For those who so quickly crowned Dreamworks the new king of animation

[All Aboard]

Through 6 days of release, Spirit (at $25.7 m) trails Atlantis by more than $2m.

While Spirit is up against two blockbusters, it was a management decision to release when they did. A decision that figures into the entire mix when comparing the strength of the two studios.

Seems PDI/Dreamworks is a much more powerful combination than Dreamworks alone. Looks like Spirit will come in at about $85m (similar to the numbers some folks here laughed at for ENG and Atlantis.)

I'm not so quick to hand over the crown for Prince of Egypt, Road to El Dorado, King of Dreams and Spirit. Nor am I when we compare the work with the aid of outsiders (Antz, Chicken Run, Shrek v. Toy Story(s) Bug's Life & Monster's Inc.)

Let's see how Lilo does.

 

[airlarry!]

I like reading www.boxofficeguru.com for his takes on the weekend grosses, how they compared to last year's, and for his guesstimates for next weekend.

Anybody willing to put their rep on the line for an estimate of the Lilo numbers? Just for fun, or we'll play for a bar of Mickey soap if Sir Baron or M. Duck will bring an extra one back from their trips this summer.

I'm thinking $135 million....subject to revision after I read M. AV's detailed analysis.

 

[All Aboard]

Using the "Price is Right" strategy, I'll bid $136M.

 

[Bstanley]

What's the time period, the first weekend, or month, or?

 

[Bstanley]

OKley dokley, overall domestic take it is.

Better than 'Pocahontas' - but up against much tougher competition than it had, perhaps not as good as Tarzan - but Tarzan had similarly tough competition...

I'll bid $150 Million.

 

[Captain Crook]

$180 million...What a shocker this one will be...After the negative surprise of Spirit (money loser from the new "king")...This one will more than double Atlantis...

 

[Another Voice]

Okay – I’ll play but only if I can use Hollywood rules. That means I get two answers up front and the ability to change my mind at any time. Hey, it works for Michael…

What I think will happen is that ‘Lilo’ simply gets lost in the shuffle. Disney’s marketing has really collapsed on this one. I don’t mean all the ads on television; I’m talking about the surrounding hype that has to accompany a Big Summer Movie. There is no background buzz going on about this movie. There are no local TV anchors talking about it, no mentions on the Sally-Oprah-Regis circuit, no big segments on the “summer must see” lists – all that before-the-fact word of mouth a smaller movie needs to survive in the summer box office wars. Being an orphan film may have really helped the movie-making process, but it’s really hurting ‘Lilo’ in getting the company behind it.

This movie is also going to upset a large segment of Disney fandom. No offense to anyone, but people who own more than ten Disney snowglobes are not going to like ‘Lilo and Stitch’. It is a different kind of movie in terms of style – but probably the most “Disney” movie in terms of tone since the days of Walt. Fans going to see “nice” along the lines of ‘Mulan’ or ‘Tarzan’ or ‘Monsters’ are going to be in for a surprise (actually a shock). As for the ‘Atlantis’ fanboys – save your money for ‘Treasure Planet’.

Drowned out on opening day by date-night ‘Minority Report’, caught in the backdraft of family films ‘Spiderman’ and ‘Star Wars’ and thrown into an early grave by ‘Men in Black 2’ – ‘Lilo’ ends up earning $85 million through Labor Day.


Now what could happen (and what I really want to happen) is that word of mouth does kick in strong for ‘Lilo’. After a summer of hollow and intelligence-free movies, people find a movie that makes them feel something, a movie that actually gets them to react in the theater. Children will immediately respond to Lilo and to Stitch as characters – both embody what children feel these days as much as Snow White did to children in the 1930’s. Parents will be entertained more than their children will be and word will spread that this one truly is a different kind of Disney animated movie. I am still naïve enough to believe that quality still matters and I think it will matter in this case.

Coming in as the early blockbusters fade, and clearly superior to the manufactured drivel that follows it, ‘Lilo and Stitch’ developed ‘Shrek’-like legs that carry the movie throughout the summer. On Labor Day it has already passed the $250 million mark.


It used to be pretty easy to predict summer box office, but the rules have really changed these days. There is no middle ground anymore. A movie is either overly enriched by massive opening weekend crowds, or it’s unfairly tossed into an empty field. The more films are marketed like breakfast cereals, the more the market is being to treat them like that – it’s either an instant success or an instant failure.

 

[Captain Crook]

The more films are marketed like breakfast cereals...it's either an instant success or instant failure.

This sucks and it's the monolithic, conglomerated, prepackaged throw away pop inspired insipid lack of ethics corruptable and mindless money worshipping, money grubbing society that we have created that is to blame...Have I mentioned that I believe we are very near the end of civilization as we know it???

 

[Bstanley]

Always with the negative waves Moriarity!

