I would bet the next set of incentives will keep the price more or less the same. Even if the price per point goes up, the incentives have been getting better to essentially negate the price per point increases. For instance, when I purchased earlier this year the price per point at RIV (or is it RVA?) was $188. For 250 pts, incentives brought it to about $168 pp.
So even if it goes up, it seems to go up only slightly every time an incentive period ends (currently $170 per point for 200 pts for new members). I would roll the dice, buy resale then direct, and even if it goes up a bit, the existing member price will likely still be less than the $170 pp you could get right now as new members.