Full return for Florida's cruise industry may not happen until 2022

[brentm77]

Current catalog price on NCL Pride of America, outside stateroom, $600 person in May with $1,700 per person discount.
https://cs.cruise.com/cs/forms/CruiseResultPage.aspx?skin=1&phone=888-333-3116&pin=&token=&did=42&mon=5/1/2021&vid=624&sid=1440&nr=y
Current catalog price on DCL Fantasy, outside stateroom, $1,842 to $1,920 per person in May.
https://cs.cruise.com/cs/forms/Crui...oken=&did=1&mon=5/1/2021&vid=582&len=6|9&nr=y
Granted, I am 100% sure neither line will be operating in May.

It seems you have picked some cruises that might bias the numbers. First, they are cruises scheduled to happen fairly soon, which can result in price swings based on availability. Second, one has a very steep discount applied, and not the other. It would be like picking a Florida discounted DCL cruise and comparing it to a full priced NCL cruise. It isn't really apples to apples.

I wouldn't really consider any prices right now to be fair representations. So many factors have been skewed based on the pandemic, resulting in some odd pricing.

It may be that there are times you really can get a fair at 1/3 the cost on lines other than Disney (and not some last minute deal that wouldn't work for the average traveler). But whenever I have priced a DCL cruise at a time and length that interests us, I have gone out and prices similar cruises on acceptable ships and it really hasn't been a huge cost savings. Maybe 20-30%. But maybe we are just unlucky in our timing?

 

[tvguy]

It seems you have picked some cruises that might bias the numbers. First, they are cruises scheduled to happen fairly soon, which can result in price swings based on availability. Second, one has a very steep discount applied, and not the other. It would be like picking a Florida discounted DCL cruise and comparing it to a full priced NCL cruise. It isn't really apples to apples.

I wouldn't really consider any prices right now to be fair representations. So many factors have been skewed based on the pandemic, resulting in some odd pricing.

It may be that there are times you really can get a fair at 1/3 the cost on lines other than Disney (and not some last minute deal that wouldn't work for the average traveler). But whenever I have priced a DCL cruise at a time and length that interests us, I have gone out and prices similar cruises on acceptable ships and it really hasn't been a huge cost savings. Maybe 20-30%. But maybe we are just unlucky in our timing?

The industry is certainly working on cash flow. My e-mail box is full of offers for 2022 cruises offering tips and all alcohol included and a balcony cabin for 7 days for $650. My last cruise was October 2019 on Celebrity Eclipse. 7 days, Vancouver to Victoria to San Francisco, to Santa Barbara to Los Angeles. Balcony cabin $600 a person. My Disney cruise on the Magic in 2003 was $2,250 per person, outside stateroom for a 7 day Eastern.
I don't have the price of my 2007 NCL Pride of America cruise as it was a gift from my. But my mom was the queen of the $299 7 day off season cruise and she did comment she was shocked at how low the price was.

 

[Lionsfan]

We booked a cruise for March 2022 early in the pandemic. It is almost sold out now.

 

[mevelandry]

Really? That hasn't been my experience. In my experience, it is maybe a 20-30% premium for four people. But I don't look at Carnival. I have only looked at other lines that are at least comparable in service/quality.

Europe does seem closer to double when compared to other lines.

My experience (comparing prices since 2016) is that DCL is usually 2x (or more) the price of Carnival and Royal Caribbean.

And we could talk for a very long time about service/quality... Which is usually excellent on the three cruise lines. This is why so many people alternate (and sometimes branch out) after trying another cruise line. You can have an excellent experience for half the price.

 

[spiders]

Sorry if I don't feel sorry for Carnival as an example who ran a profit of $7b in 2019.

Yes I understand they are hurting but its not like they were not raking it in and beyond that purposely avoiding labor laws in countries like the US.

It completely sucks the employees are left out to dry.

They didn’t make $7 billion - it was $3 billion and that’s based on revenue of $21 billion so they had $18 billion in expenses.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

You can have an excellent experience for half the price.

Or, put another way, is the DCL experience twice as good? Maybe not!

