For those trying to figure out when to reschedule your trips

[vinotinto]

Touringplans just put out a very informative Blog post with statistical modeling if the parks reopen May 1, June 1, July 1 or Aug 1.
https://touringplans.com/blog/2020/03/24/crowd-calendar-and-coronavirus/
Basically, due to all the rescheduling, they are expecting peaks in June, July and early August, early through mid October, early November, Thanksgiving and December holidays.

But, the peaks are higher for June, July and August if they reopen earlier. If they reopen later, then the October ad November peaks become more pronounced, which is all very logical.

 

[nkereina]

Thanks for sharing. The dip in September is interesting, and I would attribute that to the new school year starting I think? The poll on their site shows the majority who have voted so far intend to visit WDW as soon as possible when they re-open.

 

[AmishGuy91]

I think all this depends highly on how much actually opens and what changes are implemented. No way it immediately opens 100% as we know it, so do only certain parks open, or only certain attractions/meets, and are there changes to the queue lines.

 

[agamble]

Thanks for sharing. The dip in September is interesting, and I would attribute that to the new school year starting I think? The poll on their site shows the majority who have voted so far intend to visit WDW as soon as possible when they re-open.

This is what I was thinking too. Some are saying due to the economy and fear of traveling that people will postpone trips and Disney will have to beg customers to come with discounts. But on the June board there are so many people who were going in March/April that have rescheduled to June. I'm now worried that if our June trip doesn't get cancelled it will end up crowded. I see September as being more normal as I would think with kids missing so much school this year that many families would think twice before taking the kids out in the fall, even if they normally wouldn't mind.

 

[volfan1978]

It's a fascinating question, but I think we're still two weeks away from getting any indication of when the parks might start opening (and what that will look like). We have a trip scheduled for the week of Memorial Day, and right now I'd give it about a 50/50 shot that Disney will be open in any form then. We don't get to go often, so if they're not open on a pretty significant scale by then we'll try again later.

 

[bigjrfan88]

All of this is people's speculation. The website still says through 3/31 and I was able to book a trip beginning 4/1.

 

[nkereina]

I think all this depends highly on how much actually opens and what changes are implemented. No way it immediately opens 100% as we know it, so do only certain parks open, or only certain attractions/meets, and are there changes to the queue lines.

I don't think opening at 100% is too far-fetched. If they open in some limited capacity, that creates even more grey area. Do people who have visits planned during that time get a partial refund? Can they reschedule with no penalty? Closing some of the park, but not all of the park, doesn't make a huge difference in terms of containment if that's still a concern when they re-open. And if its no longer a concern at that time, then no reason to not re-open at 100%.

What's interesting is that the President said today he wants to re-open everything by Easter, which is April 12th. I know there's many opinions on this (and political discussions are prohibited), but I have to imagine businesses are hanging on this. No business wants to be closed longer than necessary, especially when we'll be nearing the month timeframe at that point. Because of that, I can envision Disney and other businesses taking things on a week by week basis after 3/31. Maybe even day to day in some instances. It will be interesting what the next move is for Disney after 3/31.

 

[Mainsail Minnie]

I think all this depends highly on how much actually opens and what changes are implemented. No way it immediately opens 100% as we know it, so do only certain parks open, or only certain attractions/meets, and are there changes to the queue lines.

It is by no means a foregone conclusion that they would only open certain parks or certain attractions at first. If they did that, visitors would be even more packed together than usual. It doesn't make sense as that's the most dangerous scenario.

They will have to "warm it up" a bit by running things and getting food ordered, get the employees back in, etc., in advance of opening. But I think when they do open, they'll be open for real. Not just a few parks or a limited number of attractions at each park.

 

[gharter]

I just got Touring Plans crowd predictions for our trip in October and they make no sense.
Depending on the day. some parks have jumped from a 1 to a 7 to 10. Others dropped from a 7 to a 1.
Others had no change.
In reality, I don't know that their predictions are any better than just guessing. There are so many variables that haven't been decided yet.
In general, it appears they expect it to be busier. Not really a surprise.

 

[mickeymom629]

We were going to go in December or January prior to this virus. But now, I don't see the parks opening anytime soon, maybe not even this year but I hope I am wrong of course. I don't see how anyone can predict crowds until Disney announces an opening date and they are not going to do that until this virus is under control, which it seems far from.

 

[zskid00]

We were going to go in December or January prior to this virus. But now, I don't see the parks opening anytime soon, maybe not even this year but I hope I am wrong of course.

There's no way Disney will be closed that long. If it is our economy will be sunk into a depression the likes of which we have never seen. I'm betting on them reopening 4-6 weeks from now.

