Hurricane Dorian - SWA/Delta/AA/JB waivers available

[sandam1]

Then it sounds like your flight is indeed sold out. Try not to worry yet. They don’t even know if the storm will hold together past Thursday, much less make it to central Florida.

I'm trying, but the weather people (and Dorian herself) are NOT helping. Thankfully, this trip is slightly longer than we usually do (5 days versus 4) so we're okay if we lose a day. I'm supposed to work on Saturday until 4 p.m. or I would seriously consider flying out a day early when/if Southwest starts offering travel waivers.

 

[Cinderumbrella]

I'm trying, but the weather people (and Dorian herself) are NOT helping. Thankfully, this trip is slightly longer than we usually do (5 days versus 4) so we're okay if we lose a day. I'm supposed to work on Saturday until 4 p.m. or I would seriously consider flying out a day early when/if Southwest starts offering travel waivers.

Ignore national weather about this right now. Hurricanes are big ratings for them. Try to only follow FL local weather. Honestly, I doubt this is going to affect flights (except maybe a delay). It’s just not predicted to be a big enough or strong enough storm (IF it’s even still around my the weekend).

 

[js]

As a New Yorker, I worry more about our snow storms than hurricanes and wasn't aware of Denis but he is my new best friend on FB, follow him and keep true to Rule No. 7:

Denis Phillips

 

[JimMIA]

Ignore national weather about this right now. Hurricanes are big ratings for them.

This is VERY sound advice. Especially cable weather channels etc are nothing but clickbait during hurricane season. And they've done some really humerous "live reporting!"

Local Florida TV stations are usually very knowledgeable.

WeatherUnderground and the National Hurricane Center (about 3 miles from my house) are THE definitive sources for accurate, hype-free information.

I'm waiting for the 11 AM stuff to load completely and then I'll do an update.

 

[sethschroeder]

This is VERY sound advice. Especially cable weather channels etc are nothing but clickbait during hurricane season. And they've done some really humerous "live reporting!"

Local Florida TV stations are usually very knowledgeable.

WeatherUnderground and the National Hurricane Center (about 3 miles from my house) are THE definitive sources for accurate, hype-free information.

I'm waiting for the 11 AM stuff to load completely and then I'll do an update.

I am following along.

That being said there is not much I can do unless Southwest starts allowing rebooking. I just want to be ready if that happens.

Options if Southwest allows rebooking:
- Keep Sat 6:30pm landing
- Sat 10am landing
- Fri 9pm landing

 

[JimMIA]

11 AM Update

A couple of very basic things to understand about tropical systems:

• First, they are not dots on a map or points on a line. They are large areas of disturbed weather, with the worst weather in a relatively small area around the eye of the storm.
  • For example, right now TS Dorian has tropical storm force winds (>39 MPH) across about an 80 mile front NE and NW of the center.
  • By Friday when Dorian possibly starts impacting Florida, those winds will expand to 150 miles from NE to NW.
• Most important -- the average ERROR in storm position 5 days out is 200 miles. So, looking at the cone for Sunday, the center of the storm could be anywhere from Key West to a little north of Jacksonville. That's an enormous area where the storm could go. The "Cone of Uncertainty" is usually very accurate at 2 days, good at 3 days out, and not so much beyond 3 days. So take these maps with a grain of salt.

So...winds -- important because they affect flight scheduling greatly.

Just realize that ALL of Florida is likely to have tropical storm winds by Saturday morning. Here's the map.



And storm conditions

Dorian passed over the island of St. Lucia this morning and suffered some significant disruption from the mountains there. However, it is expected to regain strength over open waters for the next 48 hours or so.

It looks like the system may pass either between the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico, or more over the eastern part of the DR. The eastern part of the DR is mostly low elevation, with the high mountains (7000-10,000 feet) in the western part of the country bordering Haiti.

If this course holds, there will be some disruption of the core of the storm, but not great disruption and possible dispersal.

The best-case scenario would be for the storm to shift a little to the west and pass over the center of Hispaniola. If that happened, Dorian might be history.

From the DR, the current projection shows the storm moving northwestward, east of the Turks & Caicos and along the eastern edge of the Bahamas. Then the storm is expected to make a slight left shift and make landfall somewhere along the central Florida east coast. Right now, it's headed for the Vero Beach - Cocoa Beach area.

Here's the cone:



So net-net, it looks like tropical storm force winds throughout most of Florida from Saturday morning through Sunday night, and lots of rain Saturday and Sunday.

 

[sethschroeder]

Just realize that ALL of Florida is likely to have tropical storm winds by Saturday morning. Here's the map.

Thanks for the amazing info and how to think about it.

Would you say its safe to assume that if things stay as is its a much better idea to fly in Friday night than Saturday morning/evening? Again knowing the storm could all of a sudden shift or weaken so no way to predict for sure.

 

[sponica]

Thanks for the amazing info and how to think about it.

Would you say its safe to assume that if things stay as is its a much better idea to fly in Friday night than Saturday morning/evening? Again knowing the storm could all of a sudden shift or weaken so no way to predict for sure.

I'd wait to make that call until the airlines start issuing travel waivers for MCO, if they do, I'd jump on an earlier arrival.

 

[Shelly F - Ohio]

With SWA don't rely on the travel alert to list your city as one effected by the storm. This past winter our city was not listed on the alert because of a snow storm and I wanted to change my flight to be safe and when I went to do the change flight option it told me on that page I could change my flight because of the storm. I went back after changing my flight to the one I really wanted but it was more expensive, and they allowed me to do it for no extra charge and looked again at the travel alert list on the home page and it still did not have my city listed on the alert.

 

[JimMIA]

I'd wait to make that call until the airlines start issuing travel waivers for MCO, if they do, I'd jump on an earlier arrival.

Yep. Seth, this is your answer. Don't pay to switch flights.

But if the storm continues on this track, even at this minimal strength, I think it's unlikely that you'll be able to fly in Saturday or Sunday.

 

[JimMIA]

Options if Southwest allows rebooking:
- Keep Sat 6:30pm landing
- Sat 10am landing
- Fri 9pm landing

Assuming the storm continues as indicated...I would take Friday night if you can get it.

I'd say Sat 630 PM definitely ain't happening, and Saturday morning is unlikely.

 

[DisneyTrip2019]

Hi All - first thanks to everyone that is contributing to this forum. We are little stressed out because we are taking our family to Disney for the first time this Thursday. We fly down from Philadelphia to Orlando Thursday morning so I do not think our flight will be impacted by the storm. However, because this is our first trip down and we spent an arm and a leg on the trip, we are concerned that once we get down there, the entire trip or a big portion of it will be ruined as a result of the storm. We leave on Tuesday morning.

It is hard for anyone to gauge at this point what will happen, but if anyone has any advice on what we should do, that would be great. Our thought is that we wait until Thursday morning to see if anything has changed, and if not, maybe we try to cancel? I am not so worried about the flights since they were booked using miles, but I am concerned about the hotel and park reservations. Would disney allow us to cancel even if it has not been confirmed as a hurricane yet? strong winds and heavy rain will still ruin the vacation.

Thanks all in advance.

 

[Shelly F - Ohio]

Hi All - first thanks to everyone that is contributing to this forum. We are little stressed out because we are taking our family to Disney for the first time this Thursday. We fly down from Philadelphia to Orlando Thursday morning so I do not think our flight will be impacted by the storm. However, because this is our first trip down and we spent an arm and a leg on the trip, we are concerned that once we get down there, the entire trip or a big portion of it will be ruined as a result of the storm. We leave on Tuesday morning.

It is hard for anyone to gauge at this point what will happen, but if anyone has any advice on what we should do, that would be great. Our thought is that we wait until Thursday morning to see if anything has changed, and if not, maybe we try to cancel? I am not so worried about the flights since they were booked using miles, but I am concerned about the hotel and park reservations. Would disney allow us to cancel even if it has not been confirmed as a hurricane yet? strong winds and heavy rain will still ruin the vacation.

Thanks all in advance.
[/QUOI

I would pack rain gear and a spare pair of shoes. It will likely rain most of the time there. Best to put cell phones or other electronics you plan to take into the parks in ziplock bags just in case as well. Oh and a newspaper too. Newspaper crumpled up and put inside shoes will help them dry quicker

 

[sponica]

Hi All - first thanks to everyone that is contributing to this forum. We are little stressed out because we are taking our family to Disney for the first time this Thursday. We fly down from Philadelphia to Orlando Thursday morning so I do not think our flight will be impacted by the storm. However, because this is our first trip down and we spent an arm and a leg on the trip, we are concerned that once we get down there, the entire trip or a big portion of it will be ruined as a result of the storm. We leave on Tuesday morning.

It is hard for anyone to gauge at this point what will happen, but if anyone has any advice on what we should do, that would be great. Our thought is that we wait until Thursday morning to see if anything has changed, and if not, maybe we try to cancel? I am not so worried about the flights since they were booked using miles, but I am concerned about the hotel and park reservations. Would disney allow us to cancel even if it has not been confirmed as a hurricane yet? strong winds and heavy rain will still ruin the vacation.

Thanks all in advance.

Personally I wouldn't change. Sat/Sun might be a washout but as long as the parks are open, it'll be lower crowds! I will take high winds/rain and low crowds in a heartbeat.

Are you booked as a package or room only? I can't remember all my terms and conditions, but you should be able to reschedule the trip and use what you've paid for a future trip.

 

[DisneyTrip2019]

Thanks so much for your response. We are booked as a package.

 

[DisneyTrip2019]

I would pack rain gear and a spare pair of shoes. It will likely rain most of the time there. Best to put cell phones or other electronics you plan to take into the parks in ziplock bags just in case as well. Oh and a newspaper too. Newspaper crumpled up and put inside shoes will help them dry quicker

based on that, you wouldnt just reschedule? or are you saying that we would still enjoy it despite all the rain?

 

[sponica]

Thanks so much for your response. We are booked as a package.

You can look into rescheduling if that's what you truly want...but I wouldn't. If we were talking category 5 Noah's ark, end of days storm that would be different. But if we're talking lower end of the scale, it will be windy, it will be rainy...but you'll be in Disney.

 

[kbwright]

We are flying in Sunday due to get into MCO at 11:45AM on a direct flight. My guess is worst case we might be delayed depending on winds/rain and the timing or we might be right on time. Last year we flew around the outer bands of Florence on our way down and we were early coming in - so you never know. 'Tis the season! I am not loving the idea of missing a minute of vacation but I know that is just me being a little selfish. Thankfully, I was planning on avoiding the parks except for dinner on Sunday night - but we shall see, Mother Nature is in control for now Hopefully Dorian will collapse by Thurs/Friday and it will just be some rain for the weekend to keep away major crowds

 

[Orfness2000]

They have plenty inside the parks to keep you busy too if it's a wash. Lots of Disney shows and some rides, and Universal basically the same with indoor rides and blue Man group and stuff. I'm kinda looking forward to smaller crowds and the sweltering heat will definitely drop a few notches!

 

[DisneyTrip2019]

You can look into rescheduling if that's what you truly want...but I wouldn't. If we were talking category 5 Noah's ark, end of days storm that would be different. But if we're talking lower end of the scale, it will be windy, it will be rainy...but you'll be in Disney.

I understand. Thanks for your response.