This is kind of where my head went as well after reading through this thread and watching some of the Touring Plans response to this news. For the Tier 1, Lightning Lane purchase only rides like 7DMT the question is what percentage of the queue is available (compared to current Fast Pass levels) and how much it is utilized. If it's the current level (Touring Plans was estimating 75-80%) and fully utilized then it's the same long line as it is currently without the previous option of getting a FP unless I want to pay more (BOO! bash). BUT if the number of FP equivalent slots is lower or not fully utilized then the standby line should be shorter.
Additionally, if Genie+ is pushing people to other rides included in its list particularly at park open but also throughout the day that should also have an impact. The tier 1 rides still seems like a good rope drop option, particularly if you have the 30 minute Disney early morning as an onsite (or affiliated) guest. Say, you get in at 8:30 as on onsite guest and have a 9:00 park open lightning pass for Peter Pan... you should be able to clear 7DMT and get that 9:00 - 10:00 window for Peter Pan. But for offsite guests, are you going to take that gamble now or just go directly to Peter Pan and pick up your next lightning pass? Does that suppress the rope drop line? And then if more guests are even just using vanilla Genie (versus butterscotch maple Genie+) it's going to be pushing them around the parks in different ways, at what point does it say "120 minute wait for 7DMT, you should get on that" and expect guests to accept that with a straight face.
Long winded way of saying, it's hard for me to see (though to be fair, I do wear glasses) a situation where the number of purchased lightning passes for those Tier 1 rides like 7DMT is equal to the previous level of free fast passes that were picked up which should result in faster standby lines for those rides.
I do think the list of Tier 1 rides is going to be more than just one per park though:
AK: Flight of Passage, ??? okay - already stumped me on the first park, for a second ride - Festival of the Lion King? Expedition Everest?
HS: Rise of the Resistance, Slinky Dog Dash
Epcot: Ratatouille, Frozen (sub out for Cosmic Rewind when it comes on line)
MK: 7 Dwarves Mine Train, Space/Splash Mountain (seasonal substitution? sub out for Tron when it comes on line)
A couple funny things with that (less ha-ha funny and more hmm funny) is that now you're pulling a chunk of what used to be fast pass slots out of the system. Do shows end up in Genie+ when they return? Do they make sense to use a lightning pass on? Overall, it seems like there are going to be fewer fast pass equivalent slots in the system and some weird value decisions (is a lightning lane for Mad Tea Party 30 minutes from now greater/equal/less value than one for Haunted Mansion 90 minutes from now?).
A lot of the cost arguments are treating this as an all or nothing proposition as well, family of 4 for 5 days equals an extra $300 dollars but does Genie+ make sense in all the parks? I can see it's value in MK or HS but it seems a bit dodgy in Epcot and AK. If you're going to be doing standby for FOP in AK anyways (an extra $$$ to skip the line or suck it up buttercup(s) and we'll get ice cream after) you can probably navigate the rest of the park with some longer waits but trails and train rides as wait time pressure releases and similarly in Epcot you can focus your energy on getting the Ratatouille virtual queue while the butterscotch maple Genie+ users are scrambling to get Spaceship Earth lightning passes at 7 AM. Again, it's still an extra cost even if you just use it for MK and HS but, oh... to be in the meeting when they go over Genie+ adoption rates at different parks, that will be interesting. I think they are drawing on the Max Pass experience from Disneyland and perhaps forgetting the way the proximity of the parks to each other there contributed to its success. If I can split out days where I don't need it ("We spend most of our Epcot day in World Showcase", "We just want to hit Hollywood Studios in the morning to walk around Galaxy's Edge while we wait for our ROTR boarding group and then have a pool day", "Kids, it's time you learned an important lesson about how cruel and unforgiving the world can be... we're going to the Magic Kingdom and not using any lightning passes today.") from the days where it would be a benefit ("Sorry about yesterday kids, let's try this Genie+ thing at Magic Kingdom today") then maybe it's a bit less of an additional charge (still... an additional charge so... we're back to BOO! bash).
