First DVC Resale Contract for The Villas at Disneyland Hotel

[MartyParty]

And maybe herein lies the Achilles heel of VDH vs Riv. At least at Riv there are no additional taxes on those points, and owners just adore that resort. Not saying that owners at all resorts don’t adore their own, just saying, not paying more for the same offering is key, e.g., Riv costs “x” points each year vs VDH costs same PLUS $500-1000 additional every year. That adds up extremely quickly being forced to use your points at VDH.

Calculations are not my strength, but think I saw someone say that buying VDH resale adds $50k+ to its membership vs any other resort.

Hey All,

My last post got "ka-chowed". Mentioned resort availability timing which I've now learned is a no no. Soooo.....take two.

The data point I wanted to add is that a factor for VDH pricing is availability. If you check the booking calendars its actually booked up for many months in to 2024. Now lots of reasons for this:

• New Resort
• Both VDH and other DVC owners using points to book
• Not all rooms declared, etc.

But if the popularity and demand remain, then that will affect the resale price point. And with the influx of VDH direct points you'll have us VDH folks looking to book over at VGC. Thus, VGC availability will be even more tight (as if that's possible) and the resale price (as there are no direct points) will remain high. Which...may further push buyers back to VDH on the west coast as you just cannot get in to VGC.

My thesis is this: VDH resale price will eventually trend like VGC has.

VDH resale price today might go down from the $185 level but longer term (6-8 years from now) I can see a world where its mimics the VGC resale. Will need VDH to sell out first.

 

[GoingSince1990]

VDH resale price today might go down from the $185 level but longer term (6-8 years from now) I can see a world where its mimics the VGC resale. Will need VDH to sell out first.

I can't see VDH resale ever being anywhere near VGC resale. The vast majority of people prefer the feel and location of VGC, with VGC you don't owe the tax, and VGC resale points can be used, or rented out for, a ton of WDW resorts (and also Aulani), unlike VDH resale points.

 

[MartyParty]

I can't see VDH resale ever being anywhere near VGC resale. The vast majority of people prefer the feel and location of VGC, with VGC you don't owe the tax, and VGC resale points can be used, or rented out for, a ton of WDW resorts (and also Aulani), unlike VDH resale points.

Time will tell what happens. You could be right. I'm guessing in the future that VDH resale is 10-20% priced below VGC. Not as pricy but just under. This is in a post west coast world where all the DVC direct points are sold. Long ways off for that.

But then again, maybe Disney Forward happens, a third DVC resort opens and its in a more advantageous spot than VDH. I read somewhere that DVC was looking to put a resort in Downtown Disney pre-COVID and the city put the brakes on it.

Yes, vast majority prefer VGC (me included) but aren't able to book it...or buy it.

VGC owners pay taxes ever year regardless of using their points at VGC or not, albeit discounted taxes.

True, VDH resale points are restricted to VDH. I think this DVD strategy plays better for VDH than RIV. Only two DVC choices on the west coast whereas a ton of choice in Florida.

 

[BrianLo]

I’m not sure why the dues are 13% higher… but Disney has to spell out exactly what those go to and can’t just set them arbitrarily.

VDH is essentially the opposite of an Aulani subsidized contract and I do think its eventual final pricing will reflect that in the resale market. With the slight caveat that all things being equal it would certainly sell more than Aulani. Direct remains an interesting beast because direct obviously isn’t restricted and one can technically opt out of the tax by staying elsewhere.

The rental market and the pushing of the tax on the renter itself might be VDH’s one small value ‘twist’ reprieve.

As to your comment about dues though, I’m personally wondering if this delta is truly going to hold. We sometimes see new resorts overcall and freeze dues. Just look at RIV that has really fallen down the dues rung. The assumptions are based on the dues Delta also holding which is technically more than 13% right now with VGC taxes falling into its fee. I think, but have no way to tell the future like the rest of you that some of the VGC pricing power will erode when it loses essentially a 1.50 per year advantage.

The final teeny tiny layer of my own math are Duo Studio. If not for those units I’d probably have forgone VDH for VGC personally. But those nightly rates and largely my preferred room type are the difference for me.

