Fall Incentives

[Sandisw]

While I agree in part with this, I think that a big portion of DVC's appeal is that if you "had to get out" for whatever reason, having a reasonable resale market gives you insurance in form of an exit strategy. If DVC were like numerous other timeshares that lose a large portion of your value, then I think a lot of people would have much more hesitancy upon purchase.

That said, if you don't have to have a major capital influx at some point, you could just rent points (at a profit, which granted, is taxable), which is another added dimension to DVC that many other timeshares just don't have.

It certainly is a nice feature, but i just think it’s unwise to buy needing any level of return. We know that it will always be worth more than $0…and I think one would be able to get back at least half for most resorts…especially now that brokers have the entire instant sale option.

It’s the concept that having to sell lower than the purchase price is a big deal…the purchase should be for enjoyment and it’s value and not the amount one can get when they sell.

Even those selling RIV are getting a decent amount of purchase price back, as well having gotten use out of the product, so IMO, is not a loss at all.

 

[Sandisw]

But assumptions about resale value are a very big factor in determining a break even point, or the economics of a purchase decision. If you do the simple calculation (which ignores things like opportunity cost, and inflation):

When do I "break even" if I assume zero resale value and I save $8/point/year vs. rental rates
(the answer may be 15-20 years for a $120-$160/pt upfront purchase)

that's a valid question, but also represents a "worst case" scenario. There's nothing wrong with a conservative calculation but the reality is that you break even much sooner since there is a residual value after 15-20 years, unless it's a 2042 resort.

So that can also lead to flawed decisions... What if someone has a 10 year horizon? Should they not buy? In the extreme (maybe unrealistic) assumption that you recover 100% of your upfront cost after 10 years, then buying becomes a no-brainer. So it certainly makes an impact on the outcome of the decision.

This type of question can also lead to flawed decisions in cases like subsidized vs unsubsidized dues. As a simple example - if you pay $30/pt upfront more for the subsidized contract and the subsidy saves you $3/pt/year you can say "it takes 10 years to break even - that's too long for me, so I'm not buying subsidized". But what if in 10 years, you can still sell the subsidized contract for $30/pt more than the unsubsidized one? Does that impact your choice?

If someone does worst case scenerio and it makes sense, then that is what I mean by not using a resale value amount. That is what we did….it was 10 years…using simple math as things like TVM were not something we cared about…to give it away and end up spending what we would have spent for our cash stays.

If we had to sell before than, then we might “lose” but in those cases. It would mean something more important happened, and our loss on DVC would be the least of our worries.

All resorts that come restricted from now on will see a different level of resale value…but the question is will that reduction be a big deal…right now, RIVs resale value is still, at least IMO, tied to the direct pricing and not so much to it’s restrictions. Some impact? Yes….Major? No

It’s why I believe that DVD may have figured out how to increase direct sales with the incentives and multiple resorts selling at once. They wanted VGF to sell fast, and it did when they got aggressive.

But, VDH didn’t get better ones so they must be content with its sales numbers. RIV is fairly close to the same, so being the lower priced opiton now is going to give them the sales levels they want.

 

[Sandisw]

I saw @pkrieger2287 saying on FB that the incentives for Riviera for fall were better than the ones for summer. Is this the case for 150 pts? With the decrease in welcome home promotion and the drop in price for Magical Beginnings I’m not seeing how this is possible?

I am also not getting it as better for that level, but maybe it is at other one? I have not looked that closely at them…but with MB, the summer incentives were around $168 for 150.

 

[DanCali]

I am also not getting it as better for that level, but maybe it is at other one? I have not looked that closely at them…but with MB, the summer incentives were around $168 for 150.

The new ones are at around $170/pt after 150points, give or take a few pennies at various levels.

 

[crazywig]

If anybody remembers what they paid BLT direct after discounts c2009-2013 it’d be greatly appreciated to share.

We bought in 2009 and I think we paid $96 for BLT after incentives. It may have been 94 but 96 sticks in my head. We did not do MB, I'm not even sure it was offered then (we did do it in 2003 for BWV).

 

[Genie+]

We bought in 2009 and I think we paid $96 for BLT after incentives. It may have been 94 but 96 sticks in my head. We did not do MB, I'm not even sure it was offered then (we did do it in 2003 for BWV).

Thanks so much!

Paying $96pp in 2009 is the equivalent of $137 today in 2023 (Inflation Adjusted). $137 is close to today’s resale value.

Great buy! If you sold today you could’ve gotten 15 years of use and your buy-in money back, essentially using those rooms for near dues cost alone.

Even if we consider the alternative of investing that $96pp at 4% (time value money), it could be worth $166 today. BLT resale today is not hard to get $125, possibly more. So ~$40pp cost to use for 15yrs plus dues. That’s like getting BLT studios the whole time for ~$200/nt in today’s dollars.

