If the closure is extended beyond 3/31, when do you think it will be announced?

[Pages26]

I think they will reopen may 2021 whether it is still Disney or owned someone else. This is here for 18 months. until vacine is ready everything needs to be shutdown to stop Millons of elderly and vulnerable dying. Those that say economys will be ruined are correct. A lot of companies will go bust but governments in all countries giving loans at moment to keep businesses afloat but as this shutdown keeps getting extended eventually a lot of companies will have such big loans they will effectively be state owned. I can't see many private companies outside of the bank, pharmaceutical and food sectors being left at end of this. I honestly think Disney shareholders will panic after few months and someone like Amazon might try to take it over.

 

[Thecouch]

As soon as numbers start declining and hospital say they can handle the numbers restrictions will start being lifted. You will probably see restriction for younger people lifted and elderly and sick to remain in quarantine. No way they waiting for a cure. If it went 18 months you would see more deaths from starvation and other things because of lock down then the virus

 

[mshanson3121]

CDC is never going to give an all-clear. Because it may never happen.

What they are trying to do is "flatten the curve" in other words slow the spread to a point where recoveries are equal or better than new infections AND make sure the hospitals aren't flooded. But that does NOT mean the virus has stopped spreading. It just means we will have done enough to prevent it from spreading beyond what we can keep up with. We may never reach a place where this virus is contained and no longer a threat. In fact there are some disease experts that think COVID-19 is now endemic. That means that it will never go away. It will keep coming back like the flu does every year. Some estimates are that over 60% of the world population is going to eventually be exposed over the next year no matter what we do. Hopefully, once we catch and defeat the virus, we become immune. If that is the case, then eventually we will improve as we gain herd immunity. But that will take years.

A vaccine will help tremendously especially for the elderly. But that's a long ways away. A vaccine is going to take a year to test and do trials even on its most accelerated track. And then it will take months to manufacture and distribute enough of it to make a difference.

So can Disney stay closed for 18+ months? Can restaurants and movie theaters? Can we not have school for 18 months? Can sports leagues not play for the next two years? And chances are even with all these precautions, most of us are going to eventually get sick from this virus. We've got some difficult days ahead.

I realize all of that. By "all clear", I meant that cases are low enough that CDC feels it's okay to re-open.

 

[kymom99]

As soon as numbers start declining and hospital say they can handle the numbers restrictions will start being lifted. You will probably see restriction for younger people lifted and elderly and sick to remain in quarantine. Now way they waiting for a cure. If it went 18 months you would see more deaths from starvation and other things because of lock down then the virus

This is my feeling. Once the numbers decline they can put the burden if you want to call it that on the people most at risk.

 

[Traveling on cc points]

I think they will reopen may 2021 whether it is still Disney or owned someone else. This is here for 18 months. until vacine is ready everything needs to be shutdown to stop Millons of elderly and vulnerable dying. Those that say economys will be ruined are correct. A lot of companies will go bust but governments in all countries giving loans at moment to keep businesses afloat but as this shutdown keeps getting extended eventually a lot of companies will have such big loans they will effectively be state owned. I can't see many private companies outside of the bank, pharmaceutical and food sectors being left at end of this. I honestly think Disney shareholders will panic after few months and someone like Amazon might try to take it over.

I hope I am misreading what you meant here, if not this is one of the craziest comments I have read yet. You can’t possibly be advocating for all businesses to stay closed for 18 months right? In this scenario, where are most of the country going to quarantine when they are homeless?

 

[only hope]

No way is the entire world going to be shut down til a vaccine is found to be effective and made available. China is starting to reopen things and its been a few months. If the world shuts down til there is a vaccine available, the governments would run out of ways to provide loans. That money has to come from somewhere. If most of the economy is shut down, there's not much money to go around. The loss of income, jobs, housing, etc would have a generational effect that this country can't afford. It's already hard enough for lower income people to move up the income ladder.

When WDW does reopen, I wouldn't think it is to resort guests first. If anything, I think resorts would open a few days later. With the parks having been shut for months and likely a fair amount of new CM, it'd be better for the initial crowd to be mostly locals whose expensive vacation won't be ruined if things aren't running smoothly at first. We may see Disney Springs open before the parks, like what Shanghai has done.

 

[Remy is Up]

Something I', very curious about if this DOES extend into June/July.... how will that effect all of the reservations that booked with free dining? Are they just SOL? Only available to rebook on the existing dates? How will this get handled?

It will be the last thing people will be thinking about

 

[1lilspark]

FWIW:
Schools in Polk (if not statewide) are now closed till at least April 20th (it was Till Mar 30th)
And a local art festival/run Mother’s Day weekend was postponed indefinitely

 

[PetePanMan]

This is clearly a problem and one we need to take swift action to prevent from getting out of control, but let's remember that the CDC has estimated that at least 12,000 people have died from influenza between Oct. 1, 2019 and Feb. 1, 2020 in the U.S. alone, and the number of deaths may be as high as 30,000. And we have a vaccine for influenza, and this happens every year, and we don't stop anything for it.

Despite economic and other impacts, a huge number of Country’s around the world think these kind of actions (eg border closures, flight restrictions, closure of all non- essential business, closure of schools etc.) are critical. Unfortunately no Nation will be immune to what is coming.

 

[Capang]

China is starting to recover. Things are beginning to reopen, including Shanghai Disney. They were closed what, 3 or 4 months? I imagine that any reopening is heavily dependent on how well us as citizens heed warnings to self quarantine, shelter in place, and only go out as necessary. I'm about 50/50 on my July trip, but if I need to reschedule so be it.

Right now most states do not have access to tests so the spread is unknown in many areas. Some people are not taking this seriously and continuing to live life as normal. These are a few thing that have to be dealt with before anyone can accurately predict how long before we can see some kind of normalcy again. Where I live the local hospitals had permission to create their own tests and they began testing this weekend. It was all drive thru, and lines were LONG. People had to have a doctor's order to be tested and something like over 700 people were tested this weekend. Most states don't have that yet, so there is no idea how far this has spread.

 

[rkstocke5609]

I think they will reopen may 2021 whether it is still Disney or owned someone else. This is here for 18 months. until vacine is ready everything needs to be shutdown to stop Millons of elderly and vulnerable dying. Those that say economys will be ruined are correct. A lot of companies will go bust but governments in all countries giving loans at moment to keep businesses afloat but as this shutdown keeps getting extended eventually a lot of companies will have such big loans they will effectively be state owned. I can't see many private companies outside of the bank, pharmaceutical and food sectors being left at end of this. I honestly think Disney shareholders will panic after few months and someone like Amazon might try to take it over.

Somebody call Art Bell back from the great beyond!!! I think we have someone that witnessed the Roswell crash! If this prediction comes to pass the civil unrest will kill far more people than Corona / COVID-19 or whatever you want to call it will.

 

[DisSurfer878]

It will be the last thing people will be thinking about

I disagree. I know a lot of visitors who only book on free dining dates year after year. This will definitely be on their minds and impact their decisions on rebooking.

 

[OSUZorba]

I hope so, it won't be for at least a year though. The immunity will take a while to build up and then again it can mutate. The smallpox virus was deadly for centuries and we never really built up a natural immunity against it, it was only eradicated after almost everyone on the planet was immunized against it. Could be the same with this disease, I hope not. But the theme parks won't reopen anytime soon, I'm afraid.

Comparing this to small pox is really getting into the hysteria levels. Small pox was very contagious and extremely deadly. Even so, Europeans did build a tolerance to it (not complete) and used it as a bioweapon on native peoples across the world.

 

[OSUZorba]

Latest estimates are 18 months for a vaccine. They injected the first human trial today, looking for 45 more volunteers in Seattle, but said in the article they will need to be followed for 12 months to gauge safety and effectiveness etc.... Then of course will take more time for next steps, production etc...

I believe the first real readout will be in 3 months. From what I've been reading Phase 2 will start pretty quickly after that. Phase 1 was moved up by about 5 weeks, doubled in size, and moved to the biggest hot spot in the US. I think they are doing everything they can to get some "phase 2ish" data during this phase.

A vaccine will help tremendously especially for the elderly. But that's a long ways away. A vaccine is going to take a year to test and do trials even on its most accelerated track. And then it will take months to manufacture and distribute enough of it to make a difference.

