crowd "predictor" question

[Praying Colonel]

we are going in may and november. i have a touring plans subscription. i looked at both their crowd calendar as well as kenny the pirates and their suggestions could not be more opposite on most days. where tp says best, ktp says it is the absolute worst and avoid.

i know these things are just created by humans and really is nothing but guesswork. we did follow ktp's suggestions this past december for best park and it was CROWDED in several of them. but when we left and went to another park that was not suggested it was okay.

generally i do not care about crowd calendars but we are taking my parents who are in their 70s and so i want to make this easier on them if possible

so while i get it that the idea is to go where you want to go when you want to go i am curious for those of you who have experience with tp how close they are on their guesses? they have mk as a low day on a saturday and that blows my mind.

I'm a long-time Touring Plans subscriber because I find their plans and their crowd calendars to be very helpful and pretty accurate overall. But ultimately I use the crowd calendar as just one factor in planning out our trips, and probably not an especially important factor.

 

[Heather07438]

Very VERY few people are going to be experienced enough to make even a decent guess. For example, when I was planning my first trip and asked people I knew who were frequent Disney visitors, I was told "January is slow" with more research I found out that yeah, it is...except for early (after New years, still winter break), and Marathon week/end, and around Martin Luther King Jr Day weekend.

Why isn't it easier (for most people) to rely on data driven predictions that take than into account? TP and KtP have offerings that bring value for the subscription price, so the crowd calendar is "free" if you're already making use of those tools. Will they be exactly correct? No, of course now. Will they be directionally/relationally correct? Absolutely.

Pooling knowledge is almost always useful, I'm happy to let someone else do it for me. Understanding, of course, that there's no crystal ball.

I guess we got burned too many times honestly. Our trips kept coinciding with, "Oops! look at this anomoly." Calendars said Jan 28-Feb 5th were 1's and 2's, got there and it was 7's & 8's. Same thing happened for our week before Labor Day trip. We went around Easter and it wasn't bad at all. Individual days have the same problems. If you follow them you'll notice obvious errors all the time.

Crowd Calendars worked better in the past. I think since both the age of Magic Bands and iPhones, crowds have drastically changed because WDW has the data to optimize crowd spreading, park hours and staff while smartphones/forums have people rethinking historic habits and planning much differently.

On a whim back in October while DH & I were planning a trip I decided to make a prediction for 1 week in Nov and wrote up the 7 days of 4 parks plus resort crowd level. Thought about Nov, days of the week and EMHs then plugged in my guesses for crowd levels and stuck it on our office wall. Totally forgot about it until after that week past and DH took it to compare against TP. For every predicted crowd level off, my chart and TP got a -1. We tied, exactly the same numbers off. Mind you, I forgot to consider the week I chose included Veteran's Day so my numbers would've won if I realized to pump those numbers up. And I just threw numbers on a sheet in under 5 minutes. We got a good laugh.

Your point is well taken that a crowd calendar would out perform most guests' guesses. But my point is more that it makes no sense for guests to revolve their entire trip around a crowd calendar. It will work out better for guests if they consider their personal needs/desires first and foremost. Changing things around because they conflict with less than accurate predictions doesn't work as well. It's fine to consult them for a vague outlook but I think it's to a trip's detriment to depend solely on them.

 

[Heather07438]

I'm a long-time Touring Plans subscriber because I find their plans and their crowd calendars to be very helpful and pretty accurate overall. But ultimately I use the crowd calendar as just one factor in planning out our trips, and probably not an especially important factor.

Me too! We will be renewing for the 6th 7th year this week.

TP has some resources that are fantastic for us. We love the resort room finder with view. Nobody else offers that. We love to plan our days using their plan generator. Plus that keeps a record of our past trips. The ADR finder has gotten us several great reservations. Their blog is fun, especially Sat 6

I don't mean to put them down. It's just funny how that sight leads with and is best known for the Exalted Crowd Calendar of Analytic Marvel but their other services are much more valuable to me.

 

[ISUamanda]

I guess we got burned too many times honestly. Our trips kept coinciding with, "Oops! look at this anomoly." Calendars said Jan 28-Feb 5th were 1's and 2's, got there and it was 7's & 8's. Same thing happened for our week before Labor Day trip. We went around Easter and it wasn't bad at all. Individual days have the same problems. If you follow them you'll notice obvious errors all the time.

Crowd Calendars worked better in the past. I think since both the age of Magic Bands and iPhones, crowds have drastically changed because WDW has the data to optimize crowd spreading, park hours and staff while smartphones/forums have people rethinking historic habits and planning much differently.

On a whim back in October while DH & I were planning a trip I decided to make a prediction for 1 week in Nov and wrote up the 7 days of 4 parks plus resort crowd level. Thought about Nov, days of the week and EMHs then plugged in my guesses for crowd levels and stuck it on our office wall. Totally forgot about it until after that week past and DH took it to compare against TP. For every predicted crowd level off, my chart and TP got a -1. We tied, exactly the same numbers off. Mind you, I forgot to consider the week I chose included Veteran's Day so my numbers would've won if I realized to pump those numbers up. And I just threw numbers on a sheet in under 5 minutes. We got a good laugh.

