Crowd Outlook

[middlechild]

It makes his Disney hates Christians narrative seem like it has weight. We all know of all people in the world White Christians are the most marginalized

That is certainly one way to view the post.
Another way is to recognize that Harrison Ford brought a great deal of acting ability to make Indiana Jones his own. That merely substituting a brunette English actess while changing other parts of the casting while trying to use the same type of format to produce a 'new' Indiana Jones film protrays those that made that choice as ignoramuses. Taking that same actress and building a new story of success to augment and eventually take the place of Indiana as the archaelogy misfit would have two benefits. One, cost much less than 560M, and two, increased the audience size willing to pay to see the story. Of course 'Montana Maureen (yes, Disney, you have my permission to use the name ) would not have a ready audience like Indy Jones does, a greater risk but potentially greater reward.
I will admit many of the choices in Indy 5 were made at the start of the project five or more years ago. Would they make the same choices today? I don't believe they would, but that is in hindsight and having seen Star Wars 7 - 9 clearly demonstrate a simple substitution is a terrible strategy. TWDC has relied on the substitution method of movie-making for far too long, and audiences are tired of it, in my opinion.

 

[Obi-J Kenobi]

Why are you comparing the first day of one movie with the fifth day of another movie?

On its first day, Indy 5 brought in $23,682,998.

Yeah, 11M on Indy's fifth day isn't great, but it's still disingenuous to compare it with SoF's opening day.

I'm not defending the original poster's comments here, but his box office data points are correct, both day-to-day and opening date-to-opening date comparisons.

You have to understand that raw box office totals are not the primary data point. Sound of Freedom is only showing on 2,600 screens (+/-) and Indy 5 is showing on 4,600 screens (+/-), domestically speaking. The per theater average on opening day for Sound of Freedom was $5,400 (+/-) and the per theater average opening for Indy 5 was $5,100 (+/-).

Making movies is hard. Congrats to all those associated with Sound of Freedom, because it has an audience and it will be profitable.

 

[Brian Noble]

Coming back to the crowd/tourism outlook question:

Orange County (where most of WDW sits) saw tourism development tax revenues (the county hotel tax) this May down 6.7% YoY. In contrast, US travel spending was up 1.4% nationwide YoY overall in that same month.

I was surprised by the this. To me, it suggests that any slowdown is not likely to be entirely economically motivated, but has some other additional basis. One possible explanation is that revenge travel was concentrated among "popular' destinations (like Disney) and so it naturally would decline more than others when the revenge wave subsided. Another possible explanation is that some folks are avoiding Florida and/or Disney for various and opposing reasons.

 

[Brian Noble]

Looking at Thrill Data, this is not a Disney-specific phenomenon. WDW-wide average wait times dropped from 38 minutes in May '22 to 31 minutes in May '23. Universal average wait times had a similar drop, from 32 minutes to 28 minutes.

So, I don't think the change is because people are avoiding Disney in particular.

 

[Jrb1979]

Looking at Thrill Data, this is not a Disney-specific phenomenon. WDW-wide average wait times dropped from 38 minutes in May '22 to 31 minutes in May '23. Universal average wait times had a similar drop, from 32 minutes to 28 minutes.

So, I don't think the change is because people are avoiding Disney in particular.

While those 2 are down, SeaWorld has gone from from 12 minutes to 19 minutes. Cedar Point has gone from a 13 minute average last June to a 23 minute average this June.

IMO 2 things are happening, one is people are opting for my local parks and a lot of locals go to SeaWorld in Orlando. And IMO price is playing a big factor for Disney and Universal.

 

[Brian Noble]

That still doesn't explain why overall travel is up 1%. If it were only a shift from destination vacations to local ones, that would also suggest lower overall travel spending.

 

[Jrb1979]

That still doesn't explain why overall travel is up 1%. If it were only a shift from destination vacations to local ones, that would also suggest lower overall travel spending.

I still think price is playing a big part in why Disney and Universal is down. I think with all the price increases and the add-ons many are opting for other places now. I saw an article last week saying travel to Tampa area is up so far this year. I wouldn't be surprised if attendance lags for both Disney and Universal til Epic Universe opens. WDW has nothing major coming any time soon and neither does Universal

 

[Bibbidi_Boo]

While those 2 are down, SeaWorld has gone from from 12 minutes to 19 minutes. Cedar Point has gone from a 13 minute average last June to a 23 minute average this June.

IMO 2 things are happening, one is people are opting for my local parks and a lot of locals go to SeaWorld in Orlando. And IMO price is playing a big factor for Disney and Universal.

I disagree about people opting for local parks. Cedar point I don't fully count as a local park, it draws far more people in that say actual true local parks like kennywood, even kings island to a point and so on. Cedar point is well known for its coasters and people want to go there plus the area has a whole as more to do then just park so makes a nice vacation.

 

[rstevens333]

Another possible explanation is that some folks are avoiding Florida and/or Disney for various and opposing reasons.

I'm from the Northeast and I am an outlier amongst friends in that I am even willing to step foot in the state of Florida right now. So many people see the entire place as an ongoing hate crime due to Desantis. That's got to account for some of it. (Edited to note that I don't condone any of his garbage policies.)

Really wish the Orlando area were its own little city-state like the Vatican. I can't even bring up Disney to people around here without getting side eye.

