Hurricane Irma?

[Interpol]

I know what the eye of the storm feels like, I've been through it. Like you said the highest sustained winds only go about 60 miles from it, after that the intensity starts dying down. If it takes the east trajectory and stays at sea it will stay strong, but again we will NOT be in the center with the highest sustained winds.
As to your last sentence, I am not one to like conflict. I am just stating facts.

Okay. Let's say Irma takes the "east trajectory" and stays at sea. Say, the eye is located 10 miles due west of Cape Canaveral. Orlando is only 55 miles west of the cape. Simple math - 65 miles from the eye, which means Orlando is in prime position to get hit by the worst storms and winds in the eyewall. How's that for a best-case scenario?

 

[AndreaA]

We were planning on flying in on Thursday and staying with family at Cocoa Beach until Sunday. Obviously they are evacuating (to Orlando), but have booked two additional nights (Fri-Sat) at the Contemporary and if projections continue to trend east, we will change our flight to Friday. At least we have bought ourselves some time to see what's going to happen. By tomorrow, Sunday will only be three days out which should make projections much more firm.

 

[Interpol]

Who cares if it is gathering strength if it is OUT AT SEA? Obviously we would all hope that it weakened again before hitting further up the coast, but regardless it wouldn't affect Orlando which is what this thread is supposed to be about.

Unless you're talking 500-1000 miles out, you'd better care. The hurricane itself is 400 miles in diameter. Do the math.

 

[MrInfinity]

This thread has the potential to be so useful... yet it's so not. People are rattling off useless posts faster than anyone is bothering to read them. Can we maybe keep this relevant to actual hurricane Irma info and how to deal with these sorts of things while at Disney World, and stop rattling each other about who's the better expert on storms or why someone else is stupid? Also I'd suggest not posting the charts because they are quickly obsolete and generally only support the viewpoint of the person choosing that particular chart to post.

Subscribing to this thread is not being helpful since my alert is lit up all the time but you'd think it should be lit up when there is some new development or relevant issue regarding Irma or Disney World practices related to Irma.

Suggestions from my POV... This storm may or may not affect Orlando. There is a definite probability here. It seems to be on the small side that it will close down WDW. Few storms have done so. This could be one of them, but again that would take the chips falling in a certain way. If that happens, and you go, be prepared to lose a day or two to indoor activities. If that bothers you or you would not be happy with that, then don't go. Even if it's only 10% likely that Irma will close down WDW, if that event happens and that'd be a deal-breaker for you, then just cancel. If you're okay with likely a very rainy week with many rides closed most of the time for these few days, and you could be happy if you get stuck in your room, then go. If your flight happens to arrive on Sun-Mon, plan on those being significantly delayed or cancelled. Before Sun or after Mon look pretty good.

Many airlines have not offered free changes/cancellations because there is no actual hurricane warning issued for Orlando. They won't do this until they know the hurricane will actually go thru here. Right now Orlando is in the 5-day estimate region which offers many possible outcomes. Many other airlines, tho not out of obligation due to policy, are extending good will change offers. Disney World seems to be doing the same. If you don't want to go, just call until you get past the busy signal, sit on hold for an hour, and cancel. I cannot imagine Disney will charge you anything for cancelling here. Party tickets will get refunded.

Be patient, rational and calm. Don't get your info from a post on a forum, go to noaa.gov or other official site and follow there.
On the bright side, we got our final "welcome" email from Disney... with their little weather forecast which shows simply some rainy days Sun-Mon and sunshine on Tue.

On another note, despite the worry which seems to be prevalent out here, I don't think a lot of people are cancelling. There is still little to no availability at most DVC resorts on the hurricane days.... which if people were going to cancel, many would have done so by now.

 

[flatlandcycle]

South Carolina Governor has just declared a state of emergency for the state!

Aren't these things mostly getting response teams in place, freeing up cash that was removed from state budgets.. It should be called something else. I vote for "Storm Prep Level 2" or "lower case (m)arshal Law"

"The governor has declared lower case (m)arshal Law, please head to the nearest Wal Mart for peanut butter."

 

[AndreaA]

Okay. Let's say Irma takes the "east trajectory" and stays at sea. Say, the eye is located 10 miles due west of Cape Canaveral. Orlando is only 55 miles west of the cape. Simple math - 65 miles from the eye, which means Orlando is in prime position to get hit by the worst storms and winds in the eyewall. How's that for a best-case scenario?

It would still be better than Orlando being on the east side of the storm of having the storm travel right overhead, thus slamming the city with two sides of the storm.

The further east the storm goes, the better. Not sure how that is complicated.

 

[KMC0426]

I'm staying hopeful. That's all I can do right now. We're scheduled to fly down on the 12th so hopefully we'll be in the clear and our flight isn't messed up.
Maybe I should find some Disney music like, "When you wish upon a star"...

