Coronavirus will become insignificant in a month

[China Expat]

I don;t expect any sign of normalcy until February 2021. My son's company, Apple, said all who can will work remotely until then.

 

[monsterkitty]

Actually it will be insignificant in a month. Already, the data is disappearing, so if there is no information about it - does it exist?

Exactly!

 

[I_love_Cruising]

I don't agree with that fully. We are seeing hotspots, like Lisbon, Leicester, in Spain and in Germany. In Eastern Europe there are some countries where the situation gets worse, like Bulgaria, but I wouldn't say that for the entire continent it is going bad with rising numbers. It is more on local level than full countries.
That countries like Belgium implement obligatory masks in all public indoor spaces is more to prevent a second wave, not that they are already in it.

In NL we only get weekly figures since 2 weeks, yes 100 more infections than last week, but deaths went down from 19 to 8 and we are down to 18 Covid Patients in the ICU.

I never said the whole continent was going bad with rising numbers. I never even said that the second wave will be on the same level as the first one. I just observed that many countries that experienced lower numbers, had a second wave.

Countries that first got their numbers lower were the first ones that spiked again, and not only in Europe, this is a worldwide phenomenon. China was the first to get it under control and it was the first to report of a second wave.

 

[mnrose]

I need to double check who posts something before I even click on it.

 

[mnrose]

Actually it will be insignificant in a month. Already, the data is disappearing, so if there is no information about it - does it exist?

Those pesky dead bodies are harder to hide. Although we won't know why they died. Had some sort of cough, and a fever, and then died. But, not covid. No data for that.

 

[okeydokey]

Setting a reminder for for August 16.

 

[tarheelmjfan]

yes-this is a concern. there was a young man on the news the other evening who had covid a few months ago-symptomatic and a positive test, seemingly recovered. over july 4th weekend he started feeling symptomatic again so he was retested-positive. an english study that followed 65 covid positive patients for 90 days found a dramatic drop off in antibodies after a month including almost imperceptible levels. other studies have found that mild cases have lower antibody counts than more severe cases so what does that say about asymptomatic cases?

this isn't going to be a one and done virus for people, they will be able to be reinfected and infect others repeatedly unless/until an effective vaccine is developed.

My DH has a coworker who has had Covid-19 twice. She's on leave again & worried about her job.

 

[Monykalyn]

I am a mathematician. Earlier this year, I calculated that at least 3 million people will be dead from the coronavirus by the end of 2020, based on the death rate of 3.4% by the WHO

The virus doesn't affect all age groups equally nor is 100% of the population susceptible. As a "mathematician" but NOT infectious disease expert I wish every tom, dick and sally "mathematician would just stop with the useless and attentions seeking "calculations"

Nope. Not going to happen when some of the states surging are doing absolutely nothing to control it.

If the CDC's estimate of 10 unknown infections for every known holds true, Florida is experiencing 100,000+ new cases a day. It does seem at that rate there will be a loss of potential hosts to infect in a one to two month period.

Yeah this-eventually there will be enough of the susceptible population (gone-dead) or immune that the virus won't find available hosts. The goal is to minimize the "gone" susceptible population.

That assumes that the antibodies against COVID last long enough.

Yes but antibodies aren't the only line of defense either for longer term immunity. Listen to REAL experts in immunology not the local ER doc who's "maybe" seen a reinfection case-or maybe tests were inaccurate as well. And going by symptoms is NOT 100% fool proof either. A few reinfection cases-if accurate-doesn't mean that will be the norm either. REmember media is making you hyper aware of this virus so OF COURSE everything is blown waaayyyy up with every yahoo getting his 5 seconds of "fame" with a quote/anecdote/WAG.

An entire new disease vector among a population that has largely been protected so far

Or- there is a possibility based on science, other countries experiences and the way this particular virus acts which is NOT like other viruses kids are just. not. as. susceptible. See how other countries who opened elementary schools haven't had issues with kids spreading or even getting the virus from other kids. There are reputable experts who have looked into this, looked at research on how the virus works and childrens physiology and the probable why kids aren't as at risk. The recent Osterholm update discussed this as well. It doesn't mean there is NO risk, but definitely lower for kids.

 

[momz]

Yes but antibodies aren't the only line of defense either for longer term immunity. Listen to REAL experts in immunology not the local ER doc who's "maybe" seen a reinfection case-or maybe tests were inaccurate as well. And going by symptoms is NOT 100% fool proof either. A few reinfection cases-if accurate-doesn't mean that will be the norm either.

You have me curious. What other lines of defense are you referring to? Antibodies are the “memory” of the immune system. If your immune system has no memory of a virus, it will not recognize it when it invades.

 

[Forevermarypoppins]

In years to come, the after affects of Covid will show up in those who were infected.
Reminder that some viruses never leave your system, they lay dormant.
And people think going to a Covid party to get it, have immunity, blah blah is a good idea.
Dumb, stupid, call what you will.

 

[jlwhitney]

That assumes that the antibodies against COVID last long enough.

but we won’t be going back to a time of 100% vulnerable . They have already said that even with out antibodies a second infection may not Happen or may be milder since it wont be novel to that person. Time will tell but it is going to get better.

 

[jlwhitney]

yes-this is a concern. there was a young man on the news the other evening who had covid a few months ago-symptomatic and a positive test, seemingly recovered. over july 4th weekend he started feeling symptomatic again so he was retested-positive. an english study that followed 65 covid positive patients for 90 days found a dramatic drop off in antibodies after a month including almost imperceptible levels. other studies have found that mild cases have lower antibody counts than more severe cases so what does that say about asymptomatic cases?

this isn't going to be a one and done virus for people, they will be able to be reinfected and infect others repeatedly unless/until an effective vaccine is developed.