 

[dioxide45]

Current catalog price on NCL Pride of America, outside stateroom, $600 person in May with $1,700 per person discount.
https://cs.cruise.com/cs/forms/CruiseResultPage.aspx?skin=1&phone=888-333-3116&pin=&token=&did=42&mon=5/1/2021&vid=624&sid=1440&nr=y
Current catalog price on DCL Fantasy, outside stateroom, $1,842 to $1,920 per person in May.
https://cs.cruise.com/cs/forms/Crui...oken=&did=1&mon=5/1/2021&vid=582&len=6|9&nr=y
Granted, I am 100% sure neither line will be operating in May.

I clicked on your link, it is showing NCL rates of about $2000 per person. You are also not comparing it to a competing line in all practical purposes. NCL is competing more against Carnival and Royal more so than DCL. How much more would Disney cost if it operated solely in Hawaii.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Honestly, 2023 may be optimistic. Maybe.

COVID-19 is likely to become endemic, rather than pandemic, in a class with measles and HIV. It mutates enthusiastically and spreads easily. Large portions of the world have poor access to vaccines

Some of the changes in societal and personal behaviors are likely to be long lasting. One of those changes may be around crowding and capacity, especially in regards to international travel.

 

[Husker Mike]

Reality check. Here in California we are two months into vaccines and just 10% of the population has gotten their shot. And supply of the vaccine is being used faster than it is being replaced, but hopefully in 20 months....... A YEAR AND HALF FROM NOW.......everyone will be vaccinated.
The staff on cruise ships come from nations with smaller scale, or NO vaccination program. I think vaccines will be required to cruise. The issue is, I think there will be vaccinated passengers ready to return to cruising long before the cruise lines have the vaccinated staff to operate the ships. So cruising in 2021 at all may not be possible.

FWIW...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1359989199689179138

"We've now purchased enough vaccine supply to vaccinate all Americans," President Biden says after announcing the purchase of 200M more coronavirus vaccines (100M Moderna, 100M Pfizer). "We're now on track to have enough supply for 300M Americans by the end of July."

Since currently children aren't able to get the vaccine, I would expect that anybody who WANTS to be vaccinated will be able to get their first shop by May, if not sooner. Probably much closer to THREE months, not 20.

 

[tvguy]

FWIW...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1359989199689179138

Since currently children aren't able to get the vaccine, I would expect that anybody who WANTS to be vaccinated will be able to get their first shop by May, if not sooner. Probably much closer to THREE months, not 20.

Interesting. The article that I forgot to post yesterday said "the the end of summer" which would be September. But that is supply, not actually immunization. So they may have the vaccine but they are allowing two months to get it in people's arms. But to the point of this thread on cruising, not thinking that will make much difference since the International Staff on cruise ships are not from nations with as an aggressive vaccine plan. Many of their homelands have no vaccine purchased yet or a plan. Can't cruise without staff.

 

[Iceman93]

My concern is STATES at this point can't get enough vaccine, how are cruise lines going to get priority or event find vaccine for International staff?

Other countries (e.g. China) are producing vaccines too, that I have to suspect will be available to the highest bidder. Cruise companies could easily buy huge batches of those to vaccinate their employees. In fact, if I was a cruise line executive who had large percentages of my workers from Indonesia and the Philippines, I would commit to vaccinating those ENTRIE COUNTRIES as a goodwill measure, with the obvious side effect that all my workers would get vaccinated.

 

[AquaDame]

Interesting. The article that I forgot to post yesterday said "the the end of summer" which would be September. But that is supply, not actually immunization. So they may have the vaccine but they are allowing two months to get it in people's arms. But to the point of this thread on cruising, not thinking that will make much difference since the International Staff on cruise ships are not from nations with as an aggressive vaccine plan. Many of their homelands have no vaccine purchased yet or a plan. Can't cruise without staff.

Well and there is the waiting period before the second shot (reports are that even in those who do catch it in the interim, the viral load is reduced, which is good news) and then some days before full effectiveness has kicked in too. Even after we get our second shot we plan on laying low a little bit longer.

I'm in the boat that assumes if we have "extra" doses here they would be available to international workers who spend time in the US, which would include cruise ship workers.

