Dean Marino
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Jun 3, 2015
.
Last edited:
If you are equating reasonable investing with gambling, that is an absurd position IMO.Well, we don't do stocks - or go to Reno . One day - a person can do well. Next day? All gone... .
If you are equating reasonable investing with gambling, that is an absurd position IMO.
The info I've seen suggests that those who jump in and out do worse even if they are out some of the worst times because they miss the best times. I would consider 5%, even after taxes, a poor return personally.I was lucky enough to have pulled most of my purchase from a position in the Vanguard Wellesley Fund. I saw luckily because it grew 5% annually, plus dividends, before I sold, but only grew .5% this past year. I'll have to keep an eye on it over the next 42 years, though, as long as I keep my BLT contract, knowing that I could have allowed that money to easily grow instead of just taking annual trips to Disney World.
Holding money in these sorts of index funds is very low risk, and a great way to let your money grow. Not at all speculating and gambling.
That's only helpful if you actually sell at that level. It's not the sky's falling but your position is simply the best case scenario and even then, to expect a similar increase over the next 10 years would be unheard of given the specifics of the situation. I bought BWV at $54, enough below the then ROFR line that another broker called DVC to try to figure out why it went through. We have other RTU experiences in the timeshare world and the ROFR has an affect on value well before the end. At some point BEFORE the end, it will likely not even be able to sell, much less get anything back (maybe 3-5 years out). Riviera will likely have a negative impact on the values of BWV & BCV but I suspect it'll be relatively small. The market was up almost 20% last year and is about zero this year, things ebb and flow. DVC will likely track the economy but in an exaggerated way just like all resort property does. in 2009 one could buy FL panhandle property in many cases for 15-20 cents on the dollar compared to previous values. Ultimately it doesn't matter if you don't sell and truly can afford it though my definition of being able to afford it would include being able to throw it away and not have a major impact on one financially speaking.I still say "the sky is falling" people are funny. People talk on here "a recession" will occur. Probably so... When? Who knows? But, the fact remains, when I bought my BWV for $65/point 19 years ago, I would never had dreamed a "timeshare" would double in price to $120-130/point NOW!!! That is a 95% return rate on my "investment".. YES, I know it is not an investment, but a "timeshare".. But that is a 5% increase/year.. Not stock or mutual fund rates, but I feel it is good for a "timeshare".. So, my 15-20 trips to Disney over the years, and I could sell it now for double the price-- Priceless!!!!!
Now, when the end date comes (2042), THAT is a different story. So to those thinking of buying CCV or the new Rivera comes online, I have this strange feeling in 1-2 short years, we will be talking about $200/point!!!!! Just think in 5 years or 10 years what will the price/point be?? $250-270/point! WHO would have ever thought that 10 years ago??? Not me!
So, if I ever sell say 300 points- 300x$125/point=$37500. Purchased in 1999- $18850.. Pocket $18650.. PLUS- 15 trips at $4000/week=$60000. (rough estimate of a 2BR). So, For $18850 original cost I made (counting vacations and selling timeshare)---$78650. NOW, this does not include financing or commission on the sale of the "timeshare".. So, factoring those in roughly- $3650 (commission) and financing ($6000) I am up $69,000.....
The info I've seen suggests that those who jump in and out do worse even if they are out some of the worst times because they miss the best times. I would consider 5%, even after taxes, a poor return personally.
That's only helpful if you actually sell at that level. It's not the sky's falling but your position is simply the best case scenario and even then, to expect a similar increase over the next 10 years would be unheard of given the specifics of the situation. I bought BWV at $54, enough below the then ROFR line that another broker called DVC to try to figure out why it went through. We have other RTU experiences in the timeshare world and the ROFR has an affect on value well before the end. At some point BEFORE the end, it will likely not even be able to sell, much less get anything back (maybe 3-5 years out). Riviera will likely have a negative impact on the values of BWV & BCV but I suspect it'll be relatively small. The market was up almost 20% last year and is about zero this year, things ebb and flow. DVC will likely track the economy but in an exaggerated way just like all resort property does. in 2009 one could buy FL panhandle property in many cases for 15-20 cents on the dollar compared to previous values. Ultimately it doesn't matter if you don't sell and truly can afford it though my definition of being able to afford it would include being able to throw it away and not have a major impact on one financially speaking.
When we bought our first contract I distinctly remember our guide stating that "You're paying for your vacations in advance." I actually think the benefit of ownership is much more than that, but I appreciated that they weren't over hyping the deal. Had we not bought our DVC points I feel like we'd have ended up spending as much or more for moderate or value accomodations. So I won't do the math, but I can say that it was definitely the right choice for us.