DVC worth it over Value Resorts?

[gharter]

Do you remember where you found the spreadsheet I'd like to look into that

https://www.mouseplanet.com/assets/DVC_Point_Analysis.xls

It's not perfect, but takes a lot of factors into account. You can also put in the average cost of the room you normally stay at to see how the cost change.

 

[msb578]

Family of 5 here.

I was very interested. But the 1-bedroom analysis seemed to be the worst value comparison of all.

If we could fit in a studio, I'd still be thinking about DVC. But I decided to drop the idea.

Edit: Sorry- I thought you would have 5

 

[gharter]

It all really depends on where you like to stay. DVC compared to a value resort, dollar wise, is never close. If you compare DVC to a moderate or deluxe resort, it stacks up very well, often much cheaper over time.

 

[davidl81]

From a pure cash stand point I do not think the math will work out well versus a value. I'll give a back on the envelope math example (I am assuming the rack rates on value rooms will go up the same as time value of money for the DVC purchase and dues will increase about 3.5% per year) If you take the time value of money out of it then the math works better for DVC. If you were to fiance the DVC purchase then the math really changes to favor value rooms.

7 nights at saratoga springs studio in choice season (2nd lowest time of the year) =104 points. Resale at SSR is $85 a point.
Purchase cost is $8840. Yearly fees = $5.43 per point =$564 per year (every year till the contract ends and they will go up every year)

7 Nights at All stars for Oct 1-8 (7 nights)=$951 including tax

Being super simple about it this math would take you 70 years to break even since the dues increase in price over time.

You could also look at it without putting into account time value of money. If you do this and assume dues will increase at the same rate that the rack room rate will increase your math works out better. Breakeven will be closer to 20 years.

You could just not look at anything increasing at all and be super simple (also incorrect) and say that the rack rate is $951 a week, dues are $564 a year so my "savings" is $387 a year. $8840/$357 = 22.3 years for breakeven.

Any way on a cash level DVC cannot compare to a value even on a resale level. That being said we love our DVC and we take a lot of vacations with our family and friends now in 2 bed rooms that we never would have done if we were paying cash price for the rooms. The value for DVC is much better when you compare it to deluxe villas that run $1000 a night.

I like your idea about renting for one trip. If you can rent 7 nights at saratoga as an example that cost would be about $1350 or so depending on the rental rate per point. You can then see if the DVC setup feels like it is worth it to you over the value rooms. If you don't think it was worth it then you are only really out the $400 difference or so between a value room and the rental cost as opposed to owing a $9000 timeshare.

 

[Dean]

Family of 5 here.

I was very interested. But the 1-bedroom analysis seemed to be the worst value comparison of all.

If we could fit in a studio, I'd still be thinking about DVC. But I decided to drop the idea.

Edit: Sorry- I thought you would have 5

That and the 3 BR. As the kids age a 2BR is a great choice and is a better value, esp once one gets to the point of needing 2 hotel rooms anyway which should happen as they age for all groups but if they are not all the same gender, will happen even earlier. IMO the differential for both the 1 BR and 3 BR are off compared to what they should be but they are what they are.

 

[DisneyRegulars]

You can play all day on spreadsheets and eventually come up with a way to make a value resort comparable to DVC. I know, I've created them, time value of money and all. The truth is, DVC will have you spending more at Disney in the long run, but your vacations will be in much nicer accommodations and will become much more relaxing. We exclusively stayed in values prior to joining DVC.

After having joined DVC I am so happy we did. We love the resorts, but more importantly, we love how it has changed the way we visit Disney. Our vacations are much more relaxing and fun, there's something that changes when you know you'll be back.

I would look into DVC. It won't save you money, but it's pretty amazing and worth investigating.

 

[jaydubjw24]

I understand that it's not going to save us a ton of money. And I understand we get a way nicer accommodation I feel like it's def worth looking into if we are going to continue to go every year like we have been for 3 years now

 

[mustinjourney]

don't forget that you can also resell your contract. That's one thing a lot of these simple formulas don't take into account.

Yes, there's a chance that the whole market tanks and the resale market will suck, but what is the likelihood that occurs at the same time you're considering selling?

