficient enough data to warrant an EUA in this landscape. But, a 0.4% positivity rate (and 0.02% severe case rate) among all trial participants is quite low compared to the case rates in the general US population. This is because we only have preliminary results. Full trial results will be made available when the usual timeframe for phase 3 trials have passed—in a couple years.

 

[Jonfw2]

That is partially correct, and thanks for pointing that out in my comment. The efficacy is measured in preventing COVID symptoms. Some of these trials are measuring all symptoms and others more moderate/severe symptoms.

In the Pfizer trial, there were 41,135 participants who received both doses. From this cohort, preliminary results showed 170 COVID cases were recorded, of which 162 were from the placebo group and 8 from the vaccine group. Of these 170 cases, there were 10 severe cases: 9 from the placebo, and 1 from the vaccine group.
This may (or not, we’ll find out soon) be sufficient enough data to warrant an EUA in this landscape. But, a 0.4% positivity rate (and 0.02% severe case rate) among all trial participants is quite low compared to the case rates in the general US population. This is because we only have preliminary results. Full trial results will be made available when the usual timeframe for phase 3 trials have passed—in a couple years.

it’s 100% correct as a correction to your very inaccurate comment that I quoted. Your claim was that the vaccine would have no effect on 5% of the people who take it. This is absolutely false.

 

[Colleen27]

Anyone have any idea how long it'll take them to determine how long immunity with the vaccine will last?

The only way to learn how long immunity lasts is with the passage of time, so the longer we have no answer to that question, the better the eventual answer is for us. That goes for both natural and vaccine-triggered immunity. We'll only know when it becomes clear that a statistically significant number of people who were once immune no longer are.

 

[DeniseJH]

Denise, that answer is just about exactly right. Nobody really knows how long immunity will last.

But haven't people gotten the virus twice? Wouldn't that indicate that immunity doesn't last years? Is immunity from a vaccine stronger than naturally acquired immunity?