Your point is well taken that a crowd calendar would out perform most guests' guesses. But my point is more that it makes no sense for guests to revolve their entire trip around a crowd calendar. It will work out better for guests if they consider their personal needs/desires first and foremost. Changing things around because they conflict with less than accurate predictions doesn't work as well. It's fine to consult them for a vague outlook but I think it's to a trip's detriment to depend solely on them.

Totally fair. And completely agree that crowd predictions are just one component of planning.

TP does make a pretty big deal that if you have a decent TP and know how to work the FP system, the crowd predictions don't matter much.

 

[KyleAfterAWhile]

I appreciate all of the helpful thought and feedback.

Many of you gave me more to think about than just picking one. And those calendars driving crowds makes sense. They have the crowds for the week in May very low and it is when many schools are already out. So that also threw me off.

But how many people that visit Disney actually look at those calendars? If 30K people go to a single park on a day, I would think there is less than 5K of those people looking at planning tools in that detail.

I used Tour Guide Mike years ago before he got sick and stopped running that group. They were crazy accurate. I used EasyWDW for a few trips and found Josh's methodology the same as Mike's. But then we took a long sabbatical from Disney.

I guess where TP is concerned, I thought it was crazy that they suggested MK for both Monday and Saturday...two busiest days at that park for the last few years. It made me question how accurate that can be if they are pushing you to busy parks and giving it a 3 out of 10? I do like the other tools offered. Such as room requester and such. They also have a dining finder that can be helpful.

Where KTP is concerned, he is a bit of a know-it-all and defensive in the select replies....so that makes me question how and where he derives at his information. Seems if you are asked a question, instead of being curt and bothered, you would want to help people that you are asking to buy your product. ?? So does he use just a best guess? Does he have a methodology? Is he shaking a magic 8 ball or maybe reading from a mayo jar?

Also see sites like Dad, WDW Prep School and such. Seems they all use the same ideas EasyWDW used.... avoid EMH, no MK on Saturday and Monday, avoid DTD on weekends, etc. So how many of these sites are sticking with what Mike started?

Anyhow, lots of questions running through this old guys head today.

 

[evlaina]

I appreciate all of the helpful thought and feedback.

Many of you gave me more to think about than just picking one. And those calendars driving crowds makes sense. They have the crowds for the week in May very low and it is when many schools are already out. So that also threw me off.

But how many people that visit Disney actually look at those calendars? If 30K people go to a single park on a day, I would think there is less than 5K of those people looking at planning tools in that detail.

I used Tour Guide Mike years ago before he got sick and stopped running that group. They were crazy accurate. I used EasyWDW for a few trips and found Josh's methodology the same as Mike's. But then we took a long sabbatical from Disney.

I guess where TP is concerned, I thought it was crazy that they suggested MK for both Monday and Saturday...two busiest days at that park for the last few years. It made me question how accurate that can be if they are pushing you to busy parks and giving it a 3 out of 10? I do like the other tools offered. Such as room requester and such. They also have a dining finder that can be helpful.

Where KTP is concerned, he is a bit of a know-it-all and defensive in the select replies....so that makes me question how and where he derives at his information. Seems if you are asked a question, instead of being curt and bothered, you would want to help people that you are asking to buy your product. ?? So does he use just a best guess? Does he have a methodology? Is he shaking a magic 8 ball or maybe reading from a mayo jar?

Also see sites like Dad, WDW Prep School and such. Seems they all use the same ideas EasyWDW used.... avoid EMH, no MK on Saturday and Monday, avoid DTD on weekends, etc. So how many of these sites are sticking with what Mike started?

Anyhow, lots of questions running through this old guys head today.

This is what we follow. Common sense to me says don't do MK on a Saturday. However our past trip we through common sense aside and did MK on a Saturday for my daughter's birthday...and learned it was a total mistake, total regret, hated every second of being there that day!

 

[Lothlórien]

This is what we follow. Common sense to me says don't do MK on a Saturday. However our past trip we through common sense aside and did MK on a Saturday for my daughter's birthday...and learned it was a total mistake, total regret, hated every second of being there that day!

evlaina is correct. As a general rule, I would always stick with this.

 

[ca819]

I feel like crowd calendars can be beneficial but since everyone looks at them nowadays there seems to be an uptick in those weeks that are "low crowds". I've been burned by it. I feel like so many people plan around those low crowd days that they actually turn out to be busier than some other "medium crowd" days. The best advice I've heard is to compare resort room availability and prices - see if resorts are sold out or if prices are high due to being in high demand.

 

[Lothlórien]

I guess where TP is concerned, I thought it was crazy that they suggested MK for both Monday and Saturday...two busiest days at that park for the last few years. It made me question how accurate that can be if they are pushing you to busy parks and giving it a 3 out of 10? I do like the other tools offered. Such as room requester and such. They also have a dining finder that can be helpful.