 

[dreamseeker9]

The latest NHS projected track has Irma going along Florida's east coast. Port Canaveral is about 65 miles from WDW. So that puts WDW right on the edge of the hurricane's worst winds.

My parents live in Cape Coral (SW Florida). They decided to drive north yesterday, and I-75 was already heavy traffic. I was watching a SW Florida local news anchor at noon EST today discuss the trend of the hurricane shifting east today. He pointed out that the trend was more west yesterday, and that tomorrow, the trend could be back westward, or still eastward. Unfortunately, it's just impossible to know.

I'm going to WDW in October, and I know I would be devastated if we had to cancel our trip. Best wishes to everyone, and above all else, please be as prepared as possible for the worst, just in case, and stay safe.

One last thing - bottled water is great if the water supply becomes unreliable, but I echo what others have said about tap water - fill up whatever bottles and containers you have to drink tap water. Also fill up the bathtub, but that water isn't to drink, but to help with the toilets should sewers back up and flushing doesn't work. This happened in several homes in Harvey.

 

[yulilin3]

Okay. Let's say Irma takes the "east trajectory" and stays at sea. Say, the eye is located 10 miles due west of Cape Canaveral. Orlando is only 55 miles west of the cape. Simple math - 65 miles from the eye, which means Orlando is in prime position to get hit by the worst storms and winds in the eyewall. How's that for a best-case scenario?

I can see that you are in this conversation to win the conversation...this will be my last direct post to you.
All I am saying and have said all along is:
1) We don't know where the storm is going
2) If people have booked trips that they cannot rebook or still want to come regardless they should not feel like they are "endangering their lives" by doing so
3) Preparation and use of caution is good. It does save lives. Disney is probably one of the most prepared places to be during these type of storms

 

[LoveToGoToDisneyWorld]

We decided to cancel our 8th-20th stay this morning. The rep tried very hard to get us to reconsider, and also tried to get us to apply the money to a future stay instead of receiving the refund. I declined, obviously, but they're sure trying to hold onto those dollars. Anyway, for those who called and requested a refund: Did the agent say they had to submit your request through a form that another department will process later? The rep herself had no authority to do the canceling and refunding. I got off of the call without a reference number or any kind of reassurance that the refund will take place soon. Any similar experiences today for anyone else? Has anyone received an email confirming their cancelation?

 

[TXAKDisneyFan]

I'm also curious about the hoarding of supplies.

I was six months pregnant during a huge ice storm up here that had power out in large areas for literally weeks. I myself was without power for 11 days. Know what there was no shortage of within 12hrs after the storm passed? Food and water.

The hurricane, if it hits, is not going to last for days. It's going to last for hours. By the next day, cars and trucks should be able to be on the road (obviously I'm not talking about coastal areas which could flood, but middle of the state/Orlando) and stores will be full again.

I know it was unusual, but tell that to people in my state (Texas). A hurricane just sat over Houston for days.

 

[boatagor]

I just tried to reschedule our trip and they have no availability after our original check out date. If we push beyond that, we lose our free dining. I can't see adding that cost on to our vacation. So for right now we are watching and will decide whether to cancel or not later in the week. This is really upsetting. My kids are young and this is all they've been talking about for months. I feel like a jerk even worrying about that though, considering how many people will be losing their homes and potentially their lives. I'm trying to keep everything in perspective.

 

[GOOFY D]

I'm honestly curious why some people are so very set on presenting this all as a worst case scenario. "Please cancel!" "Don't come!" "Only a stupid person would head this way!" Etc., are pretty extreme statements. If you live in Florida then you should be done with your own preparedness planning. No one coming down and staying in a hotel is going to affect you - especially if you don't even live in Orlando. Guilt tripping people by talking about Disney employees is a straw man argument at best. There WILL be customers there regardless of whether or not every single member of the DIS cancels their trip, and there WILL be employees required. That's simply a fact.

Right now it does NOT look like the center of the storm will come close to Orlando. There will most certainly be winds and rain, but they won't last for days and days, and the cleanup from them won't last days and days, especially not for Disney which is not in a flood zone. Some people are willing to wait out a day or two in their hotel. The rest of the week looks clear and beautiful. All the doom and gloom really needs to stop.

Sorry, but I can only guess that with that statement, you have never been through a major hurricane. What do you consider "close?" This is not a small wind event. It is wind/rain/surge/tornadoes, etc. Power could be out for several days depending on the track and damage incurred. I see a lot of people suggesting that people should not worry because the eye may only skirt the coast of Florida. The eye is not the entire storm and paths have error margins. This is no small storm. It is a significant decision for someone to make to bring their families into an area that could be significantly affected.

