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Crowd Outlook

The "might" language "might" have just been leftover from when they restarted AP sales the first time and they sold out instantly. Maybe no one changed the warning message.

People love to pick apart and analyze everything Disney does even when it may mean nothing.

It would be great if they lowered prices and had lower crowds, and it may dip some, but while the company might notice a 5% dip in attendance impacting revenue, if you are walking through MK it would seem just as crowded as ever.
 
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In the past did Disney ever limit annual pass sales? Are they selling out because they are only selling a limited amount? I'm assuming the population increase in Florida over the last few years has a lot to do with limiting them.
 
In the past did Disney ever limit annual pass sales? Are they selling out because they are only selling a limited amount? I'm assuming the population increase in Florida over the last few years has a lot to do with limiting them.
The only time annual pass sales were limited in Florida was when Disney stopped them selling because of the pandemic. When the pandemic was easing up, it brought them back in a limited fashion and they sold out instantly.

As AP sales resumed, this time in full, some people speculated they would sell out because of pent-up demand. A lot of people's memories only reach back a couple of years. The fear of "missing out" on an AP also is a useful sales tool.

Only Disney knows if there is any limit to how many APs it will sell.

Disney has been selling APs for decades. While the population of Florida has grown substantially, it can raise the price or create limitations and black-out dates on the passes to keep the number it sells steady while increasing its revenue.
 


The only time annual pass sales were limited in Florida was when Disney stopped them selling because of the pandemic. When the pandemic was easing up, it brought them back in a limited fashion and they sold out instantly.

As AP sales resumed, this time in full, some people speculated they would sell out because of pent-up demand. A lot of people's memories only reach back a couple of years. The fear of "missing out" on an AP also is a useful sales tool.

Only Disney knows if there is any limit to how many APs it will sell.

Disney has been selling APs for decades. While the population of Florida has grown substantially, it can raise the price or create limitations and black-out dates on the passes to keep the number it sells steady while increasing its revenue.
It sounds like they are selling out because they are limiting supply. I’m sure Disney makes more money on people buying seperate tickets.
 
Like I said earlier I didn't doubt they would bring it back. I don't think it has anything to do with staffing. The timing tells me the forecast for bookings is looking soft for the new year as well.
Interesting related comments from the Starwood CEO today - he said the Hospitality sector's (hotels and restaurants) total employment is currently at 1M, in 2019 it was at 1.5M !! He said the industry currently is at least 350k short of workers. I would think this kind of deficit still has to be impacting Disney too some extent. An interesting watch:

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/06/...h-interest-rates.html?&qsearchterm=sternlicht
 
I think the downturn is already started. Here is a few reports from people at the parks yesterday.

"Im here now and cant believe how empty it is. There was literally not one person on millenium falcon at 7 pm last night. I havent seen anything like this since the last recession over a decade ago. You do not need genie at any park"

"Can confirm this. I know people who walked on to Rise last night more than an hour before park close.

The afternoon Tron lottery is lasting hours, not seconds. Same with Guardians."
This was true of the Guardians afternoon lottery about a month after it first opened, as well.

On one slightly rainy day in June of 2022 I snagged a spot in the afternoon lottery for Guardians 5 hours after it opened.
 


I’ll be there in August, had been debating between these two months and now I’m worried that I chose wrong. 😬

Well, our hottest temps every year are actually in September. But August will be warm, most likely. Next time, choose July if you can.
 

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