"DVC 2.0" theory & 2042

[AvidDisReader]

Agree, Disney likes both. My point is they would not lose the Convention Business, just most likely some of the rooms will not be Disney rooms.

 

[Jenniebee]

I think they've created a big problem for themselves with OKW. So now they have some 2057 and some 2042. What will they do there?

I doubt this will be a problem, by 2042 most of the contracts will all expire in 2057 through turnover I would think. It's totally in Disney's control to make this happen so I don't know why they wouldn't.

 

[treygn]

No need to flip them all at once, Disney can rent them as cash rooms until declared into the club.

It's not the same. There's a reason why Disney keeps building DVC resorts and not just adding cash rooms. DVC members come more often, buy annual passes, and spend a lot of money. It makes less sense for Disney to *replace* DVC members than to add them. So let's say they decide to start renovating BWV, BCV, OKW (2042), BRV, HH, and VB in 2042, just selling new contracts, with no significant incentives to retain existing DVC members. The new DVC members buying in at that time would just be replacing existing members. It's not a net gain for Disney. They want to *add* members, not replace them. I'm telling you, Disney will come up with a plan to keep as many DVC members as possible when 2042 approaches and that plan won't be "well, I guess you'll just have to buy back in at the rack rate."

And I'm not smart enough to have figured it all out, but I have a very strong feeling these new resale restrictions have something to do with DVC's plans for 2042.

 

[TexasChick123]

It's not the same. There's a reason why Disney keeps building DVC resorts and not just adding cash rooms. DVC members come more often, buy annual passes, and spend a lot of money. It makes less sense for Disney to *replace* DVC members than to add them. So let's say they decide to start renovating BWV, BCV, OKW (2042), BRV, HH, and VB in 2042, just selling new contracts, with no significant incentives to retain existing DVC members. The new DVC members buying in at that time would just be replacing existing members. It's not a net gain for Disney. They want to *add* members, not replace them. I'm telling you, Disney will come up with a plan to keep as many DVC members as possible when 2042 approaches and that plan won't be "well, I guess you'll just have to buy back in at the rack rate."

And I'm not smart enough to have figured it all out, but I have a very strong feeling these new resale restrictions have something to do with DVC's plans for 2042.

Again, there is a large part of this equation that people keep missing. A lot of members have no desire to renew their 2042 points because of their age. If you are in your 50s now, for example, and the points expire in a little over 20 years, then you’ll be in your 70s when they expire. Why would you buy a 50 year contract?!? I know some will chime in about buying it for their kids, but most people in their 70s are looking to cut spending and not increase it. If your kids are in their 40s and 50s and want DVC, they will hopefully be in the financial position to buy it for themselves by that age. If they are not, then saddling them with MFs doesn’t make a ton of sense. Also, while I know there are members in their 70s and 80s who buy DVC, most members are selling rather than buying at those ages if they’re doing any sort of transaction. The resale brokers I’ve worked with have all said this.

Also, they aren’t just “replacing members” on the same terms. The new prices will be significantly higher than when those resorts went on sale as will the point requirements for rooms. Disney will be bringing in more money with every sale. If the previous members want to buy in at the new prices, then let them. If they don’t, then there is another buyer waiting right behind them.

 

[Pooh12863]

It's not the same. There's a reason why Disney keeps building DVC resorts and not just adding cash rooms. DVC members come more often, buy annual passes, and spend a lot of money. It makes less sense for Disney to *replace* DVC members than to add them. So let's say they decide to start renovating BWV, BCV, OKW (2042), BRV, HH, and VB in 2042, just selling new contracts, with no significant incentives to retain existing DVC members. The new DVC members buying in at that time would just be replacing existing members. It's not a net gain for Disney. They want to *add* members, not replace them. I'm telling you, Disney will come up with a plan to keep as many DVC members as possible when 2042 approaches and that plan won't be "well, I guess you'll just have to buy back in at the rack rate."

And I'm not smart enough to have figured it all out, but I have a very strong feeling these new resale restrictions have something to do with DVC's plans for 2042.

It will be a net gain when they can sell something a second time at future prices, the infrastructure is there they just need to refresh it to new, and don't expect the chump change point charts that now exist at BWV, BCV, ect.

 

[CraigInPA]

It's not the same. There's a reason why Disney keeps building DVC resorts and not just adding cash rooms. DVC members come more often, buy annual passes, and spend a lot of money. It makes less sense for Disney to *replace* DVC members than to add them. So let's say they decide to start renovating BWV, BCV, OKW (2042), BRV, HH, and VB in 2042, just selling new contracts, with no significant incentives to retain existing DVC members. The new DVC members buying in at that time would just be replacing existing members. It's not a net gain for Disney. They want to *add* members, not replace them. I'm telling you, Disney will come up with a plan to keep as many DVC members as possible when 2042 approaches and that plan won't be "well, I guess you'll just have to buy back in at the rack rate."

The other thing that DVC rooms have that cash rooms don't have is that DVC members pay for all the maintenance of the rooms and grounds and infrastructure whether the rooms are in use or not. Imagine if Disney built a resort and it was very under utilized. The cost to maintain it would be out of proportion to its revenue. This is why DVC has the treehouses now, and why they are no longer a Disney resort.

