Dad's Crowd Calendar FAIL!!!

[Corryn]

When my kids were little, we rarely came when crowds were heavy, most times we were able to walk on most rides. Like some have said, it also seems to me that over the last few years the crowds are bad no matter what time of year. I

Never heard of Dad's. No idea if it's reliable or not. They aren't all reliable.

Dad's has been around for *Years*. I've never really used his site because when the kids were little I was pretty Disney savvy, but we haven't been back since 2014 and needed to choose a good, low crowd time, and supposedly his crowd calendar has always been a trusted source by fellow DIS'ers. The one time I use it, it doesn't work. I'm going to check out every convention I can using that link above and others the next time I return, and come down during the doctors conventions, rocket scientists, or heliophobic and vampire conventions

 

[CharissaOKC]

We booked this week because most of the crowd calendars were saying it was going to be a light week. It was pretty busy and HOT but we managed to still do almost everything we wanted. I feel like the announcement that wishes was ending is what threw everything into a tailspin.

 

[ENJDisneyFan]

Who is Dad's?

http://www.dadsguidetowdw.com/

Of all the crowd calendars I would trust Dad's the least. He (in my experience) gives a lot of misinformation and is basically one big advertisement for his travel agency. Crowd calendars should be taken with a grain of salt...they are basically educated guesses based on a number of factors like EMH, historical trends, special events, etc. There is nothing scientific about it but they can certainly offer some loose guidance to planning out park days during your trip.

 

[Allison]

In all my years on the dis, I have never heard fellow posters mention that site.

 

[AngiTN]

In all my years on the dis, I have never heard fellow posters mention that site.

Me either. Granted, I haven't been around that long but I am around quite a bit. You'd think if it was mentioned a lot I would have at least seen it.

 

[AngiTN]

http://www.dadsguidetowdw.com/

Of all the crowd calendars I would trust Dad's the least. He (in my experience) gives a lot of misinformation and is basically one big advertisement for his travel agency. Crowd calendars should be taken with a grain of salt...they are basically educated guesses based on a number of factors like EMH, historical trends, special events, etc. There is nothing scientific about it but they can certainly offer some loose guidance to planning out park days during your trip.

This is spot on. Some are better guessers than others though.

 

[Sarcazm]

I think that's the bigger issue. With all the hotels around, there's no centralized list. I actually looked for that convention through the hotel's website (Hilton Orlando Buena Vista Palace) and I could not find a list of conventions at that hotel at all.

Some hotels may not want that information public, as some potential guests may see a convention coming and it might scare them to another hotel.

Hmmm... This has me thinking. I used to work in the restaurant industry in Dallas. They always take into account how busy the restaurant will be based on 2 things: this same day last year + any activities/events that may be going on nearby. I wonder if there is a business in Orlando (hotel or restaurant) that would have a list of all these events.

 

[sdomino11]

We're about to begin our third day in the parks. The first two days were predicted 4s (at our specific parts, not resort-wide) by Touring Plans and they were both reported as 5s once the day ended. Pretty close, in my opinion. And our touring plans still worked.

 

[Amelia :)]

This was actually one of the first websites I used, but the more I learn, the more I find his information to be very inaccurate.

 

[Rusty2rules]

Of all the crowd calendars I would trust Dad's the least. He (in my experience) gives a lot of misinformation and is basically one big advertisement for his travel agency. Crowd calendars should be taken with a grain of salt...they are basically educated guesses based on a number of factors like EMH, historical trends, special events, etc. There is nothing scientific about it but they can certainly offer some loose guidance to planning out park days during your trip.

I spent a lot of time on the FD watch thread and several people on there talked a lot of smack about Dad's. And nobody came to "his" defense. Basically said what you said. I'm using Touring Plans for this trip. We'll see how it goes.

 

[pbruce706]

Kind of in the same boat as the OP, haven't been since 2014 but am currently planning a trip for November. I always used EasyWDW and some TP, but Josh doesn't seem to do crowd calendars anymore. Always liked his most / least recommended parks. Guess I'll just have to base it on what I think I've learned over the years.

 

[superchime]

I always used EasyWDW and some TP, but Josh doesn't seem to do crowd calendars anymore. Always liked his most / least recommended parks. Guess I'll just have to base it on what I think I've learned over the years.

Yes! I loved EasyWDW's calendars and was disappointed to see that they don't seem to be updated any more.

 

[ForeverAlice]

You can also check out the event calendar on ESPN Wide World of Sports website. -Amanda

I check this before every trip as well!