 

[MEP5]

You would think for a friggen hurricane SW would be more understanding as to why we need to cancel. We arent canceling just bescause. Or better yet extend the date we can use our credit to when we departenot when I got our tickets. I'm getting punished bc I bought our tickets early I am sorry. This isn't a trip I'm not wanting to risk my family's life for. No matter how much we love and adore Disney

 

[Interpol]

Sorry, but I can only guess that with that statement, you have never been through a major hurricane. What do you consider "close?" This is not a small wind event. It is wind/rain/surge/tornadoes, etc. Power could be out for several days depending on the track and damage incurred. I see a lot of people suggesting that people should not worry because the eye may only skirt the coast of Florida. The eye is not the entire storm and paths have error margins. This is no small storm. It is a significant decision for someone to make to bring their families into an area that could be significantly affected.

Thank you for being a voice of reason here!

 

[yulilin3]

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[Rachel Underwood]

I know it was unusual, but tell that to people in my state (Texas). A hurricane just sat over Houston for days.

As of right now we fly out tomorrow through the 15th. We are still planning on going. Its my first time to CB. Is it motel style (Doors to outside)? Are there indoor activities at the resort? Would they be open if park were closed or would we be quarantined to our room?

*Prayers to anyone in the path. Whichever path they may be.*

 

[Jimmy Mouse]

We were planning on flying in on Thursday and staying with family at Cocoa Beach until Sunday. Obviously they are evacuating (to Orlando), but have booked two additional nights (Fri-Sat) at the Contemporary and if projections continue to trend east, we will change our flight to Friday. At least we have bought ourselves some time to see what's going to happen. By tomorrow, Sunday will only be three days out which should make projections much more firm.

we will see you at the Contemporary! staying from 9-7 to 9-17

 

[Dr B0b L0blaw]

This thread has the potential to be so useful... yet it's so not. People are rattling off useless posts faster than anyone is bothering to read them. Can we maybe keep this relevant to actual hurricane Irma info and how to deal with these sorts of things while at Disney World, and stop rattling each other about who's the better expert on storms or why someone else is stupid? Also I'd suggest not posting the charts because they are quickly obsolete and generally only support the viewpoint of the person choosing that particular chart to post.

Subscribing to this thread is not being helpful since my alert is lit up all the time but you'd think it should be lit up when there is some new development or relevant issue regarding Irma or Disney World practices related to Irma.

Suggestions from my POV... This storm may or may not affect Orlando. There is a definite probability here. It is on the small side that it will close down WDW. Few storms have done so. This could be one of them, but again that would take the chips falling in a certain way. If that happens, and you go, be prepared to lose a day or two to indoor activities. If that bothers you or you would not be happy with that, then don't go. Even if it's only 10% likely that Irma will close down WDW, if that event happens and that'd be a deal-breaker for you, then just cancel. If you're okay with likely a very rainy week with many rides closed most of the time for these few days, and you could be happy if you get stuck in your room, then go. If your flight happens to arrive on Sun-Mon, plan on those being significantly delayed or cancelled. Before Sun or after Mon look pretty good.

Many airlines have not offered free changes/cancellations because there is no actual hurricane warning issued for Orlando. They won't do this until they know the hurricane will actually go thru here. Right now Orlando is in the 5-day estimate region which offers many possible outcomes. Many other airlines, tho not out of obligation due to policy, are extending good will change offers. Disney World seems to be doing the same. If you don't want to go, just call until you get past the busy signal, sit on hold for an hour, and cancel. I cannot imagine Disney will charge you anything for cancelling here. Party tickets will get refunded.

Be patient folks, and most of all, be rational and calm. Don't get your info from a post on a forum, go to noaa.gov or other official site and follow there.
On the bright side, we got our final "welcome" email from Disney... with their little weather forecast which shows simply some rainy days Sun-Mon and sunshine on Tue.

On another note, despite the worry which seems to be prevalent out here, I don't think a lot of people are cancelling. There is still little to no availability at most DVC resorts on the hurricane days.... which if people were going to cancel, many would have done so by now.

Thank you for this. It's beyond frustrating that this thread has turned into a constant feud, mostly unrelated to plans regarding Disney. The simple fact of the matter is, nobody changes anyone's mind over the internet. If there is legitimate new information available or questions that can actually be answered, that's one thing. But to post countless times about why someone is an idiot for not canceling or is stupid for canceling so early is pointless. Let's keep this thread civil and helpful because goodness knows people don't need something else to get stressed about. Rant over!

I'm personally getting pumped for my Disney vacation from 9/9-9/15. Anyone else that makes the informed decision to be there, I look forward to seeing you and making the best out of what will hopefully be some empty, wet Disney parks!

 

[perditax]

I know it was unusual, but tell that to people in my state (Texas). A hurricane just sat over Houston for days.

There were specific systems in place keeping Harvey where it was for as long as it stayed, and it was forecast do to exactly that at least a couple of days ahead of time (although that fact may have escaped mainstream media coverage beforehand--I don't know because I can't deal with mainstream media anymore). As far as I know there's no similar setup for Irma, but I guess it could change.

Not a meteorologist, just a weather nerd, have no skin in the game.