 

[DaveNan]

While VGC is located much closer to the parks, the key feature it has exclusively had it is "It is at Disneyland". All the member owning points at the other properties, by definition are Disney people, and an occasional trip to Disneyland is of interest to MANY owners. The only option was the smallest property in VGC. VDH still meets the need of having a "free (now lower cost with the TOT) stay" at Disneyland. It will be of extreme interest to many other members, so I expect availability to be very limited inside of 7 months. With the restrictions, all resale buyers at VDH better be planners. If you are a last minute traveler, do not buy resale at VDH. You will be losing lots of points. While it may not be as bad as VGC, do not expect any availability inside of 7 months. For popular time periods, you better be booking at 11 months. Availability between 7 and 11 months is always misleading while a resort is being sold. The declared inventory is always greater than the sold inventory (by definition), so the home resort booking window always looks good. Once the inventory is sold, expect all holiday time periods and limited room categories (all but studios) to be gone close to 11 months. And once you hit 7 months, all of us Florida owners will grab all remaining inventory within seconds.

 

[AstroBlasters]

VDH is essentially the opposite of an Aulani subsidized contract and I do think its eventual final pricing will reflect that in the resale market. With the slight caveat that all things being equal it would certainly sell more than Aulani. Direct remains an interesting beast because direct obviously isn’t restricted and one can technically opt out of the tax by staying elsewhere.

The rental market and the pushing of the tax on the renter itself might be VDH’s one small value ‘twist’ reprieve.

As to your comment about dues though, I’m personally wondering if this delta is truly going to hold. We sometimes see new resorts overcall and freeze dues. Just look at RIV that has really fallen down the dues rung. The assumptions are based on the dues Delta also holding which is technically more than 13% right now with VGC taxes falling into its fee. I think, but have no way to tell the future like the rest of you that some of the VGC pricing power will erode when it loses essentially a 1.50 per year advantage.

The final teeny tiny layer of my own math are Duo Studio. If not for those units I’d probably have forgone VDH for VGC personally. But those nightly rates and largely my preferred room type are the difference for me.

I agree with you. It will also be interesting to see if AUL and VGC move to the same point chart seasons as VDH. Right now someone who travels in January could buy a lot less points for a nightly stay at VDH than VGC.

You also have to have the upfront capital, which would be easier to save up for at VDH than VGC.

 

[DebbieB]

I am looking for a room the night of 8/3, I have a 1 bedroom at VGC the next four nights. A studio is 32 points for that Saturday night, my flight doesn’t land until around 4:00, doesn’t seem worth it. I was looking at VDH and was surprised both standard and preferred duo studios are available. They are available all of July. A standard is only 18 points. I have to wait until 7 months to use my BWV points (VGC is resale). I’ve already borrowed into my 2025 VGC points, so I don’t want to borrow more there to get the studio there. If I can’t get the Duo Studio, my backup is a Hilton Garden Inn on Harbour.

On the subject of resale price, I paid $180 for VGC in January 2020. I can’t believe how it skyrocketed .

 

[GoingSince1990]

On the subject of resale price, I paid $180 for VGC in January 2020. I can’t believe how it skyrocketed .

$125 for me in 2013-2014, and at the time I was really kicking myself for not buying in earlier. Needless to say I am a bit happier today!

 

[DebbieB]

$125 for me in 2013-2014, and at the time I was really kicking myself for not buying in earlier. Needless to say I am a bit happier today!

I thought about it when it first opened but I was able to get studios at 7 months at the time so I didn’t. Then when it got harder it was sold out.

I’m lucky I bought in 2020 before it went really high. I saw a listing right after New Years that was perfect (April use year is rare). I was also looking at my year end 401k, it gained 16% and I just passed 59 1/2 to withdraw without penalty. My advisor had mentioned that I should consider reinvesting my gains. Hmmmm….

 

[HeightRequirement]

I think so too. Right now, Riviera is selling direct at $217 per point not considering incentives. Resale is around the $140 mark. Almost 40% off.

 

[thelionqueen]

Time will tell what happens. You could be right. I'm guessing in the future that VDH resale is 10-20% priced below VGC. Not as pricy but just under. This is in a post west coast world where all the DVC direct points are sold. Long ways off for that.

But then again, maybe Disney Forward happens, a third DVC resort opens and its in a more advantageous spot than VDH. I read somewhere that DVC was looking to put a resort in Downtown Disney pre-COVID and the city put the brakes on it.

Yes, vast majority prefer VGC (me included) but aren't able to book it...or buy it.

VGC owners pay taxes ever year regardless of using their points at VGC or not, albeit discounted taxes.

