Disney Q4 and Full Year Earnings for 2020

[New Mouse]

Why would they need to translate it? Verizon is paying Disney for that deal, it’s not like they’re getting these deals from Disney for their customers as a kind gesture. While it’s likely extremely discounted, they’re still paid subscriptions.

Because 67 million people paying $10 is a lot more than 67 million people paying $1. Until they break it down there is no way to know how successful it is.

 

[Mit88]

Because 67 million people paying $10 is a lot more than 67 million people paying $1. Until they break it down there is no way to know how successful it is.

For some reason I seriously doubt even close to 67M people are paying $75+ a month for the unlimited plan needed to get that deal from Disney. And by the time the next offer expires, Disney+ will have enough original content to keep people subscribed, and probably at a higher monthly price tag.

They’re not lying when they say they have 73M subscribers, whether it’s a dollar or $7. Do you consider Netflix successful because they have 193M subscribers? Because they’re drowning in debt. Over 15 Billion dollars in debt, actually. Difference is, Disney doesn’t have to “rent” content from studios. So subscriber number in their first year really doesn’t matter in terms of success unless you’re aimlessly looking for a reason to tear it down with a narrative

 

[New Mouse]

For some reason I seriously doubt even close to 67M people are paying $75+ a month for the unlimited plan needed to get that deal from Disney. And by the time the next offer expires, Disney+ will have enough original content to keep people subscribed, and probably at a higher monthly price tag.

They’re not lying when they say they have 73M subscribers, whether it’s a dollar or $7. Do you consider Netflix successful because they have 193M subscribers? Because they’re drowning in debt. Over 15 Billion dollars in debt, actually. Difference is, Disney doesn’t have to “rent” content from studios. So subscriber number in their first year really doesn’t matter in terms of success unless you’re aimlessly looking for a reason to tear it down with a narrative

Saying 73 million subscribers without financial data behind it is just trying to PR pop your stock price. Its more likely that if the income was even close to the subscriber data, they would have released it along side that data.

 

[Mit88]

Saying 73 million subscribers without financial data behind it is just trying to PR pop your stock price. Its more likely that if the income was even close to the subscriber data, they would have released it along side that data.

But you’re acting as though this number could be skewed by a promo to make it seem like people are only subscribed because it’s “free”. I’m positive a large number of that “free” subscriber base would be willing to pay the $7 a month, especially this year, and almost definitely while Mandalorian has been on. PR pop or not, the service is successful and will continue to grow with more content on the way beyond the days of free promotions

 

[OSUZorba]

They are very encouraged by what they are seeing with parks and resorts. They are becoming more efficient with the parks. Disney is becoming more creative with park capacity limits as well.

And this is why Cali doesn't trust them.

 

[rteetz]

And this is why Cali doesn't trust them.

Yes and no. You’re going to learn and find different ways to do things as time goes on. Disney is doing that in many respects. Now whether that’s good or bad is really up to each individual.

 

[OSUZorba]

Or 3 months...

According to Pfizer data from people in phase 1 would indicate that it sticks around at least 9 months at this point. We'll see how it pans out, but no reason to be a doomsayer yet. Antibodies from the small pox vaccine drop off after 6 month too, but it is still effective for basically life.

 

[PortMickey]

Direct to consumer division lost $2.8 billion for the fiscal year. Almost $38 per Disney+ subscriber. They can make that up pretty quick if they can keep growing subscribers this fast. And price increases will be coming when the content stream gets better. That division lost $580 million this quarter, $7.86 per Disney+ subscriber.

 

[mamaofsix]

That would explain why you hear reports of it being "too crowded". IF they hit their "max" reduced capacity... it just means they are "weekday slow season" crowded (which was still "too crowded" to some in the old days).

So they really aren't turning anyone away (except maybe at MK and DHS). And it isn't "ghost town" crowds anymore. Gotcha. THey definitely are going to have to get "creative" though when the parks due get near that max 35% capacity .. because social distancing and queues just don't work very well together.

Though . I doubt they will reach max capacity for a LONG time (again .. except at MK and DHS) .. especially once the Christmas season is over.

The difference, though, is that in the past on a "weekday slow season," the shows and theater style attractions were still open, which were huge people eaters. And all restaurants were operating. Rides were also running twice as many people through per hour - and operating hours were longer to spread out the crowds.

The complaints of it feeling crowded are valid right now. With the lack of experiences, the line wait times are closer to Christmas Day capacity levels.

If they truly are operating at 35% capacity, they need to get their restaurants open and all of their attractions / shows up and running again to mitigate the crowding of walk ways, attraction line ups, etc.

 

[yulilin3]

The bottom line is we can't have it both ways.
We can't have lower crowds and an open WDW
We can't have attractions operating at 100% for shorter (distance) queues
Should Disney reopen more restaurants, store, shows? Sure. Will they? Not likely to the extent that's needed
So if you ultimately decide to come have real expectations and come with an open mind and you'll have a good time, i see this in the just back trip reports time and time again, people are a bit apprehensive, then they come and report they had a great time. It's all with what energy you come

 

[CastAStone]

Saying 73 million subscribers without financial data behind it is just trying to PR pop your stock price. Its more likely that if the income was even close to the subscriber data, they would have released it along side that data.

