Cruise and Theme Park Operational Updates due to Coronavirus

[wdw_dine_junkie]

It would be just the Buccaneers' luck to pay 50-60 million for Tom Brady to hopefully get back into the playoffs, then have no fans in the stadiums to see it . Especially with the Superbowl in Tampa next year.

 

[rteetz]

I love sports more than I love Disney. I get the connections made to those things but the ongoing discussion about whether the NFL said this or that should be moved on from.

 

[havoc315]

Actually the University of Washington model assumes social distancing only through May. So they do project the effect of stopping mitigation.

No... that's not true.

From their FAQ:


Our model suggests that – with social distancing maintained throughout – the end of the first wave of the epidemic could occur by early June.
The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By the end of the first wave of the epidemic, a substantial proportion of the population of the United States and EEA countries are likely to still be susceptible to the disease and thus measures to avoid a second wave of the pandemic prior to vaccine availability will be necessary. Maintaining some social distancing measures could be supplemented or replaced by nation-wide efforts such as mass screening, contact tracing, and selective quarantine. We are continuing to develop our modeling framework and are exploring alternate scenarios where social distancing measures are incompletely applied or are lifted before the projected first wave of the epidemic has passed. We will make these projections available as soon as development is complete.


So no.. their model does not yet reflect what happens when you lift social distancing.

A major problem is that the mass public is reading these models and graphs without understanding them.

 

[TDSAXX]

No... that's not true.

From their FAQ:


Our model suggests that – with social distancing maintained throughout – the end of the first wave of the epidemic could occur by early June.
The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By the end of the first wave of the epidemic, a substantial proportion of the population of the United States and EEA countries are likely to still be susceptible to the disease and thus measures to avoid a second wave of the pandemic prior to vaccine availability will be necessary. Maintaining some social distancing measures could be supplemented or replaced by nation-wide efforts such as mass screening, contact tracing, and selective quarantine. We are continuing to develop our modeling framework and are exploring alternate scenarios where social distancing measures are incompletely applied or are lifted before the projected first wave of the epidemic has passed. We will make these projections available as soon as development is complete.


So no.. their model does not yet reflect what happens when you lift social distancing.

A major problem is that the mass public is reading these models and graphs without understanding them.

 

[TDSAXX]

COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020. Directly from their website model.

 

[havoc315]

COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020. Directly from their website model.

Again, you're not understanding it correctly. They don't factor in what happens if you end the social distancing. I cited their faq for you where they provide a more detailed explanation.

Please, if I'm wrong -- Cite to me what measures they are assuming are in place after May???

 

[anthony2k7]

The problem with WDW is that they will have the same problem as NYC when it comes to the buses and monorail..but the Skyliner would be okay, maybe.

This fits with my theory that they will not open all the resorts at once.

They may all be available to book, but that doesn't mean people wont be upgraded/moved nearer their arrival time.

Assuming they may only open MK initially, they could open skyliner resorts plus maybe one of the MK resorts.

 

[Spridell]

This fits with my theory that they will not open all the resorts at once.

They may all be available to book, but that doesn't mean people wont be upgraded/moved nearer their arrival time.

Assuming they may only open MK initially, they could open skyliner resorts plus maybe one of the MK resorts.

I can also see Saratoga and Old Key West being opened since they are such sprawling resorts.

 

[Sean74]

Again, you're not understanding it correctly. They don't factor in what happens if you end the social distancing. I cited their faq for you where they provide a more detailed explanation.

Please, if I'm wrong -- Cite to me what measures they are assuming are in place after May???

Their model does take that into effect to The end of may as others have shown, and the model covers the first wave. What they cannot predict is when a reintroduction and second outbreak occurs.

 

[hertamaniac]

This fits with my theory that they will not open all the resorts at once.

They may all be available to book, but that doesn't mean people wont be upgraded/moved nearer their arrival time.

Assuming they may only open MK initially, they could open skyliner resorts plus maybe one of the MK resorts.

I tend to agree. I think one option is a single resort, per tier, will be the start of the reopening, but could easily see the MK resorts open all at once too as they are deluxes (sans FW) and command a premium. That scenario would allow the logistics team to learn what works and doesn't and then propagate the changes to the other park resorts.

 

[jerry557]

Again, you're not understanding it correctly. They don't factor in what happens if you end the social distancing. I cited their faq for you where they provide a more detailed explanation.

Please, if I'm wrong -- Cite to me what measures they are assuming are in place after May???

It doesn't really matter. The goal right now is to slow the spread so the hospital systems don't get overwhelmed. Once that has happened, there will need to be new strategies implemented as the economy opens back up to manage the spread.
The world cannot stay shutdown for 18 months and assume we will have a vaccine at that time and then have zero public health threat.
We can't function long term like this.

It is not even just economically....but other things you don't think about. Right now we have put a stop to all "elective" and non-emergency surgeries. A lot of those surgeries won't be elective forever. They may turn into bigger problems. Many doctors offices are closed right now or not seeing patients. Dentists are only open for emergencies. These things cannot stay closed forever or we are going to be dealing with a lot of other medical problems beyond COVID-19. (As much as I would love to not go to the dentist for 2 years, I don't think that's very healthy.)

Like I said, there is going to have to be a balancing act here. We will have spikes. We will have outbreaks. And hopefully the system will be prepared to deal with that when they pop up. But we can't stay like this for 2 years.