For example, if an initial purchase price of $10,000 saves you $400 a year in accommodations. The break even isn't 10,000/400. You really have to look at it as an investment in which you spend $10,000 in year 0, and then each year it returns $400 of savings...and then in year 10 or 15 or whatever year you think you'll sell it, you get your $10,000 investment back. You could also discount the resale at the end if you want to be conservative. And if you really want to get complicated, you can do a discount factor taking into account opportunity costs (e.g., time value of money).

 

[Madame]

Yes, there's a chance that the whole market tanks and the resale market will suck, but what is the likelihood that occurs at the same time you're considering selling?

Higher than you'd think. It's what happened after the 2008 recession. Economy tanks, people lose their jobs, pensions, you name it. They're going to offload their timeshare along with many others. Market becomes saturated price bottoms out.

 

[lovin'fl]

jaydub...one selling point is that you can get a 1BR or 2BR villa that has a master bedroom where you can shut the door between you and the kids. That's why we bought. We had 3 little kids and stayed at POR. All of us in 1 regular hotel room ...the thought of a villa where we, adults, could have separate space from the kiddos was

Bonus was we also get a W/D so we can pack lighter and a full kitchen if we want to make a meal to save money (though truth be told, we have never made anything but breakfast stuff in the 10 years we've owned DVC).

 

[Dean]

don't forget that you can also resell your contract. That's one thing a lot of these simple formulas don't take into account.

Yes, there's a chance that the whole market tanks and the resale market will suck, but what is the likelihood that occurs at the same time you're considering selling?

For example, if an initial purchase price of $10,000 saves you $400 a year in accommodations. The break even isn't 10,000/400. You really have to look at it as an investment in which you spend $10,000 in year 0, and then each year it returns $400 of savings...and then in year 10 or 15 or whatever year you think you'll sell it, you get your $10,000 investment back. You could also discount the resale at the end if you want to be conservative. And if you really want to get complicated, you can do a discount factor taking into account opportunity costs (e.g., time value of money).

They do give you similar information as a buy and sell later analysis. If the decline were proportionate to the years remaining and there were no dollars lost in closing, any such analysis should be the same. But we don't know what the future resale market will do, the reality is that dues are FAR more predictable than resale options. The more aggressive and effective DVC gets with resale limitations the lower the resale values will go in addition to semi independent factors such as the nature of WDW, the economy, feasibly of air travel and the like. One truly many not be able to sell in 10-15 yrs.

Personally I think one must consider the TVM in some way but also the fact one would spend some of that money over time on a replacement vacation if they didn't own DVC. A simple formula that reflects the more complicated underlying issue is to assume 3.5-4% income on ALL the funds used compounded. On the other side, the only reasonable cost comparisons looking at $$$ are what one would have spent on cash either non DVC or renting DVC from a member. I think assuming one gets the initial investment back in total is an extremely optimistic position going forward even if one buys resale. In addition I hold the position that timeshares are far more about psychology than $$$ and that very often one just spends extra money because they see it as extra money since they look at DVC as already paid for in some way. Thus I doubt DVC saves essentially any member money no matter how good the math looks on paper.

 

[PlutoFan10]

Along with the great information provided in previous posts, remember that with some of the DVC resorts, you can be walking distance from one or more parks, be on the monorail loop, or be a boat ride away from a park. We also used our points at Aulani, which was fantastic. Getting spoiled after cash stays at a 1Br Villa sold us on DVC.

 

[Minniesgal]

For us it was worth it over a hotel room as it allowed us to get a 2 bedroom Villa for our family of 5. Having a separate sleeping space for kids and adults changed our trips for the better. We generally stay Kidani or BLT so this gives us 3 bathrooms which is fantastic. We like having the kitchen and find the laundry essential. We also like having a separate space to eat in the room we tend to do a few take away dinners. I can see us doing more and more as we go forward as our latest trip we found disney dining so poor there isn't much we would go back to.

Did we save money compared to a value no! but it bought us the holidays we wanted.

I think if you are happy with a family in a value room DVC is probably not for you. Might be worth running the number against 2 value room though as the kids get older 1 value room will end up being too small.

 

[suebeelin]

Higher than you'd think. It's what happened after the 2008 recession. Economy tanks, people lose their jobs, pensions, you name it. They're going to offload their timeshare along with many others. Market becomes saturated price bottoms out.

