Early November Crowd Confusion

[mouserrificmom]

I am trying to reconcile my research with my experience to see what it actually going on in November. I have been trying, without luck, to change our resort for months but there is nothing LITERALLY nothing available (Dates are 11/2 - 11/8)......have been worried crowds would be completely crazy, but have been watching Touring Plans and most days in our window are at CL 4s. Our dining window opened this morning, and I had no trouble at all getting all the reservations we wanted, including Space and 'Ohana and I saw options for other things I wasn't looking for but I know are hard to snag, like Ogas, Beaches and Cream, Be Our Guest etc. It just doesn't add up in my mind.......what is REALLY going on in early November?

 

[lorilclevelandrn]

Disney Wine and Dine Half Marathon weekend begins 11/4.

 

[T.G.I.Friday]

We are going that time as well, and I think the lack of resort rooms is because our trips overlap the long weekend race crowds and the start of Jersey week. There are few open rooms that aren’t booked for at least one of those events.

 

[Narcoossee11]

Food and wine
Races
Christmas has started
GREAT weather , finally some cool temperatures
School holidays

 

[snikki]

I’ve been that week before and the first weekend is booked for Wine and Dine but I didn’t find the crowds in the parks to be crazy.

Jersey week follows and schools are closed Thursday and Friday of that week. Some schools also close on Election Day. I did feel crowds getting heavier towards the end of that week (by Thursday) but nothing insane. But Saturday and Sunday, which will be Veterans Day weekend, were completely insane at Epcot. Food and wine will also be close to ending so it mashed Epcot busier. All other parks felt fine to me.

I expect the same this year. We will be there 11/3-11/12.

 

[DVC Sue]

Some times of year seem like they should be easy to book. I think Disney purposely schedules events for this time to increase attendance and sales.

 

[savvy101787]

We went 11/6-11/12 in 2019 (last November before Covid) and it was the most crowded I’ve ever seen the parks. My sister and brother-in-law are NJ teachers so we were part of the NJ week but, wow, I was not expecting those crowds.

 

[CarolynFH]

Some times of year seem like they should be easy to book. I think Disney purposely schedules events for this time to increase attendance and sales.

Exactly!

 

[summerlyangel]

Honestly? I don't think all of the resorts are fully open and staffed at top capacity yet. I've been 5 times in the past year, 2 onsite at pop century, the others offsite, most recently a month ago. The parks are not nearly as crowded as what we experienced pre 2020, and pop century was the same. Getting rooms there took months of searching and then, bam, was able to get one right before the trips. The food court and lines were not nearly as full, the pools were comparatively empty, bus lines, etc, compared to our pre 2020 trips. The lines for the bathrooms in the parks (frequent bathroom flier, here, lol) were much lower than they used to be, as were the lines at food stands. We had no trouble getting on rides early in the morning or later in the evening. The only thing that still seems crazy crowded to me is waiting for the fireworks in MK.

I'm looking now for the beginning of dec and seeing nothing for pop. It was the same last year, then rooms popped up in the couple of weeks before our trip. I'll keep looking because I'm sure the same thing will happen again.

 

[afan]

Honestly? I don't think all of the resorts are fully open and staffed at top capacity yet. I've been 5 times in the past year, 2 onsite at pop century, the others offsite, most recently a month ago. The parks are not nearly as crowded as what we experienced pre 2020, and pop century was the same. Getting rooms there took months of searching and then, bam, was able to get one right before the trips. The food court and lines were not nearly as full, the pools were comparatively empty, bus lines, etc, compared to our pre 2020 trips. The lines for the bathrooms in the parks (frequent bathroom flier, here, lol) were much lower than they used to be, as were the lines at food stands. We had no trouble getting on rides early in the morning or later in the evening. The only thing that still seems crazy crowded to me is waiting for the fireworks in MK.

I'm looking now for the beginning of dec and seeing nothing for pop. It was the same last year, then rooms popped up in the couple of weeks before our trip. I'll keep looking because I'm sure the same thing will happen again.

People will cancel trips before their 30 day payment is due. They aren't holding anything back.

 

[mouserrificmom]

Thanks for all the replies, I am aware of all the events that are happening at the time - what is odd to me is that the events and the booked hotels suggest massive crowds, but dining availabilities and TP crowd calendars suggest that it will be quiet.....I've never seen such a discrepancy.

 

[summerlyangel]

Perhaps they are not holding anything back. All I know is that the crowds on my last 5 trips were not nearly what they were pre 2020. I've had no trouble getting the tours and dining I wanted. None of the new disney makes any sense to me, that is for sure.

 

[2vets]

It is gonna be what it is. We are there the first weekend of Nov quite often (we often have a conference in Orlando the week leading up to that weekend), and it tends to be crowded in feel, but manageable in the parks.

Anyhoo - we have a really late flight out on 11/7, and I decided I wanted to add that night to our res in case anything went wrong…and also because I want to be able to relax and shower beforehand. Not financially smart, but hey, that’s WDW in a nutshell . After months of being unable to book that night, something finally opened today. Maybe people are starting to cancel..?