 

[brentm77]

Well and there is the waiting period before the second shot (reports are that even in those who do catch it in the interim, the viral load is reduced, which is good news) and then some days before full effectiveness has kicked in too. Even after we get our second shot we plan on laying low a little bit longer.

I'm in the boat that assumes if we have "extra" doses here they would be available to international workers who spend time in the US, which would include cruise ship workers.

Yep. With billions of dollars at stake, and what appears to be excess vaccine in the U.S. in the not-too-distant future, these companies will find a way to get employees vaccinated.

 

[Firepath]

The only thing I will caution you about that statement. You have to remember where these people are coming from and not apply US cost of living and wage scales to them. We were talking with one of our servers during lunch and in his home country he already owned a convenience store his wife and mom ran and was hoping to retire from the cruise life in his 40s after buying a 2nd convivence store and run those. I have worked hard in the US and don't have that luxury. For some, they are making way more money than at home on a cruise contract, is it a perfect job, nope, but I will tell you there is no such job

But even the best life in some third-world countries isn't as good as our worst. Not sure they can say they have it pretty good, and most of us can.

 

[AquaDame]

But even the best life in some third-world countries isn't as good as our worst. Not sure they can say they have it pretty good, and most of us can.

Values differ wildly too though... even if I may not be happy with the "good" conditions of another country, my opinion doesn't matter. Saying more than that would just pull me into the realm of politics... but I hope you get what I mean.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I'm not certain they will be allowed to procure or vaccinate in the US for some time, as I believe the Defense Production Act limits private party access to vaccine market.

 

[cgolf]

But even the best life in some third-world countries isn't as good as our worst. Not sure they can say they have it pretty good, and most of us can.

I am not sure what you mean with your reply. Our server seemed very happy to be able to provide the life he could for his family and what his ultimate goal in life was. He seemed content and excited about his future prospects. Is it the type of life I live here in the states, probably not. So I was very happy for him, to be honest he seemed happier with his situation in life than I am about mine. I think it is all about perspectives. People living in different countries have different perspectives and outlooks on life. I don't think that anyone's perspective is better than the other.

 

[MsAmerica]

I believe there will be a few ships sailing again this year but at vastly reduced capacity. Just like the parks, I can see the first three months of cruising to be at 25-30% capacity. That means A LOT of disappointed guests are going to get canceled. And everyone will need to be vaccinated on board. However, under 18 hasn't been approved to be vaccinated yet so families might be the first group to get the ax.

But then again, who knows??? Its all speculation on our parts. I honestly don't even believe the CEO of RCCL or DCL knows when cruising will return.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Our server seemed very happy to be able to provide the life he could for his family and what his ultimate goal in life was

Staff is never going to say bad things in a public facing way, especially when reliant on tips.

Anyone who has ever worked as a server anywhere will tell you that...

 

[brentm77]

Staff is never going to say bad things in a public facing way, especially when reliant on tips.

Anyone who has ever worked as a server anywhere will tell you that...

I don't think it is that simple. I think many of us are at least capable of detecting B.S. and schmoosing for a tip versus genuine conversation. And I have personally experienced genuine conversation with servers who seem grateful for the pay they are receiving compared to what they would make back home. One told me how it was allowing him to save up and get engaged, which he couldn't do otherwise. Another told me he hadn't tasted beef prior to working for DCL, because it was a luxury his family couldn't afford back home, and how much the job was helping his family. He seemed genuinely happy to be there every day. Obviously the pay is at least good enough to compel people to leave their families for long periods of time and work very long hours, or they wouldn't be able to staff the ships.

As I have stated above, I am on the fence about this issue because it is complex. Just because there are desperate situations in some countries, doesn't necessarily justify taking advantage of people needing to work for low wages. On the other hand, I am glad I can improve their situation somewhat by cruising, and, not to toot my own horn, but I tip very generously to try and make up for the low wages. Unfortunately, that only helps the tipped positions. If I could wave a magic wand and pay a bit more to increase wages for all the crew, I would. I would probably support reasonable legislation for better wages on cruise lines taking mostly U.S. passengers from U.S. ports. But, that could come at a cost of less positions for people who need it. Beyond that, boycotting cruising or something would only hurt those who want the jobs. I figure I am better supporting them and tipping well where I can.