I‘d still fine if our VGF works out $300-$400/nt after using 15-20yrs. What I really don’t want is to look back after selling to find we’ve been paying $600+/nt (in today’s $). VGF seems the safer bet here over RIV. While DVC should never be bought with reliance on a future resale value, VGF feels like choosing the strongest horse. We’ll find out when this long race is over

 

[PolyRob]

I saw @pkrieger2287 saying on FB that the incentives for Riviera for fall were better than the ones for summer. Is this the case for 150 pts? With the decrease in welcome home promotion and the drop in price for Magical Beginnings I’m not seeing how this is possible?

Looking at DVC Fan since I do not have the old DVC Explorer charts for Riviera

Summer Incentive (Member Add On)


Fall Incentive (Member Add On)

I believe it's slightly better for smaller points values. 150 points or less couldn't take Welcome Home or Magical Beginnings and they previously received no "free points."

100 points in summer would have been $209.50
((217*100)-750)/100

100 points in fall is $205.00
((217*100)-1200)/100

150 points in summer with $1,500 Welcome Home and $22 MB would have been $167.76
((217*145)-1500-1500-3,300)/150

150 points in fall with $1,000 Welcome Home and $20 MB is $170.33
((217*150)-3000-1000-3,000)/150

Going higher doesn't seem to help...

250 points in summer with $1,500 Welcome Home and $22 MB would have been $165.98
((217*235)-1500-2500-5,500)/250

250 points in fall with $1,000 Welcome Home and $20 MB is $170.00
((217*250)-5750-1000-5,000)/250

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Thanks so much!

Paying $96pp in 2009 is the equivalent of $137 today in 2023 (Inflation Adjusted). $137 is close to today’s resale value.

Great buy! If you sold today you could’ve gotten 15 years of use and your buy-in money back, essentially using those rooms for near dues cost alone.

Even if we consider the alternative of investing that $96pp at 4% (time value money), it could be worth $166 today. BLT resale today is not hard to get $125, possibly more. So ~$40pp cost to use for 15yrs plus dues. That’s like getting BLT studios the whole time for ~$200/nt in today’s dollars.

I‘d still fine if our VGF works out $300-$400/nt after using 15-20yrs. What I really don’t want is to look back after selling to find we’ve been paying $600+/nt (in today’s $). VGF seems the safer bet here over RIV. While DVC should never be bought with reliance on a future resale value, VGF feels like choosing the strongest horse. We’ll find out when this long race is over

We made a similar calculus — even though we personally like Epcot and MGM better than MK (we’re SoCal locals with regular access to DL), it seemed like unrestricted VGF would hold its value better over the next 10-20 years. Also, unless Disney builds a new property or lets GF and MK just completely deteriorate, GF will be the flagship hotel in WDW with a very strong historical brand. While our VGF purchases (1 direct, 1 resale) are definitely a luxury/travel/splurge and not a true investment, when I’m dropping 20-40k on any asset, I am always going to think about relative value and what will likely hold up better over time.

Having said that, if we eventually stay at RIV with our 350 direct points someday and love it enough to stay there 4x a decade, I would definitely consider picking up resale points that were substantially discounted. For now, I won’t consider it having never been there longer than it takes for the Skyliner to pass by on our way from Epcot to DHS.

 

[intamin]

Looking at DVC Fan since I do not have the old DVC Explorer charts for Riviera

Summer Incentive (Member Add On)
View attachment 793941

Fall Incentive (Member Add On)
View attachment 793942
I believe it's slightly better for smaller points values. 150 points or less couldn't take Welcome Home or Magical Beginnings and they previously received no "free points."

100 points in summer would have been $209.50
((217*100)-750)/100

100 points in fall is $205.00
((217*100)-1200)/100

150 points in summer with $1,500 Welcome Home and $22 MB would have been $167.76
((217*145)-1500-1500-3,300)/150

150 points in fall with $1,000 Welcome Home and $20 MB is $170.33
((217*150)-3000-1000-3,000)/150

Going higher doesn't seem to help...

250 points in summer with $1,500 Welcome Home and $22 MB would have been $165.98
((217*235)-1500-2500-5,500)/250

250 points in fall with $1,000 Welcome Home and $20 MB is $170.00
((217*250)-5750-1000-5,000)/250

Thanks for this, unfortunately it seems like the 150+ price point got worse by a few dollars per point but not enough to break the bank compared to how much worse VGF’s cost per point became. I’m still glad I decided to hold off although given RIV’s sales I expected the incentives to go in the other direction. I’ll probably lock in before halloween and see how winter prices go. With the price of OTUP decreasing it makes it more tempting to just keep the points for my own use.