 

[kidzmom3]

My kids are excited for it, and so are the other kids in our neighborhood, so I will go with 100 million, but I am suprised at the Spirit numbers as we saw it this weekend, the theatre was packed and we quite enjoyed the show and told our friends that it was a good movie to see.

 

[CM Tinkerbell]

I work for TDS and although most of our guests are fairly biased to the Disney product, there seems to be a great deal of excitement for this movie. There are so many people coming in saying that they are so anxious to go see this movie and the Lilo and Stitch merchandise has been doing very well. The thing that I noticed though, is the age range of the people coming in who are really excited about this film. Of course the little ones are going crazy over stitch, but I've talked to many older folks as well who are really excited. The other day was the topper though. There was a group of teens (which included both guys and girls) who came in and sat in front of our screen watching the Lilo and Stitch trailers. They were soooo excited. I couldn't help but laugh. So for some reason it seems to have a fairly wide appeal. I realy hope it does well. I know my family and I will be there on opening day for sure!

 

[YoHo]

I'm telling you the Trailers are Genious.


I found it interesting that the local Grocer replaced the AMidala Paper doll and Star Wars Coloring book display with a Lilo and Stitch one a week before Star Wars opened.


I'll play the Game. 175 Million.

 

[airlarry!]

As self-appointed Mediator, I'll close the books following the Labor Day Holiday...of course, if your number ends up being right at year's end, you can always crow that you meant Year End not Labor Day....

And to the winner?

How 'bout a pair of autographed Michael Eisner imagineering scissors used in various budget cutting celebrations? Or maybe two prizes: First prize could be a week's vacation with Paul Pressler at the Pop Century room of his choice. Second prize will be two weeks with Paul.

 

[Another Voice]

I should say that I’m split about 55% to 45% on my low-end to high-end chances. This year has had more than a few box office surprises. I really do think that strong word of mouth can propel this movie very strongly. The Stitch character can catch on very strongly, much to the chagrin of parents, and that could really keep the box office strong.

I expect an opening around $30 million, but Mr. Scoop is correct when he says that the best indicator will be the following week’s drop-off. I think 20% is impossibly good, but anything below 35% would be an excellent sign.


Captain: “Have I mentioned that I believe we are very near the end of civilization as we know it???”

You’ve seen ‘Scooby Doo: The Movie’ too!!!!!

 

[Testtrack321]

Play: $149 Million

Lilo has generated no fan fare in the teen sector like Shrek did. I think it won't be a Lion King thing, but it will do better than Hunchback due to kiddie word of mouth.

 

[YoHo]

Actually, I've seen a lot of Teen and Youngadult awarness. Its the people who were young when Mermaid came out that seem to be the most excited.

 

[hopemax]

I have 2 modes of thought about L&S. Either it will be another movie in the $85-$110 million range, or it will be BIG.

But considering, Disney, Murphy's Law and that Burbank is now CGI I think I will go with BIG. $210 million

Oh, and the other thing that will go wrong for Disney is that the Disney Store will be inundated by teens and 20-somethings looking for Stitch-wear for themselves and find out the DS has turned into a kiddie store. Wonder if Hot Topic has licensed some Stitch T's...

 

[hopemax]

This movie is also going to upset a large segment of Disney fandom. No offense to anyone, but people who own more than ten Disney snowglobes are not going to like ‘Lilo and Stitch’.

Hey, AV can you explain this a little bit? I've got way more then 10 snowglobes (plus a ton of other Disney stuff) but I'm looking forward to L&S more than any non-Pixar Disney movie since Mulan.

I love the artistic look of the film, I love the presence Stitch has. I love that there aren't a bunch of pop star vocal talent to provide distraction. I like that the characters aren't black & white, good/evil.

 

[Bob O]

I think if the film get to 100 million it will be lucky and im sure with the cost of making the movie and marketing that would be a loss. I hope im wrong(i own disney stock) but this is a tough marketplace and wont be on the same amount of screens as past movies and their is little hype and it seems kids today will perfer to see movies like MIB/Spiderman etc than animated films !!!
What did Ice Age end up making??? And do you think the dsiney film can beat it at the box office, because if it doesnt that is a serious failure on disney's part!!!

 

[airlarry!]

Woah, Bob.

Ice Age is still in the Top 20 and has done a stateside cum of $173 mill.

That's way more than anybody would have predicted...and if L&S does even 2/3 of that, I'm gonna cheer.

Why the long shot? I hate to even jinx this....but...look at the numbers every time Disney puts out two animated features in one year.

It doesn't even make sense for Disney to push L&S and Treasure Planet in the same year...I think that people like having Disney event movies, and they look forward to seeing one about every 12-18 months. It seems (and my memory might be wrong) but we always used to look for that late summer all the way to Thanksgiving release from Disney during the Second HeyDey.