 

[gottalovepluto]

I am trying to reconcile my research with my experience to see what it actually going on in November. I have been trying, without luck, to change our resort for months but there is nothing LITERALLY nothing available (Dates are 11/2 - 11/8)......have been worried crowds would be completely crazy, but have been watching Touring Plans and most days in our window are at CL 4s. Our dining window opened this morning, and I had no trouble at all getting all the reservations we wanted, including Space and 'Ohana and I saw options for other things I wasn't looking for but I know are hard to snag, like Ogas, Beaches and Cream, Be Our Guest etc. It just doesn't add up in my mind.......what is REALLY going on in early November?

Throw your TP prediction out the window- and shame on them, this is historically predictable to any of us who travel that time of year. F&W marathon 11/3-11/6. Crazy for hotels. Jersey Week starts 11/7 so it really starts 11/5. I didn’t appreciate how much that inflated crowds until I went the week after Jersey week and was like “woah. Where did the crowds go?”.

So get ready, it will be crowded and it will not be a “4”. That said it won’t be Xmas-New Years.

As far as dining, you have a lead on those booking for Jersey week because your trip starts sooner.

 

[mouserrificmom]

Throw your TP prediction out the window- and shame on them, this is historically predictable to any of us who travel that time of year. F&W marathon 11/3-11/6. Crazy for hotels. Jersey Week starts 11/7 so it really starts 11/5. I didn’t appreciate how much that inflated crowds until I went the week after Jersey week and was like “woah. Where did the crowds go?”.

So get ready, it will be crowded and it will not be a “4”. That said it won’t be Xmas-New Years.

As far as dining, you have a lead on those booking for Jersey week because your trip starts sooner.

Thank you, very insightful and a perspective I hadn't thought of . . . we have been nearly every month of the year, January and November are the only months we haven't seen at Disney. We had very little control over WHEN this trip would be based on work and school schedules, so it is what it is. Always a planner, I am trying to navigate through all the more recent changes with Genie Plus (our last trip was August 2021)

Thanks for the insight, it is really appreciated.

 

[focusondisney]

I saw options for other things I wasn't looking for but I know are hard to snag, like Ogas, Beaches and Cream, Be Our Guest etc. It just doesn't add up in my mind.......what is REALLY going on in early November?

I don’t think those 3 are as hard to get anymore. We were here in late April to early May & just arrived yesterday. BOG & Olga’s are pretty much available for 60 day bookings. And all 3 have shown up frequently when I’ve been looking to change things around.

 

[_19disnA]

Throw your TP prediction out the window- and shame on them, this is historically predictable to any of us who travel that time of year. F&W marathon 11/3-11/6. Crazy for hotels. Jersey Week starts 11/7 so it really starts 11/5. I didn’t appreciate how much that inflated crowds until I went the week after Jersey week and was like “woah. Where did the crowds go?”.

I agree, this subject comes up a lot here. No 3rd party has any magical crystal ball to let them predict attendance months in advance. It is likely as accurate as trying to predict if it will rain on 11/3. All of those predictions are likely based on historical data and perhaps on known holidays/special events. You can probably create your own 'forecast' by considering the items others have mentioned previously. I would never choose when to go to Disney based on TP's 'crowd calendar' forecasts.

 

[bdrex28]

Thanks for all the replies, I am aware of all the events that are happening at the time - what is odd to me is that the events and the booked hotels suggest massive crowds, but dining availabilities and TP crowd calendars suggest that it will be quiet.....I've never seen such a discrepancy.

Perhaps the staffing issues is causing them to staff the parks more than the hotels. Thus you're seeing a more limited room availability but dining and park seem to be more open. I think if I were Disney and I had to choose, that's how I'd do it. especially since you get people that stay off site and still come to the park. Plus Cast members perhaps easier to staff at this time then the housekeeping cast? Just a guess.

 

[Eastern]

Throw your TP prediction out the window- and shame on them, this is historically predictable to any of us who travel that time of year. F&W marathon 11/3-11/6. Crazy for hotels. Jersey Week starts 11/7 so it really starts 11/5. I didn’t appreciate how much that inflated crowds until I went the week after Jersey week and was like “woah. Where did the crowds go?”.

So get ready, it will be crowded and it will not be a “4”. That said it won’t be Xmas-New Years.

As far as dining, you have a lead on those booking for Jersey week because your trip starts sooner.

In my area of Jersey everyone with school kids goes to Florida this week; lots go to Disney. Restaurants and roads are very uncrowded here during this week! I love it because I don't go to Disney that week anymore.

 

[meremac]

I wouldn't pay attention to TP predictions ~ they just aren't that accurate IMO. That week has had very limited resort availability for awhile now, as it's quite popular (especially toward the end of your dates). As far as dining reservations go, I think you're finding nice availability for a few reasons:

1) You had the benefit of getting a bit of a jump start on your dining reservations because you're arriving earlier than most of the marathon and Jersey Week crowds.

2) The specific restaurants you mentioned aren't quite as difficult to get as they used to be, with the possible exception of B & C.

3) This is completely anecdotal so take it with a grain of salt, but I make dining reservations almost daily for clients and I've recently noticed that availability seems a bit better across the board. I've found myself wondering lately if restaurant staffing issues are starting to course correct and Disney is able to open up more reservations at certain places? Again, though, it's just a theory.