 

[CeruleanMoon]

It's not just Dad's. I've checked a bunch of different calendars and they all seemed to agree that the first two weeks in May should have light to moderate crowds. Then I downloaded the Disney Experience app and started checking line wait times on that. I've been checking for two weeks, almost every day, and the lines for major rides are regularly in the 60+ minutes range (and some at MK up to 80 minutes.) Are all calendars this unreliable? Or do I just have a different idea of what light/moderate means? I'm feeling dismayed since I was hoping to go in May next year.

 

[Maggie'sMom]

I've checked a bunch of different calendars and they all seemed to agree that the first two weeks in May should have light to moderate crowds. Then I downloaded the Disney Experience app and started checking line wait times on that. I've been checking for two weeks, almost every day, and the lines for major rides are regularly in the 60+ minutes range (and some at MK up to 80 minutes.) Are all calendars this unreliable? Or do I just have a different idea of what light/moderate means? I'm feeling dismayed since I was hoping to go in May next year.

60-80 minute waits for the headliner rides in the middle of the day is what light/moderate crowds means. 7DMT and Space Mountain are currently showing 60 minute waits and that seems pretty reasonable for those rides at 11:00am.

 

[AngiTN]

It's not just Dad's. I've checked a bunch of different calendars and they all seemed to agree that the first two weeks in May should have light to moderate crowds. Then I downloaded the Disney Experience app and started checking line wait times on that. I've been checking for two weeks, almost every day, and the lines for major rides are regularly in the 60+ minutes range (and some at MK up to 80 minutes.) Are all calendars this unreliable? Or do I just have a different idea of what light/moderate means? I'm feeling dismayed since I was hoping to go in May next year.

Probably.

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

It's not just Dad's. I've checked a bunch of different calendars and they all seemed to agree that the first two weeks in May should have light to moderate crowds. Then I downloaded the Disney Experience app and started checking line wait times on that. I've been checking for two weeks, almost every day, and the lines for major rides are regularly in the 60+ minutes range (and some at MK up to 80 minutes.) Are all calendars this unreliable? Or do I just have a different idea of what light/moderate means? I'm feeling dismayed since I was hoping to go in May next year.

Our experience was that 1st week of May this year was busier than 1st week of May last year. We had a day at MK that was an 8. There were cheerleading competitions, the end of Wishes, and everyone says that May is the time to go (so maybe people heeded that). I think Disney has just gotten good at filling their parks.

It's also just hard to tell half a year in advance what special events Disney is going to add

 

[Amanda999]

I went to MK on a "1" day per Touring Plans and green/best park per EasyWDW mid-Jan 2015 (weekday; not near Mt. Luther KJ day) . It was low crowds before Noon (but headliners still weren't walk ons). By the 3pm parade it was packed; fireworks at night packed - no personal space between people. That was the year that it seemed it was just more crowded no matter when you went. (That was the year IIRC that Oct. changed alot.)

 

[Amelia :)]

Just always expect it to be crowded and you'll never be disappointed

 

[tlmadden73]

Crowd calendars are dead I think and just not really worth it anymore. Too many variables to track and try to predict.
The only people who know how crowded it is going to be is Disney .. and I am sure even they don't know until it gets really close. They know how many resort rooms are booked and how many Fast Passes have been reserved for each park.

Crowd calendars feel like it's like trying to predict what the weather will be like on your trip months in advance.
I've gone 4 different times (none of which I would consider "peak") since 2010 and each one is of varying crowd levels but if I went back next year at any of those times it could be vastly different.

1) Crowd Calendars are self-fulfilling prophecies -- after years and years of these calendars being out there and word of mouth spreading what the "good" time is to go .. MORE and MORE people are choosing to go during those times.
2) Disney is great at promoting itself via huge discounts, etc. It seems like they always have some promotion going on.
3) Disney is great at pulling people in at "down" times via events - runs, festivals, parties. I mean just look how every year the festivals and party dates grow year over year.
4) Disney is great at getting these humungous "competitions" .. like cheerleading, band, sports, etc. I am sure there is a way to find out when these things are happening, but most crowd calendars don't seem to take that into account.

5) They just predict the future based on PAST years, but .. they can't predict the future very far in advance. See #1-4

Just wait until these new lands begin to open. How will these crowd calendars "predict" how busy certain parks will be when it will be unknown how popular those new sections will be (especially in its first year when they have no "past" data to use).

I guess just use common sense based on when MOST kids are in or out of school: