If the flattening isn't working is it time to face reality?

[Hikergirl]

Free Dictionary:
Also found in: Thesaurus, Encyclopedia, Wikipedia.
hyperbole
an exaggeration used as a figure of speech: That dog’s so ugly its face could stop a clock.
Not to be confused with:
hyperbola – a plane curve having two branches
Abused, Confused, & Misused Words by Mary Embree Copyright © 2007, 2013 by Mary Embree
hy·per·bo·le
(hī-pûr′bə-lē)
n.
A figure of speech in which exaggeration is used for emphasis or effect, as in I could sleep for a year or This book weighs a ton.

[Latin hyperbolē, from Greek huperbolē, excess, from huperballein, to exceed : huper, beyond; see hyper- + ballein, to throw; see gwelə- in Indo-European roots.]
American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fifth Edition. Copyright © 2016 by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company. Published by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company. All rights reserved.
hyperbole
(haɪˈpɜːbəlɪ)
n
(Rhetoric) a deliberate exaggeration used for effect: he embraced her a thousand times.
[C16: from Greek: from hyper- + bolē a throw, from ballein to throw]
hyˈperbolism n
Collins English Dictionary – Complete and Unabridged, 12th Edition 2014 © HarperCollins Publishers 1991, 1994, 1998, 2000, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2014
hy•per•bo•le
(haɪˈpɜr bə li)

n., pl. -les.
1. obvious and intentional exaggeration.
2. an extravagant statement or figure of speech not intended to be taken literally, as “to wait an eternity.” Compare litotes.
[1520–30; < Greek hyperbolḗ overshooting, excess, n. derivative of hyperbállein to throw beyond, exceed =hyper- hyper- + bállein to throw]
Random House Kernerman Webster's College Dictionary, © 2010 K Dictionaries Ltd. Copyright 2005, 1997, 1991 by Random House, Inc. All rights reserved.
hyperbole
1. an obvious and intentional exaggeration.
2. an extravagant statement or figure of speech not intended to be taken literally, as “She’s as big as a house.” Cf. litotes. — hyperbolic, adj.
See also: Rhetoric and Rhetorical Devices
-Ologies & -Isms. Copyright 2008 The Gale Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
hyperbole
1. The deliberate use of exaggeration in order to create an effect.
2. Use of exaggeration for emphasis.
Dictionary of Unfamiliar Words by Diagram Group Copyright © 2008 by Diagram Visual Information Limited

Wow, that is an amazing use of copy and paste.

 

[hopemax]

But we aren't doing that even during this shelter in place.
People are still going out.

The entire city of NYC (or NY or the US) is not failing to social distance.

The charts that are out there, show the differences in numbers with no social distancing, 25, 50, 75% of people engage in social distancing. Not one of the charts predicts 100% compliance. Of course, the local officials are going to continue to beat the drum to get as many people to stay at home. The goal is to get the number as close to the 25% line as possible, but it was never going to be EVERYONE. And the fact that it's not everyone is not an excuse to chose the "no social distancing" path.

 

[gotomu212]

People need to make up their mind... do they want people to stay home or it's ok to go out (grocery shoppping)?

There’s a huge difference in one member of my family going once a week for a 30 minute grocery shopping trip, and all 4 of us going to work/school 8 hours a day with 500 of our coworkers/co-students and riding on trains and buses and then sitting in concerts.

 

[Hikergirl]

The entire city of NYC (or NY or the US) is not failing to social distance.

The charts that are out there, show the differences in numbers with no social distancing, 25, 50, 75% of people engage in social distancing. Not one of the charts predicts 100% compliance. Of course, the local officials are going to continue to beat the drum to get as many people to stay at home. The goal is to get the number as close to the 25% line as possible, but it was never going to be EVERYONE. And the fact that it's not everyone is not an excuse to chose the "no social distancing" path.

Ok, there is where you lost me I'm not advocating that at all.
I'm advocating looking at whether or not what we are doing now (and have been the last 10-14 days) is helping to slow the spread. And if it isn't, would relaxing some restrictions make that much a difference. in the spread.
Maybe it's because I drive to the gas station and see the liquor store and Home Depot parking lots FULL on the day after the shelter in place order took effect.
Maybe it's because dh- who is non-essential to the Pandemic is allowed to go to work along with 200 other people in his building.
Maybe it's because mass transit is running and people are still riding it.
Maybe it's because an employee at a local grocery store just tested positive and I have seen how crazy the stores have been.
That is why I have that question.