A vaccine isn’t going to make it disappear it’s just gonna be come another illness that is floating around. Only one human diesease has ever been successfully eradicated

 

[mikehn]

It was already insignificant for me about a month ago.

 

[kaytieeldr]

Actually it will be insignificant in a month. Already, the data is disappearing, so if there is no information about it - does it exist?

You say this, and all I can picture is the virus cycling down to nothing like the alien signal in Independence Day - only to explode into worldwide devastation.

 

[tarheelmjfan]

It was already insignificant for me about a month ago.

What's your long term, magical cure? We'd all love to have that info.

 

[Dan Murphy]

If you look at any chart of countries or states that has had a surge of covid, such as New York, Italy, or Sweden, you will notice that their surge (bump on the curve) lasts no more than 2 months, counting from the beginning of the wave to the end. In fact, Sweden, the country that never locked down, had only a one-month-long bump. Once the bump is over, no country or state has had a second surge.

So right now, the US has being going sharply up for a month. That means we are at the top of the curve and should be heading downward soon, and by the middle to end of August, cases will have fallen to before surge levels. Schools will be able to open on time.

Most importantly, Disney World needs to hang tight for month. Then they will be able to resume normal capacity and operations.

I am a mathematician. Earlier this year, I calculated that at least 3 million people will be dead from the coronavirus by the end of 2020, based on the death rate of 3.4% by the WHO. I told DH that 50 people he knows will be dead from covid by the end of the year (assuming he doesn't die first). Recently, however, the US CDC has stated that the death rate is actually 0.26%. That is a huge reduction and tremendous news. I just asked DH if he knows anybody dead from covid yet? He says he doesn’t even know anyone who is sick from covid.

And the Skyliner reopened yesterday! Almost nobody is riding it, but at least it’s open. Too bad I won’t be able to ride it. I might never go to Disney World or Disneyland again -- I want to die at home. But if things get back to normal, I might brave it.

Is all that based on WDW opening but nobody going, or, WDW opening and everybody going and making it stay open?

https://www.disboards.com/threads/c...t-go-to-disney-world-when-it-reopens.3801164/
https://www.disboards.com/threads/disney-world-needs-to-reopen-and-stay-open.3806659/

 

[DLgal]

You have me curious. What other lines of defense are you referring to? Antibodies are the “memory” of the immune system. If your immune system has no memory of a virus, it will not recognize it when it invades.

T cells. B cells. Natural killer cells. There are 2 immune systems, innate and adaptive. Antibodies are just one part of the adaptive immune system. The first line of defense are T cells and Natural Killer cells that go after invaders initially, particularly viral invaders.

The people who were "asymptomatic" showed little or no antibodies, BUT they largely showed specific T cell responses to Sars-CoV2, which shows that their innate immune system took care of the virus (likely while it was only in the nasopharyngeal space) before the adaptive immune system needed to kick in and generate antibodies.

The immune system is quite complex and there are several different kinds of cells responsible for different aspects of it.

If someone cleared the virus with just the innate immune system, there would be no antibodies to show for it, but they are likely not going to be susceptible to the virus again if they already fought it off successfully once. The innate immune system also has a memory.

 

[cobright]

If you look at any chart of countries or states that has had a surge of covid, such as New York, Italy, or Sweden, you will notice that their surge (bump on the curve) lasts no more than 2 months, counting from the beginning of the wave to the end. In fact, Sweden, the country that never locked down, had only a one-month-long bump. Once the bump is over, no country or state has had a second surge.

So right now, the US has being going sharply up for a month. That means we are at the top of the curve and should be heading downward soon, and by the middle to end of August, cases will have fallen to before surge levels. Schools will be able to open on time.

Those other countries also locked down much sooner and more effectively than the US did, well Sweden didn't and then had 3 solid months of 500(ish) or more new cases a day and a staggering kill count that's even higher than the US (controlled for population size).

We don't get the same Corona chart as New Zealand, because as a voting body we lacked the courage to protect our people like New Zealand did. Even knowing what works (Finland) and what doesn't (Sweden, Brazil) we still lack the moral will to put our citizens lives first.

 

[cobright]

A vaccine isn’t going to make it disappear it’s just gonna be come another illness that is floating around. Only one human diesease has ever been successfully eradicated

Globally, just Small Pox.
In the US, Polio, Rubella, Measles (declared eliminated in US in 2000). There's a whole list of infectious disease that we have the technology but not the will to eradicate.

 

[barkley]

In years to come, the after affects of Covid will show up in those who were infected.
Reminder that some viruses never leave your system, they lay dormant.

i wonder about this.

i've already read of studies done on the initial cruise ship passengers and the lung damage in those who were found to be covid positive yet presented entirely asymptomatic. i wonder if, like one of my siblings who survived full blown polio with seemingly no aftereffects until he hit his 60's and began to experience post polio syndrome-there will be some form of post covid syndrome decades from now that will take it's toll on those who escape it's wrath now.

Measles (declared eliminated in US in 2000).

my state (washington) declared a state of emergency in 2019 due to measles outbreaks. there may be effective immunizations but so long as some choose not to immunize against it (vs. those who are unable to) catch and spread it-it is not eliminated in the u.s.