Disney Wonder West Coast 2021

[radman90]

Will they bring her around to San Diego for just few fall cruises ?

 

[Marc D]

At this point, no one knows, but the PC crossing cost will make it difficult to justify.

 

[otten]

Will they bring her around to San Diego for just few fall cruises ?

Very doubtful I think. The PC is expensive and the San Diego fall cruises are not big money makers.

 

[BartmanLA]

Unless they can arrange very soon to sail out of Seattle for an abbreviated Alaskan cruise season, it's unlikely they'll spend the money on tolls to bring the Wonder through the Canal for just the Mexican Riveria cruises. Apparently they've slated the Magic to spend time this winter in Galveston, which might mean the Wonder would share that port for additional HOTHS and MerryTime Christmas cruises during that period, before moving the Wonder over to New Orleans in preparation for the 2022 WBPC trip which we're booked on and are still anticipating going with out any changes. The key is if they're going to list a EBPC trip for 2022 once they release all the Wonder's itineraries. That will give an indication what plans they have for her to either come back to the Gulf or to remain on the West Coast for the winter season.

 

[otten]

Unless they can arrange very soon to sail out of Seattle for an abbreviated Alaskan cruise season, it's unlikely they'll spend the money on tolls to bring the Wonder through the Canal for just the Mexican Riveria cruises. Apparently they've slated the Magic to spend time this winter in Galveston, which might mean the Wonder would share that port for additional HOTHS and MerryTime Christmas cruises during that period, before moving the Wonder over to New Orleans in preparation for the 2022 WBPC trip which we're booked on and are still anticipating going with out any changes. The key is if they're going to list a EBPC trip for 2022 once they release all the Wonder's itineraries. That will give an indication what plans they have for her to either come back to the Gulf or to remain on the West Coast for the winter season.

If they were planning on going to Alaska via Seattle would they have cancelled the existing Alaska reservations? They’ve already cancelled those which to me indicates that they don’t plan to attempt the Seattle to Alaska plan.

 

[iannovich]

I'm still hopeful. The baja cruises may not be the most lucrative, but the 7 night baja cruise is sold out, and so is the East Bound Panama Canal... If they sailed all the west coast cruises that haven't been canceled yet, that would be 11 sailings. If they can get the crew together, it may be be worth it for to them to do it, even if it is just break even for them, and gets them back up to speed. I have my fingers crossed.

 

[jenmiller114]

I'm still hopeful. The baja cruises may not be the most lucrative, but the 7 night baja cruise is sold out, and so is the East Bound Panama Canal... If they sailed all the west coast cruises that haven't been canceled yet, that would be 11 sailings. If they can get the crew together, it may be be worth it for to them to do it, even if it is just break even for them, and gets them back up to speed. I have my fingers crossed.

I agree. Many believe they would not pay to transit the canal empty for a handful of cruises. I totally get where they are coming from because it is expensive. But knowing what they charge for those cruises and what the cost is to transit, I have to believe they are still making money. And making some money or at least breaking even has to be better than what they are doing now.

I am booked on the Panama Canal cruise and I put it at 50/50 as to whether they sail. Not because I don't think they will pay for the transit but because I think they will focus on getting the Dream & Fantasy going first. The Magic will already be staffed for UK sailings so that leaves the Wonder last. Can they have all 3 ships sailing by the end of September? Hard to say. But anything is possible and I am trying to remain hopeful.

 

[KVH]

If they were planning on going to Alaska via Seattle would they have cancelled the existing Alaska reservations? They’ve already cancelled those which to me indicates that they don’t plan to attempt the Seattle to Alaska plan.

The biggest problem with Seattle is actually finding berthing space. Based on the current schedule as of 6/8, the only available days in August and September seem to be some Wednesday's and Thursdays. At 91 (meh). Which is the pier DCL has historically used. But then they'd need staffing too (DCL and Carnival used to share HAL's port staff but that's changed). Yes, they could pull that off but there's been little real activity to make it happen AFAIK.

I can't find San Diego's schedule but that would be more telling if we could find an update to their berthing lists show an arrival in September.

 

[otten]

Yes I agree and also they have already cancelled al of their Alaska reservations. If they were going to go ahead and do Alaska from Seattle I would imagine that they wouldn’t have cancelled the original Alaska season, they’d have offered the amended itinerary to those passengers.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

The thing is, normally DCL's WB PC transit has passengers, all of whom pay a fee toward that transit. Makes a big difference over deadheading the transit.

 

[radman90]

I'm still hopeful. The baja cruises may not be the most lucrative, but the 7 night baja cruise is sold out, and so is the East Bound Panama Canal... If they sailed all the west coast cruises that haven't been canceled yet, that would be 11 sailings. If they can get the crew together, it may be be worth it for to them to do it, even if it is just break even for them, and gets them back up to speed. I have my fingers crossed.

 

[radman90]

we are scheduled for seven night also

 

[iannovich]

The thing is, normally DCL's WB PC transit has passengers, all of whom pay a fee toward that transit. Makes a big difference over deadheading the transit.

That's true of course. They probably won't be raking in piles of dough. But Disney is a big corporation, and they're not afraid to take a strategic loss where they need to. If they can get revenue cruises going, it may be worth it to them to sail the Wonder through Westbound empty so they can be raking in some dough. With nobody on board, they do have the luxury of picking the least financially painful time to transit.