 

[RamblingMad]

Nah, I'm more of a free market kinda guy. I'm not playing along. But any way you slice it, it still ain't free. Sorry.

GS expects 5 million people to have filed for unemployment this week. Those people won’t have healthcare. This is a big problem.

Who is paying for the helicopter money?

 

[Jrb1979]

I live in the NYC metro area. When schools closed, kids were roaming around in large groups, playgrounds were packed, athletic fields and basketball courts were packed (with ds17 an active participant, which he was punished for). Parents were hosting parties and play dates.

It‘s much different today, there is police tape around the parks, I’m no longer the mean mom as more and more parents take this seriously. I’m not seeing angry Facebook posts from people in town furious that folks aren’t following the rules. I see people walking down my street with no more than 2 adults in the group. It took more than a solid week for people to take this seriously.

That is why unfortunately the government had to shut things down. It upsets me to see how much our government has to babysit us. I have said it many times if we followed what they suggested from the start with social distancing and avoiding large groups we wouldn't have to go to this extent.

 

[hopemax]

Ok, there is where you lost me I'm not advocating that at all.

But the question in the OP is, so I am mentioning it.

 

[Party.Of.4-NY>>>FL]

They need to build coronavirus treatment hospitals and deal with it that way. Probably why they are retrofitting convention centers and stadiums. Not pretty but we cannot shut down the economy because x% of 80 year olds succumb. Hard truth.

It’s not just 80 year-olds that are dying. Hard truth.

I see you mentioned in a subsequent post that you work in NYC, so I’m reasonably confident you already knew this.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cb...dezann-romain-among-nycs-125-deaths-brooklyn/

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

He is right - it can't "slow" yet because people were still actively spreading this without knowing it until they were forced to stop.

But those people who are already infected but do not know it yet - they will start to become symptomatic over the next 2 weeks, so the number of reported cases will keep going up, until we hit that window when the quarantining has been in place long enough to prove effective (or not).

Our stay at home order here is primarily aimed at the businesses that were still operating (as we all already had other restrictions in place too) but probably shouldn't have been or they were holding off..it was more or less a means of saying "time's up you gotta shut down". Yes it sure is possible for the individuals to get fined though enforcement is up to LEO. You are, as an individual, still expected to adhere to all that is set forth in the document put out of course. The documents between the counties and city for one of the ones part of the stay at home order do vary so one needs to look up specifics for their own area. For my county I forget the info but there's a number we can call if we suspect a business is operating illegally or is not adhering to proper social distancing measures.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

You can go buy food, that’s it. Shelves are restocked. My friend recently got a job stocking shelves.

Maybe where you live but here it's pretty slim pickings. I live in the same metro as mom2rtk though she lives on the other side of the state line. Our grocery stores and the like haven't had real time to stock up fully. Oh they'll get things here and there (went to a Walmart on the other side of the state line a few days ago and they had bread though it was mostly Wonder Bread and they had just gotten toilet paper though it was all gone basically when I got there maybe under 10 packages left, I saw them in basically everyone's cart but just about everything else was gone gone gone, was able to get some beef broth though).

The main reason is they've enacted measure after measure in quick succession. By the time they announced a state of emergency and no gatherings of 250 on my side of the state line people started a mad dash to the grocery stores, then it was less than 50..there goes another mad dash to the grocery stores, then schools closing down another mad dash, then dine-in ban another mad dash, then the 15-day less than 10 people announced by the Federal government another mad dash, and most recently over the weekend the 30-day stay at home order which created another mad dash and to be honest I may have things slightly out of order because I can't keep track.

The stores have been trying to restock overnight adjusting their hours so they could but they kept announcing things so quickly there's not enough time in between. Each new announcement caused people to do this or that and TBH understandably so for most of the announcements.