 

[nancipants]

That is certainly one way to view the post.
Another way is to recognize that Harrison Ford brought a great deal of acting ability to make Indiana Jones his own. That merely substituting a brunette English actess while changing other parts of the casting while trying to use the same type of format to produce a 'new' Indiana Jones film protrays those that made that choice as ignoramuses. Taking that same actress and building a new story of success to augment and eventually take the place of Indiana as the archaelogy misfit would have two benefits. One, cost much less than 560M, and two, increased the audience size willing to pay to see the story. Of course 'Montana Maureen (yes, Disney, you have my permission to use the name ) would not have a ready audience like Indy Jones does, a greater risk but potentially greater reward.
I will admit many of the choices in Indy 5 were made at the start of the project five or more years ago. Would they make the same choices today? I don't believe they would, but that is in hindsight and having seen Star Wars 7 - 9 clearly demonstrate a simple substitution is a terrible strategy. TWDC has relied on the substitution method of movie-making for far too long, and audiences are tired of it, in my opinion.

… you know Harrison Ford still plays Indiana Jones in this movie, right? Or did you just get mad because YouTube videos told you to?

 

[kelleybean]

I'm from the Northeast and I am an outlier amongst friends in that I am even willing to step foot in the state of Florida right now.

I know it's anecdotal but I also know several people from other states who are avoiding Florida right now (such as not going to a conference in Orlando that would have attended if it were elsewhere) specifically because of some of the rhetoric from the governor and laws the state legislature has passed. I personally think it has impacted tourism numbers, even if it's just on the margins.

 

[Disney Bobby]

Coming back to the crowd/tourism outlook question:

Orange County (where most of WDW sits) saw tourism development tax revenues (the county hotel tax) this May down 6.7% YoY. In contrast, US travel spending was up 1.4% nationwide YoY overall in that same month.

I was surprised by the this. To me, it suggests that any slowdown is not likely to be entirely economically motivated, but has some other additional basis. One possible explanation is that revenge travel was concentrated among "popular' destinations (like Disney) and so it naturally would decline more than others when the revenge wave subsided. Another possible explanation is that some folks are avoiding Florida and/or Disney for various and opposing reasons.

Maybe I missed it in the link, but I didn't see where those numbers are adjusted for inflation. And airline prices have risen faster than inflation. So, it could very well be fewer people traveling at higher prices accounting for the 1.4% increase in spending. And fewer people would also explain why hotel tax is down. With the insane amount of inflation in the last year, spending YoY isn't really a great comparison. I would have thought spending would have increased far more than 1.4%.

 

[Suger Mag]

I know it's anecdotal but I also know several people from other states who are avoiding Florida right now (such as not going to a conference in Orlando that would have attended if it were elsewhere) specifically because of some of the rhetoric from the governor and laws the state legislature has passed. I personally think it has impacted tourism numbers, even if it's just on the margins.

I think that the effects of tourist avoidance is just starting, and will only get worse. Several conventions have cancelled their plans to come to Florida specifically because of recent legislation. if you consider that each con would likely bring a couple thousand of guests to hotels, restaurants etc. that is going to add up. This is way bigger than just WDW.

https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/more-organizations-cancel-conventions-in-orlando

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

That still doesn't explain why overall travel is up 1%. If it were only a shift from destination vacations to local ones, that would also suggest lower overall travel spending.

My guess is that Disney and Florida were "Open" during Covid which drew a lot of tourists, tourists who may have gone elsewhere but didn't feel like they had a choice. With Covid in the rear view my guess is that people are more willing to travel to parts of the country that were more restricted during Covid times for instance California.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

I still think price is playing a big part in why Disney and Universal is down. I think with all the price increases and the add-ons many are opting for other places now. I saw an article last week saying travel to Tampa area is up so far this year. I wouldn't be surprised if attendance lags for both Disney and Universal til Epic Universe opens. WDW has nothing major coming any time soon and neither does Universal

Tampa is a large retirement area, i think it's safe to assume the larger part of it's tourist population is of the elderly community, and suffice it to say that population wasn't moving freely around the country for a few years. it could explain why the numbers have spiked there

 

[Jrb1979]

Tampa is a large retirement area, i think it's safe to assume the larger part of it's tourist population is of the elderly community, and suffice it to say that population wasn't moving freely around the country for a few years. it could explain why the numbers have spiked there

It could be. I still think cost for Disney and Universal is a big reason why attendance is down this summer.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

It could be. I still think cost for Disney and Universal is a big reason why attendance is down this summer.

cost is hard to qualify in this situation, most things in the service sector have gone up substantially. It seems like people on this thread target Disney specifically because it obviously impacts them and their vacation plans directly.

Speaking in generalities here, but people spoke about Universal wiping the floor with Disney because of pricing not too long ago. Now because tourism is down, people lump Universal and Disney together for price gouging. it just seems like an argument of convenience

 

[Brian Noble]

my guess is that people are more willing to travel to parts of the country that were more restricted during Covid times for instance California.

Maybe, but maybe not. Disneyland wait time average is also down YoY. Not just a Disney thing; Knotts is down as well. USH is up, but that's at least partly because of Super Nintendo World; it opened mid-February, and you can see March and beyond with a big bump.

 

[Obi-J Kenobi]

Could the "lower" crowds be a result of locals feeling frustrated with WDW for whatever reason (cost, less benefits, no trams, weather, etc.) and electing not to attend parks?

I am not a Florida local, but I have to believe that locals constitute "butts in the seats" and "feet on the ground" too, sort of speak.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Maybe, but maybe not. Disneyland wait time average is also down YoY. Not just a Disney thing; Knotts is down as well. USH is up, but that's at least partly because of Super Nintendo World; it opened mid-February, and you can see March and beyond with a big bump.

could the nintendo bump have caused a slump around the other parks. i believe DL is primarily repeat visitors, so i am assuming that a major change in the market would be more disruptive then it happening in an area more dependent on tourists like WDW