 

[PolyRob]

Thanks for this, unfortunately it seems like the 150+ price point got worse by a few dollars per point but not enough to break the bank compared to how much worse VGF’s cost per point became. I’m still glad I decided to hold off although given RIV’s sales I expected the incentives to go in the other direction. I’ll probably lock in before halloween and see how winter prices go. With the price of OTUP decreasing it makes it more tempting to just keep the points for my own use.

That makes sense! This promotion period is much shorter so maybe DVD will have something up it's sleeve for Q4?

It also gives you time to plan on how you will use or rent those 2022 points if you don't take Magical Beginnings.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Thanks so much!

Paying $96pp in 2009 is the equivalent of $137 today in 2023 (Inflation Adjusted). $137 is close to today’s resale value.

Great buy! If you sold today you could’ve gotten 15 years of use and your buy-in money back, essentially using those rooms for near dues cost alone.

Even if we consider the alternative of investing that $96pp at 4% (time value money), it could be worth $166 today. BLT resale today is not hard to get $125, possibly more. So ~$40pp cost to use for 15yrs plus dues. That’s like getting BLT studios the whole time for ~$200/nt in today’s dollars.

I‘d still fine if our VGF works out $300-$400/nt after using 15-20yrs. What I really don’t want is to look back after selling to find we’ve been paying $600+/nt (in today’s $). VGF seems the safer bet here over RIV. While DVC should never be bought with reliance on a future resale value, VGF feels like choosing the strongest horse. We’ll find out when this long race is over

I love the effort put into the math!

 

[kboo]

Riviera is perfect for your forever resort and with direct benefits. Hopefully they keep up the rooms and don't "dumb down" the restaurant and theming in the future.

We were just at Topolino's a couple of weeks ago, the manager was in the restaurant and visiting tables, and we had a lovely conversation. It just unseated California Grill in our minds for #1 WDW restaurant not named V&A - not because of the service, which was excellent at both places, but because of the food.

As more restricted resorts come on line, those restrictions will become the norm, not the exception.

Exactly, and at that point "the market" won't care so much. Or the restricted contracts are used solely for stays that that resort.

If in 3 or 4 yrs PVB 100pt resale hits $120 we will buy. We really enjoy this resort. The plan is to try Poly2 with our VGF direct points. If we really love it could switch us to 100pts direct, but the price gap will also be crucial in our decision.

Back in 2018 and early 2019 I said I'd get Riviera resale if it settled around $100-105 pp (which was what SSR was around then) because our other resale points were also unrestricted. I was impatient and ended up buying direct and we've had so many lovely trips at Riviera since then (including 2 New Year's Eve trips) that in my mind were worth the "upcharge".

You lost me on this one. I always thought the metric was comparing resale prices against direct pricing to determine relative value. Maybe I'm thinking about it wrong?

I'm not sure if you were asking about the chart that was posted, but even though it has a disclaimer that the direct prices didn't include incentives, so it's not technically misleading, but the incentives put direct prices more in the 160s for VGF and RIV and the % savings on resale suddenly gets a LOT smaller.

Quick! All the resorts get retroactively restricted. You have to unload 4 of your 5 and only stay at the other one from here on out. DVD gives you one minute to decide and they'll buy the other 4 back at full price so that's not a factor. Which one do you keep?

Now most of our points are at VGF so I'd keep it to keep more points ... but if I had the same number at each resort, I'd keep RIV - longest end date and probably our favorite.

I don’t see RIV as that different yet when you look at the actual price people have paid and are paying, based on what I have seen over the years.

Restrictions certainly make it different and shrink the buyer pool, so there is going to be some level of decrease. I guess it comes down to what people define as a major or minor impact.

Let’s assume it had no restrictions. If the average direct selling price has, as I said, been in the $160s, what would we be expecting for resale? 10% discount puts us in the $140s. 20% puts us near the current average. And, there was a time a year ago it was averaging in the $140s..but all resorts are lower now, not just RIV.

Our first VGF resale contract was around 27-39% below direct price, about 4 years after it went on sale, and no incentives offered because it was sold out. Now, Riviera is about 4 years out, still has incentives, and using $117 pp and a direct price of $168 (w incentives) to $217 (w/o incentives) as around 30-46% off. Considering the resort is not sold out and there are strong incentives out there, 30% off 4 years after direct sales started is not really a bad showing. (And I wonder with a more public rental market if it's allowing owners to stave off foreclosures and low-priced sales)

1) Did all original owners have MB, or is that a new thing? If they didn't use MB then they did have an extra year of points, but those are not really worth $22 for most (even if you rented then at that rate, you'd own taxes on the full amount).