DVC will change the point charts on the 2042 resorts when they expire. Count on that. By changing the point charts, they will be able to sell more points at the resort. That should provide them the leeway to offer a two tier pricing model, one for current members at that resort, and one for everyone else. For those owners who want to buy another 50 years, they can get a discount. I fully expect that the number of existing owners who want to continue, once they see the new point charts and the new pricing (even with a generous discount), will be small.

 

[Brianstl]

I would argue that changing the point chart won't make then anymore money. One of the main reasons BCV and BWV sell at a premium because you get more for your point. Changing the point chart means selling at prices more similar to Riviera than the $235 they are currently charging for direct at BCV.

 

[crvetter]

I would argue that changing the point chart won't make then anymore money. One of the main reasons BCV and BWV sell at a premium because you get more for your point. Changing the point chart means selling at prices more similar to Riviera than the $235 they are currently charging for direct at BCV.

Agreed changing the point charts and upping them is nothing more than a marketing ploy, IMO. They get to drop the price per point to make it easier to swallow and still meet their entire intended target (and MF per point are artificially deflated). CCV they went a different route with the cabins because the regular rooms had to maintain BRV point charts (thus create over-inflated cabins). Also changing the point chart has the benefit of balancing demand at 7 months to a tiny degree (but that is for another thread).

 

[Disney_Bliss]

I do not know about other properties (although I cannot see future rule implementations being applied to only certain locations and not all DVC), but if you have ever tried to book at BCV/BWV, they are very popular (even more popular than Theme Park view BLT and Savannah AKV). Look at the calendars 7 months out - even 2BR rooms at BCV/BWV are gone and most other properties have availability.

Someone mentioned the economy driving the decisions - right on. Disney seems to be swimming in resort revenues lately, and if that trend continues, there would be no reason to extend owners when they may have other, more profitable options. Ultimately, they are a business and while they want DVC guests to be happy, it must be in line with maximizing revenue.

 

[Disney_Bliss]

Not going to WDW in Robot Exoskeletons .

Would those qualify for ECV access to the rides? I'm down for that at 73 years of age in 2042. HA HA HA

 

[jerseyduke]

I would argue that changing the point chart won't make then anymore money. One of the main reasons BCV and BWV sell at a premium because you get more for your point. Changing the point chart means selling at prices more similar to Riviera than the $235 they are currently charging for direct at BCV.

Agreed, changing the point chart wont make them any more money. People buying do not think about MFs by and large. They want to know how much 1 week of magic a year for the next 50 years is going to cost them. So its points needed X price per point. Thats it. It is what the market will bear.

Your points do go further at older resorts such as BC and BW, but 'getting more' can be somewhat a matter of perspective - depending on how important the room is to you.
Admittedly, I stay in studios. I love the beach club. I have only stayed at the boardwalk once so do not have enough to form an opinion - certainly can not knock it that I do know.
But, at least when it comes to studios - the ones at VGF and Poly blow away the others to me. The split bathroom being HUGE, so to me they should be more points. Now, as to whether or not that is worth a premium, that's up to the individual.

I also own at BR, and again, you have this cramped bathroom that looks basically the same as the bathroom at a MOD (much like BC)

 

[Pooh12863]

Location, location, location.

 

[treygn]

Also, they aren’t just “replacing members” on the same terms. The new prices will be significantly higher than when those resorts went on sale as will the point requirements for rooms. Disney will be bringing in more money with every sale. If the previous members want to buy in at the new prices, then let them. If they don’t, then there is another buyer waiting right behind them.

Not that many buyers. We're talking six resorts with 2042 end dates...that would be more than 2,000 units all hitting the market at the same time.

 

[Brianstl]

Not that many buyers. We're talking six resorts with 2042 end dates...that would be more than 2,000 units all hitting the market at the same time.

And the vast majority of those 2042 owners will be older and have no interest in signing on for 50 years.

 

[RAD]

DW and I will be 90 when 2042 hits, no way would we spend any more money to buy again or even extend the contract.

 

[dd08]

LOL - i'm the of the mindset that I wished my contracts ended at 2042. Not that I don't love my home resorts and enjoy my stays, but because when our AKV deed is done I will likely be gone and my wife in her late 70's and when our VGF deed is done I will definitely be gone and my wife in her mid-80s.

 

[The Prophet]

We know what will happen at the end.
However, what will happen in the months leading up to 1/31/2042 is unknown

For example will folks who own at Copper Creek be permitted to book at Beach Club/Boardwalk 7 months prior to this date, or will there be restrictions?
What about Old Key West? They need to keep all (or part) of the resort operational past 2042.

Stay tuned ....

 

[Noodlez]

We know what will happen at the end.

I actually don’t. Could you tell me please?

 

[crvetter]

I actually don’t. Could you tell me please?

I believe the comment was those resorts (BCV, BWV, BRV, VB, HHI) would no longer "exist" in DVC and would be either closed or reopened as "new" DVC resorts.

 

[Noodlez]

I believe the comment was those resorts (BCV, BWV, BRV, VB, HHI) would no longer "exist" in DVC and would be either closed or reopened as "new" DVC resorts.

As the owner at one of those I’d love to know those things though. Most people think they’re unlikely to extend another resort (although this isn’t actually known), but if they reopen as new do current owners get a reduction? Will there be a ‘new’ resort to buy into, or will it be knocked down? They may no longer exist, but I’m sure they want to do something for all of those loyal customers, otherwise they’re turning away people that are quite happy to keep giving them money.

I’m actually really curious what will happen.