The vaccine candidate that started testing yesterday, mRNA-1273, can be made is massive quantities very quickly. Since it is a mRNA it can be directly manufactured, you don't have to grow it. Moderna the manufacturer has said they could have millions of doses ready by this summer. The major Pharma companies have also said they will manufacturer any successful vaccine.

Of course, this only matters if it actually works.

 

[OSUZorba]

Most states don't have that yet, so there is no idea how far this has spread.

The paradox is this: The more widespread it is without us knowing about it, the less deadly and impactful it is, since if you show up at the ICU today you will get tested. So on the one hand it would be a "good sign" if it was much more widespread than known. On the other hand, it makes it that much harder to control.

 

[Animal]

The paradox is this: The more widespread it is without us knowing about it, the less deadly and impactful it is, since if you show up at the ICU today you will get tested. So on the one hand it would be a "good sign" if it was much more widespread than known. On the other hand, it makes it that much harder to control.

Excellent point. We don't really know if the fatality rate is .5%, 1%, or 2% because there are an unknown number of infected folks walking around who will never know they have it!

 

[Timothy02359]

I`m betting the closure extends into summer.

 

[disneygirl777]

I think they will reopen may 2021 whether it is still Disney or owned someone else. This is here for 18 months. until vacine is ready everything needs to be shutdown to stop Millons of elderly and vulnerable dying. Those that say economys will be ruined are correct. A lot of companies will go bust but governments in all countries giving loans at moment to keep businesses afloat but as this shutdown keeps getting extended eventually a lot of companies will have such big loans they will effectively be state owned. I can't see many private companies outside of the bank, pharmaceutical and food sectors being left at end of this. I honestly think Disney shareholders will panic after few months and someone like Amazon might try to take it over.

I’m sorry but you have to be kidding. You do realize that there will be anarchy and unrest if this goes on longer than a few months? You absolutely cannot lock down for a year and a half, it’s not feasible and even if it were nobody is going to stand for that. You cannot lock a country up for that long, there would be a massive civil war and rebellion. It’s irresponsible to go around spouting this stuff and this is part of the reason the hysteria is getting to be outrageous. It goes from evaluating every 2 weeks to someone pulling July/August out randomly to people saying 12-18 months. There is no basis to think this and it’s not in anyone’s best interest to spout this nonsense. If I wasn’t rolling my eyes so hard I’d be laughing right now.

As far as Disney, I’ll amend my original statement of Memorial Day being the latest. I’m thinking late June/early July at the latest. If we do a good job flattening this and hospitals are finding they’re handling it well, I can see it being way sooner. The 8 week gathering restriction is telling, they threw out a pretty specific number with that, which is much more telling than just saying “we’ll reevaluate every 2 weeks” like they’ve done with the restaurant thing. While that may change, I feel that by that time in May we’ll know if our tactics have worked. If they haven’t, at that point it’s a bit too late. We’re restricting things now because we can change things now, after a certain point no more change will happen and I feel like in May they’ll have a pretty good idea and go from there. Either we’ll have done a good job and it won’t be a big issue or we won’t have and at that point it’ll be about learning how to live with this in our rotation until a vaccine. We live in a country where our citizens are used to having a certain level of freedoms and nobody is going to stand for those being taken away for too terribly long. Companies will start operating again and things will open back up whether state govts release mandates or the people come together to protest and make it happen. Disney will be cautious but I have a feeling they’ll be opening as soon as the gathering recommendations and state mandates are lifted, which in my opinion won’t be later than June/July because people just aren’t going to live like this for any longer than that. Just my opinion

 

[JordanClark9]

I'm guessing re-openings beginning late May with an extension announcement called late next week. Nobody knows what is going to happen right now and companies are literally taking this one day at a time.

 

[jerry557]

Economically, the world can't stay closed down for 18 months. You would have massive supply chain disruptions. Massive layoffs. Most economies would not be able to weather that. People would literally be running out of food and may even have famines in some parts of the world. You'd be getting into the situation where the cure is worse than the disease.

We may get to a point where the spread is more manageable and we can get by with increased sanitation protocols. And people who are elderly and high risk may end up being the ones that have to do more quarantine than everyone else until a vaccine is available. Keep in mind there is also the flu out there. 22,000 Americans have already died this year due to seasonal Influenza. COVID19 is more deadlier than the flu. Yes. But I'm just pointing out the idea that a virus is killing Americans is not new. Happens every year.