True, VDH resale points are restricted to VDH. I think this DVD strategy plays better for VDH than RIV. Only two DVC choices on the west coast whereas a ton of choice in Florida.

I disagree on the assumption the vast majority prefer GVC over VDH. Personally I don’t. To me GCV is like home and not like a vacation at all.

Maybe as far as DVC points stays being more desirable without the tax, but comparing one or the other, DLH blows GCV out of the universe imo

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

While VGC is located much closer to the parks, the key feature it has exclusively had it is "It is at Disneyland". All the member owning points at the other properties, by definition are Disney people, and an occasional trip to Disneyland is of interest to MANY owners. The only option was the smallest property in VGC. VDH still meets the need of having a "free (now lower cost with the TOT) stay" at Disneyland. It will be of extreme interest to many other members, so I expect availability to be very limited inside of 7 months. With the restrictions, all resale buyers at VDH better be planners. If you are a last minute traveler, do not buy resale at VDH. You will be losing lots of points. While it may not be as bad as VGC, do not expect any availability inside of 7 months. For popular time periods, you better be booking at 11 months. Availability between 7 and 11 months is always misleading while a resort is being sold. The declared inventory is always greater than the sold inventory (by definition), so the home resort booking window always looks good. Once the inventory is sold, expect all holiday time periods and limited room categories (all but studios) to be gone close to 11 months. And once you hit 7 months, all of us Florida owners will grab all remaining inventory within seconds.

This is my concern (as a SoCal resident who visits DLR several times a year)—I prefer VGC to VDH (based on resort and especially location) but I’m reluctant to buy at either of them because my DL trips rarely get planned more than 6 weeks out, let alone 6m. If I was going to buy one resale, it would definitely be VGC since I could use my points at Aulani or WDW or rent them elsewhere if I’d missed the window. With VDH, I could imagine having to bank frequently and then potentially having them expire.

 

[Disfamwa]

This is my concern (as a SoCal resident who visits DLR several times a year)—I prefer VGC to VDH (based on resort and especially location) but I’m reluctant to buy at either of them because my DL trips rarely get planned more than 6 weeks out, let alone 6m. If I was going to buy one resale, it would definitely be VGC since I could use my points at Aulani or WDW or rent them elsewhere if I’d missed the window. With VDH, I could imagine having to bank frequently and then potentially having them expire.

I definitely prefer VGC for resort feel and location. The rooms at VDH are beautiful right now, but all the resorts seem to have years where the rooms start looking and feeling a little rough and then the other parts of the resort need to be enough for me to still want to stay there. It’s the main reason why I bought VGF over RIV this summer—if the rooms were in their rough phase, I would rather be at VGF.

 

[AstroBlasters]

With the new incentives a 150pt VDH direct contract for a current member with MB and closing costs would pay $196pp direct and get the points loaded today.

I wonder how long before we see a price cut on this contract…. Obviously the market isn’t buying it at $185 because it has received a lot of publicity. Resale closing costs also add about $6-7pp in closing costs… so there is almost no cost saving between direct and resale at that price.

 

[CastAStone]

Obviously the market isn’t buying it at $185 because it has received a lot of publicity

I wonder what kind of offers the seller has turned down and if theyre turning down offers that will be significantly higher than what they wind up slowing cutting the price too. We saw a lot of that when the overall DVC market slowed down early last year.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I wonder what kind of offers the seller has turned down and if theyre turning down offers that will be significantly higher than what they wind up slowing cutting the price too. We saw a lot of that when the overall DVC market slowed down early last year.

I keep waiting for something to pop up in the rejected offers thread….

 

[AstroBlasters]

From the board sponsor Instant Sales Tool:

Recommended: $182 per point

Instant Sale: $146 per point

 

[CastAStone]

From the board sponsor Instant Sales Tool:

Recommended: $182 per point

Instant Sale: $146 per point

I assume some employee (or owner) there just plugged in some baseline numbers based on nothing but judgement to get that feature turned on.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I assume some employee (or owner) there just plugged in some baseline numbers based on nothing but judgement to get that feature turned on.

I thought “Instant Sale” was the price at which they will buy it from you immediately and hold on their balance sheet until they can resell it?

 

[CastAStone]

I thought “Instant Sale” was the price at which they will buy it from you immediately and hold on their balance sheet until they can resell it?

Yes, I was referring more to the pricing algorithm writ large.