Where KTP is concerned, he is a bit of a know-it-all and defensive in the select replies....so that makes me question how and where he derives at his information. Seems if you are asked a question, instead of being curt and bothered, you would want to help people that you are asking to buy your product. ?? So does he use just a best guess? Does he have a methodology? Is he shaking a magic 8 ball or maybe reading from a mayo jar?

Touring Plans has people in the parks every day. Their information can and does change...even on the very day of your visit. The team at TP is smart enough to know Magic Kingdom is nuts on Saturday. I would expect this to change a lot between now and your visit. It is definitely a site to keep checking.

KtP is a regular local park guest, not a company like TP. Just one person throwing out information based upon his experiences. He was partnered with a travel agent, but that is no longer the case, or so I read. I would agree on your assessment of the personality. I have seen him tell CMs who have first-hand information that they are wrong and speaking as he had inside knowledge they were not privvy to. So again, to reiterate, he is just one person touring with his kids in the parks and running a webpage. He may not answer because he probably really doesn't have them.

Having said that, they are all human and both right and wrong at times. They offer a good guideline, but I would go into any park on any day expecting crowds and have a good plan.

 

[ucf_knight]

we are going in may and november. i have a touring plans subscription. i looked at both their crowd calendar as well as kenny the pirates and their suggestions could not be more opposite on most days. where tp says best, ktp says it is the absolute worst and avoid.

i know these things are just created by humans and really is nothing but guesswork. we did follow ktp's suggestions this past december for best park and it was CROWDED in several of them. but when we left and went to another park that was not suggested it was okay.

generally i do not care about crowd calendars but we are taking my parents who are in their 70s and so i want to make this easier on them if possible

so while i get it that the idea is to go where you want to go when you want to go i am curious for those of you who have experience with tp how close they are on their guesses? they have mk as a low day on a saturday and that blows my mind.

I don’t mean to be disrespectful but why would you use/pay for a crowd calendar? It’s always busy now at Disney. Maybe 10-15 years ago they’d be beneficial but nowadays no matter when we go it’s busy. It doesn’t bother us much though if you know how to take full advantage of the FP+ system and refresh as we will never wait in standby by for more than 30 min. all our other rides we do with a FP. I always see people talk crowd levels and calendars and the rest and it doesn’t make sense to me. Just go when it’s the best time for you to personally go. You’ll be disappointed with crowd levels otherwise.

 

[Upatnoon]

Disney offers a free crowd calendar for everyone to use. They charge different ticket prices for different days, with the less-expensive dates generally being predicted as less crowded. Pretend to buy a 1-day ticket and check out the price differences. Christmas week is $159, many days in Sept. are $109.

https://disneyworld.disney.go.com/admission/tickets/theme-parks/

 

[MomtothreeEs]

Unfortunately no one can predict when rides go down. I’ve never had such bad luck with rides as I have today and yesterday. There’s no touring plan to help decide what to do when you rope drop or PPO ADR for the “big” rides, and then they’re down. Or what to do when you’re in line for 45+ minutes and then the ride breaks down. Those things greatly affect how crowded other rides will be.

FWIW- I’ve had better luck with KtP and UT than TP for crowds. Could just be my luck though.

 

[evlaina]

I don’t mean to be disrespectful but why would you use/pay for a crowd calendar? It’s always busy now at Disney. Maybe 10-15 years ago they’d be beneficial but nowadays no matter when we go it’s busy. It doesn’t bother us much though if you know how to take full advantage of the FP+ system and refresh as we will never wait in standby by for more than 30 min. all our other rides we do with a FP. I always see people talk crowd levels and calendars and the rest and it doesn’t make sense to me. Just go when it’s the best time for you to personally go. You’ll be disappointed with crowd levels otherwise.

I pay for both TP and KtP, but not for their calendars (and I'm sure others agree with me). They have other resources on their websites and at $10 and $15 a year, it's not a big deal to me.

 

[KyleAfterAWhile]

I don’t mean to be disrespectful but why would you use/pay for a crowd calendar?

why would anybody buy cigarettes? or alcohol? or pay per view? or lottery tickets? or stick money in a slot machine? or buy water in a bottle?

touring plans is so much more than calendars. kennys are free.

 

[KyleAfterAWhile]

Unfortunately no one can predict when rides go down. I’ve never had such bad luck with rides as I have today and yesterday. There’s no touring plan to help decide what to do when you rope drop or PPO ADR for the “big” rides, and then they’re down. Or what to do when you’re in line for 45+ minutes and then the ride breaks down. Those things greatly affect how crowded other rides will be.

FWIW- I’ve had better luck with KtP and UT than TP for crowds. Could just be my luck though.

we were there at the end of the year and all 3 days we went to mk there were at least 3 rides down at the same time, sometimes 5. always dwarfs, big thunder, space mountain, peter pan and buzz

 

[Remy is Up]

We have the benefit of being close by so we dont stress over crowds due to refresh. Generally the busier the parks. The better refresh works day of.

 

[rpb718]

With the recent major change to HS FP+ tiers starting Feb 19, I think the various crowd calendars are going to be out of sync with reality concerning HS for a little while.