 

[mickeymom629]

There's no way Disney will be closed that long. If it is our economy will be sunk into a depression the likes of which we have never seen. I'm betting on them reopening 4-6 weeks from now.

I understand what you are saying and I hope I am wrong, but I think it's going to be longer than you have predicted. The health crisis is the main focus (or should be) and the US has not seen the worst yet. The economy is not going to get better until people do.

I'm just hearing that New York'ers who were afraid of getting it have gone to FL and other places. If they were infected w/o knowing it, there will be a wave of cases in new places. China is getting reinfected with new travelers (or so I heard yesterday). People from all over come to Disney and Disney depends on people all over the world.

Anyway, I'm as devastated about what is happening and what may be the result as everyone is and definitely not trying to argue, as I am no expert. Time will tell. Disney will do the responsible thing and I don't think that can be foreseen yet. I don't know how there can be crowd predictions, that's all.

Stay well everyone! Hopefully we will see Mickey real soon!

 

[nkereina]

I just saw that Universal Orlando announced they are extending their closure to April 19th. They were originally closed through 3/31, same as Disney, and I believe they closed around the same time as Disney. So far, this is probably the best indicator of what Disney will do next. It would make sense for Disney to follow suit so as not to look like the bad guys for opening too early, but also not letting Universal steal their thunder if Disney were to open later than that.

 

[tsme]

I just got Touring Plans crowd predictions for our trip in October and they make no sense.
Depending on the day. some parks have jumped from a 1 to a 7 to 10. Others dropped from a 7 to a 1.
Others had no change.
In reality, I don't know that their predictions are any better than jsut guessing. There are so many variables that haven't been decided yet.
In general, it appears they expect it to be busier. Not really a surprise.

I got an email from them for our September trip too and it was the same thing, with one day a 2 and the next jumping from a 2 to a 6. It makes no sense. I think they’re guessing as much as we are. And to be perfectly honest, it’s adding to my stress level just thinking about it.

 

[gharter]

I think they’re guessing as much as we are. And to be perfectly honest, it’s adding to my stress level just thinking about it.

My thoughts exactly.

 

[GeneralTso]

My thoughts:

If any theme park is open before May, I will be very surprised. Things aren't going as well as they should be. Getting people to stay home has not worked.

Once parks do re-open, the rest of 2020 will be dreadfully crowded with all the rescheduled trips. Just like people were not scared to be there too late into the isolation game, the same crowds will flow in before anyone knows if it's really "safe" or not. There are some insane DISNEY OR DIE people around.

 

[nkereina]

My thoughts:

If any theme park is open before May, I will be very surprised. Things aren't going as well as they should be. Getting people to stay home has not worked.

Once parks do re-open, the rest of 2020 will be dreadfully crowded with all the rescheduled trips. Just like people were not scared to be there too late into the isolation game, the same crowds will flow in before anyone knows if it's really "safe" or not. There are some insane DISNEY OR DIE people around.

To play devils advocate, things may be going ok. There’s cases here in NY are rising as expected based on the testing performed, nothing insane or drastic. There is progress being made with antibody testing and some are speculating that the virus has been around awhile, so there may be thousands already with the antibodies that would be immune. The stock market also was up today, which was a little relief for my 401k! Lol!

I could see crowd levels going in either direction once they do open. Many will reschedule, but many will also need to cancel because of this impact on jobs. Even those who have not lost jobs are still impacted - in my line of work, I’m able to work full time from home, but my project load has shifted from spring to fall, making it difficult to reschedule to fall. Similarly, kids will be back in school in the fall for the first time in a long time so parents may be less inclined to pull them next school year, at least in the early part of it.

Everything is pure speculation at this point. It will be interesting to see how it shakes out!

 

[Disneylover99]

This is what I was thinking too. Some are saying due to the economy and fear of traveling that people will postpone trips and Disney will have to beg customers to come with discounts. But on the June board there are so many people who were going in March/April that have rescheduled to June. I'm now worried that if our June trip doesn't get cancelled it will end up crowded. I see September as being more normal as I would think with kids missing so much school this year that many families would think twice before taking the kids out in the fall, even if they normally wouldn't mind.

Some people will reschedule March/April trips to the summer months. But many/more will simply cancel any and all trips completely. I’m guessing there will be plenty of people cancelling their June trips, but just not posting about it. I really don’t think it will be crowded.

 

[Heather07438]

I love some of TPs services but these calendars are cagootz, now more than ever.

 

[CalSea12]

TP sent me an email today as well our 5/6 went to 9/10 for July.... im so much at a loss of when we should go anymore... do I keep my July trip, move it to October, or Christmas???? I just dunno anymore...