MB is a new thing, and at $20-22 pp was a pretty good deal! When we bought direct we could generally choose our UY. When we bought Riviera direct in 2019 we wanted to match our February UY, but Feb Riviera points started in 2020 and we wanted to take a trip in December 2019 (when the resort opened) without borrowing. Of course you still *get* 50 years of points, but I'd rather start with current UY points! So when we bought in the spring of 2019, we got August UY 2019 points. I can't remember the earliest month that you could get 2019 points but they were really pushing December UY (for obvious reasons).

 

[kboo]

If someone does worst case scenario and it makes sense, then that is what I mean by not using a resale value amount. That is what we did….it was 10 years…using simple math as things like TVM were not something we cared about…to give it away and end up spending what we would have spent for our cash stays.

If we had to sell before than, then we might “lose” but in those cases. It would mean something more important happened, and our loss on DVC would be the least of our worries.

All resorts that come restricted from now on will see a different level of resale value…but the question is will that reduction be a big deal…right now, RIVs resale value is still, at least IMO, tied to the direct pricing and not so much to it’s restrictions. Some impact? Yes….Major? No

It’s why I believe that DVD may have figured out how to increase direct sales with the incentives and multiple resorts selling at once. They wanted VGF to sell fast, and it did when they got aggressive.

But, VDH didn’t get better ones so they must be content with its sales numbers. RIV is fairly close to the same, so being the lower priced opiton now is going to give them the sales levels they want.

We looked at it the same way - if we had to sell early, it will be because we are facing much bigger issues.

GF will be the flagship hotel in WDW with a very strong historical brand. While our VGF purchases (1 direct, 1 resale) are definitely a luxury/travel/splurge and not a true investment, when I’m dropping 20-40k on any asset, I am always going to think about relative value and what will likely hold up better over time.

Having said that, if we eventually stay at RIV with our 350 direct points someday and love it enough to stay there 4x a decade, I would definitely consider picking up resale points that were substantially discounted. For now, I won’t consider it having never been there longer than it takes for the Skyliner to pass by on our way from Epcot to DHS.

We originally bought DVC thinking we would only stay during low points times (Aug/Sept) but after a few stays over Christmas and Easter breaks, we were hooked! Our calculus in buying VGF instead of Riviera this summer was that we had more points to begin with at VGF, *and* we love Christmas at VGF (and it's always been hard to get then). That said: If Riviera and VGF had been different UYs and one made more sense for Magical Beginnings, that would have swayed me. It was really a very close call.

 

[sethschroeder]

My heart wants more Riviera points but I don't think I can make a case for it.

Disney is doing it to drive you to buy more but if I got the incentive level from my past purchase at the same resort I might have added on. At this point I am squarely in not adding on.

It really bites Disney in the butt I think a little bit to have someone who bought 300 points at once but now if you add on 50-100 points you essentially get nothing.

I know why they do it though which is fine I am good without more points.

 

[kboo]

It really bites Disney in the butt I think a little bit to have someone who bought 300 points at once but now if you add on 50-100 points you essentially get nothing.

I wonder if there are people like me who contributed to that decision - started out thinking about 150 points and th3en bought well more than that even though the best per point price was at 150 points exactly.

They've probably already captured anyone who's going to buy at the 150+ point level and now are going after the 100-150 point group.

 

[BamaGuy44]

Can someone explain the timing on the Magical Beginnings offer? If I bought RIV today, with April Use Year, I would get the 2023 points that I could either use, bank or sell to Disney for $20/pp? Is that correct?

At what point would they not give me the 2023 points? When it's past the banking deadline for April (Nov 30)?

 

[intamin]

Can someone explain the timing on the Magical Beginnings offer? If I bought RIV today, with April Use Year, I would get the 2023 points that I could either use, bank or sell to Disney for $20/pp? Is that correct?

At what point would they not give me the 2023 points? When it's past the banking deadline for April (Nov 30)?

They would still give you points past the banking deadline and typically will still allow you to bank. We had people who were buying only days before the start of the new UY who were able to receive the points. In order to sell back the points I think you need to do so either 4 or 5 days before the UY ends.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

They would still give you points past the banking deadline and typically will still allow you to bank. We had people who were buying only days before the start of the new UY who were able to receive the points. In order to sell back the points I think you need to do so either 4 or 5 days before the UY ends.

Really? I would have assumed that you need to decide on MB (sell-back) by the time you sign the contract.

 

[nlenguyen]

As we get more information on August Direct Sales, VDH is slowing down. I am losing hope that they add more rooms for DVC booking inventory in the near future

 

[DanCali]

Really? I would have assumed that you need to decide on MB (sell-back) by the time you sign the contract.

You do - it's part of the purchase docs.

I believe what was meant is that if, for example, you want to buy this month an Oct use year, you'd have to buy before Sep 26 in order to take advantage of MB. Otherwise, you could buy on Sep 28 and still get Oct 2022 points to use/bank.