Crowds

[Grasshopper2016]

Reading over the Here Now and Just Back thread, almost everyone (both those who came home happy and those who returned upset) has agreed that crowds of late have been overwhelming. And yet, Touring Plans says that the overall crowd level for every day so far this month has been only a 3, 4, or 5. What gives? I understand that TP bases crowd level on ride waits, not necessarily number of people in the park. But I'm still surprised that seasoned Disney vets can describe a crowd as massive and stifling--like nothing they have ever experienced before--and TP can tell us that it was only a 3. And I'm more than a little terrified about what that means for trips over the next several weeks, when TP is forecasting crowd levels of 9 or 10. Again, what gives?

EDITED: And just to clarify, this is not a situation where TP predicted a low crowd and ended up being wrong. I'm not using TP's crowd predictions. I'm using their "historical crowd" level--that is, the number that they assign to the actual crowd the next day, after they had a chance to see how big it really was.

 

[disneydentist]

It's largely because crowds and wait times don't necessarily have a direct correlation. You would think that they should but they don't have to. You can have completely jammed public spaces while having middle of the road wait times. A lot of those people jamming the walkways are those who have no plan and wander aimlessly while hoping to find something to do that doesn't involve a wait they feel is too long.

 

[scrappinginontario]

You summed it up exactly. TP bases their numbers on ride wait times and those have not been overly high. While their are a lot of people in the parks, they don’t seem to be filling the queues.

Using a completely different website so to be impartial, the average wait times today in the 4 parks according to Thrill Data are:

Animal Kingdom: 34 mins
Epcot: 25 mins
Hollywood Studios: 44 mins
Magic Kingdom: 31 mins

All in all those are reasonable wait times for mid-December which is how I can understand where TPs gets their numbers based on waits.

This is me speaking personally but I’m wondering if some of the feelings of crowds come from how we view being with people in general? Where we live, masking and social distancing are still alive and well. If I were to go into a crowd at Disney that in the past I wouldn’t haven even thought twice about, now I would be so much more aware of the number of people, how close together we are and their actions.

My perceptions have changed greatly in the past 20 months and I know one trip to Disney won’t change all of those. It will take time and I think some may never change.

 

[Aimeedyan]

This is me speaking personally but I’m wondering if some of the feelings of crowds come from how we view being with people in general? Where we live, masking and social distancing are still alive and well. If I were to go into a crowd at Disney that in the past I wouldn’t haven even thought twice about, now I would be so much more aware of the number of people, how close together we are and their actions.

My perceptions have changed greatly in the past 20 months and I know one trip to Disney won’t change all of those. It will take time and I think some may never change.

That may be true for some but we have been comfortable at Disney since the week they reopened and visit quite frequently (every other week or so, for the last 5 years since moving nearby). The crowds last week were MUCH higher than 2017, 2018, and 2019. Thanksgiving was also much higher than those years. I don't count last year. Booth lines 30+ people deep on a weekday morning at 11:30am in early December is not the norm. And if you were on the other side of the booth, you took your life in your own hands getting across the mass of humanity slowly trudging along World Showcase. It was like a game of cat and mouse

I don't give any weight to crowd predictors personally, esp ones that just care about ride times, because I am not there just for rides. My guess is the ride times aren't "that bad" so the number matches. Though I will still argue that a 2 hour wait for Frozen on a Tuesday night in early December is not the norm (which my mother stood in last week - she said the line wasn't even extended out of the building but they stood, not moving, for 20 minutes at a time while LL was cleared out so....).

 

[Day-al]

Tom Bricker at Disney Tourist Blog posted a great article with his theory on recent crowd trends. Quite interesting and I feel he is most likely right on.
For some reason, I cannot post a link to it?

 

[Rileygirl]

Tom Bricker at Disney Tourist Blog posted a great article with his theory on recent crowd trends. Quite interesting and I feel he is most likely right on.
For some reason, I cannot post a link to it?

I hope I can find this article.

however, in defunctland video, it pretty much explains this phenomenon. Virtual lines are going to significantly increase the number of people at other places (bathrooms, food carts, stores, counter service, walking around) because they are NOT waiting in line.

of course, pent up demand for travel due to Covid, the desire not to travel internationally due to Covid, rescheduled trips due to Covid, this could also be the reason as well.

However, wait times described above indicate that the crowd levels are ‘reasonable’?
Guess we will have more data when Christmas crowds report back.

 

[DL1WDW2]

That may be true for some but we have been comfortable at Disney since the week they reopened and visit quite frequently (every other week or so, for the last 5 years since moving nearby). The crowds last week were MUCH higher than 2017, 2018, and 2019. Thanksgiving was also much higher than those years. I don't count last year. Booth lines 30+ people deep on a weekday morning at 11:30am in early December is not the norm. And if you were on the other side of the booth, you took your life in your own hands getting across the mass of humanity slowly trudging along World Showcase. It was like a game of cat and mouse

I don't give any weight to crowd predictors personally, esp ones that just care about ride times, because I am not there just for rides. My guess is the ride times aren't "that bad" so the number matches. Though I will still argue that a 2 hour wait for Frozen on a Tuesday night in early December is not the norm (which my mother stood in last week - she said the line wasn't even extended out of the building but they stood, not moving, for 20 minutes at a time while LL was cleared out so....).

This happened to me also recently at Mine Train attraction . It was almost painful standing in one place for so long. This is a different wait feeling than all those other years of waiting in a line at Disney . I am going to have to use my brain to tell my feet to ignore those LL guests flying feet.

Yes I thought I was the only one that wanders aimlessly in those crowds.

