Cheaper cruises are something I will look at as we get a bit closer to the paid-in-full date. I agree that the longer cruises, at Disney prices, are a much bigger risk. It would be disappointing to pay that kind of money and not be able to enjoy the ports fully.
The truth is that we were very much on the fence about whether to do the cruise versus a land trip - so if I need to make it a land trip, I won't be disappointed.
I had a brother travel all over Italy last summer and he had a great trip. Either things will improve so much that restrictions will be light or gone, or they will still be in place and crowds will be on the lighter side. There are positives to both scenarios. The third option, that things are worse than last summer, seems unlikely given many factors (which we aren't really allowed to discuss here). The bottom line is that even if things are like last summer, we will have a good time.
It's hard to be excited right now. But I would have said the same thing last December, and things rapidly changed in the spring. I suspect that will happen again. We will be flexible and ready to roll with the conditions.