 

[xuxa777]

Actually the University of Washington model assumes social distancing only through May. So they do project the effect of stopping mitigation.

No... that's not true.

From their FAQ:


Our model suggests that – with social distancing maintained throughout – the end of the first wave of the epidemic could occur by early June.
The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By the end of the first wave of the epidemic, a substantial proportion of the population of the United States and EEA countries are likely to still be susceptible to the disease and thus measures to avoid a second wave of the pandemic prior to vaccine availability will be necessary. Maintaining some social distancing measures could be supplemented or replaced by nation-wide efforts such as mass screening, contact tracing, and selective quarantine. We are continuing to develop our modeling framework and are exploring alternate scenarios where social distancing measures are incompletely applied or are lifted before the projected first wave of the epidemic has passed. We will make these projections available as soon as development is complete.


So no.. their model does not yet reflect what happens when you lift social distancing.

A major problem is that the mass public is reading these models and graphs without understanding them.

My only point was that model , said 1.2 million people would die with the current social distancing methods and now it says only 60,000 with the same social distancing measure.

I tend to agree. I think one option is a single resort, per tier, will be the start of the reopening, but could easily see the MK resorts open all at once too as they are deluxes (sans FW) and command a premium. That scenario would allow the logistics team to learn what works and doesn't and then propagate the changes to the other park resorts.

They can open all resorts at the same time no reason not to, only issue will be getting staffing rolled into place.

 

[Lumpy1106]

No... that's not true.

From their FAQ:


Our model suggests that – with social distancing maintained throughout – the end of the first wave of the epidemic could occur by early June.
The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By the end of the first wave of the epidemic, a substantial proportion of the population of the United States and EEA countries are likely to still be susceptible to the disease and thus measures to avoid a second wave of the pandemic prior to vaccine availability will be necessary. Maintaining some social distancing measures could be supplemented or replaced by nation-wide efforts such as mass screening, contact tracing, and selective quarantine. We are continuing to develop our modeling framework and are exploring alternate scenarios where social distancing measures are incompletely applied or are lifted before the projected first wave of the epidemic has passed. We will make these projections available as soon as development is complete.


So no.. their model does not yet reflect what happens when you lift social distancing.

A major problem is that the mass public is reading these models and graphs without understanding them.

Not just the mass public. The Gov. of CA has said, and stands by the estimate that out peak demand is not in about a week like it says on the IHME site, but in another month. He says it, the media repeats it, that's the source. Where is he even getting this from? It makes it impossible to believe anyone.

 

[zumfelde]

I think there is a very easy and simple way the country and Disney can open up within a month. Anyone that is willing to accept the risk that they may catch the virus can go out of their house and start living again. They can still wash their hands and stay away from high risk people. Anyone who is not willing to accept that risk can just stay in their homes until there is a vaccine available and not have any contact with any people that might be infected.

 

[anthony2k7]

They can open all resorts at the same time no reason not to, only issue will be getting staffing rolled into place.

There are lots of reasons not to.

Perhaps they wont want to run the buses for example. Likewise the monorail.

Perhaps they will have no where near enough bookings for it to be financially viable to open all the resorts.

 

[e_yerger]

I mean, the World Health Organization said today that healthy people shouldn't wear masks because they won't keep you from catching the virus.

This is known.
The points of masks is to reduce the spread, not to prevent from catching.

 

[MickeyWaffles]

I think there is a very easy and simple way the country and Disney can open up within a month. Anyone that is willing to accept the risk that they may catch the virus can go out of their house and start living again. They can still wash their hands and stay away from high risk people. Anyone who is not willing to accept that risk can just stay in their homes until there is a vaccine available and not have any contact with any people that might be infected.

Sure, and then in the meantime continue to overwhelm the already over burdened healthcare system. Just because someone doesn’t mind contracting the virus doesn’t mean they’re not going to have complications and end up needing medical care.

 

[shanes17]

I don't disagree with some of your assessment. But here is the thing about "June 1st realistic" etc etc. You are right that there is a good chance the numbers will be dwindling by June. BUT, if we just go back to business-as-usual, the numbers will skyrocket again. The current curve is based on the distancing measures currently being taken. Go back to business as usual, the numbers spike again... we go back to 2,000-3,000 deaths per day. The death numbers we are seeing now, are based on our behavior 3-4 weeks ago, when distancing was not in effect in most places in the US. If we just "re-open," then 2 months later, we will be right back to where we are now.

So then what are you suggesting?

Everyone stay inside and hide because we might get infected a month or two later? You might as well build a bunker and stay out of site for the rest of 2020 in that case.

The curve has been “flattened”, we don’t need to continue doing the same to the economy due to fear.

 

[MickeyWaffles]

So then what are you suggesting?

Everyone stay inside and hide because we might get infected a month or two later? You might as well build a bunker and stay out of site for the rest of 2020 in that case.

The curve has been “flattened”, we don’t need to continue doing the same to the economy due to fear.

If everything goes back to “normal” too soon after peak, there will just be another huge surge. Thousands and thousands seriously ill. Many more deaths.

The economy is people. People are the economy. You need people to sustain the economy. If things go back to normal too early, it will be absolutely devastating to recover from. The economy will not be thriving.

 

[xuxa777]

Sure, and then in the meantime continue to overwhelm the already over burdened healthcare system. Just because someone doesn’t mind contracting the virus doesn’t mean they’re not going to have complications and end up needing medical care.

Outside of a few small hospitals in NY, healthcare is not overburdened currently