 

[Dis Dragon]

TP base their park crowd levels on historical data. It's highly inaccurate right now, because it's all off of pre-covid travel. The ride return times are still good, those are based off real time data and lines that work pretty much the same as they did before.

 

[soniam]

That may be true for some but we have been comfortable at Disney since the week they reopened and visit quite frequently (every other week or so, for the last 5 years since moving nearby). The crowds last week were MUCH higher than 2017, 2018, and 2019. Thanksgiving was also much higher than those years. I don't count last year. Booth lines 30+ people deep on a weekday morning at 11:30am in early December is not the norm. And if you were on the other side of the booth, you took your life in your own hands getting across the mass of humanity slowly trudging along World Showcase. It was like a game of cat and mouse

I don't give any weight to crowd predictors personally, esp ones that just care about ride times, because I am not there just for rides. My guess is the ride times aren't "that bad" so the number matches. Though I will still argue that a 2 hour wait for Frozen on a Tuesday night in early December is not the norm (which my mother stood in last week - she said the line wasn't even extended out of the building but they stood, not moving, for 20 minutes at a time while LL was cleared out so....).

I felt that Thanksgiving this year was a little less crowded than 2018.

 

[x93nelson13]

The parks looked super crowded to me last week, but things like the monorail and resort buses? Not as much. At all. Maybe that was just my resort or my specific period of time. Which makes me think there is something to people not waiting in line, and making things appear full.

 

[GatorChris]

It was unusual for us last week. Epcot seemed like a madhouse. Especially in World Showcase. But the lines overall were busy but not as busy as crowds would dictate. Strange.

 

[Rileygirl]

One of the best strategies I ever learned from TGM was to avoid EMH days like the plague. This was because after the first couple of hours, (you could do those if you arrived early enough to stay one step ahead of the crowds but then hop to somewhere else) every other aspect of being in that park that day was miserable.

Too long of a wait for filler attractions. Too long of a line to by that Mickey ice cream. Too long of a line to use the restrooms. Too hard to find a seat at the counter service. Shopping with wall to wall tourists. Every aspect of an EmH day was harder.

Now with the magic of Genie and Genie plus, every park, every day could end up feeling like this. Too soon to know, we will have to watch over the next 6 months or so. I am going to be very interested in the Christmas week reports. Can’t get much more peak season then that.

 

[OKWDVCMagic]

It was unusual for us last week. Epcot seemed like a madhouse. Especially in World Showcase. But the lines overall were busy but not as busy as crowds would dictate. Strange.

I was there last week and agree the World Showcase was a mad house.
I estimated the crowds last week to be similar to early June or the week right before Christmas.

IMHO, what has made the World Showcase more difficult to navigate in large crowds is all the newly free standing food and beverage kiosks that have been added throughout that area.

My son and were constantly weaving side to side to move around queues of people around the kiosks that has reduced the walking space.

 

[DL1WDW2]

Recent news article describing San Francisco Street crowds with lots of new street vendors causing huge rat problem during night & day…
One local described this area as a “ shanty town”

 

[Dakota731]

We just finished our stay. and I didn’t think it was any more crowded than our three previous trips during the same week. I guess crowds are a subjective observation, but buses were quick, and I only had to stand once which was unusual. Lines were always moving so they weren’t unbearable to me. I think these forums seem to attract more negative posts then positive ones so don’t be scared off from a trip if you’re on the fence!

 

[CampbellzSoup]

I did three days at disney this week and it was intense. Not even over exaggerating it was so darn crowded!

 

[LSUfan4444]

crowds of late have been overwhelming

Outside of the lowest crowd levels of the year during the lowest years of crown levels, these anecdotal reports are pretty common. Two people in the same park on the same day at the same time can have completely different experiences based on what they're doing, in what order, how big their group is and almost always people will be hyperbolic on social media to get their point across.

It's nothing to be terrified about. Expect crowds, have priorities and a plan and no matter what, keep flexibility a priority.

 

[fbarker]

Outside of the lowest crowd levels of the year during the lowest years of crown levels, these anecdotal reports are pretty common. Two people in the same park on the same day at the same time can have completely different experiences based on what they're doing, in what order, how big their group is and almost always people will be hyperbolic on social media to get their point across.

It's nothing to be terrified about. Expect crowds, have priorities and a plan and no matter what, keep flexibility a priority.

Good point but when the overwhelming number of responses are on the side of the big crowds then it is logical to assume that is the prevailing situation. Unless you feel that people who view the crowds as not bad don't respond here. I tend to think that for most people the crowds are truly intense.

 

[LSUfan4444]

Good point but when the overwhelming number of responses are on the side of the big crowds then it is logical to assume that is the prevailing situation

Big crowds are almost always the overwhelming response, even when the data and wait times tell a different story...thats the point. What it "feels like" is many times not what it is.

 

[Selket]

We were at All Star Movies the first 7 days of December and the resort seemed quiet. Very quiet. The food court was dead... few people eating there. Mobile order there was quick. It was somewhat warm in the day and cool at night - didn't see many in the pool. Busses weren't bad generally but sometimes had a line. They were good about sending more busses.

The parks seemed crowded in the walking spaces and people lined up at food carts in Epcot and other places. It did have that crowded feel to it at times. We usually mobile ordered food and then went inside the QS place to eat and sometimes there were tons of seats. I've been there spring break and busy summer times where it was a madhouse ordering food and getting a seat. I'm just not sure why everyone seemed to be outside on the walkways...all 4 parks were that way to us. Still not the crowds we've seen spring break.

The lines at the festival food booths at Epcot were lengthy sometimes (Saturday night) - probably to be expected as we did talk to a lot of locals who enjoy coming to eat and hanging out at Epcot.