They published financial information. They’re making $4.52 per subscriber.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Paid subscribers also include the pennies on the dollar tie in promotions through verizon, etc. There are a lot of customers who are still paying 0 (me included), but disney is likely getting some minimal kickback for it.

Right (though we don't know if it is pennies or dimes or quarters on the dollar) - so they are still getting some money, this isn't just people signing up for free for a month and cancelling

But let's see where they continue to be as some of those run out and people who got an annual rate come due, do they renew? What about when rates go up?

On the flip side, the fact they haven't had any Marvel shows yet (but coming soon) should allow for more room to grow and based on some comments around Soul they expect to see subscriptions give out as holiday gifts so that could lift numbers as well

 

[TheMaxRebo]

They published financial information. They’re making $4.52 per subscriber.

View attachment 538146

That is pretty good - that is more than I am paying, locked in at the D23 rate

 

[AvidDisReader]

That would explain why you hear reports of it being "too crowded". IF they hit their "max" reduced capacity... it just means they are "weekday slow season" crowded (which was still "too crowded" to some in the old days).

So they really aren't turning anyone away (except maybe at MK and DHS). And it isn't "ghost town" crowds anymore. Gotcha. THey definitely are going to have to get "creative" though when the parks due get near that max 35% capacity .. because social distancing and queues just don't work very well together.

Though . I doubt they will reach max capacity for a LONG time (again .. except at MK and DHS) .. especially once the Christmas season is over.

Agree, except if a vaccine is rolled out. Than all bets are off as to what the capacity will look like.

 

[AvidDisReader]

For some reason I seriously doubt even close to 67M people are paying $75+ a month for the unlimited plan needed to get that deal from Disney. And by the time the next offer expires, Disney+ will have enough original content to keep people subscribed, and probably at a higher monthly price tag.

They’re not lying when they say they have 73M subscribers, whether it’s a dollar or $7. Do you consider Netflix successful because they have 193M subscribers? Because they’re drowning in debt. Over 15 Billion dollars in debt, actually. Difference is, Disney doesn’t have to “rent” content from studios. So subscriber number in their first year really doesn’t matter in terms of success unless you’re aimlessly looking for a reason to tear it down with a narrative

Not an expert on how this computes into ongoing quarterly results, but how does those like me who paid a one time fee of $165 for three years show up? Does the income just show up on the quarter they receive the money or is it somehow spread out thru out over the 12 quarters. If I am not mistaken, there were something like 20 million who took advantage of that 3 year deal at roll out.

 

[YesterDark]

I think all the vaccine talk should be set aside because no one knows anything about it right now. Speculating about it is silly. There are dozens of vaccines that will be hitting or coming out of phase 3 trials in the next 2-3 months. Just be happy that we've gotten great information, but right now even Pfizer-Biontech don't know. Experts are optimistic about it and that what counts for me.

Glad to see Disney has an optimistic view moving forward. Here's to 2020 coming to a close.

 

[YesterDark]

Not an expert on how this computes into ongoing quarterly results, but how does those like me who paid a one time fee of $165 for three years show up? Does the income just show up on the quarter they receive the money or is it somehow spread out thru out over the 12 quarters. If I am not mistaken, there were something like 20 million who took advantage of that 3 year deal at roll out.

Subscription information is always obfuscated behind accounting math to make it look best for the company. You pay 4.58 a month which is the average CastAStone posted above.

 

[New Mouse]

Not an expert on how this computes into ongoing quarterly results, but how does those like me who paid a one time fee of $165 for three years show up? Does the income just show up on the quarter they receive the money or is it somehow spread out thru out over the 12 quarters. If I am not mistaken, there were something like 20 million who took advantage of that 3 year deal at roll out.

In a normal accounting world, that revenue would hit when its received. In a fuzzy world, you will still be counted as a "paying" subscriber on day 363 in year 3.

Another big ? Is how much companies like verizon are paying. In the past They also got into bed with Disney for espn3.

 

[RivShore]

They published financial information. They’re making $4.52 per subscriber.

View attachment 538146

Was just about to go look this up for New Mouse, thanks for saving me the trouble.

That is a pretty good number and as others have said, it probably means there are not a whole lot of free subscribers in the numbers so churn as they roll off will be lost in the shuffle as new subscribers and territories roll in.

 

[RivShore]

Not an expert on how this computes into ongoing quarterly results, but how does those like me who paid a one time fee of $165 for three years show up? Does the income just show up on the quarter they receive the money or is it somehow spread out thru out over the 12 quarters. If I am not mistaken, there were something like 20 million who took advantage of that 3 year deal at roll out.

They would use standard subscription accounting and recognize your prepaid revenue monthly so, each month, 1/36th of your pre-pay gets moved to the income statement.