Yes but the offloading meant that BLT was $75-85 (then being sold for $100-120), AKL was $60-65 ($100-120 direct), bwv/bcv at $55-70 (unsure but I think direct was $90?) and SSR and Okw was $40-50. I don't remember VWL.

I may be a little off on my figures but that's my recollection of 2011-2012 resale prices, which I consider the market bottom. Dvc still held its value pretty well even if ppl were "unloading". Not sure about the direct prices then... But they were under $120.

If the market truly tanks and ppl start giving away dvc properties for free, I, for one, will be first in line.

 

[Madame]

Yes but the offloading meant that BLT was $75-85 (then being sold for $100-120), AKL was $60-65 ($100-120 direct), bwv/bcv at $55-70 (unsure but I think direct was $90?) and SSR and Okw was $40-50. I don't remember VWL.

I may be a little off on my figures but that's my recollection of 2011-2012 resale prices, which I consider the market bottom. Dvc still held its value pretty well even if ppl were "unloading". Not sure about the direct prices then... But they were under $120.

If the market truly tanks and ppl start giving away dvc properties for free, I, for one, will be first in line.

Absolutely. One person's loss is another's gain. 'Tanking' is also very subjective & people have different risk tolerance. I was responding specifically to this bit...

Yes, there's a chance that the whole market tanks and the resale market will suck, but what is the likelihood that occurs at the same time you're considering selling?

Perhaps teaching my 10th graders about the cause and effects of the Great Depression & the fact that our area was in recession long before the 2008 calamity colours my views, but buying any timeshare with the mentality that if the market tanks I'll just ride it out b/c I would never sell low, is making assumptions about your own financial viability that I don't think I'd make.

Then again I do have a tendancy to catastrophize. Personally I went into DVC thinking that the money we spent is gone, not that I'd be able to recoup all or most through resale.

 

[Disney Dad ADL]

That and the 3 BR. As the kids age a 2BR is a great choice and is a better value, esp once one gets to the point of needing 2 hotel rooms anyway which should happen as they age for all groups but if they are not all the same gender, will happen even earlier. IMO the differential for both the 1 BR and 3 BR are off compared to what they should be but they are what they are.

It seems to me from a points basis the 1 BR seems to be priced reasonably. I've only looked at a couple resorts, but in general the 1 BR seem to be twice the size or more than a studio, but in terms of points usually go for 2x (or fewer) the number of points of a studio.

I have not looked at the rack rates of 1 bedrooms, so maybe you have gone by that analysis?

 

[mustinjourney]

It seems to me from a points basis the 1 BR seems to be priced reasonably. I've only looked at a couple resorts, but in general the 1 BR seem to be twice the size or more than a studio, but in terms of points usually go for 2x (or fewer) the number of points of a studio.

I have not looked at the rack rates of 1 bedrooms, so maybe you have gone by that analysis?

when I was looking at booking cash rate earlier this year, 1 BR seemed to be about 50-67% more than a studio. It was $600 for GF studio and ~$1000 for a 1 BR -- and BLT was $400 for studio and about $600 for a 1 BR.

 

[Dean]

It seems to me from a points basis the 1 BR seems to be priced reasonably. I've only looked at a couple resorts, but in general the 1 BR seem to be twice the size or more than a studio, but in terms of points usually go for 2x (or fewer) the number of points of a studio.

I have not looked at the rack rates of 1 bedrooms, so maybe you have gone by that analysis?

We'll have to disagree, there's more than just square footage including both the amenitis of the room (low for a DVC studio) and the sleeping capacity, genrally around the same as the 1 BR (4 vs 4 or 5). When I compare to other timeshares there generally is a much smaller differential. Obviously one has to take into account the underlying size and amenities of each component. I'd suggest you do compare to rack rates such as http://www.mousesavers.com/2016-disney-world-room-rates-season-dates . I think you'll find the difference consistently less than 50% for most items, generally more around 40%. I'd say that and the Marriott up the road that has a similar room layout are perfect comparisons and the difference there is in the 33% range.

 

[zavandor]

Do you want to convince your wife? Go and eat at Boma at Animal Kingdom Lodge during your next trip, after entering the lobby tell her: "We could be staying here next time, with DVC".

 

[jaydubjw24]

Do you want to convince your wife? Go and eat at Boma at Animal Kingdom Lodge during your next trip, after entering the lobby tell her: "We could be staying here next time, with DVC".

Great idea!!!!