I anticipate 2 1/2-3 weeks starting today before there's a bit more stock in my area but that's a pure guess. That's if no new announcement is made. We're in a 30-day stay at home which at least provides a sense of projected timeline versus an unknown. But a caveat out there is under the stay at home stores (at least in my county haven't read the other notices for the other areas under this) have to provide an hour for those considered high risk which is great but if the stock is restocked overnight those considered higher risk could wipe out the shelves again before others are realistically able to get there. But that's more of a wait and see thing.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

If unsure, maybe it’s good to just listen to the scientists and healthcare professionals.

Not every scientist or healthcare professional agrees on this much like many other professions and like so many other things out there. Additionally no one knows if this is really truly working. It's something so new to us, something on such a large scale, we're basically just winging it. I think all have basis for their information it's just there's not a definitive "we do this and we're guaranteed to have this". We're trying to hit it with a hammer but we're not sure if that's the right way to go about it.

It's ok by the way to admit this..that we aren't sure. It's going to be important that we figure out what worked and didn't work as well as an educated guess if the timeline if this comes around next (which we aren't sure if it's going to be a seasonal thing or not though I believe the running idea is that it will be) as this will allow us to be better prepared.

 

[Deploraboo]

Ok. 80 year olds and one 36 year old. Let’s all self immolate.

 

[AggieDizzer]

The fatality rate for 30-39 year old is almost negligible. From the CDC:



I say "almost". Tragically , there are cases in which fatalities occur in nearly all age groups. But in 36 year olds, they are the extreme outliers.

 

[Heather07438]

The entire city of NYC (or NY or the US) is not failing to social distance.

The charts that are out there, show the differences in numbers with no social distancing, 25, 50, 75% of people engage in social distancing. Not one of the charts predicts 100% compliance. Of course, the local officials are going to continue to beat the drum to get as many people to stay at home. The goal is to get the number as close to the 25% line as possible, but it was never going to be EVERYONE. And the fact that it's not everyone is not an excuse to chose the "no social distancing" path.

My area has started pulling a few people over to see where they are going and if they really need to be out.

Doesn't look like they're issuing tickets or anything yet, probably more just putting procedures in place to get everyone used to it before it becomes absolutely crucial. I'd say most activity and traffic is down by 75% in northeastern NJ.

 

[godisney14]

The fatality rate for 30-39 year old is almost negligible. From the CDC:

View attachment 483198

I say "almost". Tragically , there are cases in which fatalities occur in nearly all age groups. But in 36 year olds, they are the extreme outliers.

For a more complete assessment, I wish the website also showed charts of morbidity and comorbidity breakdown by age. And if that’s from the CDC, curious why US is left out of that chart.

 

[Notrealname]

My daughter is a Pharmacist in Virginia. She has people coming in droves wanting to get the vaccine for the Coronavirus (and she explains that there is no such thing but these people heard a rumor that there is a vaccine available) or even to the point of asking her to call their doctor to have him order the malaria drug and Z pack for them. What amazes her is that these same people actually refuse the annual flu shot (that she suggests that everyone gets) because they don't trust the vaccine yet they are willing to inject a coronavirus vaccine (if there was one) that has not even been developed or tested into their arms. She is just amazed at this!

DD is also a Pharmer. To preserve supplies for her lupus patients, she is out of the antimalarial. Then she asks those drug seekers to step back from the counter and asks them about symptoms. Not surprisingly, no symptoms. Covidiots are coming in with scrips for their entire family . . . all asymptomatic.

 

[Notrealname]

Maybe where you live but here it's pretty slim pickings. I live in the same metro as mom2rtk though she lives on the other side of the state line. Our grocery stores and the like haven't had real time to stock up fully. Oh they'll get things here and there (went to a Walmart on the other side of the state line a few days ago and they had bread though it was mostly Wonder Bread and they had just gotten toilet paper though it was all gone basically when I got there maybe under 10 packages left, I saw them in basically everyone's cart but just about everything else was gone gone gone, was able to get some beef broth though).

The main reason is they've enacted measure after measure in quick succession. By the time they announced a state of emergency and no gatherings of 250 on my side of the state line people started a mad dash to the grocery stores, then it was less than 50..there goes another mad dash to the grocery stores, then schools closing down another mad dash, then dine-in ban another mad dash, then the 15-day less than 10 people announced by the Federal government another mad dash, and most recently over the weekend the 30-day stay at home order which created another mad dash and to be honest I may have things slightly out of order because I can't keep track.

