Help with Crowd Calendar

[sweetpea29488]

Touring plans just sent me a email. My MK day was uped from a 4 to a 5. We are use to going in June. How does this compare? I know that it's just a prediction so I know it can go either way, but was wondering how this compares. Thanks for any help.

 

[jaysmom4285]

If you go to the touring plans site, they explain in great detail what the numbers mean. They are measuring the predicted wait times at the major attractions from something like 10-5. An increase of a single digit probably means about a ten minute increase in estimated wait time. Nothing major.

 

[jaysmom4285]

No offense to mesaboy2, but the touring plan methods, while of course not foolproof, are far from wild guesses. They have a lot of research, data, and algorithms that they use in their predictions, and they are accurate much more than they are not. And they openly post how their predictions did vs. actual numbers.

 

[emilyrachael]

Be glad if it's only 1 number increase. Their numbers for January were way off....but I think we all know crowds have been far from predictable lately.

 

[mesaboy2]

OBE

 

[dolewhipdreams]

TP also restructured their basis for their 1-10 scale, as some wait times in general have gone up. They recently posted an article on their blog explaining the change. So expect to see some adjustments coming for the rest of the year and into the future.

 

[SaintsManiac]

No offense to mesaboy2, but the touring plan methods, while of course not foolproof, are far from wild guesses. They have a lot of research, data, and algorithms that they use in their predictions, and they are accurate much more than they are not. And they openly post how their predictions did vs. actual numbers.

And they have been way, way off for the last 6 weeks at least.

 

[Eccle]

Yesterday the predictions were 6 at MK and 5 at AK, the actual were 9 and 10

 

[SuzieN]

I was at WDW from 1/30-2/6 and I can tell you that it was extremely busy the whole time. I don't think I checked Touring Plans specifically but I did look at several crowd predictors and they all said light crowds. Crowds were far from light. We typically go to WDW every 2 years in february and this was by far the most crowded trip we have been on.

 

[NJlauren]

My days also keep going up from 5 to 6 a while back and now 6 to 7.

I’m just going in with a plan and a desire to have a good time and that’s all.

Trying to not let it bother me

 

[linjohn]

We are going during our spring break 3/24-4/07/18 and our crowd calendar keeps going down.

 

[Klayfish]

No offense to mesaboy2, but the touring plan methods, while of course not foolproof, are far from wild guesses. They have a lot of research, data, and algorithms that they use in their predictions, and they are accurate much more than they are not. And they openly post how their predictions did vs. actual numbers.

No, they actually are nothing but wild guesses. Looking at historical data has so incredibly little to do with the future when it comes to this. Sure, you can make very sweeping generalizations to say that Christmas is busy, 4th of July is busy, etc...but beyond that to say that a given Tuesday in September will have a crowd level of X is just a wild guess. In statistics, the more variables you have, the less accurate your analysis of the data. There are so many variables that can't be controlled or predicted that there's no relevance to what happened in the past. Weather, economy, special events, etc... I know a lot of people love crowd calendars, and that's fine. But don't read anything into their "algorithms", as they can't account for so many things that would have a major impact. IMO, they're complete WAGs.

 

[daisydee43]

We are going during our spring break 3/24-4/07/18 and our crowd calendar keeps going down.

I just received an email stating that the crowds during my April trip had decreased, some by two points, which I was not expecting.

 

[sharonabe]

We are going during our spring break 3/24-4/07/18 and our crowd calendar keeps going down.

I just received an email stating that the crowds during my April trip had decreased, some by two points, which I was not expecting.

Considering Disney has just INCREASED hours for late March/early April, I'd say TP is drinking something. Disney doesn't increase hours unless they're expecting larger crowds, and they haven't been adding hours this far in advance for quite some time, so Disney is obviously seeing something TP doesn't or can't.

 

[SaintsManiac]

TP wrote a blog explaining it.

https://blog.touringplans.com/2018/02/12/crowd-calendar-4-1/

 

[10CJ]

Considering Disney has just INCREASED hours for late March/early April, I'd say TP is drinking something. Disney doesn't increase hours unless they're expecting larger crowds, and they haven't been adding hours this far in advance for quite some time, so Disney is obviously seeing something TP doesn't or can't.

if there are more park hours the crowds are spread out more over the day, which is why you might see a drop when hours are extended.