Dipping into the remaining West Coast "Plan a cruise" options I can see that:
• The 7 night Baja and the EBPC are both currently sold out. 125% FCC on these full sailings is nothing to sneeze at. (is that alone enough to offset the PC fees?)
• The 10/18 and 10/27 4-night Baja cruises currently don't have any availability in Inside or Oceanview... Only Verandah and Concierge have availability.
• The 10/2 5-night Baja also doesn't have any availability in Inside or Oceanview. Only Verandah and Concierge are available for booking.
• 9/26 No Deluxe inside staterooms are available.
• Spot checking I can see that various categories across various sailings are offering Guaranteed Fares, and I see missing decks and missing sections of the ship. That doesn't necessarily mean anything of course, they could be holding areas of the ship back for whatever reason, but when I look at what staterooms are available, in some decks and ship sections I only see a couple of staterooms left available, and many seem to be only/mostly on the Starboard side.

All these things show me (and Disney) that there is a good chunk of demand for these specific sailings on the West Coast (where they already have port agreements and berthing arranged). And that demand is with the current, uncertain situation.

I do see that there is still plenty of availability, but if people were actually confident Disney was committed to these voyages (like say an announcement, or comment, or barely audible whisper in pig-latin saying "Hey, we're committed to these voyages"), I'm willing to bet that there would be even fewer options showing as available to book.

Of course, just because there is demand doesn't mean Disney can or will make these happen. But I'm willing to bet there's a number cruncher team that is running an equation that looks something like:

125% FCC (+) Cranky/frustrated CC members (+) Wonder sitting idle (costing $$ and not generating $$) (-) savings on not paying for empty WBPC crossing
VS.
Keeping those Baja cruise fares (+) keeping EBPC cruise fares (+) DVC contract sales $$ (+) Palo $$ (+) mixology $$ (+) all that sweet sweet bingo money $$$$$ (#ShakeItUpBetty)

Does the math work? dunno... but I wouldn't underestimate the savings of just sucking up and paying the empty PC transit charges and generating any revenue to start offsetting costs, vs. tacking on an extra 25% FCC on those pricey EBPC fares and not having anything to show for it.

 

[DisneyMusicMan]

Did anyone else notice this? Not sure if it’s a mistake, or an update. The website says the Wonder is cancelled through “Sept 19”. But, the recording that prompts you when you call DCL says “Sept 9” for the Wonder. The dates for the other ships align to the website announcement.

Could this be a mistake that slipped through? Or a silent update?

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Probably a drunk intern.

 

[Quellman]

The thing is, normally DCL's WB PC transit has passengers, all of whom pay a fee toward that transit. Makes a big difference over deadheading the transit.

If Disney doesn't have passengers. they can reduce PC crossing by not paying for a preferred transit time. They can go in the middle of the night for all it matters. That should be cheaper than a booked time slot.

 

[KVH]

True, but we're still talking ~$300K+ empty for passage. Plus fuel. That's gotta be a chunk of change to any operation.

 

[jenmiller114]

Also true. But the concierge rooms alone will pull in almost enough to pay for the transit both ways. The lowest price for 2 people is $17,000 on the return sailing. The other rooms go upwards of $40K++ With the rest of the ship full and the money they will make on all of the merchandise, drinks, excursions, spa, etc. I think they'll be ok.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I think the greater challenge is staffing the ship. Wonder seems to be last in line, and some of the countries that normally supply a lot of crew are problematic right now. Lot of quarantine.

 

[iannovich]

True, but we're still talking ~$300K+ empty for passage. Plus fuel. That's gotta be a chunk of change to any operation.

That's very good to know.

Before the fall EBPC sold out, the cheapest cabin I saw was a guaranteed inside stateroom (for only 2 passengers) and it was around $5k... there are 875 cabins on the Wonder, so figuring at the very-very least $5k per cabin would end up being a minimum $4.375 million in gross revenue for just that one sailing. If I were Disney I'd gladly eat $300k Westbound to get all the remaining Baja sailing's revenue, plus a minimum $4.4 million on the return EBPC trip. I had looked at the 7 day Baja prices at one point, but I can't remember what I was seeing for minimum prices on that one, but we do know that one is sold out as well.

Even for the little 2 day Baja, figuring the cheapest inside cabin price for only 2 passengers is currently $1433. Multiply that times 875 cabins and we end up with a minimum $1.25m just in booking revenue for a little 2 night cruise. The math is dirty, because not every sailing would necessarily sell out (or even be allowed to sail full), but some of that is offset by the higher cost for the better staterooms and suites, and the fact that I'm only figuring 2 passengers per cabin, so I'm guessing my numbers are actually probably low.

With these numbers I can easily justify them making the crossing empty.

Sometimes I fantasize that I click on the 'Special Offers' page to find that they have added a last minute, once-in-a-lifetime-special-don't-miss-this-blink-and-you'll-miss-it-super-cheap-(relatively)-must-be-vaccinated-so-we-don't-need-to-play-with-the-CSO 2021 WBPC and that's how they get the Wonder back on the West Coast, but after looking at these numbers, I don't think they need to scrape up a revenue cruise to help justify sending the Wonder over. I don't think we're looking at just breaking even any longer. I'm swinging back to being Neutral-Positive on the remaining sailings going as scheduled.

I wonder if anyone has ever taken opening day prices for every cabin and figured out what the gross revenue per sailing would be if it sold out at those prices...