How could Epcot be only a "7" crowd rating on July 4th???

[PDXmouse]

I have a Touring Plans subscription. I love their data driven, analytical approach to the parks. It's done well by me in the past and I'm looking forward to using it on our upcoming trip.

What I don't understand is that it isn't showing mass crowds for the 4th of July, which I thought were crazy busy? It has MK at a "5" on July 3rd, and Epcot at a "7" on July 4th. That just seems low to me given what I've read.

I thought at first those numbers would jump as we got closer to the holiday but so far they haven't. Does anyone know more how the rating system works? Can I assume that both parks will feel like a "9/10" on those days?

 

[Traveling on cc points]

We are doing MK on the 3rd and Epcot on the 4th. My thought was that most people would want to be at MK on the 4th. I fully expect both to be a zoo.

 

[greeneyedchick]

It's been 25 years since I've worked there, but Magic Kingdom used to reach fire capacity every 4th of July. I would assume that July 4 will be 10/10 for the MK. Everyone wants to be there for the fireworks. It's quite possible that Epcot will be a 5, although I feel like the Disney parks are never a 5 any more.

 

[kylenne]

Data driven, analytical approaches only work when you use good data and Touring Plans hasn’t in years. Covid just exacerbated the existing issues. Josh wrote about the problems with their data sets a lot before he passed away. This is why I sound like a broken record when people bang on about these arbitrary numbers they pull out of thin air as if they mean anything (they don’t). Really chaps my hide to see folks spinning themselves into a tizzy and giving themselves frankly unnecessary stress because of it.

I still subscribe for the Lines app, the room request tool and the park hours tracker but quite frankly you would get better results with Miss Cleo on crowd predictions. As always the best practice is to assume it will be crowded, plan for the worst case scenario and be flexible enough to pivot on the fly if it turns out to not be the case.

 

[zebrastreyepz]

I love TP for many things, but I ignore the crowd level numbers.

Part of the issue is, the number is related ONLY to attraction data and even then, not all attractions. Many meet and greets, for instance, are not included in their data. At EP, I think the only M&G included is Anna and Elsa.

So, crowds can be huge because of a Festival, and the TP crowd level will only count toward who is actually ON the attractions.

Like @kylenne, I subscribe for that amazing Lines app which beats Free Genie in every way. I create my own itinerary, and they crunch the numbers for me and give me a plan that works and can be optimized throughout the day.

It was actually Kenny the Pirate's rating system that I would use for choosing parks. He had a green for "go to this park," a red for "avoid this park," and yellow for "moderate" crowds. I don't know if he still does this as we now choose parks based on personal preferances.

For instance, we go to Studios first so DH can spend his souvenir money in Galaxy's Edge and not worry about what he has left to spend for the rest of the trip.

 

[sponica]

There's a reason they are selling those 4 park magic tickets. Attendance has dropped...but also crowd levels are meaningless when Disney is artificially restricting them.

Those days are still green in the theme park reservation calendar...which while meaningless also makes me think attendance is lower. We're 5.5 weeks out and there's nothing in yellow yet...unless everyone is waiting until the last minute to make their reservations...

 

[Narcoossee11]

I think that since EPCOT land mass is huge, that per person 'space' per foot means that it would 'appear' to be less crowded.

 

[lpereira]

TO is garbage generally speaking. But also we are in a recession. To date 270,000 workers have been laid off with thousands more job cuts planned.
Ticket discounts you can use with room discounts have been announced for this summer. "Special AP appreciation discounts are running during the month of June. Disney doesn't do that when attendance is high or even baseline.

 

[WDWOswald]

It might be right, I know many locals could potentially be visiting on July 4th…. but hotel bookings are EXTREMELY soft for those dates. I can’t remember the last time Swan and Dolphin was $190/night in the summer.

 

[sponica]

The calendar is still green....either everyone is waiting until the last minute to book their reservations, or attendance is softer

 

[wabbott]

The calendar is still green....either everyone is waiting until the last minute to book their reservations, or attendance is softer

DLR/DCA attendance also soft. The ticket calendar shows availability every day.

 

[Praying Colonel]

 

[PDXmouse]

Disney Tourist Blog is also calling for a slowing. However, if Disney responds by cutting back on staff it could still reflect badly on weight times.

 

[dunhill76]

I have a Touring Plans subscription. I love their data driven, analytical approach to the parks. It's done well by me in the past and I'm looking forward to using it on our upcoming trip.

What I don't understand is that it isn't showing mass crowds for the 4th of July, which I thought were crazy busy? It has MK at a "5" on July 3rd, and Epcot at a "7" on July 4th. That just seems low to me given what I've read.

I thought at first those numbers would jump as we got closer to the holiday but so far they haven't. Does anyone know more how the rating system works? Can I assume that both parks will feel like a "9/10" on those days?

Having been to both in the past it will NOT be a 5 or a 7 lol. It will be so crowded you question your sanity for going.

 

[Jacq7414]

There are rooms still available. I don’t think any hotel is sold out for the dates.

I am thinking it’ll be crowded, but I’ll still be there

 

[keishashadow]

TP crowd levels were adjusted since original post, as they always are…they & Tom bricker haven’t failed us yet with crowd predictions