The stores have been trying to restock overnight adjusting their hours so they could but they kept announcing things so quickly there's not enough time in between. Each new announcement caused people to do this or that and TBH understandably so for most of the announcements.

I anticipate 2 1/2-3 weeks starting today before there's a bit more stock in my area but that's a pure guess. That's if no new announcement is made. We're in a 30-day stay at home which at least provides a sense of projected timeline versus an unknown. But a caveat out there is under the stay at home stores (at least in my county haven't read the other notices for the other areas under this) have to provide an hour for those considered high risk which is great but if the stock is restocked overnight those considered higher risk could wipe out the shelves again before others are realistically able to get there. But that's more of a wait and see thing.

Heck, you guys aren’t in the hot zone. Here in NJ (#2 on the infection list) stores have stock. We do on-line shopping as we are still self quarantining. The things we have been unable to get are actually available, but they aren’t substituting. Order Yukon Gold Potatoes( we have to be that specific) they are out and they won’t substitute the potatoes they do have in stock.

 

[okeydokey]

Ok, there is where you lost me I'm not advocating that at all.
I'm advocating looking at whether or not what we are doing now (and have been the last 10-14 days) is helping to slow the spread. And if it isn't, would relaxing some restrictions make that much a difference. in the spread.
Maybe it's because I drive to the gas station and see the liquor store and Home Depot parking lots FULL on the day after the shelter in place order took effect.
Maybe it's because dh- who is non-essential to the Pandemic is allowed to go to work along with 200 other people in his building.
Maybe it's because mass transit is running and people are still riding it.
Maybe it's because an employee at a local grocery store just tested positive and I have seen how crazy the stores have been.
That is why I have that question.

Since we can't run two simulations (doing what we are doing now and doing something else) we will have to trust the experts in Public Health and EM and do what they say.

I am frustrated that my local stores are busy too, but we need to keep getting the word out there. All the research shows that social distancing and testing are keys to getting this under control.

I think letting millions of people die will have a negative effect on everything, including the economy. I am not willing to sacrifice people so CEOs can get their bonuses. And I would rather live on what I can than have my family get sick and die.

 

[godisney14]

Not every scientist or healthcare professional agrees on this much like many other professions and like so many other things out there. Additionally no one knows if this is really truly working. It's something so new to us, something on such a large scale, we're basically just winging it. I think all have basis for their information it's just there's not a definitive "we do this and we're guaranteed to have this". We're trying to hit it with a hammer but we're not sure if that's the right way to go about it.

My previous post may have been able to save you the time from posting this because I specifically wrote there is never 100% agreement.

There’s a saying in management, “If two people agree all the time on every discussion, then one is dispensable.”

Doing what we are doing is the logical choice right now for the moment. Theoretically, you make the vector static, then the pathogen dies off. This was already proven in a small town in Italy. And what China did to Wuhan. Obviously, it’s harder on a larger scale (as we are seeing) unless and there needs to be 100% buy in (or enforcement).

The way I see it is, to avoid a V-shape, we’re going to have to do a shutdown until we see a sustained reduction in incidence. One week of continuous decreasing incidence will provide confidence that we can conduct a controlled relaxing of restrictions. May seem arbitrary, but one week is sufficient to show that any unexpected drop is not due to testing capacity limitations. Also, a week gives us a better idea of how much hospitalization is to be expected since the inpatient count lags the new case count by about a week.

Right now, our incidence is growing unabated. So, it’s hard to tell when we can turn the faucet back on slowly. Otherwise, we’d be in a world of trouble as it stands. So, realistically, no one can say whether we loosen restrictions in 2 weeks, 3, 4, 5, 2 months, or longer.

Maybe someone who’s able to speak Corona language can ask Sarscov when it plans to go into hibernation.

 

[dish rag]

Since we can't run two simulations (doing what we are doing now and doing something else) we will have to trust the experts in Public Health and EM and do what they say.

I am frustrated that my local stores are busy too, but we need to keep getting the word out there. All the research shows that social distancing and testing are keys to getting this under control.

I think letting millions of people die will have a negative effect on everything, including the economy. I am not willing to sacrifice people so CEOs can get their bonuses. And I would rather live on what I can than have my family get sick and die.

How many millions are you predicting will die from this?